Introduction to the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution

International Workshop on Regional and Intercontinental Transport of Air Pollution

Hanoi, 13 to 14 October 2008

T k F C Ch iTask Force Co-ChairsAndré Zuber Terry J. Keating

European Commission U.S. EPA

http://www.htap.org

p

OutlineOutline• Introduction to the LRTAP Convention

& TF H i h i T t f Ai P ll ti& TF Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution

• Relationship between LRTAP TF HTAP• Relationship between LRTAP, TF HTAP, EANET, Malé Declaration, and other activities

• Overview of TF HTAP Assessment & Cooperative Research Activities

• Objectives and Structure of This Workshop

CONVENTION ON LONGCONVENTION ON LONG--RANGERANGEIntroduction to TF HTAP

CONVENTION ON LONGCONVENTION ON LONG--RANGERANGETRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTIONTRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION

• Adopted in 1979, the first multi-lateral agreement on air pollution

• Created a framework on which has been built eight Protocols, all in force as of May 2005. Th P t l h i d t i biti• The Protocols have aimed to increase ambition levels in a stepwise manner.

• Day to day activities supported by a SecretariatDay to day activities supported by a Secretariat at the UN Economic Commission for Europe

• http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPEUNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

p g p

Introduction to TF HTAP

CONVENTION ON LONGCONVENTION ON LONG--RANGERANGECONVENTION ON LONGCONVENTION ON LONG--RANGERANGETRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTIONTRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION

51 Parties in Europe, North America and Central Asia51 Parties in Europe, North America and Central Asia

Implementation Committee

W ki G

Executive BodyCLRTAP Organigram

ProgrammeC

ICPForests

Working Groupon Effects

Task Force onEmission Inventories

and Projections

EMEPSteering Body

Task Force on

Working Group onStrategies and

Review

Coordinating Centre

Task Force Task Force onMeasurement and

Modelling

Chemical Coordinating

Reactive Nitrogen

ICPIntegrated Monitoring

Task Force

Programme Centre

Task Force on Heavy Metals

Centre

MeteorologicalSynthesizing Centre-West

Network of Experts on Benefits and

Economic Instruments

ICPModelling and Mapping

Task Force

ICP

Coordination Center for

Effects

Main Research

Task Force

Expert Group on Techno-economic Issues

MaterialsTask Force

ICP VegetationTask Force

Programme Centre

Main Research Centre

MeteorologicalSynthesizing Centre-East

Centre for Emission inventories and projections

Task Force onIntegrated

Assessment Modelling

Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling

on POPs

Task Force

ICPWaters

Task ForceProgramme

CentreExpert Group on

Particulate MatterAssessment ModellingTask ForceHealth

Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of

Air Pollution

The Task Force is charged by the CLRTAP to “plan d d t th t h i l k tand conduct the technical work necessary to:– develop a fuller understanding of the hemispheric

transport of air pollutiontransport of air pollution ...– estimate the hemispheric transport of specific air

pollutants for the use in reviews of protocols to the ConventionConvention

– prepare technical reviews thereon for submission to the Steering Body of EMEP”

– The chair(s) are encouraged to invite individuals with expertise relevant to the work of the Task Force and experts from non-Convention countries in the northern phemisphere.

P ti i ti i th TF HTAPIntroduction to TF HTAP

Participation in the TF HTAP• Participation is open to all interested experts• All countries in the Northern Hemisphere have

b i it d t i t “N ti l F l P i t ”been invited to nominate “National Focal Points”• Task Force reports are developed by

consensus but are officially reports of the Coconsensus, but are officially reports of the Co-Chairs to the LRTAP Convention.

• Experts from 12 countries outside the UNECE• Experts from 12 countries outside the UNECE have participated in at least one of the Task Force’s past meetings.Force s past meetings.

Relationship to Introduction to TF HTAP

pOther Regional and Global Initiatives

• TF HTAP seeks to build upon the work of the EMEP• TF HTAP seeks to build upon the work of the EMEP centres and Task Forces

• Engage experts from other regional initiatives: EANET, M lé D l ti ASEAN ABC A i AMAPMalé Declaration, ASEAN, ABC-Asia, AMAP, …

• Engage experts from the global atmospheric science community and leverage joint efforts: IGAC, Atmospheric y g jChemistry & Climate Initiative, IPCC

• Engage experts and leverage activities under other global forums: Stockholm Convention on POPs, UNEP Mercury , yProgram and Associated Partnerships, GEO

