IRan Education & Research NETwork (IRENET) Madsg
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Transcript of IRan Education & Research NETwork (IRENET) Madsg
IRan Education & Research NETworkIRan Education & Research NETwork (IRENET)(IRENET)
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Waltz’s Neorealism
The argument in favor
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower
Structural Realism
Structural Realism PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Facts and Assumptions• Assumptions need not be true; what is
important is whether they are useful• Useful assumptions lead to powerful
theories:– Parsimonious– Testable
• The test of structural realism is whether it generates hypotheses that can be supported by evidence
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower
Structural Realism
Structural Realism PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Waltz in Review• Social systems impose constraints; all
actors are compelled to behave similarly• Analogy to a competitive market• The international system is anarchic
– Self-help– Defensive balancing
• The number of important states and the distribution of power among them determines the constraints
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Balance of Power
1. Balances form recurrently
2. Balancing vs. Bandwagoning: States prefer to join the weaker of two coalitions
3. If one coalition weakens, the opposing one loosens
4. Anticipated balancing leads to restraint
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
BoP as a Reaction to a Threat: Napoleon, 1802-1815BoP as a Reaction to a Threat: Napoleon, 1802-1815
Major Powers: FRA, UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS
Russia
After French Revolution (1789), Napoleon Bonaparte rises to power. -- Consul (1802) -- Emperor of France (1804)
Continues military campaigns to build empire and feed war machine. -- Poses major threat to Europe
UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS form “coalitions” against FRA -- Napoleon defeated (1814) -- Congress of Vienna (1814) -- Napoleon returns (1815) -- Waterloo (1815)
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
BoP as a Peaceful Equilibrium: Concert of Europe, 1815-1848BoP as a Peaceful Equilibrium: Concert of Europe, 1815-1848
After Napoleonic Wars, Congress of Vienna continues (1815)
Defeated France let back into “club”
Quadruple Alliance: Austria, Britain, Prussia, Russia
Congresses held to attempt to resolve issues.
Buffer states/territory traded.
Russia
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Assessing Balance of Power Hypotheses
1. Balances form recurrently
2. Balancing vs. Bandwagoning: States prefer to join the weaker of two coalitions
3. If one coalition weakens, the opposing one loosens
4. Anticipated balancing leads to restraint
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Structural Realism
Structural Realism PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Subsidiary HypothesesSubsidiary Hypotheses1. Socialization
– States emulate successful competitors• Military advances:
– Agincourt– French Revolution and mass mobilization– German general staff model
• Organization:– Market economy
– Nonconformist states gradually adapt• Bolshevik Russia
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Structural Realism
Structural Realism PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Subsidiary HypothesesSubsidiary Hypotheses
2. Interdependence• Relative gains impede cooperation• Interdependence increases probability of
war• Economic vulnerability leads to
imperialism
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Bipolarity vs Bipolarity vs MultipolarityMultipolarity
1792 1815 1854 1866 1870Napoleonic Wars
Concert of EuropeCrimean War
Austro-Prussian WarFranco-Prussian War WW I WW II
1914 1939
Multipolarloose, shifting alliances, Britain as balancer
four or five Great Powers
1945 1990Cold War—or “Long Peace”
Bipolar(two Great Powers, tight blocs)
?
(“peaceful”)
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Bipolarity vs MultipolarityBipolarity vs Multipolarity
• Bipolarity is more “stable.” Why?
• Multipolar balancing breaks down because of uncertainty
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolar internal balancing
Multipolar external balancing
States can maximize/accrue power in two ways:
Cold War
19th Century Europe
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Bipolarity vs MultipolarityBipolarity vs Multipolarity• Internal balancing is more reliable• External balancing can give rise to
miscalculations that lead to general war– Large influence of small allies– Deterrence fails because there is an
incentive to defect from commitments– As numbers grow, strategic complexity
grows geometrically
• Uncertainty is the leading cause of war
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Structural Theories: WWIStructural Theories: WWI
Allied PowersAllied Powers
• France
• Great Britain
• Russia
Central PowersCentral Powers
• Austria-Hungary
• Germany
Multipolar SystemMultipolar System
• Abandoning an ally invites one’s own destruction
• In a moment of crisis, the weaker or more adventurous party (Austria) is likely to determine its side’s policy
• Its partners (Germany) can afford neither to let the weaker member be defeated nor to advertise their disunity by failing to back a venture even while deploring its risks
Structural Theories: WWIStructural Theories: WWI
Allied PowersAllied Powers
• France
• Great Britain
• Russia
Central PowersCentral Powers
• Austria-Hungary
• Germany
Balance of PowerBalance of Power
• The Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance were approximately balanced
• The defeat of any great power would give the opposing coalition a decisive advantage in the overall European balance of power
• Britain entered the war to prevent Germany from upsetting the balance of power on the continent
Structural Theories: WWIStructural Theories: WWI
Allied PowersAllied Powers
• France
• Great Britain
• Russia
Central PowersCentral Powers
• Austria-Hungary
• Germany
Alliance SystemAlliance System
• The establishment of the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance divided the European powers into two camps
• While seen as a form of self-protection, the alliances also had the potential to escalate small crises into major wars
• When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, this brought Serbia’s ally Russia into the war, which brought Germany, France, and Britain into the war
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Subsidiary hypothese
s
Balance ofPower
Balance ofPower PSC272
• N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S
Assessing hypotheses Assessing hypotheses about multipolarity in WWIabout multipolarity in WWI
External balancing can give rise to miscalculations that lead to general war– Large influence of small allies– Deterrence fails because there is an
incentive to defect from commitments
Structural Realism
Structural Realism
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Bipolarity vs
Multipolarity
Admittedly, an unfair test
Strengths of Structural Realism
• Parsimony• Focus on systemic effects• Power is defined as capabilities (non-
tautological)• Explanatory power is in the constraints,
not in the preferences• Collective action• Probabilistic predictions