Ideal Gas Law PV = nRT Brings together gas properties. Can be derived from experiment and theory.
Investor Overview · PV Market Growth and Competitiveness $-$50 $100 $150 $200 Gas Combined Cycle...
Transcript of Investor Overview · PV Market Growth and Competitiveness $-$50 $100 $150 $200 Gas Combined Cycle...
October 27, 2020
Investor Overview
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2First Solar Proprietary & Confidential - General
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are made pursuant to safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements concerning: effects resulting from certain module manufacturing changes and associated restructuring activities; our business strategy, including anticipated trends and developments in and management plans for our business and the markets in which we operate; our financial guidance for the fourth quarter 2020 and implied full-year 2020 guidance, future financial results, operating results, net sales, revenues, cost of goods sold, gross margin, gross margin percentage, operating expenses, operating income, earnings per share, net cash balance, capital expenditures, products, product improvements, efficiency, projected costs (including estimated future module collection and recycling costs), warranties, shipments, bookings, booking opportunities, backlog, confirmations, sales, supply, production, nameplate manufacturing capacity, solar module technology and cost reduction roadmaps, restructuring, product reliability, photovoltaic (“PV”) market growth and competitiveness, installed PV capacity growth, comparative levelized cost of energy, investments in unconsolidated affiliates, and capital expenditures; our ability to continue to reduce the cost per watt of our solar modules (and the impact of drivers to reduce such costs); our ability to expand manufacturing capacity worldwide; our ability to reduce the costs to construct PV solar power systems; research and development (“R&D”) programs, the impact of our copper replacement (CuRe) program; sales and marketing initiatives; the impact of U.S. tax reform; and competition. These forward-looking statements are often characterized by the use of words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “plan,” “intend,” “seek,” “believe,” “forecast,” “foresee,” “likely,” “may,” “should,” “goal,” “target,” “might,” “will,” “could,” “predict,” “continue” and the negative or plural of these words and other comparable terminology. Forward-looking statements are only predictions based on our current expectations and our projections about future events and therefore speak only as of the date of this presentation. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements for any reason, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: the severity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, including its potential impact on the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition; structural imbalances in global supply and demand for PV solar modules; the market for renewable energy, including solar energy; our competitive position and other key competitive factors; reduction, elimination, or expiration of government subsidies, policies, and support programs for solar energy projects; the impact of public policies, such as tariffs or other trade remedies imposed on solar cells and modules; our ability to execute on our long-term strategic plans; our ability to execute on our solar module technology and cost reduction roadmaps; our ability to improve the wattage of our solar modules; interest rate fluctuations and both our and our customers' ability to secure financing; the creditworthiness of our offtake counterparties and the ability of our offtake counterparties to fulfill their contractual obligations to us; the ability of our customers and counterparties to perform under their contracts with us; the satisfaction of conditions precedent in our sale agreements; our ability to attract new customers and to develop and maintain existing customer and supplier relationships; our ability to successfully develop and complete our systems business projects; our ability to convert existing production facilities to support new product lines, such as Series 6 module manufacturing; general economic and business conditions, including those influenced by U.S., international, and geopolitical events; environmental responsibility, including with respect to cadmium telluride (“CdTe”) and other semiconductor materials; claims under our limited warranty obligations; changes in, or the failure to comply with, government regulations and environmental, health, and safety requirements; effects resulting from pending litigation; future collection and recycling costs for solar modules covered by our module collection and recycling program; our ability to protect our intellectual property; our ability to prevent and/or minimize the impact of cyber-attacks or other breaches of our information systems; our continued investment in R&D; the supply and price of components and raw materials, including CdTe; our ability to attract and retain key executive officers and associates; and the matters discussed under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” of our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, and our subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, as supplemented by our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You should carefully consider the risks and uncertainties described in these reports.
