Investment Strategy June 12, 2020 · Global stock markets plummeted, so SET Index would plunge too....

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The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities.

Investment Strategy

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Dividend, defensive stocks advisable amid correction SET Index fell as expected yesterday and probably falls further today due to global negative factors. We recommend dividend and defensive stocks, while making stop profit points would help secure profit. After we sold BDMS (15% of portfolio) to stop profit yesterday (securing 9% gain), today we buy BTSGIF to take a rest for low beta and high discount from NAV. Top picks today are DCC and EGCO. Main focus today revolves around lockdown easing phase 4. Almost all businesses are anticipated to be reopened and curfew is projected to be lifted, so economic activities would recover even though the situation is still far from normal. At central bank meetings next week, many countries are still expected to keep using intensive easing measures. Countries with positive real interest rates are expected to cut interest rates further, while those with negative real interest rates are projected to directly inject money into the economic system.

SET Index 1,396.77 Change (pts) -22.00 Market Cap (Million B) 82,893

Net Trading Value by Investor Type (Million B) Foreign -752.80 Proprietary -434.27 Institutional -4,111.30 Retail 5,298.37

RESEARCH DIVISION

Asia Plus Securities

Therdsak Thaveeteeratham Fundamental Investment Analyst on Capital Market,

Technical Investment Analyst License No: 004132

Paradorn Tiaranapramote

Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities License No: 075365

Takit Chardcherdsak


Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn


Pawat Pattrapong

Quantitative Analyst Assistant

U.S. Stock Market vs U.S. New Case Count

Source: ASPS Research

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DJIA Index New inflection (rhs)Cases

Global stock markets plummeted, so SET Index would plunge too. We recommend dividend and defensive stocks, while good stop profit discipline would secure gain. Yesterday we sell BDMD to stop profit for 9% gain; we replace it with BTSGIF (safe haven). Top picks are DCC and EGCO.

June 12, 2020

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MARKET TALK Investment Strategy

Global stock markets, crude oil prices fall due to COVID-19 Global stock markets fell yesterday, especially US-based Dow Jones (-6.9%) and S&P500 (-5.9%), mainly due to fear about the second wave of COVID-19 infection in the US. There were 21,557 new COVID-19 cases in the US yesterday, worse than 18,500 cases per day on average earlier this week. This would have negative sentiment on Asian markets as well as SET Index today.

Global crude oil prices also plunged 8% below US$40, especially Brent price that fell to US$38.55, mainly due to concern about a decline in oil demand.

Energy – Lower oil prices hurt oil stocks like PTTEP(FV@B100) and PTT(FV@B42). Oil prices already rallied and made a three-month highs in early-June, probably a short-term rise after the OPEC extended the oil production curb by 9.7 million bpd for one month to July (from June). We still expect crude oil price to drop further as the OPEC plans smaller output curb. We reiterate buying on weakness.

Refinery – Refinery plays, e.g. TOP(FV@B43), BCP([email protected]), PTTGCFV@45), and IRPC([email protected]), already rallied despite weak fundamentals. GRM is now very low, based on Singapore GRM of minus US$0.5-2/barrel, while 2Q20 earnings would be driven solely by stock gain. Thus, refinery plays are expected to plummet and absorb actual fundamentals soon.

Petrochemical – Lower oil prices would lower production cost while product prices would stay unchanged, so petrochemical plays would not be affected as much as oil stocks. We prefer petrochemical plays to refinery plays. IVL(FV@B32), which solely engages in petrochemical business but not refinery business, would be affected less. IVL's 2Q20 normalized profit is expected to grow from 1Q20 thanks to seasonal effect, mainly because PET spreads in April-May that would rise robustly from the 1Q20 average.

U.S. Stock Market vs U.S. New Case Count


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DJIA Index New inflection (rhs)Cases

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Expecting lockdown easing phase 4, good for economy Today the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) will consider lockdown easing as follows:

1) Night curfew prohibiting people from leaving home at 23:00-3:00 is anticipated to be lifted.

2) Lockdown easing phase 4 is expected, allowing reopening of businesses in red zone, e.g. entertainment venues, schools, and public transit, as well as selling and drinking of alcoholic beverage at restaurants.

Lockdown easing will help recover Thailand’s economy. Yet, there is still risk of the second wave of COVID-19 infection (like other countries) that may pressure SET Index. Stocks benefiting from business reopening hardly have upside now, especially tourism-hotel plays (ERW, MINT, and CENTEL), so investors have to speculate cautiously.

