Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

14
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012 www.mccaffreyassociates.com "#$%& %'()*& + ,"-. /0) 1'-2 3,%2#,%/$/",% *456789. %:3 );4<=>6?4@ 87A B9CA=<49@ DE F87=89G EHDE BARRY R. McCAFFREY GENERAL, USA (RETIRED) 211 N. Union Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 [email protected] 703-519-1250 1 of 14

description

Seminar: NBC Executives & Producers 12 January 2012BARRY R. McCAFFREY GENERAL, USA (RETIRED)

Transcript of Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

Page 1: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

!"#$%&!%'()*&!+!,"-.!

/0)!1'-2!3,%2#,%/$/",%!!

*456789.!%:3!);4<=>6?4@!87A!B9CA=<49@!

!DE!F87=89G!EHDE!

!

!BARRY R. McCAFFREY

GENERAL, USA (RETIRED)

211 N. Union Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 [email protected] 703-519-1250 1 of 14

Page 2: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

! ! "#$$%!&'(#))$*%!+*$,*-!./!01*!2/.0*-!30#0*+!4$5%!)6$!78!%*#$+!#/-!$*0.$*-!#+!#!)69$:+0#$!;*/*$#<=!!!40!$*0.$*5*/0>!1*!?#+!01*!56+0!1.@1<%!-*'6$#0*-!+*$,./@!;*/*$#<>!1#,./@!A**/!#?#$-*-!01$**!B9$C<*!D*#$0!5*-#<+!

#/-!0?6!3.<,*$!30#$+!)6$!,#<6$=!!

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

!

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

!

! ! ;*/*$#<!&'(#))$*%!#00*/-*-!B1.<<.C+!4'#-*5%>!4/-6,*$>!&#++=P!#/-!@$#-9#0*-!)$65!G*+0!B6./0!?.01!#!"#'1*<6$!6)!3'.*/'*!-*@$**=!D*!*#$/*-!#!5#+0*$Y+!-*@$**!./!45*$.'#/!;6,*$/5*/0!)$65!45*$.'#/!2/.,*$+.0%!#/-!#00*/-*-!01*!D#$,#$-!2/.,*$+.0%!I#0.6/#<!3*'9$.0%!B$6@$#5!#+!?*<<!#+!01*!"9+./*++!3'166<!XZ*'90.,*!X-9'#0.6/!B$6@$#5=!!

! ! !

! ! L/!8MMU!1*!?#+!!./-9'0*-!./06!01*!23!4$5%!V#/@*$!D#<<!6)!E#5*!#0!01*!23!4$5%!L/)#/0$%!(*/0*$>!E0=!"*//./@>!;4=!!L/!&#%!8MNM>!1*!?#+!16/6$*-!#+!#!F.+0./@9.+1*-!;$#-9#0*!A%!01*!G*+0!B6./0!4++6'.#0.6/!6)!;$#-9#0*+!#0!01*!2/.0*-!30#0*+!&.<.0#$%!4'#-*5%=!!

!

! ! ;*/*$#<!&'(#))$*%!.+!5#$$.*-!06![.<<!4//!&'(#))$*%=!\1*%!1#,*!01$**!#-9<0!'1.<-$*/!#/-!+.Z!@$#/-'1.<-$*/=!!\1*.$!+6/>!(6<6/*<!3*#/!&'(#))$*%>!.+!'9$$*/0<%!+*$,./@!./!4)@1#/.+0#/=!!!

!

! ! (9$$*/0<%>!;*/*$#<!&'(#))$*%!.+!B$*+.-*/0!6)!1.+!6?/!'6/+9<0./@!).$5!A#+*-!./!4<*Z#/-$.#>!W.$@./.#!???=5''#))$*%#++6'.#0*+='65=!!D*!#<+6!+*$,*+!#+!#!/#0.6/#<!+*'9$.0%!#/-!0*$$6$.+5!#/#<%+0!)6$!I"(!I*?+=!

! ! !

:6CI98JKG!CL!147498M!!:899G!#N!O<38LL94G&!'*$!P#4>NQ!