| Important Information
Corporate Overview
Photo © Swinerton Renewable Energy
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4First Solar Proprietary & Confidential - General
Providing modules globally to:
Utilities Developers IPPs
EPCs
Commercial &
Industrial
Distributors
| First Solar Overview
5.5GWmanufacturing capacity
across 3 countries
45+countries with
First Solar modules
6 xlower carbon footprint than c-Si PV
$3.1B USD2019 net sales
20+ years
Founded in 1999
25GW+modules shipped
$19B USDFirst Solar Facilitated
project financing
90%+material recoverythrough recycling
Financial
Investors
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5First Solar Proprietary & Confidential - General
Market Opportunity
In the next five years, installed PV capacity globally is expected to double(1)
Unsubsidized utility-scale solar has a lower levelized cost of energy compared to conventional generation including coal, nuclear, and natural gas peaking plants(2)
Our Series 6 technology, product roadmap, and research and development are all key differentiators which we believe will enable us to meaningfully participate in this wave of demand for clean and affordable energy
Differentiated Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology with superior temperature coefficient and spectral response yielding an energy advantage in many climates
Proprietary manufacturing process which enables production of a CdTe module in a matter of hours and utilizes less than 2% of the amount of semiconductor material that is used to manufacture conventional crystalline silicon solar panels
Market leading Series 6 product, with an approximate 12 GW contracted backlog for deliveries in 2020 through 2023
Strong balance sheet which enables investment in disruptive technology roadmap
| Investment Thesis
Competitive Advantage
(1) EIA ‘Renewables 2019
(2) Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 14.0 (October 2020)
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| PV Market Growth and Competitiveness
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
GasCombined
Cycle
Coal Gas Peaking Solar PV—Thin Film
Utility Scale
Cumulative Global Installed PV Capacity(1) Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)(2)
609
939
1,195
2019 2022 2024
Cost Competiveness – A Driver of Growth
• Unsubsidized utility-scale solar has a lower
levelized cost of energy compared to
conventional generation including coal,
nuclear and natural gas peaking plants(2)
(1) EIA ‘Renewables 2019
(2) Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 14.0 (October 2020)
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(1) Announced exit of the U.S. EPC business and transition to a third-party execution model in Q3’19
(2) From time to time, we may temporarily own and operate, or retain interests in, certain of our systems projects for a period of time based on strategic opportunities or market factors
• Direct module sales presence in the United
States, Western Europe, India, Latin
America, Brazil, Middle East, Japan, and
Australia
Manufacturing Module Sales
Project Development (1,2) Operations and Maintenance
• Multi-GW project development pipeline
across the United States and Japan
• Evaluating strategic options for U.S. project
development business; launched strategic
process in June 2020
• Signed an agreement in August 2020 to sell
the North American O&M business to
NovaSource Power Services, a portfolio
company of Clairvest Group
• Series 6: Anticipate 2020 production of
approximately 5.8 GW
• Series 4: Achieved 2020 production target of
0.2 GW: production ended, company
transitioned fully to Series 6
| Business Segments
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| First Solar Across the Globe
6GW+Series 6 Shipped
25GW+Total Modules
Shipped
Manufacturing
Plants
Headquarters
First Solar
Modules
Regional
Sales Offices
Manufacturing and Technology Advantages
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| Vertically Integrated Manufacturing Process
factory1~4.5hours
module supplier
Poly /ingot
ingot to wafer
wafer to cell
multiple processes
3–4
3+days
c-Si Batch ProcessingFirst Solar’s CdTe Thin Film Technology
process1
Fully integrated, continuous process is quality-controlled under one roof
Supply chain traceability and transparency
98% less semiconductor material vs c-Si
Single glass substrate vs. multiple c-Si wafers
Lowest carbon footprint and fastest energy payback time available in the market today
factories
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● Leading-edge performance derived from over$1 billion in R&D investments
● Continuous technology enhancements lower LCOE and boost module efficiency consistently year-over-year
● Ultra-thin semiconductor film is 3% the thickness of a human hair
● Durable and encapsulated glass-on-glass construction stands up to rigorous lab and field testing
● Optimized design from manufacturing through shipping, installation, and recycling
|What’s Inside 20+ Years of Innovation?
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| Series 6 CuRe vs. Leading c-Si Bifacial Module Expected Energy Yield Advantage Over 30 Years (1)
…and up to 14.0% more than traditional c-Si.
Series 6 CuRe Expected to unlock
up to 10.0%more lifetime energy vs.
leading bifacial c-Si…
Cumulative Specific Expected Energy Yield Advantage % (Series 6 CuRe vs. Leading c-Si Bifacial)
(1) Reflects expected energy yield advantage of our next generation Series 6 CuRe modules as compared to leading c-Si bifacial and traditional c-Si modules, as applicable, over a 30-year project life. We expect to begin delivering Series 6 CuRe modules in the second half of 2021.
