Investor presentation - Bpostcorporate.bpost.be/~/media/Files/B/Bpost/quarterly-results/2017... ·...
Transcript of Investor presentation - Bpostcorporate.bpost.be/~/media/Files/B/Bpost/quarterly-results/2017... ·...
May – July 2017
Investor presentationFirst quarter 2017
2
Investor presentation first quarter 2017
DisclaimerThis presentation is based on information published by bpost in its First Quarter 2017 Interim Financial Report, made available on May, 3rd 2017 at 5.45pm CET, and in its 2016 AnnualReport both available on corporate.bpost.be/investors. This information forms regulated information as defined in the Royal Decree of 14 November 2007. The information in thisdocument may include forward-looking statements1, which are based on current expectations and projections of management about future events. By their nature, forward-lookingstatements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors because they relate to events and depend oncircumstances that will occur in the future whether or not outside the control of the Company. Such factors may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materiallyfrom those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance is given that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. Theyspeak only as at the date of the Presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes inassumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This material is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a solicitation of any offer topurchase any securities.
Financial Calendarbpost at a glance
Highlights 1Q17 – 4Outlook 2017 – 5Overall guidance 2016-2020 – 6Overview – 7Products – 8Strategy – 9Domestic Mail: volume & revenue – 10Domestic Mail: regulation – 11Domestic Parcels – 12International Parcels – 13 & 14M&A strategy – 15DynaGroup – 16Ubiway – 17International parcels acquisitions – 18Additional sources of revenues – 19Transformation – 20Productivity – 21Vision 2020 – 22Hybrid network – 23CSR – 24Dividend policy – 25Summary of key financials FY16 – 26
More detail on 1Q17
EBITDA bridge – 31Key financials – 32Revenues – 33Domestic Mail – 34Parcels – 35Additional sources of revenues – 36Costs – 37Cash flow – 38
Contents
Additional Info
European mail market – 40Key contacts – 41
Balance sheet – 27Relationship with State – 28Management – 29
More on corporate.bpost.be/investors
10.05.2017Ordinary General Meetingof Shareholders
17.05.2017Payment date of the dividend
07.08.2017(17:45 CET)Quarterly results 2Q17
08.11.2017(17:45 CET)Quarterly results 3Q17
1 as defined among others under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
bpost at a glance
4
bpost at a glance
Highlights of 1Q17
Resilient underlying Domestic Mail evolution• Driven by strong and positive advertising mail volume trend
Organic cost evolution on track• Opex influenced by acquisitions (€ +153.0m)
• Increase in transport cost in line with positive international business evolution
Excellent parcels performance• Domestic: double-digit volume growth driven by e-commerce and C2C;
price/mix effect of -3.4% fully mix related• International: positive contribution from acquisitions, increase in flows
from China and the US, continued volume loss to China
-4.7%
+24.5%
+ € 11.4m
+ € 158.4m
Revenues up 26.4%• Driven by excellent parcels growth and acquisitions;
supported by resilient Domestic Mail
€ 764.0m
EBITDA up € 1.1m, fully in line with our guidance
BGAAP net profit of bpost SA/NV up € 4.3m
2017 outlook maintained
€ 176.9m
€ 94.3m
5
bpost at a glance
Outlook for 2017 – maintained
1 2Q17 will count 2 working days less, 3Q17 1 less on franking machines and 2 less on stamps and 4Q17 1 less on franking machines and 1 more on stamps vs. the same quarters of 2016.
Recurring EBITDA and dividend payment at the same level as 2016
RevenuesIncrease driven by:• Growth in domestic parcels: volume double
digit, around -3% price/mix effect• Continued growth in international parcels
supported by newly acquired businesses• Growing Ubiway Retail revenues• Partly offset by decrease in domestic mail1:
volume between -5% and -6%, average domestic mail price increase of 1.5%
Operating expensesIncrease driven by:• Increase in transport cost (reflecting growth in
International Parcels) • Integration of acquired businesses • Salary indexation expected as of July 2017• Partly compensated by continued productivity
improvements and optimized FTE mix, and• Continued cost optimization
Capex• Recurring and Vision 2020 investments ~€ 90m• Business development investments: Ubiway < € 10m
6
bpost at a glance
M&A on top of overall 2020 EBITDA guidanceAccretive contribution supported by strong balance sheet. Any decision must be evaluated on 5 criteria (cfr. p. 15).
