IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham
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Transcript of IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham
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IPv6
WTC 2000May 10th, Birmingham
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TAMING THE NET
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Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words
"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981
-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
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“32 bits should be enough address space for Internet”
-- Vint Cerf, 1977
Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words
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IP on Everything
v6
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Per
cen
tag
e o
f O
wn
ersh
ipP
erce
nta
ge
of
Ow
ner
ship
100100
8080
6060
4040
2020
00
ElectricityElectricity(1873)(1873)
TelephoneTelephone(1876)(1876)
AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)
TelevisionTelevision(1926)(1926)
RadioRadio(1905)(1905)
VCRVCR(1952)(1952)
MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)
PCPC(1975)(1975)
InternetInternet(1975)(1975)
1001008080606040402020 120120
Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction
Industry Standards Drive Ubiquity
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Users on the Internet - Mar 10, 2000Users on the Internet - Mar 10, 2000
How Many behind How Many behind Firewalls and NATs?Firewalls and NATs?
CAN/US - 125Europe - 48Asia/Pac - 46Latin Am - 10Africa - 3
-----------------------------------Total - 232 Mio Users
CAN/US
Europe
Asia/Pac
Latin Am
Africa
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Will IP Scale and Will IP Scale and remain Robust ?remain Robust ?
75% of traffic on Internet is WWW3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999)700 Million web pages (and dark info)Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data)8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.)Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported
300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002
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Can the Internet runCan the Internet runQuality & Security in one go?Quality & Security in one go?
Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast
satellite, radio and broadcast TV
Real-time quality of service support, VoIPMutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio,
web, email)
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Internet-enabled DevicesInternet-enabled Devices
In need of IP Addresses, at least!In need of IP Addresses, at least!
Information appliances
–1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega
gamesWearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)
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Source: Metricom Inc., 1997
Non-Traditional ApplicationsNon-Traditional Applications
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PersonPerson
PersonPerson
ApplianceAppliance
ApplianceAppliance
Voice
VoiceMail
Telemetry
ITS
Alarm
Notifications
Emerging
Growing
Growing
MaturingVoice Control
Fax Computer TeIephony Integration
Home Banking
InfoCom Application AreasInfoCom Application Areas
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Source: Cadence, 1998
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Source: Cadence, 1998
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Any Time, Any Where
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Wireless Internet
e.g.Internet cell phones, cameras
“always on” networking – increasing demand for IP address space
“Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite
3G cellular (2 Mb/s)
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Today: you go through a
circuit switch to get to a packet switch.
Tomorrow: you’ll go through a
packet switch to get to a
circuit switch.
Cerf’s InversionCerf’s Inversion
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NASA InterPlaNet - Chaired by Vint CerfNASA InterPlaNet - Chaired by Vint CerfSpace: the final frontierSpace: the final frontier
Our 25 year mission: to go where
no network has gone before!
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End-to-end information flow across the solar system
Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability
IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times
Integrated communications and navigation services
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The Interconnected World
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“The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice”
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Te
lec
om
Datacom
Mobility
GSM
Wirelinetelephony
The strategic direction
Mobiledata
WAN/LANdata
Voice over IP
3G(UMTS)
2G Internet
1G mobile Internet
1G Internet
3G Internet
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Mobile Internet:‘in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’
1996 1998 2000 2002 20040
200
400
600
800
1,000
(Mill
ion
s)
Fixed
MobileInternet
Mobile Internet
The Rush to the Billion!
1 B1 B
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Wide AreaCoverage
Local AreaCoverage
Global IP Mobility
Mobile Information
Society
Wireless, secure,
high speed access
Messaging internet
always onShared
databases &applications
Mobile telephony
Seamless services
IP
Fast Internet
& Intranet
Mobile multimedia
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Cerf’s PredictionCerf’s Prediction
By 2010, 100% of all traffic will be packetized!.
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Internet Scaling challengesGreat IP Address CrunchQoS
Security
Authentication and usage tracking
Accurate system information
Maintain IS technical advantage
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IP Address Haves &IP Address Haves & Have-NotsHave-Nots
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IP Address Haves &IP Address Haves & Have-NotsHave-Nots
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IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6 IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6
IPv4 IPv6IPv4 IPv6
Address Space Shortage Security
Cost of System Management Lack of Capability needed for Next
Generation Applications
1970 1980 2000IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!
1990
YN? Y
N
NY?
IP Robustness & Scalability
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The routing problem is getting out of controlled, despite CIDR!
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Early conclusion
+ Wireless Growth
Internet 2000 is a baby!Internet 2000 is a baby!
Internet Growth
100 IP Adds/person!
+ Always-On+ Info Soft Appliances
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FinallyFinally
The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be and the more complicated
the transition will be !
(compare to Y2K!)
Yv4Yv4
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IPv6 FORUMIPv6 FORUM
Vint CERF
Honorary ChairmanOuternet: InterPlaNet!Outernet: InterPlaNet!
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Join the Future, Now!
THANK YOU
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