Introduction Very Long Energy and Environmental Model: Outline of the Methodology T.Hamacher, M....

Introduction

Very Long Energy and EnvironmentalModel: Outline of the

Methodology

T.Hamacher, M. Biberacher and the VLEEM consortium

Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik

Introduction

1. Objective of VLEEM

2. Back-casting

3. The GIS interface

4. Global link as example

5. Conclusion and outlook

Objective of VLEEM

The VLEEM project - sponsored by the DG-Research - should develop R&D guidelines for the European Energy Research.

Back-casting

The goal of VLEEM is to develop a system view of possible future technologies and the possiblecontributions of these technologies to a sustainableenergy future. Emphasise is more put on the technologythan on the economy.

Renewable

Fossil Nuclear

The tool box

GIS-Interface

Energy-ressourcedatabase

BALANCE

Energy-technologydatabase

User-Interface

BASES TASES

Special models

The tool box

BASES: module to estimate the future energy demand. Special emphasise is put on time budgets to describe the energy demand.

BALANCE: module to describe the trajectory from today to the future end-point of the investigation. Themodule is based on a simple LP-approach.

TASES: module to describe the future sustainable end-point and to “prove” the feasibility of certain technological solutions.

Global link as example

One of the crucial questions for a prosperousfuture of renewable energies is the way theintermittent nature of wind and solar will be treated.

While in a lot of studies hydrogen is proposed as possible way out, in VLEEM a second option is also investigated, a so called global link.

Global link: motivation

Possible sites for off-shore wind parks in theNorth and Baltic sea.


The installation of off-shore wind parks will not only impact the German network.


Contribution of wind to the total demand.

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0 14 28 42 56 70 84 98 112

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140

154

168

Ele

ctric

ity p

rodc

utio

n [M

W]

.

Demand

Off-shore

On-shore

green: max. use of capacity < 80% (no problem)blue: max. use of capacity 80% - 100%

(could become critical)red: max. use of capacity 100%

(critical)magenta: max. use of capacity >> 100%

(new capacity needs to be installed)


Necessary enforcement of the GermanGrid.

7979

5358

7009

6487

5442

4339

7424

4969

1211

10837

• World is divided in several regions..

• .. represented by an hourly scattered load curve for on year regarding electricity demand (in TWh)

• electricity exchange between neighbour regions is possible

electricity demand

distribution

wind PV

storage

Assumption: Electricity demand in 2100 will be covered by solar- and wind power.


Electricity consumption in 2100

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Europe

Former USSR

North America

Latin America

Sub Saharian AfricaNorth Africa and Middle East

South Asia

Centrally planned Asia and China

OECD Pacific Asia

Other Pacific Asia

TWhSource: IIASA/WEC Global Energy Perspectives, 1998

NEEDS SUPPLY

2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

hour of year

force values to norm load curve

Source: UCTE Statistical Yearbook 2000

shift and merge curves to regional appearing time zones

%%%%%%%%%% Solar radiation

increasing

%%%%%%%%%%

increasing

Wind speed

2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

Stunde im Jahr

Lei

stu

ng


Global link (data series preparation)

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#######

one year

win

d s

pe

ed

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####

one year

so

lar

ins

ola

tio

n

• for each raster slice one year hourly resoluted curves for wind speed ...• world is covered by a 5° x 5° grid pattern

• ... and solar insolation are available

... no storage available

storage installations

... storage available and expensive ... storage available and becomes cheaper ... storage available and very cheap

Backgrounding limitations:• only 0.5 % of earth surface per 5° x 5° can be utilised for solar radiation collection• only 1.25 GW wind power can be installed per 10‘000 km2 earth surface

installed solar power plant installed wind power plant electricity exchange


Comparison of cumulated numbers for the scenarios with different storage cost assumptions:

tremendous grid capacities necessary – but it can be reduced by the combination with storage facilities;

available storage capacities are suitable to increase grid exertion;

storage installations increase with deacreasing cost assumptions;

solar power profits from the combination with storage facilities more as from the connection to a global grid;

fluctuations in wind power are more or less completely compensated by a global grid – no storage is necessary ;

without storage

140 €/kWh storage cost



14 €/kWh storage cost and grid cost enlarged by a factor 1E6



* electricity networks seem to be one of the bottlenecks in the employment of renewables (beside the cost)

* R&D in new transmission technologies like super-conducting cables and system behaviour seem necessary

* R&D in the system behaviour of large intra-continental electricity networks seems necessary

Conclusion and outlook

* A toolbox was developed that is capable to fulfil the VLEEM objectives

* first more comprehensive examples were developed

* three major scenarios are under way and willbe ready at the end of the year

without storage facilities

cost for storage: 140 €/kWh



cost for storage: 14 €/kWh (net cost are factorised with 1E6)

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installed wind power

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scenarios with different storage cost assumptions

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installed solar collector surface

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*TW

2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

hour of year

20%

What happens if it is assumed that part of the base load will be covered by conventional plant?

will be covered by near located (in a global context) base load plant and is therefore decoupled from the global optimisation

pow

er

load curve of electricity demand

Although the leaving part in the demand as well as the leaving supply technologies (wind and solar) show high fluctuations, the global assumed installations for grid, storage and solar power can be reduced evidently.


G r i d e f f i c i e n c y

00 . 10 . 20 . 30 . 40 . 50 . 60 . 70 . 80 . 91

Efficincy

w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y

G r i d c a p a c i t y

01 E + 1 32 E + 1 33 E + 1 34 E + 1 35 E + 1 36 E + 1 37 E + 1 3

Capacityin(km*kW) w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y

S o l a r p o w e r i n s t a l l a t i o n

0 . 0 E + 0 01 . 0 E + 1 02 . 0 E + 1 03 . 0 E + 1 04 . 0 E + 1 05 . 0 E + 1 06 . 0 E + 1 07 . 0 E + 1 0

Collectorsurfacein(m^2) w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y

W i n d p o w e r i n s t a l l a t i o n

0 . 0 E + 0 02 . 0 E + 0 64 . 0 E + 0 66 . 0 E + 0 68 . 0 E + 0 61 . 0 E + 0 71 . 2 E + 0 71 . 4 E + 0 71 . 6 E + 0 7

Capacityin(MW) w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y

Optimum

1. Necessary potentials are available;

2. Needed storage capacities are strongly reduced by a global grid;

3. Day/night fluctuations in solar power can completely compensated only by storage facilities and not by the connection to a global grid;

4. In opposite to solar power, the fluctuations in wind power are mostly compensated via the global connection.

Optimum in the scenario pattern would be a combination of net facilities and storage facilities because in that case the necessary installations would be at the lowest






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*TW


Introduction Very Long Energy and Environmental Model: Outline of the Methodology T.Hamacher, M....

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