2 of 14

Page 3: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

"987!+!/K4!1=ML.!3944J67I!/CR89A!S89!

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`!6)!01*.$!)6$*.@/!$*,*/9*=!!!!!\1*$*!.+!#<+6!#!?.-*+C$*#-!./'6$$*'0!./0*<<.@*/'*!#++*++5*/0!01#0!01*!L$#/.#/+!<#']!01*!(4B4"L^L\LX3!06!+190!-6?/!01*!;9<)!*ZC6$0+=!!!!!IH\!3H=!! :+9A+:::!#!+.@/.).'#/0!+*#!5././@!'#C#'.0% +65*!*Z0$*5*<%!*))*'0.,*!+16$*!A#+*-!5.++.<*!A#00*$.*+:::!+65*!1.@1<%!*))*'0.,*!#.$!-*)*/+*!'#C#A.<.0.*+:::!#/-!#!+5#<<!/95A*$!6)!1.@1!C*$)6$5#/'*!#.$'$#)0!?.01!5.++.<*+!01#0!'69<-!-*/%!01*!0?6!5.<*!?.-*!D6$59a!+*#!0$#/+.0!a6/*!06!+#)*!0#/]*$!0$#)).'=!!\1*%!'69<-!#<+6!C<#'*!01*!;((b3#9-.!;9<)!6.<!0*$5./#<+!#0!$.+]=!!!!\1*!<#0*+0!+#A*$!$#00<./@!A%!01*!L$#/.#/!4$5*-!E6$'*+!01$*#0*/./@!01*!23!I#,%!!(#$$.*$!30*//.+!"#00<*!;$69C!06!/60!$*09$/!06!01*!;9<)!?#+!+.@/.).'#/0=!L0!?#+!.55*-.#0*<%!#/-!?.-*<%!-*$.-*-!#+!#/!*5C0%!01$*#0!A%!O01!E<**0!./!"#1$#./=!L/!5%!Q9-@5*/0!01*!23!?.<<!/60!#/-!+169<-!/60!C<#'*!#!'#$$.*$!#0!$.+]!./!01*!/#$$6?!;9<)!?#0*$+!!.)!'65A#0!6C*$#0.6/+!#$*!-**5*-!<.]*<%=!!\1*$*!.+!#!1.@1!C$6A#A.<.0%!01#0!01*!L$#/.#/+!'69<-!3LIc!#!23!'#$$.*$!J?.01!OMMMd!+#.<6$+K!./!01*+*!'6/+0$#./*-!?#0*$+!?.01!01*.$!'9$$*/0!5.<.0#$%!'#C#A.<.0.*+=!!L0!?69<-!5*#/!#<<:690!?#$!.)!01#0!1#CC*/*-=!!!F$.,./@!!01.+!'6/)$6/0#0.6/!?#+!01*!*Z0$*5*<%!9/?.+*!56,*!A%!(6/@$*++!06!6,*$?1*<5./@<%!C#++!<*@.+<#0.6/!)6$'./@!59+'9<#$!4-5./.+0$#0.6/!#'0.6/!06!*'6/65.'#<<%!+0$#/@<*!01*!L$#/.#/+!#A.<.0%!06!*ZC6$0!6.<=!HA#5#!)*<0!C6<.0.'#<<%!1*!1#-!06!+.@/!.0=!!F.C<65#'%!+169<-!A*!01*!<*#-!6)!01*!G1.0*!D69+*!IH\!(6/@$*++=!!\1.+!0.*+!3*'$*0#$%!

