Investment Philosophy: Price/Intrinsic Value Intrinsic value is determined by the fundamentals that...
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Transcript of Investment Philosophy: Price/Intrinsic Value Intrinsic value is determined by the fundamentals that...
Investment Philosophy: Price/Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value is determined by the fundamentals that drive a security’s future cash flow
Discrepancies between market price and intrinsic value arise from market behavior and provide opportunities to outperform
A truly integrated global approach that produces superior research
Leading edge risk management and strong knowledge of clients which are critical for superior portfolio construction
Teams of investment specialists working together to deliver consistent results
Investor Behavior Creates Opportunities
Overview of Process
Numbers in parentheses represent number of research analysts per area
Risk Analysis
Singer (11)
Asset Allocation & Currency
Singer (23)
Global Portfolio Team
Madsen, Bertocci, McQueen, Miller, Lytle, von Streng, Pickard
ClientPortfolio
Global Equity Research
Fry (86)
Stock/sector recommendations
Estimate where risk budget is spent
Ensure portfolio incurs compensated risk
Currency decisions
Country recommendations
Bottom-up Proprietary Research Is the Key Driver
Investment Goals & Risk Parameters
Global Equity
Objective: Outperform MSCI WorldEquity (Free) Index by 225 basispoints per annum over market cycle
Tracking Error: Normal range 3% - 5%
Number of Equity Holdings: Approximately 125 to 175
Relative Exposures (Versus Benchmark)
Typical Maximum
Individual Stock Weights: ± 0.5 – 2% ± 5%
Sector Weights: ± 5% ± 10%
Regional Market Weights: ± 3 – 8% ± 25%
Investment Process & Global Research
Global Equity Valuation System
Sector Teams
Manage sector portfolios
Evaluate and communicate
Bonus linked to results
Centralized platform
Ranks stocks by valuation
Consistent world-wide
Global perspective
Uncommon research
In-depth, long-term financial models(GEVS)
86 Global Equity Analysts
Global Organization: The Driving Force Behind our Research
Global (Ex-US) Equity Portfolio: Strategy Summary
June 30, 2003
1 Largest over (+)/under (-) weights relative to benchmark MSCI Index as of 6/30/03.Totals may not add due to rounding
GLOBAL (EX-US)EQUITY PORTFOLIO
StockSpecific1 Sectors1 Common
CharacteristicsRegion/Country
+ Media +Pharmaceuticals+ Paper & Forest Products +Commercial Services+Food, Beverage & Tobacco- Financials- Metals & Mining- Industrial Conglomerates- Machinery- Utilities
+ Gallaher Group (UK)+VNU (Netherlands)+Reed Elsevier (Netherlands)+ Nestle (Switzerland)+ Aventis (France)- HSBC (UK)- UBS (Switzerland)- HBOS (UK)- Siemens (Germany)- National Australia Bank (Australia)
North America -2.6%Europe (Ex-UK) 0.7UK 6.0Japan -2.7Asia (Ex-Japan) -0.5Australia/ New Zealand -2.3Temp Cash 1.4
0.0%
= Value+ Size- Success = Variability in Markets
Active Strategy
Global (Ex-US) Equity: Sector Strategy
June 30, 2003
-4 -2 0 2 4
Media
Pharmaceuticals
Paper
CommercialServices
Food, Beverage& Tobacco
Utilities
Machinery
IndustrialConglomerates
Metals & Mining
Financials
Source: UBS Global Asset ManagemetLargest over (+)/under (-) weights relative to benchmark MSCI Index as of 6/30/03.
Media - A mix of electronic and traditional media companies. Publishers are expanding distribution by using the Internet.
Pharmaceuticals – Attractive valuations relative to other sectors with improving product pipelines in selected stocks after a period of R & D stagnation.
Paper – European paper industry shows rising cash flow, a strong competitive position in the industry and excellent capital controls.
Industrial Conglomerates – Acquisition led growth and opaque accounting are negatives for this sector.
Metals & Mining – A weak pricing environment coupled with overcapacity in most metals makes the environment very difficult.
Financials – Capital markets exposure, low commercial loan growth, and credit quality continue to be concerns for the sector.
Global (Ex-US) Equity: Current Views
June 30, 2003
There were no major changes to our sector bets over the quarter. Pharmaceuticals, banks and media remained significant overweights. Consumer durables dropped out of the top overweights to be replaced by food, beverages and tobacco
This addition to the food sector was driven at the stock level where we took an overweight position in Swiss food producer Nestle – the largest food company in the world. Nestle has superior sustainable growth to its competitors due to its exposure to faster growing divisions, such as Water. The group has a restructuring programme to focus on coordinating buying and selling on a global basis, which should lead to significant margin improvement. With interest cover of 16x there is also clear opportunity for share buybacks
Country positions wer also largely unchanged. We did halve the underweight to Japan. This does not reflect a change of view on the market as a whole – we still fail to see any positive signs of economic restructuring. Our positions in Japan continue to be concentrated on the exporters, over the quarter we topped up Nintendo, Honda and Toyota into weakness
Health care 2.1
Consumer discretionary 1.4
Energy 0.7
IT 0.6
Telecoms 0.3
Materials 0.1
Consumer Staples 0.1
Utilities -0.9
Industrials -2.1
Financials -2.2
Sector positions 1
Positive (overweight) %
Gallaher +1.76
VNU +1.66
Reed Elsevier +1.64
Nestle +1.63
Aventis +1.60
Stock positions 1
Negative (underweight) %
Royal Dutch -1.57
HSBC -1.26
UBS -1.07
HBOS -0.79
Siemens -0.64
1 Global ex US Equity Model