We confirm our long term ambition of at least € 620m1 EBITDA by 2020
Overall guidance 2016-2020 as issued at CMD on 15 November 2016
RevenueIncrease driven by:• Growth in domestic parcels: volume +75%
at least (vs. 2015), -2 to -3% price/mix effect• Growth in international parcels: revenue x2
at least (vs. 2015)• Decrease in domestic mail: volume up to
-6%
Operating expensesIncrease driven by:• Increase in transport cost (reflecting growth in
International) • Integration of acquired businesses • Inflation• Partly compensated by up to 4% FTE & interim
productivity increase p.a. at current scope and• Optimized FTE mix
Capex• Further Vision 2020 investments in 2017-18: ~€ 90m p.a. excluding Ubiway capex • Maintenance capex level in 2019-20: ~€ 60m p.a. excluding Ubiway capex
Maintenance of dividend policyAt least 85% pay-out of BGAAP net profit
1 including acquisitions of FDM, Apple Express, Ubiway, Parcify and de Buren
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Belgium’s leading postal operator
bpost at a glance
2016 figures (normalized)
Leading market position in the resilient Belgian mail market with a balanced regulatory framework
Focused mail and parcels businesswith a proven strategy for profitable growth
Scope for continued cost improvements
Strong financial performancesupporting a high level of cash flow generation and dividends
Proven performance track record
Built on strong foundations and with ambitious targets
€ 2.4bnrevenues
€ 586.9m24.2%EBITDA
€ 496.5m20.5%EBIT
€ 324.1mnet profit
8.6mletters handled every day
148,000parcels handled every day
662 675post franchisedoffices post points
5sorting centres
24,850average # FTE & interims
8
A modern and diversified mail operator
bpost at a glance
Domestic Mail€ 1,414m58%
Transactional mail
1 58% Domestic Mail, 16% Parcels, 25% Additional sources of revenues and 1% Corporate revenue2 Including a.o. SGEI compensation for the retail network, philately, retailer products and Ubiway since 1 December 2016 (1 month)
€ 873m 36%
Parcels€ 379m16%
Additional sources of revenues€ 600m25%
€ 2,425m1
normalized revenues 2016
Advertising mail € 248m 10%
Press € 293m 12%
Domestic € 182m 8%
International € 190m 8%
Special Logistics € 8m 0%
International mail € 162m 7%
Value added services € 103m 4%
Banking and finance € 192m 8%
Other2 € 143m 6%
One integrated domestic distribution network for mail and parcels
International playerhubs in London LHR and Brussels
strategically located facilities in US, Canada, Poland, China, HK, Singapore, the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand
Revenues % of total
9
Focused strategy to create value and reward shareholders
bpost at a glance
We aremail
Wegrow
We arelean, agile & flexible
We are @core
10
We continue to focus on core mail businessVolume & revenue drivers
bpost at a glance
1 Source: bpost commissioned market research, 2016 (1,015 face to face interviews)2 Services of General Economic Interest
Transactional mail
Advertising mail
Press
• e-substitution mainly in administrative mail; however, 79% satisfaction level for the paper channel (vs. 54% on average for digital channels)1
• General cost cutting on all categories
• Mix effect: shift towards cheaper products or reduced weight of mail items
• Strongly linked to GDP growth (+1.2% in 2016, forecast 2017: +1.4%)
• Marketing mix is more balanced between different channels• Focus on 6 key segments with growth potential: retail & distribution (food +
non-food), automotive, FMCG (food), retail fashion, travel & leisure, SMEs
• Distribution of newspapers and periodicals are both part of the SGEIs2
• Revenues consist of:
• Compensation from the Belgian State: agreed in the newspapers and periodicals contracts (cfr. p. 28)
• Invoices sent directly to the editors
Illustration for search, number of times considered important per 100 purchases, end-to-end
11
bpost at a glance
Designated provider of the Universal Service Obligation until end of 2018
Fully liberalized market since 2011 with clear licensing conditions
Mail pricing regulation
• Collection, sorting, transport and distribution of postal items up to 2kg and postal packages up to 10kg
• Collect and deliver 5x per week• Cover full territory of Belgium
• Apply uniform tariffs and an identical service across the territory
• Cover 80% of the territory of the 3 regions within 5 years• Deliver 2x per week within 2 years
• Uniform pricing over entire territory
• Employ contractual workers
• For single piece mail & USO parcels falling within “small user basket”: 5 criteria to comply with, i.e. (1) affordability measured through the price-cap formula (inflation + quality bonus1 + unused credit), (2) non-discrimination, (3) transparency, (4) uniformity and (5) cost orientation
• Volume and operational discounts allowed for other USO products (bulk)
• Price increases done in practice on a yearly basis (1 January): +1.5% on average in 2017
We continue to focus on core mail businessRegulatory aspects
1 Quality bonus = [Average quality – 90%]^2 / 1,000; unused credit = cumulated price increases allowed under cap but not applied for last 3 years.
