IPB in Counterinsurgency (Part IV Insurgency COA Analysis )

US Army Combined Arms Center

IPB in Counterinsurgency

(Part IV Insurgency COA Analysis)


DetermineThreatCourses of Action

Define theOperationalEnvironment

Evaluate the Threat

Describe theEnvironmentalEffects

23

4 1

IPB 4

Assess the insurgent’s strategy and forecast his MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize and the enemy’s campaign plan and how he gains passive/active support of the population)

Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I

The enemy’s Strategy and capabilities (IPB III) to use Root Causes (IPB II) to specifically target and leverage the human and physical terrain (IPB I) to accomplish MD/MP COAs. In short this is the enemy’s campaign plan.

Visualize the specific groups that defines the limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical and human geography using ASCOPE (overlay). Identify each specific community or group.


"the hub of all power and movement, on

which everything depends, ... the point against

which all the energies should be directed"

- Carl von Clausewitz “On War”

Center of Gravity


Group Location Purpose

Insurgency COA AnalysisAKA COIN COI Analysis


Insurgent’s Desired Political End state

2nd Bn (US) /1st BN IA AO

InfiltratePolitical

Leadership

PoliticalWing

HarassingRocketsMortars

Attack MNF-IForces

Infiltrate IA

COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI

Insurgency

POLITICAL MILITARY

TribalClass

Division

ReligiousClass

Division

InfluenceEducation

SOCIAL ECONOMIC

Interdict Power lines

DisruptConstruct.

Effort

Disrupt SupplyLines

DisruptElections

Strategic End State

Operational OBJ Operational OBJ

Lines of Operation

Lines of Operation




InfiltratePolitical

Leadership

PoliticalWing


Attack MNF-IForces

Infiltrate IA


FRE

POLITICAL MILITARY

TribalClass

Division

ReligiousClass

Division

InfluenceEducation

SOCIAL ECONOMIC


DisruptConstruct.

Effort

Disrupt SupplyLines

DisruptElections

Strategic End State


Lines of Operation

Lines of Operation


COIN COI TEMPLATE

Strategic EndState

Strategic Directives(Lines of Operation PMSE)

Operational Objectives(From PMSE)

Location(Div, Bde, Bn)

Center of Influence

COI Enabler

PrincipalFacilitator

CounterFacilitator


FREAIF Group

PurposeLocation

Strategic EndState




Center of Influence

COI Enabler


CounterFacilitator

ENEMY COINCOI TEMPLATE




InfiltratePolitical

Leadership

PoliticalWing


Attack MNF-IForces

Infiltrate IA


FRE

POLITICAL MILITARY

TribalClass

Division

ReligiousClass

Division

InfluenceEducation

SOCIAL ECONOMIC


DisruptConstruct.

Effort

Disrupt SupplyLines

DisruptElections

Strategic End State


Lines of Operation

Lines of Operation


Enemy COIN Center of Influence Analysis

COIEnabler

Principal Facilitator

CounterFacilitator

Center of InfluenceCOG

CGE CGE CGE

PF PF PF PF PF PF

CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF

What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway or maintain the COI to support and gain support for their goal of disrupting the elections (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)

Finding COI: What aspect of the population does the enemy need to achieve freedom of movement, security, and support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)

What action does the enemy need to do to get the COI Enabler. (e.g. coerce Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad by bribing, threaten, kidnapping family member)

What can the friendly do to counter the enemy’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. engage Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad, provide security)


Friendly COIN Center of Influence Analysis


CGE CGE CGE

PF PF PF PF PF PF


What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway, or maintain the COI to deny the enemy the ability to disrupt the elections freedom of movement of the enemy in Bn AO (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)

Finding COI; What aspect of the population is needed to limit the enemy’s support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)

Thing or action do we need to get theCOI Enabler. (e.g. engage and provide economic incentives to Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad and his tribe)

What can the enemy do to counter the friendly’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. kidnap a member of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad’s family)

COIEnabler


CounterFacilitator




InfiltratePolitical

Leadership

PoliticalWing


Attack MNF-IForces

Infiltrate IA


FRE

POLITICAL MILITARY

TribalClass

Division

ReligiousClass

Division

InfluenceEducation

SOCIAL ECONOMIC


DisruptConstruct.

