Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker ...€¦ · Buying and selling sentiment (±)...

18
1 Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public SlideShare summary Q3 2017

Transcript of Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker ...€¦ · Buying and selling sentiment (±)...

Page 1: Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker ...€¦ · Buying and selling sentiment (±) net good time buy (±) net good time sell Thinking about the next 12 months, do

1Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public

SlideShare summary

Q3 2017

Page 2: Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker ...€¦ · Buying and selling sentiment (±) net good time buy (±) net good time sell Thinking about the next 12 months, do

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House Price Outlook (HPO)

5%

1%3%

5%

11%

25%24%

16%

7%

3%

Don't know Lower by 15% or

more

Lower by 10% -

15%

Lower by 5% -

10%

Lower but less

than 5% lower

The same Higher but less

than 5% higher

Higher by 5% -

10%

Higher by 10% -

15%

Higher 15% or

more

.

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?

[respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI]

* UK house price benchmark given = £222,293

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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House Price Outlook trendA

pr-

11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec-

11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct

-12

Dec-

12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-13

Dec-

13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Previous Autumn measures

+42

Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO]

+30

+15

+64

+63

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

-2

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HPO and EOI trends

HPO EOI

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017

Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?

Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next

12 months?

+30

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+)

EOI measures in advance of HPO measure

-31

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

EOI - Ipsos MORI

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‘Higher’ trendsDo you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 2 months time or will it be

the same? (HPO)> 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same

3

7

25

24

16

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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‘Lower’ trendsDo you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be

the same? ( HPO)> 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same

25

5

11

1

3

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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HPO and selling sentiment

HPO Selling sentiment

Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same?

Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to

sell a property?

Selling sentiment –

% agree good time to

sell

HPO – + balance of

% higher minus %

lower

47

+30

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Buying and selling sentiment

(±)

net good time buy

(±)

net good time sell

Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people

in general to buy/sell a property?

+15

+6

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Buying/selling sentiment combinedThinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people

in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/bad time sell

Bad time buy/good time sell

-5 +1 +1

Good time buy/good time sell

Bad time buy/bad time sell

+ change vs

Mar 2017

14%17%

33%

22%

+4

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Buying sentiment – key groupsThinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time

or a bad time for people in general to buy a property?

+18

+10

+25

x%

+26

27

+21

+ net good time to buy

+16+13

+23

+17

+5

-15

+18

+13

+20+23

+26

-3

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter

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Selling sentiment – key groupsThinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time

or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

x%

+ net good time to sell

+9

+6

+14+12

-4

-8

-4

+5

+20

+16+15

Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter

-4

+22

+13

x%

-19

27

+6

-17

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Barriers to buyingNow thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers

To people in general being able to buy a property?

33%

61

42

37

37

15

15

12

9

8

5

4

1

Being able to raise enough deposit

Job security

Rising property prices

Household finances

The general availability of mortgages

Concern about rises in interest rates

Fees related to buying a house

Shortage of the right type of property

Shortage of property for sale

The level of stamp duty/taxation

Falling property prices

Don't know+1

Change +vs Mar17

+1

+1

-1

+2

-1

+2

+7

-2

0

-2

-4

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Barriers to buying - trend dataNow thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers

to people in general being able to buy a property?% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices

% raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy

% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation

61

42

37

15

9,85,4

12

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Additional questions

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Mortgage ratesThinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in rates

affecting your ability to pay your mortgage payments?*

6%

30%

33%

31%

1%Very concerned

Fairly concerned

Not very

concerned

Not at all

concerned

Don't know

Base: 535 mortgage holders 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 (1,090 in 2014) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

*Question in 2014: Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in interest rates affecting your mortgage payments?

12%

30%

24%

28%

7%

Very concerned

Fairly concerned

Not very

concerned

Not at all

concerned

Don't know

2017 2014

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Regional house pricesQ. Will the average price in 12 months’ time here be higher, lower or about the same in…

London GB London Non-

London

% higher 70 64 71

% lower 11 19 9

Mids GB Mids Non-Mids

% higher 37 48 34

% lower 12 8 13

N Eng GB N Eng Non-

N Eng

% higher 31 39 28

% lower 17 15 18

S Eng GB S Eng Non-

S Eng

% higher 61 65 60

% lower 9 10 9

Scotland GB Scot Non-Scot

% higher 26 35 25

% lower 15 16 15

Wales GB Wales Non-

Wales

% higher 22 25 22

% lower 17 22 17

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Regional house prices: trendsQ. Will the average price in 12 months’ time here be higher, lower or about the same in…

London GB London Non-

London

% higher -2 -10 -4

% lower +2 +7 +1

Mids GB Mids Non-Mids

% higher 0 +5 -2

% lower -1 -6 +1

N Eng GB N Eng Non-

N Eng

% higher +1 +3 0

% lower +1 0 -1

S Eng GB S Eng Non-

S Eng

% higher 0 -5 +1

% lower 0 +2 0

Scotland GB Scot Non-Scot

% higher -2 -5 -2

% lower -2 -3 -2

Wales GB Wales Non-

Wales

% higher -1 -11 -1

% lower -1 -4 -1

Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 (1,953, 30 Sep- 19 Oct 2016 ) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

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Further information

[email protected]

[email protected]