12
We innovate/grow within core competenciesWe have an established position in domestic parcels
bpost at a glance
Unique selling proposition
Offer best last mile and broadest delivery options, supported by acquisitions and partnerships:
• Home delivery 7/7 & evening delivery, including high-end deliveries (2-man)• >2,000 pick-up & drop-off points (incl. 750 open access Kariboo! points)• 150 bpost parcel lockers, 51 de Buren lockers (NL: 50, B: 1 → ambition: NL: 1000, B: 500)• Click & Collect• Non-exclusive partnership with DPDHL for B2C parcel delivery into Belgium
Ambition: We want to capture e-commerce growth and realize profitable volume growth of at least +75% by 2020 (vs. 2015)
CAGR 2016-20, %
0-3%
C2C
B2B
B2C
0-3%
~10-12%
B2C
C2C
B2B
Current parcel market100% = € 1,075m
13
bpost at a glance
We innovate/grow within core competenciesWe have a strong footprint in international parcels through Landmark Global
Asset-lightbusiness model
Strategic locations in
11countries
14
bpost at a glance
We innovate/grow within core competenciesWe enable global e-commerce through Landmark Global
Unique selling proposition Ambition
We want to at least double international parcels revenues by 2020 (vs. 2015) through a continued focus on cross border parcel shipments:
• North America and Australia: we will continue profitable growth
• Europe: we aim to become a stronger leader in parcels
• Asia: we want to gain a substantial footprint
Support mid-sized e-tailers to expand their business beyond their national borders
Provide additional services enabling customers to reach new markets at a reasonable cost without disruption
• Fulfillment services as an absolute differentiator• Full range of e-commerce and end-to-end
solutions
Offer services to more complex developing markets (e.g. Mexico and Brazil)
Enablers to realize our strategy
Further leverage our state of the art technology system Mercury
• Proprietary technology• Web-based, carrier-neutral platform• Easy integration with clients, vendors and new
acquisitions
Acquisitions and partnerships are key
15
We innovate/grow within core competenciesWe also support growth through selective and targeted M&A
bpost at a glance
Rationale
Respond to and anticipate market trends• Fast growing e-commerce
• Growing demand for convenience and proximity
• Leverage combination of mail and digital solutions
Leverage our strong balance sheet
Create an even stronger operator in a globalizing market
M&A strategy
Small bolt-on acquisitions to be the strategic partner of choice for our customers
Diversify in growing and profitable markets linked to our core competencies
Leverage and monetize our know-how in successful transformation of a postal company
Cross-border postal consolidation to create a stronger domestic and international operator
Illustrations
1 Not realized
1
1
Close to our core businessImprove our proximity and convenience product offering
Earnings accretive Maintain sustainable dividend policyMaintain financial solidity
16
bpost at a glance
Sales 2015: € 88.5mNormalized EBITDA 2015: € 6.8m (7.7% margin)Initial purchase price: € 51.0m
Rationale: support growth strategy of parcels
• We want to broaden the value chain in e-commerce
• We will further build out our hybrid network by adding capabilities to offer high-end deliveries
• We want to extend our footprint in The Netherlands with a strong player with an excellent track record. DynaGroup is market leader on the 2XL market segment.
We innovate/grow within core competenciesAcquisition of
E-commerce related high-end deliveries requiring non-standard, non-bulk transport with added value activities• Anytime: same-day, next day, weekend• Any size: S to 2XL (2man delivery with installation)• Safe & secure: ID verification & authentication• Anywhere: active through 7 locations throughout Benelux
Repair of e.g. smartphones, coffee machines, etc.
