Investor presentation August 2018 - Statnett · Investor presentation August 2018 2 Disclaimer This...
Transcript of Investor presentation August 2018 - Statnett · Investor presentation August 2018 2 Disclaimer This...
1
Investor presentation
August 2018
Investor presentation August 2018
2
Disclaimer
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The most important infrastructure. Of all.
The future is electric3
1
2
3
4
Focused investments
Business Risk: Excellent
Low finance risk
THE MOST IMPORTANT
INFRASTRUCTURE. OF ALL.
The most important infrastructure. Of all.4
1
Government (AAA) ownership and backing. Fully regulated.
The most important infrastructure. Of all.5
Critical infrastructure in one of the world's richest countries
Statnett is the TSO in the Kingdom of Norway (Aaa/AAA/AAA)
• "Pure play" - transmission
• No volume or commodity risk
• Organised as a State Enterprise – by law, only the government can be the owner
• On a mission from a supportive owner
- Category 4 State ownership (Sector political purpose)
- Politically sanctioned investments
- Proven support - equity injection and lowered dividends (50%25%)
• Fully regulated - low volatility in underlying earnings
• Stable regulatory regime, one of the longest track records in Europe
• The board committed to a "robust A rating"
- Issuer rating A2/A+ by Moody’s and S&P, respectively
See appendix for details on revenue regulation model
Ministry of Petroleum and Energy
The most important infrastructure. Of all.6
The Board
Customers
RegulatorNVE
Governance reflects the strategic role
One business –
functional
divisions and
subsidiaries
Long term state
ownership
The most important infrastructure. Of all.
Ownership and financing
7
CRITICALINFRA-
STRUCTURE
Predictable, mature
regulation
All investments
politically sanctioned
Ownersupport
"The TSO's essential role in the
power system makes it important that
these functions are unified
and owned by the State."
- 2012 Meld. St. No 14
(Government white
paper)
Full year 2017 H1-2018
Grid size (km high voltage lines) 12,000
Substations 160
Employees 1404
Balance sheet (NOK billion) 58.7 63.5
Revenues (adj) (NOK billion) 8.0 4.5
EBITDA (adj) (NOK billion) 4.3 2.5
Profit after tax (adj) (NOK billion) 1.3 1.1
The most important infrastructure. Of all.8
Financial snapshots
The most important infrastructure. Of all.9
Norway – hydro reservoirs supporting a greener Europe
• Norwegian power production dominated by hydro (96%)
• Power surplus – clean energy export
• Reservoir flexibility supports European renewables
Friday Saturday Sunday Monday
Storms "Dagmar" and "Egon"
hit Danish wind power,
turbines forced to shut down
“BUSINESS RISK:
EXCELLENT”
"Business risk: Excellent" - S&P10
2
_________
S&P
11
"Efficient electricity network" – S&P Global Ratings
"In our view, Statnett operates an efficient grid and transmission system with a proven ability to cope with the often harsh Norwegian terrain and climate. This is supported by several international benchmarking studies, which have shown Statnett's transmission operations to be among the most efficient European networks”
S&P Global Ratings, 21 February 2018
"Business risk: Excellent" - S&P
"Business risk: Excellent" - S&P12
“Moody's: Norwegian electricity networks operators benefit from
most stable and predictable regulatory regime among Nordic electricity
networks”
Moody´s Sector In-Depth Report, 15 June 2016
"Norwegian regulation is independent, well-established and
transparent with regulatory principles clearly defining risk allocation
between companies and customers and is consistently applied. The
ex-ante revenue cap regulatory framework has a 20 year track-
record, one of the longest within Europe, and its development has
been evolutionary. We note material changes to the regulatory
framework have only been implemented after significant
engagement, improving transparency and predictability"
"Business risk: Excellent" - S&P13
Cost based revenue with a regulated rate of return
• "Pure play" transmission - fully regulated
• No power price or volume exposure
• Allowed revenue – cost based - 100% when efficient
- Operating costs (with 2 year time lag, plus inflation, some costs are back-to-back same year). Depreciation is cash compensated same year
- RAB (as of 31 Dec each year), regulated return1 (WACC, 6.1% in 2017).