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13First Solar Proprietary & Confidential - General
Series 6
CuRe
Expectations
Improved efficiency,
temperature
coefficient, and long-
term degradation
Improved efficiency
reduces fixed and
variable CpW
Minimal change to
installation process or
support structures
Minimal change to
project development or
operating costs
No risk associated with
backside energy
c-Si BifacialBackside energy gain,
partially offset by lost
front-side wattage
Additional PV glass and
reduction in front-side
wattage modestly
increases variable and
fixed CpW
Taller posts needed to
maximize backside
energy gain
Increased vegetation
management costs and
insurance premiums
associated with cell
cracking risk
Energy prediction and
albedo uncertainly
associated with
backside energy gain
c-Si Large
Form Factor
Wattage increase often
driven by larger form
factor, not improved
efficiency
Larger form factor
reduces fixed CpW,
partially offset by added
variable costs
Machinery required for
installation;
Additional support
structures needed
Increased insurance
premiums associated
with cell cracking risk
Larger form factor
increases cell cracking
and wind load risk
| Technology, Cost, and Risk | Levers of ASP
Accretive to ASP
Increased Energy Lower Cost per Watt (CpW) Higher BOS Higher Dev. Costs Additional Risk
Dilutive to ASP
Relative value ascribed to energy,
capex, and operating expenses…
…varies by project site, geography,
market, energy price, and buyer
Sustainability
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| Responsible Leadership through Stewardship
Leading eco-efficient PV technology
Globally recognized for environmental performance and excellence
Member of RE100, a global consortium of companies committed to operating using clean energy
● Higher energy yields at competitive cost with the industry’s smallest environmental footprint
● Joint winner of PV Magazine’s inaugural Sustainability Award
● Committed to powering 100 percent of global operations with renewable energy by 2028
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| Creating More Value with Less Environmental Impact
Up to 6x lower carbon footprint than c-Si PV
Up to 4x faster energy payback time than c-Si PV
Up to 24x lower water footprint than c-Si PV
90%+ module recycling material recovery rate
Semiconductor layer is <2% the thickness of a silicon cell
First Solar’s sustainability advantage supports a circular economy
6xLOWER
90%+
4xFASTER
24xLOWER
<2%
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● First and industry leading global PV module recycling program with more than 10 years experience
● Recycling facilities in the USA, Germany, Vietnam, and Malaysia
● Modules are designed for high-value recycling and maximum resource recovery
● Recover more than 90% of semiconductor materials and approximately 90% of glass for use in new modules and other products
| Responsible Life Cycle Management
Operations, Bookings and Financialsas of October 27, 2020
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|Module Segment Update
Fleet-wide
Performance
Metrics
4.9 GW of year-to-date production(1), including 4.7 GW of Series 6
Each factory averaged over 100% capacity utilization during the third quarter
Commenced commercial production of 445 watt modules
16.9(2) / 17.7(3) MWs produced per day and 96.6%(2) / 97.2%(3) manufacturing yield
436(2) / 438(3) average watts per module and 92%(2) and 96%(3) ARC bin distribution from 435 to 445
Factory
Specific
Updates
International factories averaged 118%(2) / 119%(3) capacity utilization
Ohio factories averaged 109%(2) / 121%(3) capacity utilization
Vietnam factories achieved manufacturing yield of 98%(2,3)
Malaysia 2 equipment onsite; potential for production start up delays
Supply Chain
and Logistics
Vertically integrated CdTe manufacturing process has helped mitigate potential operational disruptions
Forward shipping contracts partially mitigated impacts of higher spot rates
Financial Module segment gross margin increased on a quarterly basis
(1) Data from January 1, 2020 through October 25, 2020(2) Data from September 1, 2020 through September 30, 2020(3) Data from October 1, 2020 through October 25, 2020
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| Expected Module Shipments(1) (GWDC): Systems + Third-Party Module
The above table presents the actual module shipments for 2020 through Sept 30, 2020, new module volume bookings through Oct 27, 2020, and the expected module
shipments beyond Sept 30, 2020. A module is considered to be shipped when the delivery process to a customer commences and the module leaves one of our
facilities. Expected module shipments do not have a direct correlation to expected revenues as expected module shipments do not represent total systems revenues and do
not consider the timing of when all revenue recognition criteria are met, including timing of module installation.
(1) Expected Module Shipments includes systems projects and contracted 3rd party module-only sales. Systems projects include (a) under sales agreement, (b) executed
PPA not under sales agreement, and (c) no PPA and not under sales agreement, but electricity to be sold on an open contract basis.
(2) 3.6 GW of net shipments deducted from backlog; 0.1 GW of 3.7 GW total shipments shipped to safe harbor the U.S. investment tax credit for future systems projects.
(3) Reflects bookings from Jan 1, 2020 to Sept 30, 2020.
(4) Reflects bookings from Oct 1, 2020 to Oct 27, 2020.
(5) Balance includes remaining shipment volumes as of Sept 30, 2020 and bookings through Oct 27, 2020. Shipments from Oct 1 to Oct 27, 2020 not deducted.
