Investor Survey Report3 5 6 15 0 24 12 6 4 11 10 34 1 75 87 89 93 84 84 51 99 Jan 19 Mar May Jul Oct...

Investor SurveyReport

April, 2020

N: 90. Data collection: April 21 – April 25, 2019.

Survey Methodology

2

Sampling frame A selection of Credit Suisse’s institutional investors based in Mexico and abroad.

Sample size 90 completed interviews (51 Mexico-based investors and 39 investors abroad).

Type of sample Non-probability sample.

Interviewing mode Web survey with a structured questionnaire.

Method of data collection

An invitation email which included a link to the survey was sent to potential respondents. Anunique ID was provided in order to gain access to the questionnaire. The link settingsprevented the interviewees from answering the survey more than once using the same device.

Date of data collection

April 21 – April 25, 2020.

Data processing and adjustments

Results represent unweighted relative frequencies for each response category.Not all figures may add up to 100%, as a result of multiple response formats, roundingpercentages, exclusion of ‘neither/nor’ and ‘don’t know’ responses.

Design, Data collection and analysis

Buendía & Laredo, S.C.

Contact For more information on the methodology, please contactBuendía & [email protected](+52) 55 5250 5908


Current economic situation

3

B&L / CS Survey

Investors, Jan. 2020How do you think Mexico's current economic situation fares relative to one year ago? (% of responses)

Central bank survey (Banxico)

Experts, Mar. 2020Taking into account the current economic-financial environment, do you consider that the country’s current economic situation is better than one year ago? (% of responses)

Consumer Confidence Survey

(INEGI)

General Population, Mar. 2020How do you think the country’s current economic situation fares relative to the one 12 months ago? (% of responses)

13 1315

30 0 0 0 0 0

5 3

1612

0

87 8785

97100100 100100 100 100

95

97

84

88

100

Jan

19

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan

20

Feb Mar

Yes No

13

1815 14

12 12 1114

1816

14 14 1412 12

40

42

4240 41 40 40

38 39 39 3937

39 3835

47

40

43

46 4748 49 48

4345

4749

4750

53

Jan

19


20

Feb Mar

Much better/Better

Unchanged

Worse/Much worse

1 15

3 5 6

150

24

12

6 411 10

34

1

75

87 8993

84 84

51

99

Jan 19 Mar May Jul Oct Nov Jan 20 Apr

Much better/Better

Unchanged

Worse/Much worse


Current economic situation by residency

4

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

02

4

52

4

17

0

27

14

7

2

16 12

37

0

73

8489

93

82 84

46

100


Much better/Better Unchanged Worse/Much worse

B&L / CS Survey

Mexico-based investors

30

6

2

711

120

17

9

3

6

7 6

30

3

80

91 91 9286

83

58

97


Much better/Better Unchanged Worse/Much worse


Timeframe for the economic situation to improve

5

And how long will it take for the economic situation to improve? (% of responses)

[Only asked to those who answered “Worse” or “Much worse” in the Current EconomicSituation question]

14 15

18

7

25

2827

30

26

30

25

3535

27

30

28

Oct 19 Nov Jan 20 Apr

Less than a year Between 1 and 2 years

Between 2 and 3 years More than 3 years


16

13 14

4

27

33

19 2624

27 29

41

33

27

38

29




Timeframe for the economic situation to improve by residency

6

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


12

2021

11

24 20

35

37

26

33

22

26

38

27

22 26





9

149 10

32

33

42

34

16

22 2125

23

32

33

6

74

6370

65

45

35

25

60

11 0 0 0 0 0 0


Much better/Better Unchanged

Worse/Much worse Do not know

Future economic situation

7

B&L / CS Survey

Investors, Jan. 2020How do you think Mexico's economic situation will be in 12 months versus today? (% of responses)

Consumer Confidence Survey (INEGI)

General Population, Mar. 2020How do you think Mexico's economic situation will be in 12 months from now versus the current situation? (% of responses)

47

5144

38

33 32

30

32

37

32 29 30 29 2726

28 2834 34

3836 37 37

34

36 38 36 37 39

34

23

19 2126

28 31

32

30 2831

32 33 33 33

39

2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

1 1 1

Jan

19


20

Feb Mar




12

18

915

33 32

40

27

16

2724

29

29

37

36

6

72

53

67

56

38

31

24

67

0

20 0 0 0 0 0




Future economic situation by residency

8

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


0

9 94

31

36

43

44

1712

1620

15 25

31

5

8079

75 76

54

39

26

51

3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0





Measures to protect the economy from COVID-19

9

Would you say the Mexican government is taking or not taking adequate measures to protect theeconomy from the effects of COVID-19? (% of responses)

1

99

0 20 40 60 80 100

It is taking adequatemeasures

It is not takingadequate measures


Measures to protect the economy from COVID-19 by residency

10

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


2

98

0 20 40 60 80 100



0

100

0 20 40 60 80 100




Mexican measures compared to Latin America

11

Would you say the Mexican government is doing more, less, or roughly the same as other LatinAmerican countries to minimize the impact from COVID-19 on the economy? (% of responses)