::!#/-!01*!(1./*+*!OM`!6)!01*.$!6.<!:::!#/-!01*!?6$<-!NU`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e9.$*!#!5#Q6$!23!5.<.0#$%!#.$!#/-!/#,#<!#'0.6/!6)!+*,*$#<!56/01+!-9$#0.6/=!!L0!.+!/60!'<*#$!.)!01*!L$#e.+!?69<-!+9CC6$0!+9'1!#'0.6/=!!4<<!01*!;((!+0#0*+!?69<-!A#']!01*!23!#+!#/!6CC6$09/.0%!06!#,*$0!01*!'65./@!!/9'<*#$!01$*#0!)$65!L$#/=!!\1*!L+$#*<.+!+169<-!?*<'65*!+9'1!#!'6/)$6/0#0.6/=!!\1*%!1#,*!#/!*Z.+0*/0.#<!01$*#0!06!01*.$!+9$,.,#<!<665./@!./!01*!,*$%!/*#$!!!!:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::!!!NO`!C$6A#A.<.0%!6)!5#Q6$!5.<.0#$%!#'0.6/!./!01*!'65./@!TM!-#%+=!!!

3 of 14

Page 4: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) March 2011

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

/K4!B49@687!1=ML!+!*>986>!CL!0C95=T!

;9<)!.+!RNO!5.<*+!<6/@P!8NM!5.<*+!#0!?.-*+0!C6./0=!!8N!5.<*+!?.-*!01$69@1!/#$$6?*+0!C#$0!6)!30$#.0!6)!D6$59a=!!\?6!C#$#<<*<!+1.CC./@!<#/*+! !*#'1!8!5.<*+!?.-*!./!01*!30$#.0=!!"6$-*$!'69/0$.*+f!L$#/>!L$#e>!c9?#.0>!3#9-.!4$#A.#>!"#1$#./>!g#0#$>!2=4=X=!!

4 of 14

Page 5: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

"987!87A!,6M! ! !

!!8MNM!;FB!:!h_R7=O!A.<<.6/=!!L$#/!::!i01!<#$@*+0!6.<!C$6-9'*$!./!01*!?6$<-! !i=N!5.<<.6/!A#$$*<+!C*$!-#%=!B*0$6<*95!5#]*+!9C!_M`!6)!#<<!0$#-*!*ZC6$0+!690!6)!L$#/=!

!

D6$59a=!!

L/!8MNN>!#/!#,*$#@*!6)!8_!0#/]*$!+1.C+!C#++*-!01$69@1!01*!30$#.0!C*$!-#%=!JD#<)!#$*!*5C0%=K!!NU!5.<<.6/+!A#$$*<+!6)!6.<!56,*-!01$69@1!-#.<%f!8M`!6)!#<<!6.<!0$#-*-!?6$<-:?.-*P!7O`!6)!#<<!+*#A6$/*:0$#-*-!6.<=!!HC0.6/+!)6$!56,./@!6.<!06!5#$]*0+!$#C.-<%!A*./@!-*,*<6C*-!)6$!C.C*<./*!A%C#++=!!!!

!

5 of 14

Page 6: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

"987687!O6M6>89G!38J8<6>G!EHDE!

OiO>MMM!4'0.,*!&.<.0#$%!./'<9-./@!V*,6<90.6/#$%!;9#$-+=!!H/*!5.<<.6/!C<9+!$*+*$,*+=!!;.#/0>!6A+6<*0*>!C66$<%!0$#./*-!@$69/-!'65A#0!)6$'*!?.01!5#$@./#<!690:6):#$*#!6))*/+.,*!C9/'1=!!J7>7MM!#$56$*-!,*1.'<*+! !7>8MM!#$0.<<*$%=K!!8M>MMM!4'0.,*!I#,#<!E6$'*+! !01*!*<.0*!+*$,.'*!J7>MMMd!&#$./*+Kf!

8R!+9A5#$./*+=!!\1$**!33c!c.<6!400#']!39A+!JW#<:E#Q$!06$C*-6*+! !i_O!<A=!?*#C6/=K!NM!5.++.<*!C#0$6<!A6#0+!?.01!(:_M8!5.++.<*+! !UM!5.<*!$#/@*=!&6A.<*>!<#/-!A#+*-!#/0.:+1.C!3**$+9']*$!5.++.<*!A#00*$.*+!JD%:8K!?.01!$#/@*!6)!NMM!].<65*0*$+=!G.-*!$#/@*!6)!5./*!?#$)#$*!A6#0+!J8>MMMd!/#,#<!5./*+K=!&6-*$/!5.++.<*!A6#0+!#$5*-!?.01!#/0.:+1.C!5.++.<*+=!Jg#-*$!#/0.:+1.C!'$9.+*!5.++.<*!$#/@*!N8i!5.<*+K=!L;V(!I#,#<!"$#/'1!<*#-!./!01*!;9<)=!L$#/.#/!I#,%!<*#-!./!;9<)!6)!H5#/!#/-!(#+C.#/!3*#=!

