Investor Presentation - Northland Power - Homenorthlandpower.com/cmsAssets/docs/pdfs/Investor...

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Investor Presentation October 2015 NPI.TO Executing on Growth

Transcript of Investor Presentation - Northland Power - Homenorthlandpower.com/cmsAssets/docs/pdfs/Investor...

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Investor PresentationOctober 2015

NPI.TO

Executing on Growth

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Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer

This written and accompanying oral presentation contains certain forward-looking statements which are provided for the purpose of presenting

information about management’s current expectations and plans. Readers are cautioned that such statements may not be appropriate for other

purposes. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or

include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “plans”, “believes”, “estimates”, “intends”, “targets”, “projects”, “forecasts” or negative versions

thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “would” and “could”.

These statements may include, without limitation, statements regarding future adjusted EBITDA or adjusted EBITDA, cash flows and dividend

payments, the construction, completion, attainment of commercial operations, cost and output of development projects, plans for raising

capital, and the future operations, business, financial condition, financial results, priorities, ongoing objectives, strategies and outlook of

Northland and its subsidiaries. This information is based upon certain material factors or assumptions that were applied in developing the

forward-looking statements, including the design specifications of development projects, the provisions of contracts to which Northland or a

subsidiary is a party, management’s current plans, its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as

well as other factors that are believed to be appropriate in the circumstances.

Although these forward-looking statements are based upon management’s current reasonable expectations and assumptions, they are subject

to numerous risks and uncertainties. Some of the factors that could cause results or events to differ from current expectations include, but are

not limited to, construction risks, counterparty risks, operational risks, the variability of revenues from generating facilities powered by

intermittent renewable resources and the other factors described in the “Risks and Uncertainties” section of Northland’s 2014 Annual Report

and 2014 Annual Information Form, which are both filed electronically at www.sedar.com and Northland’s website www.northlandpower.ca.

Northland’s actual results could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no

assurances can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur. The forward-looking

statements contained in this presentation are based on assumptions that were considered reasonable at time of delivery. Other than as

specifically required by law, Northland undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances

after such date or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, whether as a result of new information, future events or results, or

otherwise.

All figures are presented in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated.

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Northland Overview

Canadian-based Global Power Producer in business since 1987

Full lifecycle developers, owners, and operators of our facilities

1,332 MW* in operation (thermal, wind, and solar facilities) 1,042 MW (698 MW* net) under construction

* Represents Northland’s economic interest

Stability Growth Commitment

Well-diversified geographically and by technologies

Generate long-term stable cash flows

98% of revenues from long-term power contracts

Developing thermal, wind, and solar projects in North America, Europe, Mexico, and Latin America

Management has a vested interest through a 35% ownership interest

Northland maintains an annual dividend of $1.08

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Diversification by Geography and Technology

1 Kirkland Lake 101 MW*

2 Iroquois Falls 120 MW

3 Kingston 110 MW

4 Kavelstorf 7 MW

5 EckolstIädt 15 MW

6 Jardin d’Éole 128 MW

7 Thorold 265 MW

8 Mont Louis 100 MW

9 Spy Hill 86 MW

10 Roof-top solar 1 MW*

11 North Battleford 260 MW

12 Ground-Mount Solar 130 MW**

13 McLean’s Mountain 30 MW*

14 Grand Bend 50 MW*

15 Gemini 360 MW*

16 Nordsee One 282 MW*

*Represents Northland’s economic interest**Ground-mount solar: 120 MW in operations and 10 MW under construction.

Under construction Thermal

Biomass

Wind

Solar

In operation

12

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5

6

7

15

8

9

11

10

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Development andconstruction value

Operations cashflow to create value to service dividends

Initial risk

Greatest exposure

Diminishing risk

origination

OPERATIONSIN DEVELOPMENT ADVANCEDDEVELOPMENT

UNDERCONSTRUCTION

feasibilityconfirmed

signedPPA

financialclose

commercial operations date

Long Term Focus Delivers Value

Northland’s full life cycle commitment Captures development profits and provides stable cash flows over the life of facilities

to service the dividend

Preferred by power off-takers and lenders

Ensures quality projects are constructed to achieve performance and reliability

Ris

k/R

ewar

d

Stage

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Strong and Growing Financial Results

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

2012 2013 2014 2015F

Adjusted EBITDA

CAGR:29%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2012 2013 2014 2015F

