IOU Financial Inc. · Business model IOU’s business model is simple, scalable and has significant...
Transcript of IOU Financial Inc. · Business model IOU’s business model is simple, scalable and has significant...
Certain information set forth in this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address or discuss activities, events or developments that IOU Financial expects or anticipates may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "anticipates", "believes", "estimates", "expects", "may", "plans", "projects", "should", "will", or the negative thereof or other variations thereon. These forward-looking statements reflect management's current views and are based on certain assumptions including assumptions as to future economic conditions and courses of action, as well as other factors management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by such statements will occur or, if they do occur, what benefit IOU Financial will derive from them.
A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements, including, but not limited to risks inherent in growing a new business, dependence on third-party service providers, competition, regulatory risk, dependence on key personnel, risks related to rapid growth of IOU Financial, security and confidentiality risk, risk related to inability to attract borrowers and lenders, technological development risk, IT disruptions, maintenance of client relationships, litigation risk, volatility of stock price, and other factors that are beyond its control.
Additional information concerning these and other factors can be found beginning on page 22 under the heading "Risks and Uncertainties" in IOU Financial's management's discussion and analysis dated November 29, 2017, which is available under IOU Financial's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. IOU Financial does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any such forward-looking statements, unless required by applicable legislation or regulation.
Forward looking statements
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28%
72%
Shareholder summary
• US$500+ million – over half a billion of total loans originated since inception.
• 8,000+ loans made to merchants and small businesses across the US and Canada.
• 4th on the 2016 PROFIT 500 List of Canada’s fastest growing companies.
• Proprietary, fully integrated technology platform.
• 3-5 minute application process with approved loans funded in as little as 24 hours.
• Scalable operating and financial model.
A leading online lender to small businesses
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cumulative loans originated
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87.8M total shares outstanding
25.0M insider ownership
62.8M public ownership
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• Large market with growing demand
– Online lenders expect to originate US$47 billion in 2020 from just US$4.6 billion in 2014 – a 47% CAGR.*
• Significant growth potential in loan originations
– IOU expects to ramp up its growth rate to 25%-30% per annum, over the long-term.
• Improving operating leverage
– Increasing portfolio yield.
– Decreasing cost of debt capital over time.
– Implemented credit improvement strategies.
– Decreasing operating expenses as a percentage of revenues.
• Unique, proprietary technology platform
– Allows for industry-leading operating efficiency.
• Alignment of interests
– Management, directors, insiders and employees own approximately 30% of Company’s stock.
• Significant inflection point reached
– Reached break-even in the course of Q4 2017 on an adjusted earnings basis – a significant inflection
point in Company’s trajectory.
Investment highlights
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Source: * Morgan Stanley Research, “Global Marketplace Lending: Disruptive Innovation in Financials,” Blue Paper, May 19, 2015. Market size figures in USD.
The online lending industry
Online lenders will continue to
increase their share of the small
business lending market.
Larry Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary,
sees online lenders capturing a 70% market
share in small business lending.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, “Global Marketplace Lending: Disruptive Innovation in Financials,” Blue Paper, May 19, 2015. Market size figures in USD.
$4.6 billion
$47.0 billion
Size of SMB online lending industry
2% of the total market
16% of the total market
2014 2020
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$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
SMB lending in the USA since 2000
Small Business Loans (<$250K)
All Business Loans
Several key factors are driving the growth in online lending to SMBs.
• Banks have largely exited the small business loan market
– With a focus on larger loans, banks’ presence in the SMB loan market has been in decline for over a decade.
• Readily available institutional debt capital
– Institutional capital has been attracted by relatively high rate of returns available by lending in this market.
• Tremendous innovation and use of technology
– Ease and simplicity of the application process and the speed at which capital is delivered to merchants.
Industry growth drivers
Source: FDIC, Q3 2016 - Commercial and Industrial Loan Balances at FDIC – Insured Institutions under $250,000. All figures in USD.
Unmet demand
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Business model
IOU’s business model is simple,
scalable and has significant
embedded operating leverage.
IOU generates interest income from originated loans held
on its own balance sheet and servicing income from
originated loans sold to institutional investors.
The Company’s profitability is dependent on its cost of
capital, the credit performance of its loan portfolio, and its
operating efficiency.
Interest & servicing
revenues
Credit losses Interest expense Opex Operating income
IOU’s business model
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Loan originations & Loans under management
The past eighteen months was a period of
transition for IOU. By increasing pricing,
lowering its cost of capital, tightening
credit and cutting costs, IOU has emerged
stronger and better-positioned to
profitably grow into 2018 and beyond.