- Allowed Revenue annually adjusted to fit updated costs and rates – no regulatory period end point
- No "x-factor" (no general across industry efficiency improvement requirement)
• Allowed revenue distributed between customers through tariffs
- Differences to allowed revenues made up in subsequent years
- No significant counterparty risk - limited credit allowed and any losses would be picked up by all customers (included in allowed revenues)
1 Regulator has proposed moderate changes to the WACC formula from 2019. See appendix for details on revenue regulation model
0
1000
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RAB (index) EBITDA (IFRS) EBITDA excl. higher/lower revenues
"Business risk: Excellent" - S&P14
Stable earnings, driven by growing Regulated Asset Base (RAB).
Mill NOK
FOCUSED
INVESTMENTS
Focused investments15
3
Focused investments16
Experienced
builder
Security of supply
Focused investments
One defined mission
17
MISSION
ClimateValue
creation
“To develop the
next generation
power system
in Norway
by 2030"
• Already well under way
• Strong project track record
Focused investments18
Significant investments successfully completed
Execution
on track
Numerous major projects completed within the last 10 years
Consistent and
significant
savings
Focused investments19
Connecting the European power market
North Sea LinkCapacity app. 1400 MW
Est. compl. 2021
NordLinkCapacity app. 1400 MW
RAB 2019 with trial and
commercial operation in 2020
20
Significant domestic activities ongoing
Western corridor, substations package
1 and 2 (81%) Aug. 21
NSL Interconnector UK (31%) Dec. 21
Western corridor, package 3 (20%) Jun. 22
NordLink
Interconnector (62%)
RAB 2019
Inner Oslofjord subsea cable (97%) Dec. 18
As of July 2018. Percentages show progress. Dates indicate expected completion. Major projects.
Bjerkreim Transformer station (79%) Jul. 19
Sylling Reinvestment
(16%) Dec. 21
Smestad-Sogn station and cabel (22%) Nov. 21
Focused investments
21
Significant domestic activities ongoing
Balsfjord - Skaidi
(38%), Mar.23
Namsos - Nedre Røssåga
(93%), Aug. 20
Namsos - Åfjord and Surna-Snilldal
(74%), Sep. 19
Klæbu - Namsos
Voltage upgrade (97%), Dec. 18
Ofoten - Balsfjord
(99,7%), Des. 18
As of July 2018. Percentages show progress. Dates indicate expected completion. Major projects.
Focused investments
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Expected Investments Investments
Focused investments22
Bringing Statnett´s investments to a new level
Bill NOK
• Contractual obligations exceeding NOK 50
million amounted to NOK 12.7 billion as of 30
June 2018, with an estimated additional NOK 2.0
billion in a grid purchase option.
• Investments will stay at a high level until both
interconnectors are completed in 2021. After
2021, investment levels are expected to be more
moderate.
Focused investments23
Priority 1:
HSE
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
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Focused investments24
Health and safety comes first - always
• Injury frequency halved
• No severe environmental damages
• Stable absence due to illness: 3.4%
Number of lost time injuries (incl contractors) per mill hours worked (12 month rolling mean)
LOWFINANCE RISK
Low finance risk25
4
Low finance risk26
Prudent financial policies and low financial risk
Sufficient liquidity
• To fund operations, investments and redemptions over a minimum 12 months period
• NOK 8.0 billion committed RCF (undrawn, matures Jan 2023)
• EUR 200 million undrawn under loan agreement with EIB
• Normalised cash position: Approx. NOK 2.0 billion
Low counterparty risk
• Minimum rating requirement of A-
• Credit Support Annex (CSA)
Low interest rate risk
• Regulated rate of return 6.1% in 2017
• Seek to correlate rate on debt with NVE-interest rate (regulated return)
Domestic Bonds (NOK 11 160 mill.)
Drawn Bank Loans EIB* & NIB (NOK 7 034 mill.)
Issues in Domestic CPs (NOK 0 mill)
30 %
27 %
20 %
3 %
0,5 %
0,5 %19 %
0 %
Low finance risk27
Multiple sources of capital as of 30.06.2018
*Only drawn amount1
under EUR 300 mill loan
agreement with EIB
included
1) As of 30.06.2018: EUR 100 mill of EUR 300 mill drawn.