Central bank to launch easing measures next week Central bank meetings of many countries are scheduled next week, especially the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on June 16, Brazil on June 17, and the Bank of England (BOE) meeting on June 18. Many countries are anticipated to implement additional easing monetary countries. Some countries are anticipated to cut interest rates (e.g. ninth interest rate cut), while some are expected to expand QE bond purchases (e.g. BOE).

Lockdown Easing & Economic Stimulus Phase 4


----------Phase 4 Relax and Economic stimulus package----------

Economic Activities Easing Economic Stimulus

Restaurant• Allow selling of alcoholic

beverage in restaurants

Consumption• Three-month cash handout

of B1,000/month for welfare card holders or people not receiving cash handout yet.

Health

• Spa, onsen, steamer, herbal steamer

• Steamer (excluding massage parlors)

• Swimming pool, water park (8 sqm/person limit)

• Sport venue (5 sqm/person limit)

Tourism

• Domestic tourism stimulus under consideration• Subsidies for spending• Tax deduction• Discount or discount

coupon• Extra holiday (Songkran

substitute) expected in mid-July

Gathering Venue

• Meeting room (4 sqm/person limit)

• Concert (5 sqm/person limit)

Property

• Easing LTV rules

PublicTransport

• All mass transit available• Every other seats available• Up to 70% of passenger

capacity

Automotive

• B0.1m state subsidy for car trade-in (replacing old car with new car)

• Postponing enforcement of Euro and Euro 6 standards

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Countries with positive real interest rates are expected to cut rates further, while those with low or negative real interest rates are projected to inject additional QE.

Thailand still has some room for further interest rate cut, even though the benchmark interest rate is now at the historical low of 0.5%. We expect the interest rate would be cut one more time, in order to stimulate the economy and keep 2020 GDP growth from falling below the consensus of -5% as well as keep THB from strengthening too much.

Loan payment holiday to temporarily stop NPL relapse? Announced on June 5, the Bank of Thailand's (BOT) SME loan payment holiday (loan payment break to prevent NPL relapse) is probably not different from original loan holiday. The BOT adds conditions for working capital loans (packing credit and floorplan); in case that debtors' trading partners make payment through financial institutions' system, the banks can use such money to pay loans. Moreover, debtors entering this loan payment holiday program must not be operators of financial institutions.

The BOT allows banks to provide loan support measures in addition to the BOT's measures (up to banks' discretion), The BOT's minimum loan payment holiday measures include 1) for personal loans, three-month loan payment holiday for interest and principal or six-month holiday for only principal, and 2) six-month loan payment holiday for interest and principal for SME loans of up to B100m; aid measures for corporate loans are up to banks.

As of May 29, 15 million debtors of all financial institutions with total loans of B6.7tr (compared with end-1Q20 total loans of all nine SET-listed banks of B12tr) have been registered in this program, B3.8tr or 57% of which are retail loans, B2.1tr or 32% are SME loans, and B0.74tr or 11% are corporate loans.

Real Interest Rate


Interest Rate Inflation Rate Real Interest Rate

Rusia 3.00% 5.50% -2.5%

Brazil 1.90% 3.00% -1.1%

England 0.10% 0.80% -0.7%

Japan -0.10% 0.10% -0.2%

Switzerland -0.75% -1.30% 0.6%

Indonesia 4.50% 2.20% 2.3%

Taiwan 1.13% -1.19% 2.3%

Thailand 0.50% -3.44% 3.9%

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These measures would slow down NPL relapse in 2Q20-3Q20. Yet, after loan payment holiday ends, if the economic recovery (after country reopening) is weaker than expected and there is no further economic stimulus measures, loan debts may relapse to stages 2-3 in 4Q20, resulting in higher debt provision expense or expected credit loss (ECL).

For retail loans, some debtors are unemployed while some suffer wage cut (e.g. hospitality workers) due to employers' cost control policies while debt burdens are not lowered. Notably, end-4Q19 household debt was as high as 80% of GDP. For SME and corporate loans, we are concerned about revenue that may affect EBITDA or cash flow from operation (CFO). According to newspaper, there may be exit plans for debtors under loan payment holiday program after the program expires on September 30. The program is projected to be extended, so banks may have time for debt restructuring to better suit debtors' solvency and for debt management (in one chunk for more convenient management).

