Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing

Ipsos MORI’s

General Election

Briefing

BEN PAGE, CEO IPSOS MORI GIDEON SKINNER, HEAD OF POLITICAL RESEARCH AT IPSOS MORI JOE MURPHY, POLITICAL EDITOR AT THE EVENING STANDARD VICKY PRYCE, CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISER AT THE CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH Q&A

Ben Page, CEO Ipsos MORI

@benatipsosmori

THE VIEWS OF THE NEXT GENERATION OF (HOPEFUL) MPS

How will they judge you? HOW IMPORTANT ARE EACH OF THE FOLLOWING FACTORS WHEN YOU JUDGE A COMPANY OR ORGANISATION?

Base: All PPCS (98), Conservative PPCs (26), Labour PPCs (29), Liberal Democrat PPCs (20) asked.

3 February – 13 March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI PPC Survey 2015

83

66

60

44

38

36

31

31

27

26

22

19

4

Acts with honesty and integrity

Quality of products and services

Treatment of employees

Quality of management

Effectively delivers projects within budget

Values of the organisation

Effectively delivers projects on time

Social responsibility

Approach to Training and Development

Contribution to UK economy

Public reputation

Financial performance

Communication with MPs

Con. Lab. Lib Dem.

73 83 90

65 59 80

38 79 40

58 31 35

46 31 25

23 41 30

42 34 10

19 17 30

23 24 30

27 28 15

27 17 10

35 10 10

12 0 0

% saying “Extremely important”

…and how do current MPs judge you? HOW IMPORTANT ARE EACH OF THE FOLLOWING FACTORS WHEN YOU JUDGE A COMPANY OR ORGANISATION?

Base: All MPs (107), Conservative MPs (47), Labour MPs (47) asked.

Winter 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI MPs Survey Winter 2014

% saying “Extremely important”

69

57

46

39

35

30

27

23

21

20

17

15

2

Acts with honesty and integrity

Quality of products and services

Treatment of employees

Quality of management

Effectively delivers projects within budget

Effectively delivers projects on time

Values of the organisation

Financial performance

Contribution to UK economy

Social responsibility

Approach to Training and Development

Public reputation

Communication with MPs

Con. Lab.

68 63

51 59

26 62

37 40

32 35

28 27

16 39

26 20

16 25

7 26

9 20

11 21

4 0

What do they think of your sector? HOW FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE ARE YOUR OVERALL OPINIONS AND IMPRESSIONS OF THESE INDUSTRIES?



20

8

9

16

12

4

6

12

9

1

3

8

3

1

53

56

53

40

36

40

37

28

30

34

30

21

24

15

1

5

8

9

19

18

17

12

12

18

28

27

24

34

2

2

1

5

2

2

17

3

7

7

14

12

18

Automotive

Airline

Telecoms

Food and drink

Rail

Supermarkets

Pensions

Nuclear energy

Pharmaceutical

Insurance

Energy

Newspapers

Financial services

Banking

% Total favourable

Con. Lab. Lib Dem.

84 83 70

85 55 50

69 66 45

54 55 47

62 31 40

58 59 35

46 45 45

62 38 25

58 38 20

35 34 35

38 28 20

42 17 20

54 7 25

46 3 5

% very favourable % mainly favourable % mainly unfavourable % very unfavourable

…and what do current MPs think of your sector? HOW FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE ARE YOUR OVERALL OPINIONS AND IMPRESSIONS OF THESE INDUSTRIES?

Base: All MPs (107), Conservative MPs (47), Labour MPs (47) asked.

Winter 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI MPs Survey Winter 2014

29

24

17

10

14

11

5

2

3

5

1

3

58

56

53

59

51

38

30

26

24

21

25

12

13

2

2

9

4

4

31

25

19

38

27

12

41

42

2

1

1

6

3

7

7

1

19

8

Manufacturing

Automotive

Pharmaceutical

Retail

Construction

Rail

Energy

Insurance

Financial Services

Media

Mining

Banking

PR & Lobbying

% Total favourable

Con. Lab.

86 86

88 77

82 58

79 57

63 64

46 44

52 18

42 15

44 10

28 24

28 22

28 0

21 4

% very favourable % mainly favourable % mainly unfavourable % very unfavourable

What do they think the issues are? WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING BRITAIN TODAY? (UNPROMPTED, %)



85

54

31

27

0

15

0

0

4

35

19

62

62

14

14

24

14

21

3

10

0

0

85

65

25

35

10

5

25

5

15

5

5

45

9

18

0

45

0

0

64

0

9

9

Economy

NHS / health

Jobs / employment

Education

Inequality

Immigration / migration

Housing

Austerity / cuts

Environment / climate

Government spending / deficit

International ties / Relationship with EU

Conservative PPCs Labour PPCs Lib Dem PPCs SNP PPCs

What do they think are the problems facing business? WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING BRITISH BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY TODAY? (UNPROMPTED, %)



54

12

42

23

42

12

45

34

3

17

3

28

50

30

10

10

5

20

9

18

9

18

27

0

Skills shortage

Europe

Over-regulation /bureaucracy

General economicconditions

Taxation/Inheritancetax

Access to Finance

Conservative PPCs Labour PPCs Lib Dem PPCs SNP PPCs

What about Lobbyists?