Supply chain services for banks and insurance companies: e.g. sensitive document handling, ID verification
• EPS & DPS accretive• Double digit sales growth for coming years• By 2020: sales x2, low double-digit EBITDA
margin• Total capex planned € 2-3m/year
Financial ambitions
(6 January 2017)
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bpost at a glance
Retail (220 shops)
Con
ven
ien
ce &
P
roxi
mit
y R
etai
l
• Pre-paid services (Alvadis)• Impulse products (Burnonville)
Convenience distribution
Pre
ssLo
gis
tics
Newspaper Magazines International press
Press distribution to 5,345 POS
Non
-P
ress
Log
isti
cs Parcels & Logistic Services(750 pick-up drop-off points)
Sales 2015: € 488.0m1
Normalized EBITDA 2015: € 14.0m (c. 3% margin)
Rationale for bpost
Diversify into the growing proximity & convenience distribution• Grow in line with convenience & proximity retail
market (4-6% annually 2015-20)• Footprint expansion (30 to 45 new stores in the
next 3 to 5 years) and remodeling• Accelerate product diversification in order to
enhance profitability
Further enable domestic parcels growth strategy• Improve delivery options and increase coverage
(network of > 2,000 points across Belgium)
• Fully cash financed (initial purchase price: € 84.5m)• Fully accretive as of 2017• Preliminary synergy estimate of € 4-5m annually
after full integration• Total capex planned < € 10m/year
Transaction details
We innovate/grow within core competenciesAcquisition of (30 November 2016)
1 € 431.0m disclosed in closing press release of 1 Dec. 2016, restated to € 488.0m under IFRS rules applicable to bpost
18
bpost at a glance
SPE (Poland)
Rationale for bpost
Support our international e-commerce cross-border parcels strategy• Offer complete service range to international e-commerce customers (including fulfillment)
• Further build out the US market through a complete service offering
Economize on last mile distribution• In-house last mile distribution vs. use of incumbent postal operators or alternative distributors
FDM (Australia)
We innovate/grow within core competenciesBolt-on acquisitions in international parcels
• Logistics, distribution and fulfillment across Europe for US e-tailers
• 100% acquisition in Nov. 2015, full consolidation as of Dec. 2015
• Third Party Logistics (3PL), warehousing, transport & distribution for US e-tailers
• 100% acquisition in March 2016, full consolidation as of April 2016
Apple Express (Canada & US)
• Last mile delivery, transportation and fulfillment for clients in Canada & US
• 100% acquisition in June 2016, full consolidation as of July 2016
Purchase price:
Sales 2015:
EBITDA 2015:
Key figures
€ 14.4m + earn-outs
c. € 24.0m
c. € 2.4m
Purchase price:
Sales 08/’15-07/’16:
EBITDA:
Key figures
€ 12.5m + earn-outs
c. € 26.1m
c. € 2.1m
Purchase price:
Sales 2014:
EBITDA 2014:
Key figures
€ 3.5m + earn-outs
US$ 3.4m
NA
19
We innovate/grow within core competencies bpost has other sources of revenues besides mail and parcels
bpost at a glance
Mail originating from foreign countries and delivered to other countries
International mailWhat?
Asset-light business model and fully variable costsDedicated sorting centre and hub in BrusselsActive in the US, Europe and Asia
Business model
Customer specific solutions which leverage our key assets: last mile, retail network and financial backbone
Value added servicesCollect and handling services for mailServices at the front door (gaz, water, electricity)Solutions tailored to specific needs
Associate 50/50 with BNP Paribas Fortis (bpost is sole retail agent)Agent of bpost bank~50% of revenue (commissions)
Payment services, cash at the counter, public finance solutionsDirect offering~50% of revenue
Banking & finance
decoderswap
20
Continuous improvement is in our DNA. We have a 10-year proven transformation track record…
bpost at a glance
2004• Building of new
sorting centres• Transformation of
the network
2003Start of continuous optimization of delivery rounds
2009Implemen-tation of new distribution structure with reduced number of buildings
2011-2020Strategic ‘Vision 2020’ program in mail service operations to further increase efficiency
2003New management
& start of the transformation
period
2006CVC and Danish Post enter into the capital
for 50%-1 share (split 50/50),
government holds 50%+1 share
2008Danish Post
sells its stake to CVC
2013IPO in June at € 14.5/share
CVC sells 30% in IPO and remaining 20% in December
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
jou
rney
Key
eve
nts
Normalized1
EBIT
1 Normalized figures are not audited
2007Automated roundsorting and mail sequencing
21
… and we have plans for further productivity gains supported by our natural attrition rate
bpost at a glance
Historic FTE evolutionAverage FTEs, ‘000
-3.7% p.a.