Revenues

CAGR:28%

Mill

ion

s o

f $

Mill

ion

s o

f $

Prior Growth Initiatives Have Shown ResultsExpected to generate over $380 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2015

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Development – Our Pipeline

Development Pipeline Advanced

Development

Operating Assets*

1,332MW

> 2,200 MW

Construction*

698MW

Power contracts in hand

Finalizing supply agreements

Financing

Evaluate and focuson opportunities

that meet our investment criteria

Ensure projects are delivered on time,

and on budget

Operations and maintenance

Thermal 943 MW*Wind 280 MW*Solar 109 MW*

L o w e s t

* Represents Northland’s economic interest

HighestD E G R E E O F P R O J E C T C E R T A I N T Y

2015 Focus

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Focus on Executing Construction Projects

Offshore Wind EuropeProject Costs: Over €4 billion

Onshore Canada RenewablesProject Costs:

Over $400 million

Gemini600 MW offshore wind farm

COD: 201760% interest

Nordsee One332 MW offshore wind farm

COD: End of 201785% interest

Grand Bend100 MW onshore wind farm

COD: 201650% interest

Ground Mounted Solar1 x 10 MW solar farm

COD: 201562.5% interest

Management focused on executing 1,042 MW of projects currently under construction.

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Offshore Wind Projects – Construction

Gemini~85 kilometers

from shore

Two wind parks 75 turbines each

Nordsee One~40 kilometers from shore

54 turbines

Project Component Gemini Nordsee One

Cable Manufacturing Installation

100% 90% +

Started 2016

Turbine Foundations (Monopiles) Manufacturing Installation

100% 80% +

Started 2016/2017

Offshore Substation Manufacturing Installation

100% 100%

Started 2016

Turbines Manufacturing Installation

Started 2016/2017

To be started 2017

COD 2017 2017

60 kilometers apart

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Gemini – Project Overview

Gemini

Location North Sea, Netherlands

Capacity 600 MW (2 sites x 300 MW)

Capital Cost €2.8 billion

Northland interest 60% (360 MW)

Power contract Fixed price; 15-year contract with the Dutch government

Operations & maintenance Siemens (15 years)

Partners Siemens (20%), Van Oord (10%), HVC (10%)

COD 2017

Additional facts Will be largest wind farm in the North Sea and second largest offshore wind farm in the world.

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Gemini – Project Structure

Two party EPC contracting strategy

Clear contracting strategy that minimizes interface risk

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Gemini – Monopile Foundations

Installation of 1st Monopile on July 1, 2015

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Gemini – Offshore Substation Jackets

Installation of both jackets in August

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Gemini – Offshore substation installed on jacket

See appendix for more pictures

Installation of offshore substation on jacket

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Nordsee One – Project Overview

Nordsee One

Location North Sea, Germany

Capacity 332 MW

Capital Cost €1.2 billion

Northland interest 85% (282 MW)

Power contract A fixed price Feed-in-tariff subsidy for 10 years.

Operations & maintenance

Senvion (10 years)

Partners RWE Innogy (15%)

COD 2017

Additional facts Rights to develop two additional projects (Nordsee Two & Three) over the next decade.

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Nordsee One – Project Structure

The grid connection will be already built and Nordsee interfaces with the Transmission System Operator – TenneT – at the substation

Turbine Supply &

InstallationSubstation &

Installation

Offshore Converter

Station (TenneT)Onshore

Substation

Foundation

Supply

Cable Supply &

InstallationExport Cables

Export Cables

Nordsee I Transmission System Operator

Foundation

Installation

Five experienced contractors with specialized expertise, with buffers between contracts

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Grand Bend Wind Project

Onshore Wind Project

Location Southern Ontario

Capacity 100 MW

Capital Cost $384 million

Northlandinterest

50/50 partnership with First Nations

Powercontract

20 years (Feed-In-Tariff)

COD 2016

ConstructionProgress

- Foundation/excavation work

- Directional drilling, trenching, cable installation

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Offshore Wind61%

Solar8%

Thermal18%

Original NUGs

Onshore Wind7%

0000000000

2015

Adjusted EBITDA Diversification

2018

*The above charts are illustrative of managements objectives. They are based upon Northland’s operating facilities continuing to perform in a manner consistent with operations in 2015, with additions to Adjusted EBITDA from projects under construction and other adjustments resulting from power contract renewals primarily in Ontario all as described in our MD&A and 2014 AIF. The illustrations do not constitute a financial forecast, projection or guidance and are based upon assumptions that are subject to change.**Original NUGs refers to the Cochrane, Kirkland Lake, Kingston & Iroquois Falls power generating facilities.