T b ild d t di f i t ti t l• To build a common understanding of intercontinental transport of air pollution in the Northern Hemisphere

Policy-Relevant Science QuestionsIntroduction to TF HTAP

Policy Relevant Science Questions1. How does hemispheric transport affect air pollution? 2 H h d i i i t i ff t i2. How much do emissions in one country or region affect air

pollution in another country or region? 3. How confident are we of the results and what is our best3. How confident are we of the results and what is our best

estimate of the uncertainties?4. How will changes in emissions in one country or region

ff t i ll ti i th t i ?affect air pollution in another country or region?5. How may the source-receptor relationships change over

the next 20 to 50 years due to changes in emissions?t e e t 0 to 50 yea s due to c a ges e ss o s6. How may the source-receptor relationships change due to

climate change? 7. What efforts are needed to develop an integrated system

of observation data and models?

Where We Have Been

Progress to Date

Where We Have Been

Dates Locations Partners Topics DiscussedDates Locations Partners Topics Discussed

2005 June Brussels Science Questions2006 Jan Washington Model Intercomparison

June Moscow Hg, POPs, CH4

Oct Beijing Emissions and Projections2007 J G / WMO GEO Ob ti l E id2007 Jan Geneva w/ WMO, GEO Observational Evidence

May Reading Climate, HTAP 2007 ReviewOct Jülich Model Intercomparisonp

2008 April Rome w/ UNEP Hg F&T Hg, POPsJune Washington w/ NAS, AC&C Survey State of Science,

Pl C ti A lPlan Cooperative Analyses

Major Work Areas• Emissions and Projections

Progress to Date

• Emissions and Projections– JRC/IES is developing an EDGAR-HTAP Inventory,

incorporating data from the national and regional scale.– US EPA will analyze new scenarios developed for IPCC

AR5 for use in HTAP multi-model experiments.

Major Work Areas• Emissions and Projections

Progress to Date

• Emissions and Projections• Integration of Observational Evidence

– NILU is developing a database of surface observations toNILU is developing a database of surface observations to support the assessment of intercontinental transport, including for use in model evaluation.

– NASA is developing a database of relevant observationsNASA is developing a database of relevant observations from aircraft campaigns and guidance on how to compare the observations to models.NASA is developing a specific interface for its GIOVANNI– NASA is developing a specific interface for its GIOVANNI system to facilitate access and comparison to some satellite observations.

Major Work Areas• Emissions and Projections

Progress to Date

• Emissions and Projections• Integration of Observational Evidence• HTAP Multi-Model ExperimentsHTAP Multi Model Experiments

– 35+ Models Participating To Date– Phased Experiments

• SR: Source-Receptor Sensitivity Simulations• TP: Passive and Artificial Tracer Simulations• ES: Event Simulations (focusing on ICARTT observations)

FC F t S i (Cli t d E i i )• FC: Future Scenarios (Climate and Emissions)

– Infrastructure • Data Server at FZ Juelich• Data Processing and Visualization Tools (HemiTAP) at JRC-IES• Wiki at FZ Juelich• Model descriptions using EU COST 728/732 Model Inventory• Standard naming convention built upon netCDF/CF convention

HTAP 2007: An Interim ReportProgress to Date

HTAP 2007: An Interim Report• Presented to EB December 2007

to inform the review of the Gothenburg Protocolg

• In Print as of April 2008• Focused on Ozone and

Aerosols– Transport Processes– Observational Evidence– Emissions Inventories &

Projectionsj– Regional & Global Modeling– Summary Answers to Policy-

Relevant Science Questions> 125 Experts from > 25• > 125 Experts from > 25 Countries Participated in the Process

• Reports initial results of HTAP M lti Model E perimentsMulti-Model Experiments

Major Findings2007 Interim Report

Major Findings• “Observations from the ground, aircraft, and satellites

provide a wealth of evidence that ozone and fine particle concentrations in the UNECE region and throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by intercontinental andNorthern Hemisphere are influenced by intercontinental and hemispheric transport of pollutants.”

• “The processes that determine the overall patterns of• The processes that determine the overall patterns of transport at this scale are relatively well understood and our ability to quantify the magnitude of transport is improving.”

Major Findings2007 Interim Report

Major Findings• “The HTAP model intercomparison has provided the first set

of comparable estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships from multiple models ”relationships from multiple models.