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
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4 500
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5 500
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6 500
7 000
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204
1
204
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204
3
204
4
204
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International Bonds Domestic Bonds Bank Loans (EIB & NIB)
Low finance risk28
Low refinancing risk as of 30.06.2018
Average time to
maturity: 8,8 years
Mill NOK
Rating Agency Short-term Rating Long-term Rating Outlook
Moody´s P-1 A2 Stable
S&P Global A-1 A+ Stable
Low finance risk29
Long term funding
• Credit Facility NOK 8.0 billion, undrawn EIB financing
• Strong and supportive bank group
• Robust A rating policy
Access to capital markets supported by
The owner of Statnett SF (The Kingdom of Norway), is rated Aaa/AAA/AAA by Moody´s, S&P and Fitch, respectively
Latest credit opinion report on Statnett SF from S&P Global: 21 Feb 2018, from Moody's: 12 Jun 2018
SUMMARY
Summary30
5
The most important infrastructure. Of all.
The future is electric31
1
2
3
4
Focused investments
Business Risk: Excellent
Low finance risk
Summary32
Key investment highlights
• Critical infrastructure in one of the world's richest countries,
the Kingdom of Norway (Aaa/AAA/AAA)
• "Pure play" - transmission
• No volume or commodity risk
• Organised as a State Enterprise – by law, only the government can own
• On a mission from a supportive owner
- Category 4 State ownership (Sector political purpose)
- Politically sanctioned investments
- Proven support - equity injection and lowered dividends (50%25%)
• Fully regulated - low volatility in underlying earnings
• Stable regulatory regime, one of the longest track records in Europe
• The board committed to a "robust A rating"
See appendix for details on revenue regulation model
APPENDIX
Appendix33
6
Under implementation Region Expected investment
in million NOK
Western Corridor, voltage upgrade South 6,600 – 6,800
Balsfjord – Skaidi (-Hammerfest), new 420 kV power line North 4,260 – 4,440
Namsos – Åfjord , Snildal – Surna, new 420 kV power lines Central 2,950 – 3,090
Smestad – Sogn, substation and cable installation East 1,250 – 1,390
Interconnectors
NSL - Interconnector to England EUR 750 – 1,0001)
NordLink - Interconnector to Germany EUR 750 – 1,0001)
Latest commissioned facilities
Increased transformation capacity East Norway East
Ofoten – Balsfjord, new 420 kV power line North
Inner Oslo Fjord, reinvestment cable connections East
Klæbu – Namsos, voltage upgrade Central
Appendix34
Key investments
1) Statnett's share
In million NOK
Unadjusted figures 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1-2018
Revenue 4 256 2 862 7 247 5 334 4 561 5 563 5 906 6 678 7 401 4 472
EBITDA 1 722 259 3 945 2 260 1 394 2 528 3 340 3 296 3 715 2 509
EBIT 1 194 -403 3 279 1 433 346 1 378 1 714 1 152 1 312 1 559
Profit after tax 1 517 -480 2 198 837 82 829 1 103 645 813 1 033
Adjustments
Accumulated higher revenue* 428 -633 1 554 3 455 2 413 1 790 1 346 343 -303 -342
Adjustment for changes in acc. higher/lower revenue -721 1 061 -2 187 -838 1 042 623 444 1 003 646 39
Adjusted figures
Adjusted revenue 3 535 3 923 5 060 4 496 5 603 6 186 6 350 7 681 8 047 4 511
EBITDA 1 001 1 320 1 758 1 422 2 436 3 151 3 784 4 299 4 361 2 548
EBIT 473 658 1 092 595 1 388 2 001 2 158 2 155 1 958 1 598
Profit after tax 998 284 623 234 832 1 284 1 427 1 397 1 304 1 063
Appendix35
Reconciliation of financial key figures
*) See note 4 in annual reportand note 2 in H1-2018 report
Appendix36
Predictable revenues and profitability dynamically adapted to costs
Efficiency score: 100%Successful benchmark with other
European TSOs. The 15%
efficiency programme initiative
Timely compensationNo time lag on investments, system service
costs or depreciation, two years lag on operational costs
(compensated with inflation)
2.5% + Inflation + 0.875 x 5%
(1-Tax rate)
Costs1 x 40% + Costs1 x 60% x Efficiency Score
2Regulated rate of return (2017: 6.1%)
1Revenues:
x 40%2 + (5y swap rate + margin) x 60%2
1) See separate slide for definition of costs 2) 40% equity share regulatory assumption – fixed parameter independent of company
Appendix37
Transportation Loss in grid in
year n-2, times updated power
market price in year n (which
takes away practically all price
risk for Statnett)
Cost of
Energy
not
delivered
times 0.6
Cost of
system
services
40% actual
+60% norm
Transit
costs
(back-
to-back)
Property
tax (back-
to-back)
Norm Cost = Cost Base * Efficiency score
Cost Base = O&Mn-2 * CPIn
CPIn-2
+ Dn + RABn * NVEraten
Revenue Cap = 0.4 * Cost Base + 0.6 * Norm Cost + TLn-2 * Pn + CENS + S + TrC + Ptax
Inflation adjusted operating
and mainenance costsDepreciation in
year n
Rate of return on Regulatory
Asset Base in year n
Note that the regulator calculated Dn and RABn*NVEraten in two steps, first with two year's timelag on Dn-2 and RABn-2,
then adding the increase in basis from n-2 to n. Total effect as described above.