Solar15%

Thermal41%

Original NUGs31%

Onshore Wind13%

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Development Focus

Larger projects

Target specific markets

Contracted power

Utilize preferred

technologies

Appropriate project return

thresholdsStable High-Quality

Projects with Attractive Returns

• Canada • Latin America• Europe

• Natural gas• Wind• Large solar

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pay

ou

t R

atio

Payout Ratio

Nordsee One equity raise

Payout Ratio Headroom on the Way

Northland undertakes major capital programs that elevates its short-term payout ratio

Last cycle included North Battleford, Spy Hill, and Ground-mounted Solar (2009-2013)

As Gemini and Nordsee One are constructed, the payout ratio will be elevated again by design until construction is completed in 2017

Both offshore wind projects reaching commercial operations will provide significant support to the long-term stability and future of Northland

This chart was compiled by management for illustrative purposes based on current financing expectations that are subject to change. The illustrations do not constitute a financial forecast, projection or guidance and are based upon assumptions that are subject to change

Gemini equity raise

100%

Normal payout ratio level prior to servicing dividends

for growth projects

600 MW Build-Out Program Off-shore Wind Build-Out

Cash Inflow from Build-Out Programs

North Battleford & Ground-Mount Solar achieve COD

100% Payout Ratio

Project Nordsee One and Gemini achieve COD

Headroom

Payout Ratio Headroom

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Stability and Growth: The track record and ability to deliver high quality results and reliable returns

Long-term focus: Delivering value for shareholders now and into the future by seizing opportunities that create attractive returns and sustainable growth

Commitment: Management has a vested interest through a 35% ownership interest

Summary

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Appendix

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Reporting of Non-IFRS Financial MeasuresThis investor presentation includes references to Northland’s adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, measures not prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, as presented, may not be comparable to other similarly-titled measures presented by other publicly-traded companies, as these measures do not have a standardized meaning under IFRS. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as alternatives to net income, cash flow from operating activities or other measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with IFRS. These measures are also not necessarily indicative of operating income or cash flows from operating activities as determined under IFRS. Rather, these measures are provided to complement IFRS measures in the analysis of Northland’s results of operations, and are used by management to evaluate the performance of the company for internal assessmentpurposes. Management believes that adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are widely-accepted financial indicators used by investors to assess the performance of a company. These measures provide investors with additional information to assist them in understanding these critical components of the company’s financial performance, including its ability to generate cash through its current operations. These measures have been applied consistently for all periods presented in this document.

Adjusted EBITDAAdjusted EBITDA provides investors with an indication of Northland’s capacity to generate income from operations and investments before taking into account management’s financing decisions and the costs of consuming tangible and intangible capital assets, which vary according to asset type and management’s estimate of their useful lives.Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as income (loss) before income taxes adjusted for depreciation of property, plant and equipment, amortization of contracts and other intangible assets, net finance costs, Gemini subordinated debt earned by Northland, fair value losses (gains) on derivative contracts, fair value losses (gains) on convertible shares, unrealized foreign exchange losses (gains), gain on the sale of chipping facility, write-down of Panda-Brandywine investment, elimination of non-controlling interests and finance lease and equity accounting.

Free cash flowFree cash flow is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities adjusted for net change in non-cash working capital balances, capital expenditures, interest paid, scheduled principal repayments on term loans, funds set aside for scheduled principal repayments and for asset purchases, restricted cash (funding) for major maintenance, write-off of deferred development costs, consolidation of managed facilities, income from equity accounted investments, proceeds from sale of assets, corporate credit facility renewal costs, and preferred share dividends. This measure, along with cash flow provided by operating activities, is considered to be a key indicator for investors to understand Northland’s ability to generate cash flow from its current operations.

Readers should refer to our MD&As accompanying our financial statements for an explanation of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and for a reconciliation of Northland’s reported adjusted EBITDA to its consolidated income (loss) before taxes and a reconciliation of Northland’s free cash flow to its cash provided by operating activities. These are filed from time to time on our company’s website www.northlandpower.ca.