4

43

27

17

9

47% of MPs are favourable to

lobbying

Are you generally favourable or

unfavourable towards lobbying

as it currently operates?

Base: All MPs (72), Summer 2014. All General Public (1025), March 2015

5

20

23 26

27

25% of general public are

favourable to lobbying

Are you generally favourable or

unfavourable towards lobbying

as it currently operates?

General public (%)

3 4

59

35

3% of MPs think the public

are favourable to

lobbying

Do you feel the public perceptions

of lobbying are generally

favourable or unfavourable?

MPs (%) MPs (%)

The public want more transparency

Base: All General Public (1025), March 2015. All MPs (72), Summer 2014

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

47

72

74

31

9

10

Lobbying is useful inhelping MPs

understand issuesfacing businesses

Companies are nottransparent enoughabout their lobbying

activities

MPs are nottransparent enoughabout their lobbying

activities

% agree % disagree

73% 10%

47% 25%

n/a n/a

Agree Disagree

MPs

Gideon Skinner,

Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI [email protected]

#GE2015 THE UNCERTAINTY OF POLITICS

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

The main parties are still neck and neck

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

16 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

34 33

13

6 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Fe

b 0

3

Au

g 0

3

Fe

b 0

4

Au

g 0

4

Fe

b 0

5

Au

g 0

5

Fe

b 0

6

Au

g 0

6

Fe

b 0

7

Au

g 0

7

Fe

b 0

8

Au

g 0

8

Fe

b 0

9

Au

g 0

9

Fe

b 1

0

Au

g 1

0

Fe

b 1

1

Au

g 1

1

Fe

b 1

2

Au

g 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

Au

g 1

3

Fe

b 1

4

Au

g 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

This time, history doesn’t help

What are the precedents?

• The last time a government increased its vote share after

more than two years in office - 1955

• The last time an opposition party was elected with an

overall majority after just a single parliament out of office –

1931

• Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since

1832

17 THE MOST UNPREDICTABLE ELECTION IN LIVING MEMORY?

WE’VE FOUND SOMEONE ELSE

The last 12 months have seen the ‘challenger’ parties set

their own records…..

UKIP have taken third place and reached a record

high. Those thinking they are a wasted vote have fallen from

57% to 41%.

The SNP have taken a record lead over Labour

in Westminster voting intentions in Scotland.

The Greens have also recorded their best

ever performance, matching the LibDems and attracting

LibDem switchers who were going to Labour.

Indyref accelerated – but didn’t start – Labour’s

decline in Scotland

46%

43%

40% 42% 39%

34%

32%

29%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2010 2011

La

bo

ur

sh

are

of

Vo

te

Date of Election

UK GENERAL ELECTION HOLYROOD ELECTION

WE’RE ALL POLYAMOROUS NOW

It’s not about Conservative-Labour swing any more

Data shows 2010 recalled past vote and current voting intentions of 3,045 British adults aged 18+ interviewed January-March 2015. Current voting intentions are based only on those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, while those who were unable or refused to say how they voted in 2010 are not shown.


WE CAN’T MAKE UP OUR MINDS

Fewer voters have decided…

Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -10th February 2015

25 HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR … PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?


March

2015

81%

62%

54%

56%

18%

35%

45%

41%

April

2010

April

2005

March

1992

Definitely

decided

May change

mind

Don’t

know

A generational shift in party loyalty…

All data points represent > 200 responses

26 DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?

Source: British Social Attitudes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war

Baby

boomers

Gen X

Gen Y

We don’t want another coalition – but think we’ll get

one

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 13th -15th December 2014

27 THINKING ABOUT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE A GOOD OR A BAD THING

FOR THE COUNTRY IF NO PARTY ACHIEVES AN OVERALL MAJORITY?


Want one? Will get one?

65%

28%

7%

32%

63%

5%

GOOD THING/LIKELY BAD THING/UNLIKELY DON’T KNOW

AND REGARDLESS OF YOUR PERSONAL VIEWS OF COALITIONS HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COALITION GOVERNMENT AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?

Although we’re prepared to get in bed with someone

else if we have to…

28 YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR/BE INCLINED TO SUPPORT THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW. SUPPOSE THAT NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY AFTER THE ELECTION.

HOW STRONGLY WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH …XXX IF THEY HAD ENOUGH SEATS BETWEEN THEM FOR A MAJORITY?

57

17

36

22

25

26

20

31

68

48

64

58

62

65

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 267 Conservative, 285 Labour and 66 Liberal Democrat supporters*, all British adults 18+, 8 th -10th February 2015.