!:C>>C5!-674.!/K6@!%8?8M!2C9<4!<87!<MC@4!>K4!1=MLN!!/K4G!<C=MA!@67U!8!'*!<899649!67!>K4!1=ML!7899CR!R8>49R8GN!!!!

!!

!

6 of 14

Page 7: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

"987687!O6M6>89G!38J8<6>G!EHDE!P<C7>67=4AQ!

L$#/.#/!4.$!B6?*$f!O8>MMM!4'0.,*!4.$!E6$'*=!O8O!060#<!#.$'$#)0=!!7N8!'65A#0!#.$'$#)0=!HA+6<*0*>!C66$<%!0$#./*-!)6$'*!6/!Ni!6C*$#0.6/#<!#.$!A#+*+=!(#C#A<*!6)!+.@/.).'#/0!*'6/65.'!-#5#@*!06!3#9-.b;((!6.<!+1.CC./@!#/-!C$6-9'0.6/!)#'.<.0.*+!-9$./@!6C*/./@!-#%+!6)!'6/)<.'0=!G69<-!A*!<#$@*<%!-*+0$6%*-!./!7M!-#%+=!

!4.$!F*)*/+*!(#C#A.<.0%f!

G*#]!'655#/-!#/-!'6/0$6<=!!W9</*$#A<*!06!*<*'0$6/.'!?#$)#$*=!365*!56-*$/!4F4!JC6++.A<*!)69$!A#00*$.*+!37MM!5.++.<*+K=!J7M!\6$:&!C6./0!-*)*/+*!A#00*$.*+=K!G69<-!A*!./.0.#<!C$.6$.0%!)6$!23!#.$!#00#']=!

!3C*'.#<!HC+!(#C#A.<.0%! !L+<#5.'!V*,6<90.6/#$%!;9#$-!(6$C+f!

g9-+!E6$'*>!D*aA6<<#1>!D#5#+!'65A#0!59<0.C<.*$+=!!F*'<#$*-!(1*5.'#<!G#$)#$*!'#C#A.<.0.*+=!B$6A#A<*!".6<6@.'#<!G#$)#$*!'#C#A.<.0%=!L$#/!1#+!A*0?**/!7MM!#/-!iMM!31#1#A:7!@$69/-!5.++.<*+!01#0!.0!'#/!).$*!#0!L+$#*<=!G.<<!1#,*!#!-6a*/!/9'<*#$!?*#C6/+!?.01./!O!%*#$+=!!!!

!!

!

7 of 14

Page 8: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

'N*N!1MCV8M!%8?8M!87A!$69!BCR49!

U.S. Navy (Second largest Air Force in the world)

78i>8MT!!#'0.,*!C*$+6//*<!!!

_U>TO8!$*+*$,*!C*$+6//*<!!

8_O!A#00<*!)6$'*!+1.C+!!

7>UMMd!#.$'$#)0!JNN!4.$'$#)0!'#$$.*$+K!!

88!($9.+*$+!!

RM!F*+0$6%*$+!!

UO!39A5#$./*+!!

O01!I#,#<!E<**0!1#+!<#$@*!C$*+*/'*!./!30$#.0!6)!D6$59a=!!

B$6A#A<*!01$**!'#$$.*$!A#00<*!@$69C+!?.01./!RM!-#%+=!

U.S. Air Force (Largest Air Force in the world)

329,683 active personnel

68,872 reserve personnel

94,597 air guard personnel

5,500+ aircraft (2,100+ fighters)

450 ICBMs

32 satellites

:C>>C5!-674.!38J8VM4!CL!A4@>9CG67I!"987687!869!87A!78?8M!JCR49!87A!7=<M489!L8<6M6>64@!67!8!@6;!5C7>K!<85J86I7N!

