IRI Ukraine Survey: September 2013

1

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization

Rating Group Ukraine

with funding from the United States Agency for

International Development

Public Opinion Survey

Residents of Ukraine

August 27-September 9, 2013

2

Methodology The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.

The main sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.

Data were collected on August 27 – September 9, 2013 through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. The

margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. The response rate was 64 percent.

The sample design was a multi-stage random sample. The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the

respondent. The households were selected using the random route method.

• Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine, Kiev and Sevastopol).

All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.

• Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of

selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the

settlement in each region. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size:

• City more than one million residents

• City 500,000-999,000

• City 100,000-499,000

• City 50,000-99,000

• City to 50,000

• Village

• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013

3

MOOD OF UKRAINE


4

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction

or wrong direction?

13%

24%

15%

15%

71%

73%

66%

58%

69%

67%

16%

14%

20%

18%

16%

18%

13%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA


5

Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household

changed?

1%

0.2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

6%

6%

9%

14%

8%

9%

37%

39%

45%

37%

46%

41%

36%

34%

30%

27%

30%

30%

18%

18%

13%

15%

14%

17%

2%

2%

3%

5%

1%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA


6

In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine

to change?

1%

2%

0.4%

2%

1%

1%

12%

8%

17%

13%

8%

7%

27%

38%

31%

35%

32%

30%

29%

29%

24%

26%

32%

32%

17%

12%

11%

11%

15%

17% 13%

13%

12%

16%

14%

12%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nov 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot DK/NA


7

ISSUES


8

Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following

methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?

69%

76%

64%

51%

35%

32%

24%

16%

22%

27%

35%

50%

53%

55%

62%

8%

9%

9%

14%

11%

12%

13%

14%

Collecting signatures for

petition, letter

Legal demonstrations

Legal strikes

Boycott

Demonstrations without

permission

Strikes without permission

Blocking of major roads

Occupation of buildings or

enterprises

Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA

34%


9

Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following

methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?

May 2013

17%

23%

24%

73%

64%

54%

48%

28%

71%

66%

63%

60%

40%

38%

29%

18%

12%

11%

13%

11%

12%

8%

7%

8%Collecting signatures for

petition, letter

Legal demonstrations

Legal strikes

Boycott

Demonstrations without

permission

Strikes without permission

Blocking of major roads

Occupation of buildings or

enterprises

Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA


10

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, with whom

should it be?

42%

36%

37%

32%

40%

42%

40%

43%

41%

42%

37%

37%

3%

4%

5%

6%

5%

5%

15%

17%

17%

20%

18%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA


11

What is your expectation, will Ukraine and the European Union sign the Association

Agreement in November 2013?

Definitely yes

9%

Probably yes

30%

Definitely no

9%

DK/NA

26%

Probably no

26%


12

Which side will benefit more from the possible integration of Ukraine to the European

Union?

Ukraine

17%

European Union

26%

It is disadvantageous for

both sides

8%

DK/NA

19%

It is beneficial for both

sides

30%


13

Which side will benefit more from the possible integration of Ukraine to the Customs

Union with Russia?

Ukraine

8%

Russia

34%

It is disadvantageous for

both sides

2%

DK/NA

16%

It is beneficial for both

sides

40%


14

If signed in November 2013, do you think the Association Agreement with the European

Union will have positive or negative consequences for Ukraine?

Definitely positive

12%

Somewhat positive

35%

Definitely negative

9%

DK/NA

23%

Somewhat negative

21%


15

What possible consequences will the signing of the Association Agreement between

Ukraine and the European Union have for Ukraine in these particular areas?

31%

20%

18%

16%

15%

14%

39%

37%

30%

33%

34%

35%

8%

16%

21%

16%

18%

21%

3%

6%

8%

6%

7%

10%

19%

21%

23%

29%

26%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Freedom of movement in the European Union for

Ukrainian citizens

Protection of human rights and freedoms

Standard of living of citizens

Fight against corruption

Protection of territorial integrity of Ukraine

Economic development

Definitely positive Rather positive Rather negative Definitely negative DK/NA


16

How would you evaluate your attitude towards the following entities?