bpost has a systematic, well-rounded approach to identify and capture cost improvements across the entire organization
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
24
39
bpost has plans for further productivity gains supported by natural attrition and Vision 2020
38% of bpost’semployees are above 50
years old*
Age pyramidHeadcount per age, 31.12.2016
40-49
7,487
0-39
8,3119,565
50+
Civil servants
Non pay-scale contractualsPay-scale contractuals
2014 2015
* Natural attrition of c. 1,600 FTE p.a. of which > 50% is replaced as auxiliary postmen which cost c. 30% less than bpost average payroll cost/FTE
2016
22
Vision 2020 will drive substantial productivity improvements in the field
bpost at a glance
2017 2H17 2H182018 2019 2020 2021
Centralize & Automate Preparation
New BXParcels Sorting
DistributionNetwork
Install additional MSMs in 5 sorting centres (target 30 vs. 20 installed to date)
Centralize Mail Bag Preparation
Complete building
Install PSM & migrate parcel sorting
Reorganize distribution offices around 60 Mail Centres(~240 currently)
Transition to new distribution model
23
bpost at a glance
High performance hybrid networkWe will play an architect role defining which network is best suited to handle each type of parcel
We will capitalize on high density and synergy of our integrated networkWe will start using an ecosystem of networks in complementary ways
Parcify
bringr
Citydepot
External partners
Euro-Sprinters
• Sunday delivery• Evening delivery (6-9pm)• Urgent items• Volume peaks• 2-man delivery,…
• Highly specific• Urgent items• No packaging or label
• Urgent items• Non-standard format• Technical intervention
• City centers• Mobility• Green
• B/C2Me
Specific
Our integrated mail distribution and retail networks
Home delivery• Large volume• weekdays• Saturday• standard formatStandard
PUDO• 1,250 bpost points• 150 parcel lockers• open networks
DynaGroup• High-end deliveries
(same day, time slot, 2XL)
24
75
88
85
91
We want to keep stakeholders on board…
bpost at a glance
Distribution qualityPercentage letters1 in D+1
+6
2003 2015
Customer satisfaction2
Percent
+13
2003 2016
Environment
1ston the IPC
Environmental Ranking
Carbon disclosure project: B (C is average score)
Committed employer
Commitment & well-being
20162015
-15%
Recognize experience
Frequency rate work accidents
241 people graduated
1 D+1 delivery of domestic single piece items up to 2 kg, stamped at “Prior tariff”, 2016 figure not yet available2 “Satisfied customers” (score of 5 or above on a scale from 1 to 7 on the question: “Overall, how satisfied are you about bpost?”) based on bpost commissioned
survey by Ipsos-Synovate
Note: more information regarding bpost’s Corporate Social Responsibility is available on the website: http://corporate.bpost.be/sustainability
CO2 reduction objective: -45% by 2020 (vs. 2007)
25
We create value for shareholders
bpost at a glance
Dividend Policy
Annual dividend of minimum 85% of BGAAP net profit (unconsolidated)
Interim in December of financial year based on 10-month results
Final in May of year following financial year
Constrained by the net results of a given year + distributable reserves
Distributable reserves built gradually as from 2013, primarily to safeguard the dividend level in case of exceptional costs (€ 144m end 2016)
0.93 1.04 1.05 1.06
0.200.22
2013
1.13
+2%
20162014
+12% +2%
1.31
0.25*
2015
1.290.24
1.26
Final gross DPS (€) Interim gross DPS (€)
* Proposed final gross dividend per share to be approved by General Meeting of May 10, 2017
26
Summary of key financials FY16
bpost at a glance
Note: an Excel download of detailed financials per quarter is available on the website: http://corporate.bpost.be/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/quarterly-results/2017