0

91

9

0 20 40 60 80 100

More

Less

Roughly the same


Mexican measures compared to Latin America by residency

12

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


0

86

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

More

Less

Roughly the same

0

97

3

0 20 40 60 80 100

More

Less

Roughly the same


Tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity

13

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: A comprehensive policy response to thecoronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread ofinfections has dropped significantly (% of responses)

8

47

15

26

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Strongly agree

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Strongly disagree


Tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity by residency

14

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


4

49

16

27

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Strongly agree

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Strongly disagree

13

45

13

24

5

0 20 40 60 80 100

Strongly agree

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Strongly disagree


Abandoning lockdowns will lead to greater economic damage

15

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a timewhen the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economicdamage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk (% of responses)

8

58

23

10

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

Strongly agree

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Strongly disagree


Abandoning lockdowns will lead to greater economic damage by residency

16

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


8

55

25

10

2

0 20 40 60 80 100

Strongly agree

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Strongly disagree

8

63

18

11

0

0 20 40 60 80 100

Strongly agree

Agree

Uncertain

Disagree

Strongly disagree


70

60 59

52

13

18

29

2317

22

12

25


Good moment Bad moment

Unsure

Adding risk positions in specific Mexican financial instruments

17

Do you think this is a good moment or a bad moment to add risk positions in _______?

Mexico’s local government bonds* Mexican equities The Mexican peso

39

3026 18

44

3832

54

17

32

42

28



Unsure

35

26

38

23

3337 37

52

32

37

2525



Unsure

*The terms used in previous waves have been “Mexico's local currency sovereign bonds“ and “Mexico's sovereign bonds”.


Adding risk positions in specific Mexican financial instruments by residency

18

B&L / CS Survey Mexico-based investors

Mexican equities The Mexican peso

6460

62

45

16

21 27 29

20

19 11

26



Unsure

4737

36

25

33

34 33

53

20

29 31

22



Unsure

29

19

35

25

3844

47

51

33 37

1824



Unsure

Mexico’s local government bonds*



Adding risk positions in specific Mexican financial instruments by residency(cont.)

19

B&L / CS Survey Investors abroad

Mexican equities The Mexican peso

77

6156

62

1014

31

15

13

25

13

23



Unsure

30

1915

8

57

45

31

56

13

36

54

36



Unsure

41

37

41

20

2826 26

54

31

3733

26



Unsure

Mexico’s local government bonds*



32

36

28 26

4447

52

3432

3027

25

2528

23

22

35

31

4245

2319

20

37

1

3 34

86 5 7


Much higher/Higher Unchanged Lower/Much lower Do not know

Mexican stock market

20

How do you think the Mexican stock market will perform in the next 12 months relative to thecurrent level (in peso terms)? (% of responses)


Mexican stock market by residency

21

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


38

44

32

42

5356

58

37

3135

35

25

2726

29

30

31

21

33

31

18 18 13

31

0 0 02

20 0

2


Much higher/Higher Unchanged

Lower/Much lower Do not know

2023 22

8

33 33

46

3133

18 13

24

23

31

16

13

43

50

56

62

28

22

28

43

4 9 96

16 1410

13


Much higher/Higher Unchanged

Lower/Much lower Do not know


Moody’s decision on PEMEX rating

22

Were you expecting or not expecting Moody's decision to cut PEMEX rating below investmentgrade? (% of responses)

96

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

I was expecting it

I was not expecting it


96

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

I was expecting it


Moody’s decision on PEMEX rating by residency

23

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


95

5

0 20 40 60 80 100

I was expecting it



Mexico’s investment grade rating

24

Do you think that Mexico will lose or will not lose its investment grade rating by at least two ratingsagencies in the remainder of the Lopez Obrador government? (% of responses)

69

31

0 20 40 60 80 100

Yes

No


63

37

0 20 40 60 80 100

Yes

No

Mexico’s investment grade rating by residency

25

B&L / CS Survey

Investors abroad

B&L / CS Survey


76

24

0 20 40 60 80 100

Yes

No


Pemex's oil output

26

What do you expect Pemex's oil output to be one year from now (latest data point as of February2020 was 1.7 million barrels per day)?


Pemex's oil output by residency

27


Overnight rate

28

Which is your best estimate of the overnight rate (set by the central bank and currently at 6.0%) atthe end of 2020?


Overnight rate by residency

29


USD/MXN exchange rate

30

At what level do you think the USD/MXN exchange rate will close 2020?


USD/MXN exchange rate by residency

31

Investor Survey Report3 5 6 15 0 24 12 6 4 11 10 34 1 75 87 89 93 84 84 51 99 Jan 19 Mar May Jul Oct...

Documents

Transcript of Investor Survey Report3 5 6 15 0 24 12 6 4 11 10 34 1 75 87 89 93 84 84 51 99 Jan 19 Mar May Jul Oct...