Regulator's description available at: https://www.nve.no/energy-market-and-regulation/revenue-regulation/
Calculation of allowed revenue
Appendix38
Organizational structure
Knut HundhammerCFO and Executive Vice PresidentCorporate Finance and Services
Hundhammer was educated at the Norwegian Military Academy and has an MBA from Wharton School of Business in the US. He joined Statnett in May 2011, and is responsible for the Group's economy, finances, HR, HSE, legal affairs, risk management and quality. He has previously been Deputy Managing Director/CFO of Finansbanken ASA and CFO/COO of Høegh Autoliners. He has also been president of the commercial shipping division in the Klaveness Group, and a consultant for McKinsey & Co.
Auke LontPresident and CEO
Lont holds a Master's degree in econometrics from Vrije University in Amsterdam. He became President and CEO of Statnett in February 2009 after having held the position of CEO with the consulting company Econ in Norway. Lont has previously held top executive positions in Statoil, has worked in South Africa and was the CEO of Naturkraft AS. He has more than 30 years’ experience from the energy sector. Auke Lont is a member of the board of the employers' association Spekter and the railway infrastructure company Bane NOR
Appendix39
Connecting the European Power Market
NordLink• Interconnector between Norway and Germany• The last few years have seen a significant increase in wind power and
solar power in Germany. When the winds blow and the sun shines this creates a surplus of renewable energy in Germany, which also leads to lower prices than in Norway. Norway can then import this power and conserve the water in Norway's many hydropower reservoirs.
• When there is little production of wind power and solar power in Germany the need for power increases and the prices will be higher than in Norway. Norway can then produce hydropower and export it to Germany. This way we get more out of the resources on both sides of the cable.
North Sea Link (NSL)• Interconnector between Norway and the UK• The interconnector will link the Nordic and UK markets, providing
benefits on both sides• When the winds blow in the UK and wind power production is
high, Norway will be able to import power from the British to a lower price than in the Norwegian market and conserve the water in Norway's many hydropower reservoirs.
• When there is little wind and a greater need for power in the UK, the situation will be the other way around. The UK can then import Norwegian hydropower at a lower price than in the British market and through this secure the power supply.
• The advantages of this exchange of green energy include:• Increased security of supply because one can import more electricity at a lower price when the power situation is tight• Increased market for power producers when there is a surplus of power in the national markets• Facilitation of higher production and consumption of renewable energy in Norway, the UK and Germany, thereby contributing to future climate-friendly energy• More predictable supply situation and price throughout the year and from year to year
• Both projects are organized as "unincorporated joint ventures". Statnett holds 50%. Statnett's part in NordLink is organized in a wholly owned subsidiary, but fully financed by the parent company. Costs and trade revenues are shared equally. Counterparts are National Grid for the NSL and TenneT and KfW owns the southern part of NordLink through a jointly owned German company.
• Statnett's parts are fully regulated, revenues are cost based, same as for onshore grid. So the trade revenue risk rests with the customers.
Appendix40
The tariff
• Set by Statnett ahead of each year.
• Defines how Statnett distributes the allowed
revenue between different customer groups
• The tariff does not define the long term
revenue
• Any difference between collected tariffs and the allowed revenue is made up in subsequent years
• End result: Over time, Statnett ends up with the cost based regulated allowed revenue cap.
• Tariff is split between a variable part and a
fixed part.
• The variable part (approximately 20%) is
based on marginal transmission loss in each
node and billed weekly
• The fixed part is designed to cover the
remaining part of the allowed revenues. It is
allocated according to customer groups,
load/production and point of connection, and
paid mid-month for the same month
Appendix41
Financial information and contact info
Contact details:
Knut Hundhammer (Executive Vice President, CFO, Chief of Staff)
Tel. +47 23 90 32 10
Petter Erevik (Director of Finance)
Tel. +47 23 90 35 70
Availableat:
http://www.statnett.no/en/investor-relations/