IPCC 第5次評価報告書の概要 -WG1(自然科学的根拠) · PDF file2014年 環境省...
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Transcript of IPCC 第5次評価報告書の概要 -WG1(自然科学的根拠) · PDF file2014年 環境省...
2014
IPCC 51SPMTS AR5 WG P.105SPM 1
201412
2
3
1
10
13
15
22
26
27
37
40
1041
1144
1247
1352
1453
IPCC
AR5
AR5
32
5
2
4
5
6
7
8
56
57
58
59
.
IPCC56
361122592326
1(WG)5AR5SPM1
UNFCCC
2
.
3
1WG5(AR5)
200741
IPCC AR5 WG SPM
4
20dominant95 AR490
RCP0.34.80.260.82m
CO2
IPCC AR5 WG SPM
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.4, 27
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.17, 14-15
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.27, 17
IPCC
5
2015.1.9
.IPCC
WMOUNEP1988
3
IPCC
1WGI
2WGII
3WGIII
TFI
WGI
6
1 First Assessment Report 1990(FAR)
1990
2 Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995(SAR)
1995
3 Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001(TAR)
2001 66 50
4 Forth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007(AR4)
2007 90 20
5 Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2013(AR5)
2013~ 14
95 20
(WGI)
AR5
7
Virtually certain 99100%
Extremely likely 95100%
Very likely 90100%
Likely 66100%
More likely than not 50100%
About as likely as not 3366%
Unlikely 033%
Very unlikely 010%
Extremely unlikely 05%
Exceptionally unlikely 01%
IPCC AR5 WGI TS Box TS.1
IPCC AR5 WG1 TS Box TS.1
2015.1.9
AR5
8
. IPCC AR5 WGI TS Box TS.1 Fig.1
IPCC AR5 WG1 TS Box TS.1
2015.1.9
IPCC AR5 WGSPM p.4, 27
. 18502012
188020120.85[0.651.06]
3010185010
10
1.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.5, 2-3
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.5, 5-6
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.1(a)
90%90% IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.5, 3
1850 10
1951201219982012
11
19982012 100.05
19512012 100.12
1.
G. Meehl
HP http://www.aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/news/2013/20130718.html
. 18502012
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.15, 20-22
1850 1900 1950 2000
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.1(a) 11
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.15, 18
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.15, 19-20
()
12
. HP 18982014http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/temp/an_jpn.html
189820141001.15
HP
.19812010
19
81
-20
10
1.5
1890
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
=1.15/100
5
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
19011951
19011951
. 1901 2010 1951 2010
2.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.5, 24-25
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.5, 25-26
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.2
13
. HP http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/temp/an_jpn_r.html
1898HP
. 51mm 51981201030
14
()
1971201090
1971201040600700m30700m
. 19710700m
3.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.8, 2-3
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.8, 13-14
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.3(c)
15
197120100700m
. 1971-2010
m
19712010
3.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.8, 4
, IPCC AR5 WG Fig. 3.1(c)
16
199220053000m
.19922005 595
m
3.
/10
3000m
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.8, 11-12
, IPCC AR5 WG Fig. 3.3(a) 17
5~95%
5~95%
. pH
30
pH0.1
atm(1001)
3.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.11, 28-29
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.12, 11-12
CO2
pH
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.4(b)
18
()
19
+1.08/100+0.51/100
HP http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/data/shindan/a_1/japan_warm/japan_warm.html
. /100
99%95%90%[#]
()
20
., Blue Earth 2008 5-6 http://www.godac.jamstec.go.jp/catalog/data/doc_catalog/media/be95_all.pdf
.
21
()
20203020302040
. 20002040, 2060, 2090
/30
Yara, Y., M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber and Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around JapanBiogeosciences, 9, 4955-4968.
. Gtmm
Gt
mm
4.
20
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.9, 2-3
, IPCC AR5 WG TS Fig. TS.3_errata
22
Errata http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/figures/WGI_AR
5_FigTS-3_errata.jpg
1. 34
2. 789
4.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.9, 3-4
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.3(a) , IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.3(b)
23
1980
.
4.