Effort

Disrupt SupplyLines

DisruptElections


Sunni Arabs

Imam ofMosques

I/O “Do Over”

Support of Moderate Sunnis

BribeAccess to

Mass MediaThreaten

Provide Charitable Materials

Hire Tribe

as PSD

Free Press

Graffiti

Paint overwith Quranic

Verse

Kill Key Personnel

Bribe

Safeguard Personnel

Hire asAdvisor

Tech.Skilled

Personnel

Start Business

Hire TechsCounter Facilitators


COG Enabler

COIN COG

COACOACOA COA COA COA COA

POLITICAL MILITARY SOCIAL ECONOMIC

Infiltrate Political

Leadership

PoliticalWing

Disrupt Election


Attack MNF-IForces

Infiltrate IA

DisruptConstruct.

Effort


Disrupt SupplyLines

ReligiousClass

Division

InfluenceEducation

COICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI

COICOI

FRE Desired End state

TribalClass

Division


Sunni Arabs

Imam ofMosques

I/O “Do Over”

Support of Moderate Sunnis

BribeAccess to

Mass MediaThreaten

Provide Charitable Materials

Hire Tribe

as PSD

Free Press

Graffiti

Paint overwith Quranic

Verse

Kill Key Personnel

Bribe

Safeguard Personnel

Hire asAdvisor

Tech.Skilled

Personnel

Start Business

Hire TechsCounter Facilitators


COG Enabler

COIN COG

COACOACOA COA COA COA COA

POLITICAL MILITARY SOCIAL ECONOMIC

Infiltrate Political

Leadership

PoliticalWing

Disrupt Election


Attack MNF-IForces

Infiltrate IA

DisruptConstruct.

Effort


Disrupt SupplyLines

ReligiousClass

Division

InfluenceEducation

COICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOI

FRE Desired End state

TribalClass

Division

COI


COIN IPB

Step IEnvironment

Who(Population)

Step IIEffects

How(Root Causes)

What(Enemy MPCOA)

Step IIIEnemy


IPB III

IPB I

IPB II

IPB IV Puts together

To do what

Who specifically the enemy needs

How to get them

IPB IV

04/21/23 32

COI Enablers

CounterFacilitators

Enemy Centerof Gravity

Principal Facilitators

What thing or person is needed to get, sway, or maintain the COI to support and allow freedom of movement in area in order to ambush MNF-I forces (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik, I/O theme)

Finding COIN COI: What aspect of the population does the enemy need to get, maintain, or sway in order to achieve freedom of movement, source of strength, security, and support in their operational goal -- e.g. (e.g. local Sunni population)

The action the enemy needs to do to get the COI Enablers. (e.g. coerce Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad by bribing, threaten, kidnapping family member, I/O theme promoted in tea shops, graffiti)

Thing or action does the friendly forces need to counter the enemy’s Principal Facilitators. (e.g. security for Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad, place sources in tea shops, paint over graffiti with pro-ISF message then place eyes-on and arrest insurgents attempt to deface new message (baited ambush)

EnemyI/O Theme

_________________

Enemy: ___Location (AO) ______

Strategy ___________Phase __________

Enemy’s Desired Endstate (e.g. Regain control of Iraq and MNF-I out)

Enemy Operational Objectives

(MPCOA/MDCOA)

Enemy Lines of Operation

Social EconomicPolitical Military

Enemy Operational Objectives



COIEnabler


CounterFacilitator


CGE CGE CGE

PF PF PF PF PF PF


What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway or maintain the COI to support and gain support for their goal of disrupting the elections (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)

Finding COI: What aspect of the population does the enemy need to achieve freedom of movement, security, and support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)

What action does the enemy need to do to get the COI Enabler. (e.g. coerce Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad by bribing, threaten, kidnapping family member)

What can the friendly do to counter the enemy’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. engage Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad, provide security)




CGE CGE CGE

PF PF PF PF PF PF


What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway, or maintain the COI to deny the enemy the ability to disrupt the elections freedom of movement of the enemy in Bn AO (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)

Finding COI; What aspect of the population is needed to limit the enemy’s support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)

Thing or action do we need to get theCOI Enabler. (e.g. engage and provide economic incentives to Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad and his tribe)

What can the enemy do to counter the friendly’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. kidnap a member of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad’s family)

COIEnabler


CounterFacilitator



Center of Influence (COI): Aspect of the population, thing, or ideal that is needed to support/achieve the enemy’s purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).