We reiterate UNDERWEIGHT amid economic deceleration and asset fluctuation risk worldwide. On June 30, 2020, if SET Index fails to stand above 1,125.86 pts (the closing level on March 31, 2020), investment in ordinary shares would be adversely affected, resulting in loss on fair value through profit and loss (FVTPL) and fair value through other comprehensive income (FVTOCI) like in 1Q20. Banking plays already rallied and have limited upside from 2020 fair values now. KBANK(FV@B120) and KKP(FV@B52) have only 10% upside, no longer advisable, so we recommend gradually selling to take profit. For BBL(FV@B154), we recommend stopping profit at B119 to lock gain.

SET correction amid warnings. Top picks are EGCO, DCC Global stock markets plummeted yesterday, led by US-based S&P500 (-5.9%). Stock markets had rallied robustly and valuation had tightened, while investors have been concerned about the second wave of COVID-19 infection.

We have seen this coming and thus recommend focusing on risk diversification in preparation for market correction, seeing warnings the following factors:

1) SET Index already rallied and exceeded all targets under all methods. SET Index jumped more than 50% from mid-March to the peak of 1,448.13 pts on June 9, higher than our target of 1,164 pts in 2020 and 1,407 pts in 2021 as well as 2020 optimal target of 1,441 pts under implied market capitalization method (based on 2020 fair values of all stocks under coverage).

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2) SET Index is fully driven by speculation. Daily trading value has exceeded B100bn for four consecutive days (June 4-9). The market is getting more and more volatile.

3) More than 30% of Thai stocks have RSI in the overbought zone, foreshadowing SET correction. SET Index already rallied almost 50% from the lowest point in March, more rapidly than neighbors, so more than 30% of Thai stocks have RSI in the overbought zone now, the largest share in years.

4) S&P500 and volatility index, which are normally in the opposite directions, have both risen recently. On June 2-9, S&P500 rallied robustly by 4.2% while VIX Index also rose 2.7%. Although U.S. stock markets are rallying, correction risk is also rising.

SET Index at Different Targets


SET Index vs Stocks with RSI in Overbought Zone


1396.77

900

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1200

1300

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1500

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1700

Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20

SET IndexPts

2020 target is 1,164 pts

2021 target is 1,407 pts

Target based on fair value assumption is 1,441 pts

More than 30% of SET-listed stock have RSI in the overbought zone (the

largest proportion in 10 years)

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SPX Index vs VIX Index


5) Thailand's P/E ratio is as high as 22x, the highest in the region, driven by projection on continuous liquidity. Statistically, after massive liquidity injections in 2008 and 2011, M2 increased 9.4%yoy and 17.5%yoy, respectively, or 6.5%yoy on average. Notably, Thailand's P/E ratio was very low at only 11.6x in 2008 and 15.2x in 2011, whereas 2020F P/E ratio is 22x, the highest in many years. Thus, liquidity injection may not boost SET Index as much as before.

Our strategies have consistently secured healthy returns amid fluctuation. We set stop profit points to reduce risk amid SET fluctuation; six stocks have been sold to lock gain in June (LH, AMATA, STEC, CPALL, BCPG, and BDMS) and they ensured good returns, showing that our stop profit strategy works well.

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SPX Index VIX Index(RHS)

Jun 2-9+4.2%

PtsPts

Jun 2-9+2.7%

Thailand’s M2 vs P/E Ratio by Year


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As SET Index is getting more volatile, we recommend dividend and defensive plays, e.g. BTSGIF, EGCO, DCC, and TTW. Top picks are EGCO and DCC.

SET vs Sector Return 2019 SET vs Sector Return 2020ytd

Source: ASPS Research Source: ASPS Research

Stocks Sold to Stop Profit vs Stocks Added in Portfolio


Stock Return Weight Stock Weight StatusLH 16.1% 10% DCC 10% DividendBDMS 9.0% 15% AP 10% DividendAMATA 2.6% 5% BTSGIF 35% DefensiveSTEC 2.5% 10% EGCO 10% DefensiveBCPG 2.4% 10%CPALL 0.5% 15%

Sold to Stop Profit New Stock

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Market Talk Top Picks


StartDate Avg. Cost Last

DCC 10 Jun 20 10% 2.12% 1.89 1.93 2.28 13.71 5.83 1.77DCC's 2Q20 profit may make positive surprise. Upside over 20%.

Dividend yield expected over 6%p.a.

TTW 21 May 20 10% 0.00% 14.00 14.00 15.10 17.90 4.28 12.70TTW is advisable amid economic deceleration. Dividend yield is over

4%p.a.

INTUCH 9 Jun 20 10% -2.63% 57.00 55.50 70.00 17.42 3.96 51.50INTUCH enjoys positive sentiment from THCOM (holding over 40%

stake in THCOM).