10m: 15m: 20m:
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.9, 28
, IPCC AR5 WG Fig. 4.22
24
20127JAXA HP
()
25
JAXA HP http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/imgdata/topics/2012/tp120725.html
. 201271015
. 1958
40
(CO2)(CH4)(N2O)1750
5.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.11, 26-28
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.11, 31-32
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.4(a)
26
.
1950
/
10 90
6.
>99%,>90%,>66%,>50%
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.17, 11-13
27
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Table SPM.1
IPCC AR5 WG Annex:Glossary p.1454
.
1950
1970
1970
6.
>99%,>90%,>66%,>50%
28
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Table SPM.1
()
. HP http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/info/heavyraintrend.html
29
150mm80mm
HP
. 150mm, 80mm1,000
AMeDASAutomated Meteorological Data Acquisition SystemHP
BoxHP
HP http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/info/heavyraintrend.html
()
. 2013 P.24 2.1-6
30
3519312013 2013
. 35 1
5
20 dominant
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.17, 14-15
20
19862008
.
7.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.17, 14-15
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.19, 17-18
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.6
32
20
7.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.17, 25-26
.
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.6
33
1
. 17502011
1750
7.
CO2CH4N2O1750 201140%150%20%
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.13, 11-13
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.5
34
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.11, 25-28
-0.9W/m2
2 7.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.13, 35- p.14, 1
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.14, 11-12
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.5
35
. 17502011
RCP0.34.80.260.82m
2081210019862005CMIP5RCP2.60.31.7RCP4.51.12.6RCP6.01.43.1RCP8.52.64.8
4.8
RCP8.5CO2
RCP2.6CO2
8.
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.7(a)
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.8(a)
. 1986-2005
20812100 RCP2.6 RCP8.5CMIP5
. 1986-2005 CMIP5
(19502100)
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.20, 19-21
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.20, 21-22
37
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
IPCC AR5 WG SPM Table SPM.2IPCC
RCP8.5 +3.7 +2.6+4.8
RCP6.0 +2.2 +1.4+3.1
RCP4.5 +1.8 +1.1+2.6
RCP2.6 +1.0 +0.3+1.7
. 1986200521
38
8.
212081210019862005
() RCP
IPCC AR5 WG SPM
39
RCPAR5
RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.52100 RCP2.6 2.6 W/m2RCP4.5 4.5 W/m2RCP6.0 6.0 W/m2RCP8.5 8.5 W/m2
4 RCPRCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP 34 SRES21
9.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.20, 34-35
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.23, 5-6
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.8(b)
. RCP8.5 1986-2005
20812100 RCP2.6 RCP8.5CMIP5
40
m 1986-2005
RCP8.5 0.45 - 0.82
RCP6.0 0.33 - 0.63
RCP4.5 0.32 - 0.63
RCP2.6 0.26 - 0.55
. 2081-2100
21
4
(m)
. 21
1986-2005
10.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.25, 19-21
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.25, 15
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.28 J
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.9
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Table SPM.2
41
. pH 1986-2005
20812100 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 CMIP5
RCP2.6
10.
(pH)
IPCC AR5 WG TS p.94, 1-2
RCP8.5
. pH CMIP5
(19502100)
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.7(c) , IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.8(d)
42
RCP2.6 RCP8.5
()
43
2007) 7
59cm5( ) 59cmAR42120902099
WG2
(km2) 577 879 1.5
21
RCP8.59
. 95 CMIP5
(19502100)
. 9 20812100 RCP2.6
RCP8.5 CMIP5
11.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.24, 27-29
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.25, 2-3
5106km2 IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.2519
, IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.7(b) , IPCC AR5 WG SPM Fig. SPM.8(c)
1986200521CMIP5 19792012
44
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
RCP2.6 RCP8.5
21
. 9()2 1986-20052081-2100RCP4.5 2081-2100RCP8.5
1986-200515
1986-2005 2081-2100RCP4.5 2081-2100RCP8.5
9
2 2 2
9 9
11.
IPCC AR5 WG SPM p.25, 5-6
, IPCC AR5 WG Fig.12.29 45
21207620952019801999 8
()
46
8 P. S6
. 19801999 20762095
(cm)
21
2016-2035 21
2081-2100
/
.
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