APPENDIX23

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240 5 10 15 20 25

North Battleford**

Ground Mounted Solar**

Jardin

Germany

Mt Louis

Kirkland*

Cochrane*

Spy Hill

Thorold

Kingston

Iroquois Falls

Extension options**

Weighted average 13.1 years^ (without extension options**)

Remaining PPA Term for Each Operating Facility

*Represents Northland’s economic interest in the facility** Facilities with dashed bar graph represent option to extend the power contract for additional period^The weighted average PPA life is weighted by respective MW capacity. The thickness of each bar represents each facilities respective overall contribution to 2018 forecasted Adjusted EBITDA

Producing and Maintaining Stable Cash Flows – Long-term Focus

Weighted average 14.5 years**(with extension options**)

Iroquois Falls

Kingston

Thorold

Spy Hill

Kirkland Lake*

Mont Louis

GermanyJardin

Ground-Mount Solar

North Battleford

McLean’s Mtn

Grand Bend

Gemini

Nordsee

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Operating Facilities

* Facilities have option to extend power contracts. ** Northland has an effective 77% residual economic interest *** German electricity production is purchased by local power utilities at predetermined prices as required by German legislation^ SaskPower effectively assumes all natural gas-price risk under the long-term PPA

APPENDIX

Project Location Size Ownership Technology PPA Term Gas Term

Thorold ON, CA 265 MW 100% Natural gas cogeneration 2030 2030

Kingston ON, CA 110 MW 100% Natural gas combined cycle 2017* 2017

Iroquois Falls ON, CA 120 MW 100% Natural gas cogeneration 2021* 2021

Spy Hill SK, CA 86 MW 100% Natural gas peaking plant 2036 n/a^

Kirkland Lake ON, CA 132 MW 68%**Biomass and natural gas

combined cycle and peaking2030 2030

Mont Louis QC, CA 100 MW 100% Wind 2031 n/a

Jardin d’Éole QC, CA 128 MW 100% Wind 2029 n/a

Kavelstorf and Eckolstadt Germany 22 MW 100% Wind n/a*** n/a

Roof-top Solar ON, CA 2 MW 75% Solar 2031 n/a

North Battleford SK, CA 260 MW 100% Natural gas combined cycle 2033 n/a^

Ground-Mount Solar (Sites #1-12)

ON, CA 120 MW100% (90 MW)62.5% (30 MW)

Solar2033-2035

n/a

McLean’s Mountain ON, CA 60 MW 50% Wind 2034 n/a

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Construction & Development Projects

Project Location Size Ownership Technology Expected CODPPA

TermExpected Capital

Cost

Ground-Mount Solar(Site #13)

ON, CA 10 MW 62.5% Solar 2015 20 years Under review

Gemini Netherlands 600 MW 60% Offshore wind 2017 15 years €2.8 billion*

Nordsee One Germany 332 MW 85% Offshore wind 2017 ~10 years €1.2 billion*

Grand Bend ON, CA 100 MW 50% Wind 2016 20 years $384 million*

Under Construction

*Represents full cost of the project (100%)

APPENDIX

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FINANCIAL SUMMARY

Recent Share Price (TSX: NPI) $17.26

Shares (Common + Class A) 169 million

Institutional Ownership ~29%

Management Ownership ~35%

Annual Dividend $1.08

Annual Dividend Yield 6.3%

Total Debt, Net of Cash $3,549 million

Convertible Debentures (NPI.DB.B, NPI.DB.C) $243 million

Preferred Shares (NPI.PR.A, NPI.PR.B, NPI.PR.C) $261 million

Market Capitalization (Common + Class A) $2,924 million

Enterprise Value $7,139 million

Credit Rating (S&P)BBB Stable

Outlook

Financial Summary

APPENDIX

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Gemini – Monopile Foundations

150 Monopiles

Weight: 670 – 916tGEMINI

Length: 59 – 73m

Diameter: 5.5 – 7.0m

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Gemini – Monopile Foundations

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Gemini – Transition Pieces

150 Transition Pieces

Weight: ca 190t

Length: 21m

Diameter: 5.5m

GEMINI

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Gemini – Transition Pieces at port

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Gemini – Installation of Transition Piece

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Gemini – Cable Installation

Cable-laying – June 2015

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Gemini – Cable Installation near shore

Cable burial equipment

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Gemini –Installation of Offshore Substation Jackets

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Gemini – Offshore Substation

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Gemini – Offshore substations leaving port

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Gemini –Installation of offshore substation on jacket

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Adam BeaumontDirector of Finance

647.288.1929

Barb BoklaManager, Investor Relations

647.288.1438

[email protected]

Investor Relations Contacts