• “For ground-level ozone, there is a hemispheric background concentration of 20-40 ppb that includes a largeconcentration of 20-40 ppb that includes a large anthropogenic and intercontinental component. …changes in intercontinental transport can have small, but significant, impacts on surface concentrations.” p

• “For fine particles, the impact of intercontinental transport on surface air quality is primarily episodic, especially q y p y p , p yassociated with major emission events such as fires or dust storms. The intercontinental transport of both ozone and fine particles has large impacts on total atmospheric column loadings which have significant implications for climateloadings, which have significant implications for climate change.”

Annual Mean Surface O3 Decrease from 20% NOx Reductions

Source: EU NA SA EA Sum of 3 foreign regions

1.5

2

v

0.5

1

ppbv Full range of

15 models

0EU NA SA EAReceptor:

i NA EUNA EU

SAEA Import Sensitivity =

Σ(20% decreases in foreign NOx) = 30-70%

Largest source-receptor pair: NA EU

20% decreases in domestic NOx = 30-70%

Caveat: seasonality in effects of domestic vs. foreign NOx are different!A.M. Fiore

Sensitivity of surface O3 to NOx sources during season of max domestic O3 production

1 6

Source: EU NA SA EA Sum of 3 foreign regions

1.21.41.6

Largest HTAPS ll t

Similar (ppb

v)

0.60.8

1 Largest S-R pair: NA EU

HTAPinfluenceon SA

Smallest HTAPinfluenceon NA

impactfrom all 3 foreign

ase

in O

3

00.20.4 on NA source

regions

Dec

rea

EU NA SA EASeason: JJA JJA SON JJA

Σ(20% decreases in foreign NOx) 10 30%

Receptor:

I S i i i( g x)

20% decrease in domestic NOx= 10-30%

A.M. Fiore

Import Sensitivity =

Does not consider long-term feedbacks.

Annual Mean Aerosol Import Sensitivities

Receptor region: NA EU SA EA # of models p gSurface Concentration Import SensitivityPM 7% ±6% 5% ±4% 25% ±12% 10% ±9% 9Deposition Import SensitivitySO 9% ±5% 10% ±7% 32% ±11% 13% ±9% 11SO4 9% ±5% 10% ±7% 32% ±11% 13% ±9% 11Sulphur (SO2+SO4) 3% ±3% 3% ±2% 19% ±8% 5% ±3% 11BC 4% ±2% 1% ±1% 13% ±24% 3% ±1% 8POM 3% ±2% 1% ±1% 12% ±24% 4% ±1% 8Column Load Import SensitivitySO4 33% ±23% 33% ±23% 59% ±19% 31% ±21% 11BC 32% ±23% 21% ±14% 19% ±3% 17% ±5% 7POM 30% ±24% 27% ±21% 13% ±5% 24% ±6% 7POM 30% ±24% 27% ±21% 13% ±5% 24% ±6% 7

The mean sensitivities ± 1 standard deviation are derived from individual model results.

Large inter-model range; multi-model mean generally captures observed monthly mean surface O3

Mediterranean Central Europe < 1km Central Europe > 1km

NE USA SW USA SE USAppb)

NE USA SW USA SE USA

e O

zone

(p

JapanMountainous W USAGreat Lakes USASurf

ace

Many models biased low at altitude, high over EUS+Japan in summerGood springtime/late fall simulation From Fiore

Avoided Mortalities (annual)From Ozone Due to a 10% Decrease in NOx Emissions

Receptor Region

NA EU FSU AF IN EA SA SE AU TOTNA 251 148 59 162 133 106 11 7 0 876EU 12 -289 89 250 39 54 0 2 0 158FSU 12 53 50 67 62 89 0 1 0 333

Reg

ion FSU 12 53 50 67 62 89 0 1 0 333

AF 12 49 36 938 134 58 4 5 5 1238IN 13 13 10 53 3012 80 1 56 0 3238

Sou

rce EA 38 45 25 34 107 1154 0 124 0 1527

SA 3 -1 0 33 9 -1 203 3 1 251SE 3 1 1 29 149 100 4 417 0 704S SE 3 1 1 29 149 100 4 417 0 704AU -1 -1 0 7 -2 -2 5 7 7 20TOT 8344

Mortality based on Bell et al. (2004)Intra-regional avoided mortalities: 5744; Inter-regional: 2600

From West

Annual premature mortalities as a result of domestic emissions and inter-continental transport of p

fine aerosols (PM2.5)