8 of 14

Page 9: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

"@984M6!W4L47@4!2C9<4@!&6+0!56-*$/>!0$#./*->!<*01#<!)6$'*!./!01*!&.--<*!X#+0=!!

4'0.,*!&.<.0#$%!N_U>MMM=!!V*+*$,*+!ORO>MMM=!!

4.$!E6$'*!::!01*!*<.0*!+*$,.'*f!UOM!#.$'$#)0!_7!ENObENOX!8M7!ENR!U!#.$!$*)9*<!NMM!#00#']!1*<.'6C0*$!8M!E7O!+0*#<01!).@10*$+!C*/-./@!L/-*C*/-*/0!L3V!+#0*<<.0*!'#C#A.<.0%!

!

4.$!F*)*/+*f!W*$%!+6C1.+0.'#0*->!06!./'<9-*!#@#./+0!5.++.<*!#00#']=!B#0$.60>!4$$6?>!30./@*$>!L:D#?]>!L$6/!F65*=!

!

I#,#<!B6?*$f!7!F6<C1./!56-*$/!+9A5#$./*+!?.01!'$9.+*!5.++.<*+=!7!'6$,*00*+!NM!5.++.<*!A6#0+!i8!C#0$6<!A6#0+!

!

NOM:iMM!/9'<*#$!#/-!01*$56/9'<*#$!?*#C6/+=!!

(1*5.'#<!#/-!".6:?#$)#$*!6))*/+.,*!'#C#A.<.0%=!!

!!

!

9 of 14

Page 10: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

/K4!1=ML!3C7L9C7>8>6C7.!3C7<M=@6C7@!

L$#/!?.<<!1#,*!#!/9'<*#$!'#C#A.<.0%!6)!#!-6a*/!?*#C6/+!?.01./!RM!56/01+!?.01!01*!5.++.<*!#/-!).@10*$!-*<.,*$%!+%+0*5+!$*e9.$*-!06!+0$.]*!0#$@*0+!./!L+$#*<>!01*!;((!+0#0*+>!#/-!$*@.6/#<!23!5.<.0#$%!)6$'*+=!!L$#/!1#+!01*!/#,#<!C6?*$!J5./*+>!+9A5#$./*+>!C#0$6<b5.++.<*!A6#0+K!#/-!+16$*:A#+*-!#/0.:+1.C!5.++.<*+!06!'<6+*!;9<)!6.<!-*<.,*$.*+!#/-!+0$.]*!3#9-.b;((!C*0$6<*95!)#'.<.0.*+=!!23!#.$!#/-!/#,#<!C6?*$!'69<-!/*90$#<.a*!L$#/.#/!/#,#<!C6?*$!#/-!/9'<*#$!C$6-9'0.6/!)#'.<.0.*+!6/<%!?.01!#!+9+0#./*-!#00#']!'#5C#.@/!6)!+*,*$#<!56/01+!-9$#0.6/!$*e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

!!

!

10 of 14

Page 11: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

EHDE!%8>6C78M!*4<=96>G!3K8MM47I4@!!>C!$5496<8!

XD!#"*(!::!GL\DFV4G4^!EVH&!4E;D4IL3\4If!NOM>MMM!23bI4\H!)6$'*+!_UM!5.<*+!)$65!01*!6C*/!+*#=!B#].+0#/!0$#/+.0!*++*/0.#<!06!<6@.+0.'+!+9$,.,#<!6)!01*!)6$'*=!8MNi!-*'<#$*-!?.01-$#?#<!-$.,*+!*/0.$*!C6<.0.'#<b5.<.0#$%!'#<'9<9+!6)!01*!c#$a#.!@6,*$/5*/0!#/-!01*!\#<.A#/=!