*Small base sizes indicative only

Conservative

supporters

Labour supporters

Liberal Democrat

supporters

...UKIP

...Liberal Democrats

...Liberal Democrats

…Green Party

% Oppose % Support Form a coalition with…

…Conservatives

…Labour

…SNP

Although we’re prepared to get in bed with someone

else if we have to…

29 YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR/BE INCLINED TO SUPPORT THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW. SUPPOSE THAT NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY AFTER THE ELECTION.

HOW STRONGLY WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH …XXX IF THEY HAD ENOUGH SEATS BETWEEN THEM FOR A MAJORITY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 267 Conservative, 285 Labour and 66 Liberal Democrat supporters*, all British adults 18+, 8 th -10th February 2015.

*Small base sizes indicative only

% Oppose % Support Form a coalition with…

29

57

49

15

76

35

63

31

34

73

10

49

UKIP supporters

Green Party supporters

Scottish National Party

supporters

...Conservatives

...Labour

... Conservatives

…Labour

…Conservatives

…Labour

NO PARTY OWNS THE AGENDA

Which issues will be very important when voters cast

their ballots? Top four issues

31 LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH, IF ANY ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH PARTY TO VOTE FOR?

23%

30%

31%

29%

20%

27%

33%

46%

25%

22%

32%

45%

25%

25%

31%

38%

Education/schools

Asylum and immigration

Managing the economy/economic situation

Healthcare/NHS/hospitals

September 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015

Base: 848 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -11th March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour doesn’t inspire confidence on the economy

32 AND DO YOU THINK THAT A LABOUR GOVERNMENT WITH ED MILIBAND AS PRIME MINISTER AND ED BALLS AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER WOULD DO A BETTER OR A WORSE JOB, OR ABOUT THE SAME, THAN THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT HAS DONE AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?

26%

19%

31%

37%

38%

38%

5%

6%

Better job Worse job About the same Don't know

March 2015

March 2013

Base: 1,025 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

But the Conservatives aren’t trusted on the NHS

33 IF A LABOUR/CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT IS ELECTED AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION DO YOU THINK IT WILL…?

48%

20%

32%

41%

9%

31%

10%

7%

Increase NHS spending Keep spending the same

Reduce NHS spending Don't know

Conservative

Labour

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

And neither are trusted on immigration……

67% 68% 72%

66% 67% 64%

62%

64%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Dissatisfied

Base: C 1,000 British adults each month

OVERALL, HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS DEALING WITH IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM? OVERALL, HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS DEALING WITH IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM?

Source: Ipsos MORI

AND THEIR PARTIES

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2015)

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

37 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?


HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01)

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

But we’ve gone from the most presidential election to

the least

Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -11th February 2015

38 I WANT YOU TO THINK ABOUT WHAT IT IS THAT MOST ATTRACTED YOU TO …. PARTY. SOME PEOPLE ARE ATTRACTED MAINLY BY THE

POLICIES OF THE PARTY, SOME BY THE LEADERS OF THE PARTY AND SOME BECAUSE THEY IDENTIFY WITH THE PARTY AS A WHOLE.

IF YOU HAD A TOTAL OF TEN POINTS TO ALLOCATE ACCORDING TO HOW IMPORTANT EACH OF THESE WAS TO YOU, HOW MANY WOULD

YOU ALLOCATE TO THE LEADERS OF THE PARTY YOU INTEND VOTING FOR, HOW MANY TO ITS POLICIES, AND HOW MANY TO THE PARTY AS A WHOLE?


4.4 4.4 4.1 4.2

4.7

4 3.8

4.1 4.3

2.1 2 2.3 2.4

2.1 2.1 2.2

3.3 3.2 3.5

3.2 3.4

3.2 3

3.9 3.8

2.6 2.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan

-87

Jan

-88

Jan

-89

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Ja

n-9

3

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Ja

n-0

0

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Leaders

Parties

Policies

And Labour still have the strongest ‘brand’

UKIP

Conservatives

Liberal Democrats

Labour

Like leader not party Dislike leader and party Like party not leader Like leader and party

40%

48%

60%

64%

52%

40%

33%

25%

Base: 1,025 British adults aged 18+, 8-11 March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF … LEADER AND … PARTY? 39

ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IT?

Which of these are you?

Base: 768 adults aged 18-75, from Election Uncut Community, 27/03/15 to 29/03/15

Removed common English words, otherwise image shows unedited verbatims. Data is qualitative and unweighted

41 PLEASE THINK OF THE THREE WORDS OR PHRASES THAT BEST DESCRIBE HOW YOU FEEL ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION CAMPAIGN?

Source: Ipsos MORI/BBC Election Uncut Community

Joe Murphy,

Political Editor at the Evening Standard @joemurphylondon

Vicky Pryce,

Chief EconomicAdviser at the Centre for

Economic and Business Research [email protected]

Thank you Q&A

Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing

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