1000EmissionsDomestic

Intercontinental by Region

200EmissionsN A merica

Domestic vs. Intercontinental

ath

s

1000

800

DomesticIntercontiRR+DMS

150A fricaIndiaE t A i

N. A mericaS. A mericaEuropeFSU

Th

ou

san

d d

ea

600

400

100

East A siaSE A siaA ustraliaM. East

MEA USEEAINA FFSUEUSANA

200

0MEA USEEAINA FFSUEUSANA

50

0MEA USEEAINA FFSUEUSANA

Receptor regionsMEA USEEAINA FFSUEUSANA

Receptor regions

From Mauzerall

Recommendations2007 Interim Report

• “Improving our assessment of intercontinental and hemispheric transport will require an integrated approach where the best available knowledge from observationswhere the best available knowledge from observations, emissions, and models is combined.”– Improving the modeling of transport processes using existing and new

field campaign datafield campaign data. – Improving emissions inventories using local information and inverse

modeling.– Identifying and explaining long-term trends by filling gaps in theIdentifying and explaining long term trends by filling gaps in the

observing system and improving model descriptions. – Developing a robust understanding of current source-receptor

relationships using multiple modeling techniques and analyses of observations.

– Estimating future source-receptor relationships under changing emissions and climate. I i i ti l l ti hi d i f ti t– Improving organizational relationships and information management infrastructures to facilitate necessary research and analysis.

Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends,,impacts and policy implicationsimplications

http://royalsociety.org

Coordination and Leveraging for the Future Work Plan

Next HTAP Assessment201020092008

Royal Society (UK)UNEP Hg F&T

Q2Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

UNEP Hg ReportAMAP POPsStockholm ReviewNAS (US)AC&C (Phase 1)TF HTAP TF TF TF (TF) (TF) (TF) (TF) (TF)

What is the best way to • meet the needs of the Convention?

TF HTAP ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

• leverage other efforts?• add value from a scientific perspective?

Structure of HTAP 2010Future Work Plan

Structure of HTAP 2010

• Part 1: Ozone, Aerosols, Deposition, , p– Update of 2007 Interim Report

• Part 2: MercuryBuilding on UNEP F&T Partnership Report– Building on UNEP F&T Partnership Report

• Part 3: POPs– Building on the Stockholm Convention Global g

Monitoring Report• Part 4: Synthesis

– “Summary for Policy Makers”Summary for Policy Makers• Executive Summary

– Official Document to the LRTAP Convention

Schedule for HTAP 2010Future Work Plan

• Invitation to participate Jan 2009• Final plan and list of authors Mar 2009• Final plan and list of authors Mar 2009• First Annotated Outline Jun 2009• Revised Annotated Outline Sep 2009Revised Annotated Outline Sep 2009• Internal Draft of Parts 1-3 Nov 2009• First Review Draft of Parts 1-4,ES Jan 2010• Major Review Meeting Feb 2010• Revised Review Draft of Parts 1-4,ES Apr 2010• Acceptance Meeting, Finalize ES Jun 2010• Finalize Parts 1-4 Jul 2010

Printing Aug 2010• Printing Aug 2010

Where We Are GoingFuture Work Plan

Dates Locations Partners Topics Discussed

2008 Oct Hanoi w/ EANET Focus on Asia2009 Mar St Petersburg Emissions,

Hg/POPs ModelingJune Paris w/ TFMM Regional-Global andg

Climate-AQ LinkagesNov 2010 Assessment Authors

2010 F b 2010 A t R i2010 Feb 2010 Assessment ReviewJun 2010 Assessment Acceptance

After 2010, we expect the TF HTAP to continue its scientific work to inform the LRTAP Convention and other international policy forums that have similar information needs on the rolepolicy forums that have similar information needs on the role of intercontinental transport of air pollution.

International Workshop on Regional andThis Workshop

p gIntercontinental Transport of Air Pollution

• To present and discuss regional and global modelling of air• To present and discuss regional and global modelling of air pollution transport under MICS-Asia and TF HTAP

• To review the status of atmospheric monitoring in the region• To review the status of atmospheric monitoring in the region, including monitoring of mercury, ozone, aerosols, sulphur and nitrogen deposition

• To review the emission inventories and projections for Asia

• To review available assessments of transboundary air ypollution impacts on human health, welfare, and ecosystems

• To recommend and plan further studies of relevance to better understand regional and intercontinental transport of air pollution in Asia

Questions for Discussion

This Workshop

Questions for Discussion

Wh t d h th i l ff t• What and how can the regional efforts on transboundary pollution in Asia contribute to th t f i t ti t l t t ithe assessment of intercontinental transport in the Northern Hemisphere under the TF HTAP?

• What and how can the TF HTAP contribute to the regional efforts on transboundary air g ypollution in Asia?