26%

40%

41%

50%

54%

49%

45%

32%

16%

7%

8%

15%

4%

4%

6%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

European Union

Poland

United States

Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA


17

Which of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine?

(Three mentioned issues)

1%

3%

1%

2%

5%

6%

7%

10%

10%

14%

15%

17%

30%

35%

42%

44%

55%Unemployment

Low industry production

Corruption within the state bodies

Control over price growth

Social protection for poor

Government incompetence

Crime

Political instability

Delay in salary/Pension payments

Relations with Russia

Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Hryvnia devaluation

Rights to land ownership

Russian language status

Russian Black Sea Navy presence

Other

DK/NA


18

18-29 years 50 years

and older 30-49 years


(Three mentioned issues, by gender and age)

Male Female

54%

48%

47%

29%

24%

18%

17%

16%

10%

11%

5%

6%

6%

1%

1%

2%

1%

56%

41%

37%

39%

35%

16%

13%

13%

11%

9%

8%

6%

5%

3%

2%

4%

1%

62%

43%

44%

34%

21%

19%

19%

16%

10%

9%

7%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

0%

61%

49%

42%

31%

24%

20%

13%

15%

9%

10%

5%

8%

5%

2%

2%

2%

0%

47%

40%

40%

39%

40%

13%

14%

12%

12%

10%

7%

5%

6%

2%

1%

4%

2%

Unemployment






Crime





Hryvnia devaluation




Other

DK/NA


19

East South


(Three mentioned issues, by region)

West Center


71%

37%

52%

35%

28%

19%

11%

12%

9%

4%

3%

6%

4%

1%

0%

1%

2%

47%

47%

43%

29%

30%

17%

23%

17%

10%

8%

10%

6%

6%

1%

1%

1%

1%

65%

57%

32%

34%

40%

20%

11%

7%

9%

10%

1%

3%

3%

3%

1%

1%

0%

45%

37%

39%

41%

26%

12%

11%

17%

14%

15%

9%

8%

8%

5%

3%

8%

1%

Unemployment






Crime





Hryvnia devaluation




Other

DK/NA

20

52% 54% 54%

50%53% 55%51%

44%

39%

48%

37%

42%

44%40%

42%

43%

43% 45%39%

26%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May-13 Sept-13

Unemployment Corruption within the state bodies

Low industry production Control over price growth

What are the most important problems facing Ukraine?

(Top four issues identified)


21

Which of the following issues are the most important for you personally?

(Three mentioned issues)

2%

6%

1%

4%

5%

6%

6%

8%

8%

12%

13%

20%

23%

25%

40%

51%

58%Control over price growth

Unemployment





Crime

Hryvnia devaluation








Other

DK/NA


22

18-29 years 50 years

and older 30-49 years


(Three mentioned issues, by gender and age)

Male Female


52%

51%

35%

29%

26%

21%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

8%

6%

3%

1%

4%

3%

64%

51%

45%

22%

21%

19%

12%

11%

6%

9%

5%

5%

5%

5%

1%

7%

1%

52%

65%

28%

30%

25%

18%

14%

15%

8%

6%

6%

4%

3%

4%

0%

5%

2%

57%

62%

31%

26%

29%

17%

14%

13%

7%

7%

6%

4%

6%

4%

1%

5%

2%

63%

34%

55%

22%

18%

22%

12%

9%

9%

10%

5%

10%

5%

4%

1%

6%

2%


Unemployment





Crime

Hryvnia devaluation








Other

DK/NA

23

East South


(Three mentioned issues, by region)

West Center


62%

63%

35%

26%

16%

18%

10%

20%

10%

4%

6%

2%

5%

3%

0%

1%

2%

53%

57%

50%

25%

19%

24%

19%

9%

7%

13%

5%

4%

5%

1%

1%

1%

2%

57%

55%

47%

22%

39%

12%

12%

4%

10%

2%

3%

9%

4%

4%

0%

2%

2%

63%

32%

30%

27%

22%

22%

10%

13%

6%

11%

7%

10%

6%

8%

1%

17%

2%


Unemployment





Crime

Hryvnia devaluation








Other

DK/NA

24

58%54%54%

59%57%56%

51%50%51%

49%51%

46%

37%39%

36%34%41% 40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May-13 Sept-13

Control over price growth Unemployment Social protection for poor

What are the most important problems facing residents of Ukraine?