TPIPL 9 Jun 20 10% -4.51% 1.33 1.27 2.00 19.70 3.15 1.26TPIPL is far laggard compared with SET Index despite solid

fundamentals. Supported by power plant business, 2020 profit is not

likely to plummet severely.

BDMS 20 May 20 15% 8.96% 20.83 22.70 23.80 46.36 1.08 22.70

BDMS is still laggard among big-cap stocks. Non-Thai patient count

would grow in the short and medium long thanks to Thailand's

effective COVID-19 control

BTSGIF 10 Jun 20 20% 0.20% 7.39 7.40 N.A. N.A. N.A. 6.95BTSGIF has 20% discount from NAV. Low fluctuation with

beta only 0.64x.

AP 10 Jun 20 10% 0.00% 5.80 5.80 6.30 6.45 5.43 4.96AP's profit is expected tp grow yoy and qoq. Still showing over 10%

upside while peers hardly have upside.

TVO 8 Jun 20 5% -1.77% 28.25 27.75 30.00 13.27 6.26 25.75TVO has consistantly paid dividend since 1991. 2020 dividend yield is

expected at 6%. Likely to be included in 2H20 SET100 list.

EGCO 10 Jun 20 10% -1.83% 273.00 268.00 340.00 13.69 2.52 248.00Defensive play with solid revenue even amid economic fluctuation.

Upside over 10%.

Stock Classification

Accumulated contribution returns since beginning of the year

Accumulated returns since our recommendation

Accumulated returns

Beta Portfolio

Yesterday we cut investment in BCPG and switcedh to BTSGIF by 10%

As we cut investment in BDMS by 15%, today we switch to BTSGIF

Stocks WeightAccumulated

Return

PriceFair Value

PER

2020F

Dividend

Yield

Cut Loss /

Stop ProfitStrategist Comment

Dividend45%

Defensive45%

Laggard10%

Dividend Defensive Laggard

TTWINTUCH

TVOAP

DCC

BDMSBTSGIFEGCO

TPIPL

Min,0.65

Beta Portfolio, 0.85

Max,1.11

9.0%

2.1%

0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.8%

-1.8%

-2.6%

-4.5%

-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

BDMS

DCC

BTSGIF

AP

TTW

TVO

EGCO

INTUCH

TPIPL

CPF, -0.01%

SF, -0.04%SAT, -0.07%

TVO, -0.09%EGCO, -0.19%

BCH, -0.27%KBANK, -0.29%

INTUCH, -0.37%RS, -0.39%TPIPL, -0.48%

MAJOR, -0.81%PSH, -0.95%

MCS, -1.05%AOT, -1.35%

BTSGIF, -1.49%DIF, -1.92%

WHA, -1.95%CRC, -2.41%

PTTEP, -2.96%STEC, -3.09%

JMART, -…

-4% -3% -2% -1%

BAM, 3.40%STA, 2.65%

RATCH, 2.44%CPALL, 1.71%CENTEL, 1.53%

BCP, 1.39%COM7, 1.38%

DCC, 1.34%BDMS, 1.32%

LH, 1.26%GULF, 1.18%

PTT, 1.07%BBL, 1.01%BGRIM, 1.01%

EASTW, 0.85%ADVANC, 0.80%

ROBINS, 0.60%SEAFCO, 0.58%

TU, 0.52%EA, 0.43%DOHOME, 0.41%POPF, 0.28%BCPG, 0.24%

KSL, 0.18%CPN, 0.16%KKP, 0.15%AMATA, 0.15%TTW, 0.11%TFG, 0.08%PYLON, 0.06%

SCC, 0.05%AP, 0.01%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

4.20%2.45%

-0.81%

-11.59%

4.02%

-1.55%

-26.0%

-21.0%

-16.0%

-11.0%

-6.0%

-1.0%

4.0%

9.0%

YTD MTD -1D

ASPS Portfolio SET Index

Equity Calendar Research Division

June 12, 2020

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday8 9 10 11 12

Last trading day New listing - MAI > Warrant New listing - MAI > Warrant Par split Par decrease

CRANE-W1 CHAYO-W1 209.999m units, B0.50 par CIG-W8 432.393m units, B0.50 par YCI B1 par (from B10) TPRIME B9.1002 par (from B9.1618)

RICHY-W2

Last trading day XE XD XR

New shares trading JAS-W3 JAS-W3 1.267:1w @B3.392 (final, "SP") ABFTH @B14.00 YCI 1:2n @B0.80