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$0.4 $2.4 $11.5
$49.5
$99.5
$146.4
$107.6
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Loans originated
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IOU will grow loan originations by:
• Increasing the number of loan brokers and capital
markets participants working with IOU.
• Continuing to add new strategic partners such as
banks and payment processors.
• Adding new products to complement IOU’s short-
term working capital loan product.
• Further geographic expansion into Canada.
$1.9 $11.8 $14.3
$27.5
$42.1 $35.0 $14.7
$42.7
$65.2 $28.2
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3 17
Total loans under management
Servicing portfolio
Principal portfolio
$26.5
$56.9
$92.7
$70.3
$60.9
$5.6
Revenues
IOU utilizes a hybrid revenue
strategy to fully optimize it’s
origination platform.
The yield on IOU’s principal portfolio has increased as
IOU raised pricing and introduced certain new fees and
measures to protect credit margins.
Servicing revenues declined as the Company shifted to
more of a balance sheet model in 2016.
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Note: TTM refers to “Trailing Twelve Months” as of Q3 2017.
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Note: “Servicing & other” revenues represent actual cash revenues and exclude certain non-cash items such as gains on servicing asset and amortization of servicing asset. “Portfolio yield” is calculated by dividing TTM interest revenues earned over the period by the average of the beginning and end of period commercial loans receivable balance outstanding over such period.
$2.9
$6.8
$13.3 $15.3
$2.5
$5.6
$4.7 $2.8
$0
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15
$18
2014 2015 2016 TTM
Revenue breakdown
Servicing & other
Interest
31.8%
37.4% 39.2%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2015 2016 TTM
Increasing portfolio yield reflects
increased loan pricing
IOU’s cost of debt capital has
decreased over time.
Interest expenses
$3.0
$15.0
$25.0 US base rate
+ 14%
US base rate
+ 12%
LIBOR
+ 8.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
$0
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Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 16
IOU’s borrowing evolution
In Q2 2016, IOU successfully negotiated a US$25M
(expandable to $50M) facility with MidCap Financial, a
company owned and managed by Apollo Global
Management, thereby lowering its cost of debt capital.
This facilitated:
• A slight shift to more of a balance sheet-funded
business model.
• Greater control over growth.
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Note: TTM refers to “Trailing Twelve Months” as of Q3 2017. As of Jan. 2, 2018, the US Base rate and LIBOR 1-month rate were 5.00% and 1.56%, respectively.
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Note: “Average net interest margin” is calculated as the average of four quarterly data points in a TTM period, with each data point calculated by subtracting interest expenses over the period from the portfolio yield (as defined on the Revenues slide) of such period.
16.1%
14.0%
10.8%
13.5%
11.4% 10.4%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TTM
Decreasing average cost of borrowing
Note: “Average cost of borrowing” is calculated as interest expenses divided by the average balance of debt outstanding over such period. The average balance of debt outstanding considers the average of five quarterly points-in-time, including the beginning and end of such period. Interest expenses and the average balance of debt outstanding includes both conv. debenture and credit facility interest expenses and balances.
13.2%
22.9% 25.3%
9.0%
13.9%
19.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2015 2016 TTM
Provisional loan loss and
net charge off rates
Credit performance
Compared to prior years, and particularly in 2015 and
2016, loss rates in the online lending industry to small
businesses increased over historical norms.*
In response to this, IOU pro-actively implemented
the following strategies to improve its portfolio’s
credit performance:
• A tightening of credit oversight.
• An aggressive litigation strategy to pursue
intentional defaults by borrowers.
• Improved servicing and collections processes.
These improvements should manifest in upcoming
quarterly results throughout 2018. The Company
believes that default rates should revert to the
mean and anecdotally, is seeing early evidence of this
in its more recent loan vintages.
Historical average provisional loss rate
Note: TTM refers to “Trailing Twelve Months” as of Q3 2017.
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Note: “Provisional loan losses” as defined in IOU’s financial statements. “Net charge offs” are calculated as receivables written off during the period as uncollectible minus recoveries of loans previously written off. * As per public disclosure from comparable companies operating in the online lending space listed on page 15 of this presentation.
IOU’s provisional loan loss and
net charge off rates have
averaged 16.6% and 12.8%,
respectively since 2014.
IOU’s scalable business model
provides great operating
leverage.
Operating expenses
In Q3 2016, IOU publicly announced a significant cost
reduction effort to set the table for sustainable growth.
• Goal of reaching quarterly adjusted opex of $2.0M
to $2.2M was achieved by Q3 2017.
• IOU anticipates average quarterly adjusted opex
of approximately $1.6M on a normalized basis in
2018.
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Note: TTM refers to “Trailing Twelve Months” as of Q3 2017.