COI Enabler (CGE): What is necessary to get, maintain, or sway the COI in the context of that purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).

Principal Facilitator (PF): What needs to be done to have, do, access, get, or facilitate the CGE.

Counter Facilitators (CF): What can the friendly do or what can occur to neutralize the Principal Facilitator.

COA (Mission): How to neutralize the Counter Facilitators.



Center of Influence (COI): Aspect of the population, thing, or ideal that is needed to support/achieve our purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).

COI Enabler (CGE): What is necessary to get, maintain, or sway the COI in the context of that purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).

Principal Facilitator (PF): What needs to be done to have, do, access, get, or facilitate the CGE.

Counter Facilitators (CF): What can the enemy do or what can occur to neutralize the Principal Facilitator.

COA (Mission): How to neutralize the Counter Facilitators. (COA)


MosulCenter of

GravitySunni Arabs

Imam Abdel Rahim

Nasir fromDhi al-Nourein

Mosque

I/O Campaign“Do Over”

Tribal LeaderSheik

Mohammad

UseTea

Housegrid

FJ7483923

UseTechnical

SkilledPersonnel

ThreatenImam and

followers

Hire Tribal PSD

Capture FRE recruiter /

PSDWork noticesin Tea Shop

DoctorsAl Ahmed

Speakspublicly

Start Business

Hire Techs

CMOClinic

Kill Key Personnel

Kidnap /CoerceFamily

Members

Empower within

FRE

Recruit Sons

Recognizeinclude in communitydecisions

InvestigateSons

HireSons

asContractors

PSD

ProvideMedicalsupplies

PSDusing local contractors and hiring

tribal members

Bribe

Provide CharitableMaterials

to Mosquefor IDPs

COI

COI Enabler

Operations


CounterFacilitator

Thing or aspectneeded to get

maintain or sway

Action or Thing to get CGE

What counter for PF

How

COA COA COA COA COA COACOA COA COA COA


MosulCenter of

GravityKurds

Pesh Military CommanderCol Mustafa

Barzani

I/O Pro-National

ID/UnityCampaign

Local KurdishHero and

SpokesmanSheikh

Mahmmud Barzanji

Provideabsentee

balletsfor Pesh

from Airbil

Assign MNF-Itroops toPesh to

train and support

Use Kurdish spokesman

Sheikh Mahmmud Barzanji

(Word of mouth)

Use dual LanguageCapable

Personnel

AccessTo

MassMedia

Address his issues on

Kurds being displaced

(Arabization)

Attacktrucks

carrying ballets

PromoteMNF-I as

Pro-Kurdishand

Anti-Arab

Kurdish spokesman

AutonomousMessage

Kill spokesman

TargetBi-Lingual

+Educated

“No Friends but Mountain”

AttackTV, Radio,

Print Pax +

Structure

Kill spokesman

Iran JamsSignal

TurkeyCuts

ElectricitySilopi

Respect:Includein local

MNF-I Unittraining meetings

Learn schedule of training

meetingto AmbushCol Barzani

En-route

COA COA COA COA COA COACOA COA COA COAOperations

COI

COI Enabler


CounterFacilitator


maintain or sway

Action or thing to get CGE

What counter for PF

How


MosulCenter of

GravityKurds


Barzani

I/O Pro-National

ID/UnityCampaign


SpokesmanSheikh

Mahmmud Barzanji

Provideabsentee

balletsfor Pesh

from Airbil


train and support



(Word of mouth)


Personnel

AccessTo

MassMedia



(Arabization)

Attacktrucks

carrying ballets

PromoteMNF-I as

Pro-Kurdishand

Anti-Arab

Kurdish spokesman

AutonomousMessage

Kill spokesman

TargetBi-Lingual

+Educated


AttackTV, Radio,

Print Pax +

Structure

Kill spokesman

Iran JamsSignal

TurkeyCuts

ElectricitySilopi





En-route

COA COA COA COA COACOA COA COACOAOperations

COI

COI Enabler


CounterFacilitator


maintain or sway


What counter for PF

How

Prioritization and Unity of Effort

COA


MosulCenter of

GravityKurds


Barzani

I/O Pro-National

ID/UnityCampaign


SpokesmanSheikh

Mahmmud Barzanji

Provideabsentee

balletsfor Pesh

from Airbil


train and support



(Word of mouth)


Personnel

AccessTo

MassMedia



(Arabization)