ADVANC 375,681 shrs (w) PROUD-W2 PROUD-W2 1.174:1w @B1.533 (final, "SP") BCT @B1.20

INTUCH 89,121 shrs (w) LHK @B0.10 Conversion

S5019P2009A 60m units Par decrease VIBHA-W2 1.00086:1w @B0.999 (final)

WHART B9.0376 par (from B9.0576) XN

BTSGIF @B0.130 New shares trading

XD SKY 20m shrs (pp)

HPF @B0.095 XW BBL13C2008A 99m units

M-II @B0.1500 JMART 9 existing: 1JMART-W3 @free IVL13C2009A 99m units

M-PAT @B0.0200 JMART 9 existing: 1JMART-W4 @free STA13C2010B 99m units

M-STOR @B0.0910 S5013C2009C 50m units

MNIT2 @B0.0650 New shares trading

MNRF @B0.0400 CI 2,432 shrs (w)

SAWAD 36,905,142 shrs (w)

XE S5013P2009D 50,000,000 units

CRANE-W1 1:1w @B3.00 (final, "SP")

RICHY-W2 1.22449:1w @B2.246 (final, "SP")

New shares trading

UREKA 254.216m shrs (xr)

15 16 17 18 19

XN Last trading day XE Last trading day XE

TGOLDETF @tba ("SP") MILL-W5 MILL-W5 1.069:1w @B1.684 (final, "SP") JCK-W5 JCK-W5 1: 1w @B3.50 (final, "SP")

XW Conversion Delisting

UREKA 3 existing: 1UREKA-W2 @free TH-W2 1:1w @B1.00 (final) TGOLDETF

New shares trading

T 833.5m shrs (pp)

Conversion

RWI-W2 1:1w @B1.50

22 23 24 25 26

Last trading day XE XD XR

W-W2 W-W2 2.32054:1w @B1.00 (final, "SP") TTT @B1.70 MAX 8:15n @B0.01

MINT 6.45:1n @Btba

XR

VNG 7:1n @B3.75 Conversion

FVC-W2 1.04545:1w @B0.954 (final)

MPC meeting

29 30

Conversion

7UP-W4 1:1w @B0.50

BROOK-W5 1:1w @B0.25

CHAYO-W1 1:1w @B6.50

CSC-P 1:1

GLOCON-W4 1:1w @B0.50

HPT-W1 1.00828:1w @B0.49589

J-W1 1:1w @B2.00

JMT-W2 1.02031:1w @B18.62187

NEWS-W6 1:1w @B0.016

NFC-W1 1.00255:1w @B6.4835

PERM-W1 1:1w @B1.80

SCB-P 1:1

SDC-W1 1:1w @B0.50

SINGER-W1 1:1w @B7.00

SINGER-W2 1:1w @B14.00

TNITY-W1 1:1w @B5.00

TTCL-W1 1:1w @B18.00

TVD-W2 1.002:1w @B0.998

U-W4 0.01:1w @B6.00

UAC-W2 1:1w @B5.55 (final)

W-W3 2.32054:1w @B1.00

ZMICO-W4 2:1w @B2.70

BOT : May-20 Trade

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday1 2 3

XR Conversion Conversion

KWG @tba CRANE-W1 1:1w @B3.00 (final) JAS-W3 1.267:1w @B3.392 (final)

RICHY-W2 1.22449:1w @B2.246 (final) PROUD-W2 1.174:1w @B1.533 (final)

MOC : Jun-20 CPI

6 7 8 9 10

Conversion

MILL-W5 1.069:1w @B1.684 (final)

PUBLIC HOLIDAY

(Substitution for Asarnha Bucha Day)

MPR Press Conference

13 14 15 16 17

XD Conversion Conversion Delisting

SELIC @B0.0076628 JCK-W5 1: 1w @B3.50 (final) W-W2 2.32054:1w @B1.00 (final) W-W2

SELIC 7.249986:1STD @free

STANLY @B8.25 XD

SIAM @B0.05

20 21 22 23 24

XD

VGI @B0.016

XW

ITEL 4 existing: 1ITEL-W2 @free

27 28 29 30 31

XD XR

BTS @B0.15 AEC 0.40:1n @B0.10

PUBLIC HOLIDAY

(H.M. the King's Birthday) XW

AEC 2 existing: 1AEC-W6 @free

BOT : Jun-20 Trade

July 2020

Jun 2020

Investment Strategy June 12, 2020 · Global stock markets plummeted, so SET Index would plunge too....

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