!XE!#"*(! !L5C<6+.6/!6)!L$#e>!#@@$*++.6/!A%!L$#/>!#/-!?#$!./!01*!;9<)=!!XY!#"*(! !I6$01!c6$*#/!0$#/+.0.6/!)#.<+=!!&.<.0#$%b/9'<*#$!'6/)$6/0#0.6/=!!XZ!#"*(! !B#].+0#/!.5C<6-*+! !;*/*$#<!c#%#/.!#/-!\1*!4$5%bL3L!<6+*!'6/0$6<! !+*'9$.0%!6)!TM:NNM!/9'<*#$!?*#C6/+!#0!$.+]=!!X[!#"*(! !(1#,*a!-.*+!./!W*/*a9*<#! !E.-*<!(#+0$6!-.*+!./!(9A#! !,.6<*/0!$*@.5*!'1#/@*!0#]*+!C<#'*=!!X\!#"*(! !'#$0*<+=!!V9<*!6)!<#?!'6<<#C+*+=!!!!

!!

!

11 of 14

Page 12: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

!8MNM!@<6A#<!;FB!?#+!hRN=TR!0$.<<.6/!

2=3=!JC6C9<#0.6/!7MU!5.<<.6/K!'6/0$.A90*-!8i`!JhNi=U8!0$.<<.6/K!(1./#!JC6C9<#0.6/!N=7!A.<<.6/K!'6/0$.A90*-!T`!JhO=UiO!0$.<<.6/K!

!;.#/0!2=3=!;FBf!

"$#a.<!;FB!j!E<6$.-#!d!L<<./6.+!;FB!V9++.#!;FB!j!\*Z#+!;FB!L/-.#!;FB!j!k!6)!(#<.)6$/.#!;FB!!

2=3=!F*)*/+*!+C*/-./@!i=U`!6)!;FB=!JL/'<9-*+!?#$!-.$*'0!*ZC*/-.09$*+K=!HC*$#0.6/+!./!L$#e!l!4)@1#/.+0#/!1#,*!'6+0!01*!2=3=!hN=N!0$.<<.6/>!?.01!hTTT!A.<<.6/!@6./@!06!F6F>!#+!6)!N!3*C0*5A*$!8MNM=!

!2=3=!.+!#!<*#-./@!@<6A#<!*ZC6$0*$=!J(1./#!hN=O_!0$.<<.6/P!;*$5#/%!hN=7i!0$.<<.6/P!2=3=!hN=8_!0$.<<.6/!::!8MNMK=!!2=3=!.+!+0.<<!01*!<*#-./@!@<6A#<!5#/9)#'09$./@!C6?*$=!!J8N`!6)!#<<!@<6A#<!5#/9)#'09$./@!690C90=!!45*$.'#!$*5#./+!mN!5#/9)#'09$./@!'69/0$%!690:C$6-9'./@!m8!(1./#!A%!56$*!01#/!iM`K=!!

:'69/0$%!*ZC6$0*$!6)!#@$.'9<09$#<!C$6-9'0+=!JhN88!A.<<.6/!./!8MNMK=!!\1*!2=3=!+0.<<!1#+!-65./#/0!*)).'.*/'.*+!)$65!01*!I4E\4!5#$]*0!C<#'*=!!

!!

/K4!BCR49L=M!'*!1MCV8M!)<C7C5G!

12 of 14

Page 13: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

Trillions Thousands

**All data retrieved from the CIA World Fact Book - 2010

B=>>67I!8!]8M=4!C7!$5496<8!

13 of 14

2010 GDP Per Capita

Page 14: Iran, Nukes & Oil: The Gulf Confrontation

GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.) January 2012

www.mccaffreyassociates.com

Source: The Gallup Organization, Poll dated June, 2011

12%!23%!

27%!28%!

35%!37%!

39%!48%!

56%!78%!

8M`!Congress!

Television news!

Banks!

Newspapers!

Public Schools!

Supreme Court!

President!

Religion!

Police!

US Military!

M`! iM`! RM`! _M`!

34%!

/K4!$5496<87!B4CJM4.!$!396@6@!CL!3C7L6A47<4!67!"7@>6>=>6C7@!

Medical System!

14 of 14