Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2015 - Views on Europe & Economic Optimism

2015POLITICAL MONITOR23.10.2015

2015VOTINGINTENTIONS

Voting IntentionHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

35%

35%

12%

3%9%

6%

All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention

Conservative lead = 0 Conservative lead = +4

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

36%

32%

12%

3%10%

7%

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015, all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 773. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

3

2015SATISFACTION WITH THEGOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

5

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT

+0.5%swing from September




-1.5%swing from September

-9 Net -2 Net +8 Net -5 Net -19 NetSATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 57%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

0

-50

+50

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?

6

Satisfaction with Party leaders Oct ‘08 – Oct ‘15

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


Oct-08

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct-09

Jan-

10

Apr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct-10

Jan-

11

Apr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct-11

Jan-

12

Apr-1

2Ju

l-12

Oct-12

Jan-

13

Apr-1

3Ju

l-13

Oct-13

Jan-

14

Apr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct-14

Jan-

15

Apr-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct-15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

42%

45%

CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE

37%

22%


7

Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOBAS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

8

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


42%

51%

7%

October 2015 August 2006 –October 2015

Aug

-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

Apr

-08

Aug

-08

Dec

-08

Apr

-09

Aug

-09

Dec

-09

Apr

-10

Sep

-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1S

ep-1

1Ja

n-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3S

ep-1

3Ja

n-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15A

pr-1

52O

ct-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 51%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -9

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

9

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 321 Conservative supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015



85%

10%4%

October 2015 July 2006 – October 2015

Jul 0

6Ja

n 07

Jul 0

7D

ec 0

7A

pr 0

8A

ug 0

8D

ec-0

8A

pr-0

9A

ug-0

9D

ec-0

9A

pr-1

0S

ep-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

l-11

Nov

-11

Mar

-12

Jul-1

2N

ov-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

l-13

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4N

ov-1

4M

ar-1

5Ju

l-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


SATISFIED 85%

DISSATISFIED 10%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +75

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

10

64%16%

21%

37%

39%

25%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


October 2015

SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 39%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = -2

Base: 1,021 British adults; 311 Labour supporters 18+, 17th –19th October 2015

SATISFIED 64%

DISSATISFIED 16%

DON’T KNOW 21%

Net = +48

Labour supporters only

11

22%

27%

51%61%14%

25%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 80 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 17th – 19 th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


October 2015 Lib Dem supporters only

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 27%

DON’T KNOW 51%

Net = -5

SATISFIED 61%

DISSATISFIED 14%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = +47

12

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


45%

37%

18%

October 2015 March 2013 – October 2015

SATISFIED 45%

DISSATISFIED 37%

DON’T KNOW 18%

Net = +8

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Base: 83 UKIP supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.




91%

6%2%


SATISFIED 91%

DISSATISFIED 6%

DON’T KNOW 2%

Net = +85Dissatisfied

Satisfied

2015LEADERSHIP CHANGES

15%

14%

22%

28%

16%

27%

30%

10%

13%

17%

16%

11%

22%

12%

33%

21%

25%

22%

36%

16%

21%

14%

21%

13%

14%

12%

16%

12%

17%

26%

19%

14%

10%

14%

19%

11%

4%

5%

5%

15%

4%

6%Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

Party Leadership Change?15PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE

FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:

4

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (Liberal Democrat and UKIP each asked of half sample)N.B. Question wording in 2014 was “The … should change their leader before next year's general election” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

49%

44%

27%

2015

2015

2015

2015

2014

2014

2014

42%

27%

39%

25%

47%

31%

32%

28%

22%

30%

31%Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

Conservative Party

UK Independence Party

THE … SHOULD CHANGE THEIR LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020

2015VOTINGINTENTIONS

Voting IntentionHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?


35%

35%

12%

3%9%

6%

All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention

Conservative lead = 0 Conservative lead = +4

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

36%

32%

12%

3%10%

7%

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015, all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 773. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

17

2015SATISFACTION WITH THEGOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

19

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT





-1.5%swing from September

-9 Net -2 Net +8 Net -5 Net -19 NetSATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 57%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

0

-50

+50

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?

20

Satisfaction with Party leaders Oct ‘08 – Oct ‘15


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


Oct-08

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct-09

Jan-

10

Apr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct-10

Jan-

11

Apr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct-11

Jan-

12

Apr-1

2Ju

l-12

Oct-12

Jan-

13

Apr-1

3Ju

l-13

Oct-13

Jan-

14

Apr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct-14

Jan-

15

Apr-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct-15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

42%

45%

CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE

37%

22%


21

Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOBAS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister


22

David Cameron (satisfaction)




42%

51%

7%

October 2015 August 2006 –October 2015

Aug

-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

Apr

-08

Aug

-08

Dec

-08

Apr

-09

Aug

-09

Dec

-09

Apr

-10

Sep

-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1S

ep-1

1Ja

n-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3S

ep-1

3Ja

n-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan-

15A

pr-1

52O

ct-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 51%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -9

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

23

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 321 Conservative supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015



85%

10%4%

October 2015 July 2006 – October 2015

Jul 0

6Ja

n 07

Jul 0

7D

ec 0

7A

pr 0

8A

ug 0

8D

ec-0

8A

pr-0

9A

ug-0

9D

ec-0

9A

pr-1

0S

ep-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

l-11

Nov

-11

Mar

-12

Jul-1

2N

ov-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

l-13

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4N

ov-1

4M

ar-1

5Ju

l-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


SATISFIED 85%

DISSATISFIED 10%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +75

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

24

64%16%

21%

37%

39%

25%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


October 2015

SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 39%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = -2

Base: 1,021 British adults; 311 Labour supporters 18+, 17th –19th October 2015

SATISFIED 64%

DISSATISFIED 16%

DON’T KNOW 21%

Net = +48

Labour supporters only

25

22%

27%

51%61%14%

25%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 80 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 17th – 19 th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


October 2015 Lib Dem supporters only

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 27%

DON’T KNOW 51%

Net = -5

SATISFIED 61%

DISSATISFIED 14%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = +47

26

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60






45%

37%

18%


SATISFIED 45%

DISSATISFIED 37%

DON’T KNOW 18%

Net = +8

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

27

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Base: 83 UKIP supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.




91%

6%2%


SATISFIED 91%

DISSATISFIED 6%

DON’T KNOW 2%

Net = +85Dissatisfied

Satisfied

2015LEADERSHIP CHANGES

15%

14%

22%

28%

16%

27%

30%

10%

13%

17%

16%

11%

22%

12%

33%

21%

25%

22%

36%

16%

21%

14%

21%

13%

14%

12%

16%

12%

17%

26%

19%

14%

10%

14%

19%

11%

4%

5%

5%

15%

4%

6%Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

Party Leadership Change?29PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE

FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:

4

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (Liberal Democrat and UKIP each asked of half sample)N.B. Question wording in 2014 was “The … should change their leader before next year's general election” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

49%

44%

27%

2015

2015

2015

2015

2014

2014

2014

42%

27%

39%

25%

47%

31%

32%

28%

22%

30%

31%Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

Conservative Party

UK Independence Party

THE … SHOULD CHANGE THEIR LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020

2015POLITICAL MONITOR23.10.2015

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2015 - Views on Europe & Economic Optimism

News & Politics

Transcript of Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2015 - Views on Europe & Economic Optimism