Investments, institutions and incentives for achieving food and water securityPresenter: Clemens Breisinger

This presentation is based on research from Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Claudia Ringler, Mark Rosegrant, Tingju Zhu et al. (all International Food Policy Research Institute - IFPRI)

This presentation:

1. Water projections with IFPRI’s IMPACT model2. Investment requirements3. Institutions and incentives4. Data challenges5. Conclusions and policy implications

Irrigation is key for securing future food supply

• Accounting for less than 20% of global cropland

• Contributing ~40% of global cereals production

• Key to boosting agricultural productivity (think about intensification…)

Irrigation is the largest water user

• 70% global water withdraw

• 90% global water consumption

Irrigation is seen as major driver of water scarcity

Access to drinking water matters!

Water, Irrigation and Food Security

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012

IFPRI’s IMPACT model

:

Already today (!), water-scarce regions account for 36% of global population (2.5 Bn) and 9.4 trillion USD (22%) of global GDP

How many people live in water short areas (%)?

How much GDP is generated in water scarce regions (%)?

> 50

< 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 50

No data

> 40%

20 - 40%

0 - 20%

2010

36

18

46

> 40%

0 - 20%

1922

2010

20 - 40%

59

2010

2.5 Bn people

9.4 trillion USD2

Water stress, percent of total renewable water withdrawn

1 >40% water stress2 Year 2000 prices

Source: IFPRI team analysis, based on IFPRI’s IMPACT model

How much and what kind of investments in water and related sectors are needed?

• Baseline and “grey” scenarios • High investment in agricultural research• Low investment in agricultural research• High investment in agricultural research plus– Irrigation expansion and water use efficiency – Rural roads– Access to drinking water– Secondary female education

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

In a “grey” scenario and without productivity investment, water stress will increase with an additional 450 m people and 5.6 trillion GDP at risk

Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI, 2011

For Arab countries and many other dry land countries, water stress will pose a risk to economic growth

Size of bubble reflects size of population

Source: IFPRI team analysis

Water stress 2050 over GDP growth 2010-2050 – Medium growth

Even highly industrialized countries like US will face critical water scarcity without investing in water productivity

Source: IFPRI team analysis, based on IFPRI’s IMPACT model

Annual investment requirements: Alternative Scenarios

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

With significant water productivity investments, ~1 bn people and 17 trillion USD of GDP can be moved into areas of lower water scarcity

Source: Veolia Water & IFPRI 2011

Reduction in the number of malnourished children in developing countries, 2000, 2025, 2050

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

However, investments alone are not sufficient: Policies, institutions and incentives at different levels matter!

Source: Ruth Meinzen Dick 2013, based on CAPRi box framework .

Coordination institutions• Can be provided by:– State (a public tubewell that supplies many farms), – Collective action (farmer group) – Markets (farmer selling water).

• Which is most appropriate depends on:– Scale– Technical sophistication of technology and farmers– Cultural factors (social capital, market orientation)– Capacity of state, market institutions, etc.

Source: Ruth Meinzen Dick 2013

Farm level: management practices for more efficient water use

• Enhanced water infiltration: mulching; deep tillage; contour farming; special terraces (e.g., flat-channel)

• Decrease soil water evaporation: conservation tillage (e.g., no-till or minimum till)

• Deficit irrigation: apply predetermined percentage of calculated potential plant water

• Advanced irrigation technology (drip, micro-sprinkler, real-time management)

Policy level: Economic incentives for efficient water use

• Establish water rights for users• Restructure subsidies that distort production

decisions• Invest savings in activities that boost farm output

and income, especially for the poor

Action and research for improving food and water security requires data and tools

Water from an ARAB SPATIAL perspective

Oil-food-income

Policy recommendations• Without additional investments in water, food insecurity will

rise• Increase investment in household water supply and

sanitation and irrigation, emphasizing technology (drip, micro-sprinkler, real-time management)

• Restructure subsidies that distort production decisions and invest savings in activities that boost farm output and income

• Investments alone are not sufficient, improved institutions and incentives are necessary

• For effective policymaking, we need to improve access and analysis of data