Note: “Calculated adjusted opex as a % of adjusted revenues” is calculated as publicly anticipated 2018 normalized adjusted opex (which excludes certain non-cash items such as amortization and depreciation, stock based compensation, and certain non-recurring expenses) of $1.6M per quarter divided by TTM adjusted revenues.
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$2.7
$2.2
$1.6
$0.7
$1.4
$2.1
$2.8
2016 2017 Anticipated
Average quarterly adjusted opex
204%
77%
106%
79% 59%
50% 35%
0%
75%
150%
225%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TTM Calculated
Adjusted opex as a percentage
of adjusted revenues
$15.3
$6.8
$3.8
$6.4
$1.1
$2.8
$0
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$10
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TTM interest & servicing
revenues
Assumes credit losses had run
at historical average
Actual TTM interest expense Assumes opex had run at
$1.6M per quarter
Calculated operating income
Note: TTM refers to “Trailing Twelve Months” as of Q3 2017. “TTM interest & servicing revenues” represent actual cash revenues earned by IOU and exclude certain non-cash items such as gains on servicing asset and amortization of servicing asset. “Pro-forma credit losses based on historical average” is calculated as the average of the quarterly provisional loss rate over eleven quarters (Q1 2015 through to Q3 2017), multiplied by the TTM average commercial loans receivable balance as of Q3 2017. “Forecasted 2018 normalized adjusted opex” excludes certain non-cash items such as amortization and dep., stock based compensation, & certain non-recurring expenses. “Calculated operating income” is calculated as per the equation of the inputs illustrated above, and is subject to risks and uncertainties with no assurance given that any of the events anticipated by such pro-forma will occur.
Turning the corner to profitability
Adjusting IOU’s TTM results reveals a profitable Company
based on the following assumptions.
Reversion to mean + implementation of
proactive credit improvement strategies
Interest expenses remain
unchanged
Anticipated adj. opex: $1.6M per
quarter
Table set for sustainable,
profitable growth
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Proven & experienced team
Phil Marleau, CFA CEO
Formerly equity research at Merrill Lynch, CSFB, Scotia Capital
Robert Gloer President & COO
Formerly SVP East Region at First Franklin Financial
David Kennedy, CPA, CA CFO
Formerly CFO at Dale Parizeau Morris Mackenzie & CFO at Mirabaud Canada
Madeline Wade VP, Operations
Formerly underwriting at First Franklin Financial
Jeff Turner VP, Credit & Compliance
Formerly VP & Branch Manager at First Franklin Financial
Mark Schrews VP, Wholesale
Former nuclear weapons technician at US Navy & broker at Metro Brokers
Christophe Choquart, MBA VP, BD & Strategic Partnerships Formerly institutional equity sales
at Bear Stearns & Lehman Bros
Benjamin Yi, CFA Corp Dev & Capital Markets
Investment professional formerly at Dundee Corp & 1832 Asset Management
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IOU represents a very compelling investment opportunity.
• IOU is on the brink of profitability
– IOU is at a significant turning point having reached break-even status in the course of Q4 2017.
• Very few publicly-traded competitors
– IOU is a good choice for investors seeking exposure to a rapidly growing industry.
• Highly-aligned management team & insiders
– Insiders own 28% of the Company.
Comparables
Source: Company reports, Yahoo! Finance
Note: TTM refers to “Trailing Twelve Months” as of Q3 2017 for all companies. Share prices displayed reflect closing share prices as of February 5, 2018.
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Online lenders Valuation Price-to-sales ratio Price-to-earnings ratio
Company Ticker Share priceShares
outstandingMarket cap
TTM
RevenuesTTM RevPS Trailing P/S
TTM
Earnings TTM EPS Trailing P/E
Mogo Finance Tech (C$) TSXV:MOGO $4.62 22.3 $102.8 $47.2 $2.12 2.2x -$16.9 -$0.76 -
LendingClub (US$) NYSE:LC $3.62 414.9 $1,501.8 $548.6 $1.32 2.7x -$94.1 -$0.23 -
On Deck Capital (US$) NYSE:ONDK $4.31 73.3 $315.8 $169.9 $2.32 1.9x -$52.5 -$0.72 -
Peer group average - - - $640.1 - $1.92 2.3x - - -
IOU Financial Inc. (C$) TSXV:IOU $0.115 87.8 $10.1 $18.1 $0.21 0.6x -$4.8 -$0.05 -
IOU Financial Inc.
Corporate Presentation February 2018 For more information, please contact:
Benjamin Yi, MFin, CFA Corporate Development & Capital Markets
Email: [email protected]
www.ioufinancial.com