€ million
1 Normalized figures are not audited
FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 % ΔTotal operating income (revenues) 2,433.7 2,425.2 2,407.6 2,425.2 0.7%Operating expenses 1,878.5 1,838.4 1,824.0 1,838.4 0.8%EBITDA 555.2 586.9 583.6 586.9 0.6%Margin (%) 22.8% 24.2% 24.2% 24.2%EBIT 466.1 496.5 494.4 496.5 0.4%Margin (%) 19.2% 20.5% 20.5% 20.5%Profit before tax 470.6 489.5 499.0 489.5 -1.9%Income tax expense 161.4 143.2 170.9 165.4 Net profit 309.3 346.2 328.1 324.1 -1.2%FCF 315.9 193.9 315.9 193.9 -bpost S.A./N.V. net profit (BGAAP) 287.7 308.7 303.6 286.5 -5.6%Net Debt/ (Net cash), at 31 December (549.5) (492.7) (549.5) (492.7) -10.3%
Reported Normalized1
Alpha social plan provision of
€ 54.5m
Gain from sale of sizeable building
€ 26.1m
Positive tax impact of
Deltamedialiquidation € 22.2m
27
Supported by a strong balance sheet
bpost at a glance
Assets
1 bpost has no pension deficit: as is customary in Belgium all pensions are paid as part of national social security
Equity and liabilities
786.0
373.7
36.7
550.9
2,290.3
58.4
484.6
Dec 31, 2016
39.5
399.7
717.0
Investments inassociates
2,448.4
Other assets
889.4
55.1
Mar 31, 2017
Trade & otherreceivables
Cash, cashequivalents
& investmentsecurities
Inventories
347.7
PPE & intangibleassets
2,290.3
Trade & otherpayables
2,448.4
849.9
Mar 31, 2017
355.7
1,129.1
Interest-bearingloans & borrowings
Employee benefits
56.0 57.7
Total equity
Provisions
Dec 31, 2016
1,037.5
356.7
58.758.0
779.3
€ million
Long term benefits• Pension savings days• Quota days• Part-time work
Other longterm benefits(disabilityannuities)
Deferred tax asset
• Mostly unfunded (no investment risk)
• Volatility mainly through the discount rate
• No pension liabilities1
Employee benefit liabilities
Termination(early retirement)Post
retirement(family
allowance,transport, bank, …)
162.8
82.14.1
107.7
48.4308.3
28
bpost’s long term relationship with the Belgian State
bpost at a glance
State as a long term shareholderBelgian State has >50% sharesbpost’s board is composed of 6 board members and CEO appointed by the Belgian State and 5 independent directors
Belgian State supports a regular dividend policy
bpost provides SGEIs1 on behalf of the Statebpost provides a range of public services.
2015Fifth Management Contract (covering 2013-15)
Compensation of ~ € 288m in 2015 based on Net Avoided Cost
2016-20202 press distribution contracts (newspapers & periodicals)
Sixth management contract for other SGEIs
Contractual amounts (excl. inflation2, volume impact & sharing of efficiency gains) of € 261.0m in 2016 (actual amount: € 264.9m), € 260.8m in 2017, € 257.6m in 2018, € 252.6m in 2019 and € 245.6m in 2020
State as important customerState is a key commercial client to bpost
Several other agreements in place with the State, such as European license plates (won by bpost through tender)
1 SGEI stands for Services of General Economic Interest2 All amounts need to be adjusted for inflation on a cumulated yearly basis
Shareholder
Belgian State
Free float
# shares
102,075,649
97,925,295
29
bpost’s management team and organization
bpost at a glance
Kurt PierlootDirector International & Parcels
Mark MichielsCHRO
Koen Van GervenCEO
Marc HuybrechtsDirector Mail & Retail Solutions
Philippe DuboisDirector Mail Services Operations
Koen BeeckmansCFO
Current Trading1Q17
31
1Q17
176.9175.9
117.1
51.2
EBITDA 1Q17
-158.4
Corporate Costs
-3.6
Additional sources of revenues
ParcelsDomestic Mail
-5.2
EBITDA 1Q16
EBITDA growth driven by excellent parcels performance and supported by acquisitions and resilient mail