(Top three issues identified)


25

POLITICS


26

If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such

elections?

33%

34%

36%

34%

8%

7%

19%

20%

4%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

May 2013

September 2013

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA


27

If Ukrainian presidential elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such

elections?

38%

38%

36%

32%

5%

7%

17%

17%

4%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

May 2013

September 2013

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA


28

Do you feel that the next presidential election will be free and fair?

Absolutely

free and fair

2%

Rather free and fair

17%

Rather not free and

fair

39%

Absolutely not free

and fair

26%

DK/NA

16%


29

In the past two years, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened?

74%

59%

59%

54%

50%

50%

49%

49%

47%

47%

45%

44%

43%

35%

34%

30%

17%

17%

21%

29%

31%

30%

35%

30%

34%

40%

31%

35%

38%

38%

28%

37%

51%

53%

43%

60%

3%

7%

6%

13%

8%

12%

10%

5%

8%

12%

13%

8%

5%

6%

9%

14%

21%

13%

2%

6%

4%

3%

7%

8%

7%

6%

14%

6%

4%

10%

23%

22%

6%

3%

19%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Prices

Employment

Healthcare

Economy of Ukraine

Fight against corruption


Government competence

Housing and communal services

Agriculture

Political stability

Social protection

Fight against criminality

Small and medium business


Stability of hryvnia

Salary/Pension payments

European integration of Ukraine

Situation with languages

Worsened Stayed the same Improved DK/NA


30

How many times per week do you access the Internet?

19%

25%

24%

19%

24%

28%

6%

4%

6%

5%

6%

6%

7%

4%

9%

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

6%

6%

9%

8%

5%

4%

5%

5%

5%

6%

54%

56%

49%

57%

47%

42%

2%

1%

2%

3%

1%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA


31

28

32

24

51

36

9

6

6

6

11

7

3

9

11

7

13

10

5

8

8

8

10

12

4

6

6

6

4

10

3

42

35

48

11

23

73

1

2

1

2

3

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

GENDER

Male

Female

AGE

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and older

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA

28

25

25

32

31

6

5

7

8

5

9

7

11

9

7

8

6

8

4

11

6

5

9

5

3

42

51

36

41

41

1

1

4

2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

REGIONS

West

Center

South

East

How many times per week do you access the Internet?


32

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS


33

Gender

45%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Female

Male

Age groups

23%

35%

43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

50+

30-49

18-29


34

4%

23%

40%

6%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Education

University, higher

Non-complete higher

Vocational secondary

General secondary

Non-complete

secondary

74%

9%

9%3% 3%

2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Religion DK/NA

Atheist

Other

Believe in God but don't

belong to any religion

Greek Catholic

Orthodox


35

29%

19%

1%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sector of employment

Do not work

Public

nongovernment

sectorState sector

Private sector

24%

1%

20%

1%

29%

4%8%

8%5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Occupation Other

Unemployed

Housewife

Student

Pensioner

Higher and medium level

executiveWhite collar

Farmer

Blue collar


36

40%

40%

19%

1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Language usually spoken at home

Other

Ukrainian and

Russian equally

Russian

Ukrainian

80%

17%

3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ethnicity

Other

Russian

Ukrainian


37

96%

3%1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Membership in a political party or nongovernmental

organization

Member of

nongovernmental

organization

Member of a

party

None

22%

30%

19%

29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

West Ukraine Center Ukraine South Ukraine East Ukraine

Regions*

*Oblasts included in each region: West Ukraine – Volyn, Zakarpartia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnitskiy, Chernivtsi

Center Ukraine – Vinnitsya, Zhitomyr, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv City

South Ukraine – Crimea Autonomous Region, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson

East Ukraine – Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv


IRI Ukraine Survey: September 2013

News & Politics

Transcript of IRI Ukraine Survey: September 2013