Attacktrucks

carrying ballets

PromoteMNF-I as

Pro-Kurdishand

Anti-Arab

Kurdish spokesman

AutonomousMessage

Kill spokesman

TargetBi-Lingual

+Educated


AttackTV, Radio,

Print Pax +

Structure

Kill spokesman

Iran JamsSignal

TurkeyCuts

ElectricitySilopi





En-route

Operations

COI

COI Enabler


CounterFacilitator


maintain or sway


What counter for PF

HowTTPs will help confirm Operational Objectives

and Center of Influence analysis


MosulCenter of

GravityKurds


Barzani

I/O Pro-National

ID/UnityCampaign


SpokesmanSheikh

Mahmmud Barzanji

Provideabsentee

balletsfor Pesh

from Airbil


train and support



(Word of mouth)


Personnel

AccessTo

MassMedia



(Arabization)

PromoteMNF-I as

Pro-Kurdishand

Anti-Arab

Kurdish spokesman

AutonomousMessage

Kill spokesman

TargetBi-Lingual

+Educated


AttackTV, Radio,

Print Pax +

Structure

Kill spokesman





En-route

Operations

COI

COI Enabler


CounterFacilitator


maintain or sway


What counter for PF

How Write (focused) PIR, IR, and RFIs where information is needed


Fundamentals of IDAD/FID

Note: To be effective all must be done simultaneously at the Strategic, Operational, and Tactical level for the short, mid, and long range

Balanced development: “Negate the causes of the Insurgency”

Mobilization: “Popular involvement in progress”

Neutralization: “Separate the insurgency from the populace”

Security: “Safeguard populace and infrastructure”

Foreign Internal Defense: “Empowering the HN take the lead”


COACOACOACOACOACOACOACOACOACOA COACOA COACOA

Short Term Mid Term Long Term

Balanced

Development

Mobilization

Neutralization

Security

FID

COIN Validation + Evaluationbase onCOIN Principles

Protecting MNF/ISF Weaknesses

Exploiting AIF Weaknesses

COA

COA

COA

COA


Analyzing the Charts


Analyzing the Insurgency

AIF A AIFB

Strategic EndState




Center of Influence

COI Enabler


CounterFacilitator



AIF A AIF B

Helps Confirms Operational Goals Possible Collaboration

Unity of Effort for COA from Enemy Vulnerabilities (I/O, Security, mobilization)

Strategic EndState




Center of Influence

COI Enabler


CounterFacilitator



“Theory cannot equip the mind with formulas for solving problems, nor can it mark the narrow path on which the sole solution is supposed to lie . . . But it can give the mind insight into the great mass of phenomena and of their relationships, then leave it free to rise into the higher realms of action.”

- Clausewitz


QUESTIONS?


MNF withdrawalsRegain control

Economic

Political

Constitutionalreferendum

fails

AL Anbar

Infiltrate system “legitimate” political

party

Saladin Ninawa

Mosul

Enemy COG Friendly COG

SocialMilitary

Center of Influence


COI Enabler (CGE) is a thing or person (noun) that the force needs to get, maintain, or sway the Center of Influence (e.g. “IO campaign,” “the influence of local Sunni leaders”, “Mosques for indoctrination.”)

The achieve the Desired End state the objective in COIN is to deny insurgents access to the population

Principal Facilitator (PF) are the actions or things (verbs and/or nouns) used by the force to utilize, acquire, develop, or access the CGE.(i.e. “use techs for IO (websites, etc),” “bribe/coerce local Sunni leaders,” “obtain support of Imam”)

COIN COI Analysis

COI - The enemy’s main supporting strength. Generally the aspect of the population that supports the enemy’s striking force (e.g. Sunni Arabs)

Counter Facilitators (CF) are actions (verbs) of what to do to neutralize the Principal Facilitator.(i.e. “build company and hire techs,” “engage/protect local Sunni leaders,” “Iraqi Government engages local Imam”)


MNF withdrawalsRegain control

Economic

Political

Constitutionalreferendum

fails

AL Anbar

Infiltrate system “legitimate” political

party

Salahad Din Ninawa

Mosul

Enemy COG Friendly COG

SocialMilitary

Center of Influence

IPB in Counterinsurgency (Part IV Insurgency COA Analysis )

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Transcript of IPB in Counterinsurgency (Part IV Insurgency COA Analysis )