Total operating income (revenues)
€ +1.1m / +0.6%
€ million
32
1Q17
Summary of key financials 1Q17€ million
1Q16 1Q17 % ΔTotal operating income (revenues) 604.5 764.0 26.4%Operating expenses 428.7 587.1 37.0%EBITDA 175.9 176.9 0.6%Margin (%) 29.1% 23.2%EBIT 153.9 154.2 0.2%Margin (%) 25.5% 20.2%Profit before tax 149.3 150.3 0.7%Income tax expense 53.4 54.2 Net profit 95.9 96.1 0.2%FCF 245.9 166.2 -32.4%bpost S.A./N.V. net profit (BGAAP) 90.0 94.3 4.8%Net Debt/ (Net cash), at 31 March (792.2) (659.1) -16.8%
33
1Q17
Total operating income (revenues)€ million
1 Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
1Q16 comparable
∆ 1Q17 % ∆
Transactional mail 223.7 -9.6 214.2 -4.3%Advertising mail 65.1 2.2 67.4 3.4%Press 72.9 2.2 75.0 3.0%
Domestic parcels1 43.9 8.5 52.4 19.4%International parcels 41.9 11.4 53.3 27.3%Logistic solutions 2.6 31.3 34.0 -
International mail 39.2 2.9 42.1 7.5%Value added services 25.5 0.5 26.0 2.0%Banking and financial 48.5 -2.0 46.6 -4.1%Distribution - 68.7 68.7 -Retail & Other 23.8 46.9 70.7 197.1%
Corporate 17.4 -3.6 13.7 -21.0%
604.5 159.5 764.0 26.4%
Domestic mail
Parcels
Additional sourcesof revenues
TOTAL
34
1Q17
Domestic mail underlying volume trend at -4.7% driven by positive advertising mail trendTotal operating income (revenues), € million
3.6
2.6
356.5
Volume
Price/Mix
361.7
-5.2
1Q16
1Q17
-11.3
Working dayimpact
• Very good performance against a tough comparable base at -4.0% for 1Q16.
• Transactional Mail: shift towards cheaper products and continued e-substitution.
• Advertising Mail: strong performance across all focus segments and specific campaigns, positive impact from timing of Christmas holiday and Easter (2Q17 vs. 1Q16).
• Press: Slightly lower volume trend mainly due to periodicals.
1 1Q17 had 2 working days more than 1Q16 for stamps and franking machines.
• Impacted by regulatory decision on small user basket pricing.
FY16 1Q17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 FY16 1Q17Transactional mail -5.9% -6.0% -5.3% -4.8% -7.4% -6.4% -5.9% -7.0%Advertising mail -3.0% 2.7% 0.1% -2.2% -1.2% -7.8% -3.0% 2.3%Press -2.8% -3.1% -2.6% -0.3% -4.2% -4.1% -2.8% -3.1%Domestic Mail -5.0% -3.9% -4.0% -3.8% -5.9% -6.4% -5.0% -4.7%
Underlying1Reported
35
1Q17
Excellent parcels performance, growth in Logistic Solutions driven by DynaGroupTotal operating income (revenues), € million
Domestic Parcels1 8.5
Logistic Solutions2
11.4
1Q17 139.6
1Q16comparable 88.4
International Parcels
+51.2
31.3
1 Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound2 New category, previously called Special Logistics
• Reported volume growth of +24.5% driven by e-commerce and the online C2C product offering.
• Price/mix of -3.4%: price increase fully offset by product & client mix effect.
• Growth driven by positive contribution from acquisitions and increase in flows from China and the US, continued volume loss to China.
• Consolidation of DynaGroup as of 1 January 2017.
36
1Q17
Additional sources of revenues driven by the acquisition of Ubiway Total operating income (revenues), € million
+117.1
254.11Q17
Retail & Other1 46.9
Distribution1
0.5
2.9
-2.0
International Mail
137.01Q16comparable
Banking & Financial
VAS
68.7
• Positive evolution driven by increased business mail volumes.
• Consists of Ubiway press distribution as well as convenience distribution through Alvadis (pre-paid services) and Burnonville (impulse products).
• Mainly lower revenues from bpost bank a.o. on savings accounts due to the low interest rate environment; partly compensated by Western Union revenues.
• Consists of Ubiway proximity and convenience retail as well as other revenues.
• Mainly Speos (document management services).