Dec 31, 2019 YTD Shipments as of Sept 30, 2020
YTD Bookings as of Sept 30, 2020(3)
QTD Bookings Q4’20(4)
Oct 27, 2020(5)
11.7 GW
3.8 GW
0.3 GW 12.2 GW
(3.7) GW(2)
(3.6) GW(2)
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| Quarterly Income Statement Highlights
(1) Actual, QoQ, and YoY amounts rounded to the nearest million and may not tie due to rounding
(In millions, except per share amounts)(1) Q3 2020A Q2 2020A Q3 2019A QoQ Change YoY Change
Net sales $928 $642 $547 $285 $381
Gross profit % 31.6% 21.4% 25.3% 10.2% 6.3%
Selling, general and administrative 50 52 54 (2) (4)
Research and development 23 22 25 0 (2)
Production start-up 13 6 19 7 (6)
Litigation loss - 6 - (6) -
Operating income (loss) 207 51 41 156 166
Income tax (expense) benefit (38) (10) (15) (28) (23)
Net income (loss) 155 37 31 118 124
Net income (loss) per share - diluted 1.45 0.35 0.29 1.10 1.16
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| Quarterly Balance Sheet Highlights
(1) Actual, QoQ, and YoY amounts rounded to the nearest million and may not tie due to rounding(2) Includes cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, and restricted cash(3) Includes accounts receivable trade, net & accounts receivable, unbilled and retainage, net(4) Assets and liabilities related to the agreement to sell our North American O&M operations
(In millions)(1) Q3 2020A Q2 2020A Q3 2019A QoQ Change YoY Change
Cash and marketable securities(2) $1,671 $1,642 $1,637 29 33
Accounts receivable(3) 307 352 532 (44) (225)
Inventories (current and noncurrent) 765 703 729 62 36
Balance of systems parts 34 35 69 (0) (35)
Property, plant and equipment, net 2,387 2,324 2,107 62 280
PV solar power systems, net 257 466 485 (208) (227)
Project assets - current and noncurrent 364 382 572 (18) (208)
Assets held for sale(4) 35 - - 35 35
Total assets 6,985 7,073 7,055 (87) (69)
Long-term debt - current and noncurrent 261 465 480 (204) (219)
Liabilities held for sale(4) 13 - - 13 13
Total liabilities 1,589 1,846 1,872 (257) (283)
Total stockholders’ equity 5,396 5,227 5,182 169 214
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| Q4’20 Guidance Assumptions
Strategic
Given the uncertainty around any outcome from the evaluation of strategic options for our
U.S. project development business, and the sale timing of our North American O&M business,
our fourth quarter guidance assumes no change to our existing lines of business or the
potential financial impacts
Shipments Fourth quarter module shipments guidance range accounts for potential project, financing,
logistics, and customer driven delays
Systems Sales Anticipate the Sun Streams 2 project will be sold in Q4’20 or Q1’21
Fourth quarter guidance range accounts for the financial impact of closing the Sun Streams 2
transaction
COVID-19
To date have managed the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has not had significant
effects on our operations
Guidance assumes continued mitigation of any such impacts of COVID-19 on supply chain
and operations without the incurrence of material costs
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24First Solar Proprietary & Confidential - General
| Q4’20 Guidance as of October 27, 2020
Q4’20 Implied FY’20
Net Sales $540M to $790M $2.6B to $2.9B
Gross Margin (%)(1) 26.5% to 27.0% 25%
Operating Expenses(2) $90M to $95M $351M to $356M
Operating Income(3) $50M to $120M $310M to $380M
Earnings Per Share $1.00 to $1.50 $3.65 to $4.15
Net Cash Balance(4) $1.2B to $1.3B -
Capital Expenditures $123M to $223M $450M to $550M
Shipments 1.8GW to 2.0GW 5.5GW to 5.7GW
(1) Includes $5 million of ramp costs for FY’20
(2) Includes $15 million of plant start-up expense for Q4’20 and $39 million for FY’20
(3) Includes $44 million of ramp costs and plant start-up expense for FY’20 and $27 million of Series 4 shutdown and other severance costs for FY’20
(4) Defined as cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and restricted cash less expected debt at the end of 2020
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(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
First Solar Competitor #1 Competitor #2 Competitor #3
Ne
t C
ash
(1) /(D
ebt)
(2)in
$ m
illio
ns
Note: ‘Net (Debt) / Cash’ is based on latest quarterly financial filings as of 10/29/2020; (1) Cash includes cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash; (2) Debt includes current portion of long-term debt, long-term debt and convertible debt
| Strong Balance Sheet | U.S. Listed Competitors
Long-Term Cost and Technology Outlook
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27First Solar Proprietary & Confidential - General
| Indicative Drivers of Long-Term Module Cost Reduction
20-30% reduction
(predominantlyglass and
aluminum)
95% 98%
30-35% increase
10-20% reduction
CuRe and other R&D programs
440 500watts
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| Series 6 Efficiency Roadmap
Note: Actuals represents fleet average year end exit rate
* = Forecast improvements inclusive of all R&D program, primarily driven by CuRe Phases 1-3
420
430
460
411
431
447
440
500
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
2018 2019 2020E Prior Mid-Term Target New Mid-Term Target
2017 Guidance Call (Nov 2016) 2017 Analyst Day (Dec 2017) Actuals Current Forecast
Watts per Module
CuRe Phase 1*
CuRe Phases 2&3*
Expected Launch Range
Record module
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