1 New category
37
1Q17
Organic cost evolution on track. Opex influenced by acquisitions (€ +153.0m). Increase in transport cost in line with positive international business evolution.Operating expenses excl. depreciation and amortization, € million
• Increase driven by acquisitions. Excluding scope change, increase driven by growth in the international business and lower favorable settlements in previous year’s terminal dues.
• Increase driven by acquisitions.
• Average reported FTE & interim increase of 1,586 leading to € +20.9m additional costs and explained by the integration of new subsidiaries.
• Favourable FTE mix of € -3.9m thanks to the recruitment of auxiliary postmen (€ -2.8m) and the reduction of management level FTE (€ -1.0m).
• Negative price effect of € +3.7m explained by salary indexation, CLA and merit increases partly compensated by tax shift.
• Increase driven by acquisitions. Excluding scope change, increase of rent and rental, maintenance and energy costs (linked to increased fuel price), almost compensated by the decrease of consultancy costs and third party remuneration.
FDM, Apple Express, Ubiway, DynaGroup, Parcify and de Buren
0.7
5.4
153.0434.0
+1.4
1Q17
97.4Other costs -1.8
587.1
Other SG&A
22.7
16.1
4.0
Transport
1Q16
1Q16 excl.one-off 432.7
One-off
Payroll & Interim
16.9
-3.0
428.7
• 2016 benefited from a positive impact from the increase of the recoverable VAT from 2016 vs. 2015 (EUR +4.0m) in other costs.
38
1Q17
Decrease in operating FCF1 mainly driven by acquisitions and phasing in working capital evolution
Mainly due to:• Lower proceeds from sale of buildings: € -1.2m• Purchase of 24.5% remaining shares in LGI: € -11.0m• DynaGroup acquisition: € -50.2m• FDM (Australia) acquisition cash outflow in 1Q16 vs. earn-out in 1Q17: € +8.6m
• Lower income tax paid relating to previous years: € +5.9m• Alpha pay-outs: € +10.9m• Excluding the above:
• Results of operating activities: € +0.6m• Working capital evolution: € -42.8m, mainly explained by a negative phasing
in suppliers and Social Security payments
1 Operating free cash flow = cash flow fro operating activities + cash flow from investing activities
• Payment of a dividend to minority interest in 1Q16: € +2.0m
1Q16 1Q17 Delta
Cash flow from operating activities +281.1 +255.6 -25.5Cash flow from investing activities -35.1 -89.3 -54.2Operating free cash flow +245.9 +166.2 -79.7
Financing activities -2.1 -0.3 +1.8Net cash movement +243.9 +165.9 -77.9
-12.4 -13.0 -0.6Capex
€ million
Additional info
40
A relatively resilient mail market vs. other European operators
European mail market
2008-16 CAGR for addressed mail volumesas reported by major incumbent European postal operators, percent
38
65
132
138
162
175
183
203
208
216
259
IT
EU
DK
FR
NL
SW
AU
UK
BE
DE
CH
Addressed mail volume per capita 2016 operator level*
1
11
3
8
6
7
10
5
2
4
SOURCE: Company information; Annual reports; Investor presentations; IPC; Eurostat
Note: definition of addressed mail may differ by operator1 Includes addressed mail2 Includes addressed mail3 Includes addressed mail4 Includes addressed mail
5 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing6 Includes addressed mail7 Includes addressed mail (publishers services excl.)8 Includes addressed mail excluding press9 Includes all domestic mail
-2.2
-3.1
-3.3
-4.2
-4.4
-4.9
-9.0
-9.4
-5.7
-3.6
IT
DK
NL
EU
FR
-12.5
SW
UK
BE
CH
AU
DE
3
9
4
5
6
7
11
10
1
2
10 Includes inland addressed mail11 Includes letter mail and addressed direct mail / media post
* Excludes domestic competitors
(1) 2015 data
(1)
(2) 2008-15 data
(2)
41
Key contacts
Baudouin de Hepcée
Director External Communication, Investor Relations & Public Affairs
• Email: [email protected]• Direct: +32 (0) 2 276 22 28• Mobile: +32 (0) 476 49 69 58• Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Saskia Dheedene
Manager Investor Relations
• Email: [email protected]• Direct: +32 (0) 2 276 76 43• Mobile: +32 (0) 477 92 23 43• Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium