Introduction to the Aerotropolis

PART 1 : INTRODUCTION TO THE AEROTROPOLIS2

Introduction to the Aerotropolis

Between November 2016 and March 2017, the Greater Sydney Commission exhibited the Draft District Plans for the Greater Metropolitan Sydney Region, which sought to identify growth in Sydney at a Regional and Metropolitan scale, through to 2056.

In the Draft District Plans, Sydney’s long term economic security has been pinned on the growth of an ‘Aerotropolis city’ around the future Western Sydney Airport - one that will generate commerce, skills and services resulting in a more equitable distribution of skilled employment across the Sydney basin. The Greater Sydney Commission has undertaken significant initial steps on this issue, looking to global examples of famous airport precincts to see how Western Sydney Airport can become similarly world renowned over the next forty years. However, at this stage there is no clear plan as to how Sydney would achieve a true aerotropolis precinct, which would face significant geographical, structural and commercial challenges unique to the Sydney aviation and planning spheres.

This piece looks to explore the various theoretical ideas underpinning the notion of an aerotropolis, outlining key recommendations as to the future direction which Ethos Urban believes any aerotropolis will need to head in. If this aspirational idea is to become a reality, the necessary discussions about the journey to the end game of creating a true aerotropolis at Badgerys Creek should happen now, and the planning system is the mechanism for this to happen.


By 2063 the future Western Sydney Airport at Badgerys Creek will compete amongst the world’s greatest airports, with passenger numbers rivalling those of some of the largest airports of today, such as LAX, Hong Kong International or London Heathrow. The unmatched level of goods, services and knowledge exchange that will take place in and around the airport, along with the labour and skilled workers attracted to the airport will provide a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Western Sydney.

This is something that the Greater Sydney Commission fully acknowledges, with the Draft District Plans identifying the aviation city concept as a fundamental ingredient for the growth of the ‘2056 City’. The principal driver behind this is the idea of a best practice greenfield aerotropolis, which will form the centrepiece of the future Sydney West, framing the inland third of the Sydney Metropolitan area by 2056. Given the valuable relationship between the provision of air facilities and highly specialised, skilled employment, the airport is a catalyst to deliver future development.

However, challenges arise from this approach given there is no clear plan in place to undertake the fundamental steps that are required in order to achieve a true aerotropolis in Western Sydney. By unpacking and identifying the key elements of an aerotropolis, especially in the context of what has historically been considered a ‘second’ or ‘overflow’ airport, we will be able to understand what barriers stand in the way to the airport city of tomorrow, and what can be done to maximise the opportunities the airport will provide now and in the future.

What is an Aerotropolis?


John Kasarda is a leading industry expert in the development of the world’s greatest aviation precincts, having worked with many global organisations including DHL, Boeing and Kuala Lumpur International Airport. Kasarda has primarily worked to guide stakeholders through the aviation development process to capitalise on the benefits that aviation development provides.

Kasarda defines an aerotropolis as “an urban form whereby cities are built around airports, speedily connecting time-sensitive suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and business people to distant customers, clients and marketplaces.”

Underpinning this definition is a focus on the connection between different land uses around an airport, using time rather than distance as a measure of desirability. The notion of time-cost is critical to the development of airport precincts, both in relation to local accessibility through road and public transport networks, and access to the global aviation network. An agglomeration of development which is strategically located in an area because of an airport can be considered an ‘aerotropolis’, even if it is not within an immediate geographical radius of the airport facility itself. Centres and districts which are separated by significant distance from the Western Sydney Airport, such as Leppington, Liverpool, Penrith or Parramatta can still form part of the precinct if they benefit from high quality roads and public transport options which provide fast access to the precinct.

What is an Aerotropolis?


The notion of time-cost is critical to the development of airport precincts, both in relation to local accessibility through road and public transport networks, and access to the global aviation network.


The idea of an aerotropolis can be further broken down into three categories of uses, which have each been discussed further below. These uses heavily interplay with one another and only together can constitute a fully-fledged airport precinct.

• Core aeronautical activities are the uses fundamental to the airport, such as runways, terminals and hangers.

• Airport related activities are uses which fall outside of the immediate functions of the airport, but have a distinct relation to air movements, with business revenue tied closely to air traffic. Hotels, long stay car parks, freight transfer centres and coach depots would all fall under this category.

• Airport oriented activities are the third tier of uses, which do not necessarily relate strongly to the core airport functions in themselves, however have been strategically located because of the opportunities the airport provides. The planning system is the mechanism to strategise how these uses and activities integrate with the Western Sydney Airport to produce the best economic outcomes. The range of uses that fall under this category are theoretically endless, and are importantly not spatially bounded by any administrative boundary such as a Council or district border, with time-cost being the key determining factor. Accordingly, these uses can be anything from university campuses to law courts, logistics centres to stadia, and they don’t necessarily have to be located within a certain distance of the airport itself. Rather, the key criteria to development is that uses benefit from superior precinct accessibility where time efficiency is paramount.

01 Aerotropolis, or aviation precinct.


• The three components of airport development have corresonding benefits between one another, resulting in a fully realised airport precinct.

These three components also provide mutual support for each other, with benefits flowing from each use to the other two. The provision of an airport is not as appealing, and is severely capped in economic output if it is not supported by surrounding related activities. These activities can deliver better outcomes if there are a range of strategically located services which can expand their patronage and integrate within the functions of the airport. This can increase flight patronage and economic output from the airport itself. So the cycle continues.

AirportRelatedActivities

AirportOrientedActivities

CoreAeronauticalActivities

Additional patronageand profitability

Increase tobusiness opportunities,additional income

Avenuefor income

Boost topatronage and

Viability ofOperations

Boost to support servicesincrease in precinctappeal and competitiveness

Increased packageofferingof the airport

The planning system is the optimal mechanism to strategise how land uses and activities integrate with the Western Sydney Airport to produce the best economic outcome.

Barriers to an Aerotropolis


In many ways Western Sydney is a prime location for an Australian aerotropolis, which places it in a position of strategic advantage relative to other locations. There is a good supply of developable land in and around the airport site at Badgerys Creek and an array of public and private transport projects are currently in in the planning phase, with commitments to open some of those projects prior to the completion of the airport. The airport will be capable of receiving larger aircraft from the commencement of operations, meaning that initial long haul, medium capacity ‘point-to-point’ flights, likely to use aircraft such as Boeing 787s or Airbus A350s, will not be turned away due to inadequate facilities.

There is increasing confidence that the airport will be permitted to operate 24 hours per day and there will be no maximum cap on flights per hour. These are major constraints on the operations of Sydney’s Kingsford Smith Airport, and will all individually work as selling points for the new precinct at Badgerys Creek. Despite this, key barriers still remain in the provision of a future Western Sydney Aerotropolis.

Barriers to an Aerotropolis

02 Sydney is located at an ‘end of the earth’ location, whereby passengers are unlikely to transit through Sydney to connect to two different locations. From Sydney, the vast majority of aircraft distance travelled, even with a full 3700m runway, will be across ocean, meaning that multiple populous regions will likely not be connected through Sydney.


Transiting Passenger / FreightThe key barrier to Sydney achieving a true aerotropolis is the geographical location of Sydney, which is right on the edge of the eastern coast of Australia. The vast majority of the world’s aerotropolis cities represents a connection point between regions.

Japan and South Korea are the transit points for many travellers between Asia and North America, Western Europe is a common stopover between Europe and North America, and over two thirds of the world’s population live within an eight hour flight of the United Arab Emirates, with the airports of Doha, Abu Dhabi and Dubai all experiencing passenger transfer rates upwards of 50-70%. A similar connection based system exists in regards to the movement of freight, focusing around hub airports such as Memphis in the United States.

This is not the case in Australia, where the majority of aircraft passengers arriving at Australia’s capital city airports have reached their destination rather than transiting through. This places Western Sydney Airport a step behind the global aerotropolis cities of the world, as airline transfer passenger movements cannot be generated through Sydney.

Frequent flight accessibility to a large number of destinations is often a key attractor to businesses in choosing to locate or invest near an airport. Naturally, this means that airports which double as geographical transfer points are poised to benefit from this, as they can gain additional inbound and outbound patronage from transferring passengers who never actually visit the city at hand. This boosts the financial feasibility of further flights and destinations from the city that people are transiting through. However, Western Sydney Airport will not have this benefit, meaning that for its commercial success it will need to rely on origin and destination passenger traffic travelling either to or from the Sydney region.

Passengers to and from Regional areas form a considerable portion of passengers who do currently transfer through Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport, however regional airlines are unlikely to initially use Western Sydney Airport due to the relative inaccessibility of the new airport, combined with a legal framework which protects a quantum of regional airline landing ‘slots’ at Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport. Airport related development is a key way to generate this demand, providing reciprocal benefits of locating businesses and services where there are likely to take advantage of the airport, and therefore attracting more visitors to Western Sydney.


Airport CompetitionAdditionally, many global aerotropolis cities have only grown to fruition from a program of new aviation infrastructure combined with restriction or closure of older historical airports. The closure of Hong Kong’s Kai Tak enabled the delivery of Hong Kong International airport, the conversion of Singapore’s Paya Lebar to an air base enabled the success of Changi Airport. The strong restriction on use of Dallas Love Field contributed to the strong growth of Dallas Fort Worth International, with airlines and passengers either forced or enticed to provide services for the newer facilities.

On this basis, Western Sydney Airport is naturally placed at a disadvantage when competing with Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport, which is an established inner city airport with a historical carrier base, which will likely operate under similar regulations to current airport operations following the opening of Western Sydney Airport. Designation of Western Sydney Airport as a regional airport would go some way towards levelling out the playing field, as it allows airlines which are currently capacity constrained at capital city airports of Australia (such as Cathay Pacific) to operate services to the new airport which will not cannibalise existing profitable routes. However, the competitive disadvantage which the new airport will initially experience is one which will inherently need to be acknowledged through future planning decisions around the new airport if it is to succeed. It is not unheard of for inadequately planned and underserviced airports to fail to attract airlines, especially when there is an alternative airport which is closer to a metropolitan centre.

03 The former Hong Kong Kai Tak Airport was closed and is currently in the process of redevelopment, following the opening of expanded facilities at Chek Lap Kok 20 kilometres to the west.


Case Study: Mirabel International Airport (Montreal, Canada)Mirabel International Airport is an example of this, whereby a new airport was built on the outskirts of Montreal in 1979, but was not provided with adequate transport infrastructure nor developed as a hub in its own right. Despite early commercial successes originating from the forced movement of airlines to the new facility, it was in some ways inevitable that business would move back to the historic International Airport facilities closer to the city sooner or later. Airlines and government authorities could not justify long international-domestic transfer times between the airports, the lack of ground accessibility from the new airport facilities, or the competitive disadvantage of the new airport facilities to other Canadian cities or Montreal more broadly. This should serve as a warning to all stakeholders of the need to get the land use, infrastructure and policy settings right from the start.

04 The deserted passenger terminal at Mirabel International Airport in Montreal, has not received any flights since 2004. The terminal has since been demolished and the land is now used as a racetrack.

05 Mirabel Airport Passenger Terminal midway through demolition which commenced in November 2014.

Ensuring the Delivery of an Aerotropolis


To ensure the successful establishment and operation of an Australian aerotropolis, it is vital to create the right policy setting to ensure that the future airport can optimise benefits for Western Sydney. Below are key steps to enable Sydney to realise the benefits of a fully-fledged, successful aerotropolis city.

Success FactorsWhen analysing the success factors of aerotropolis precincts globally, it is clear there is no standard formula to guarantee their viability, with the unique opportunities and constraints affecting the performance of each global case study. Despite planned transportation connections to this location, and a strong supply of undeveloped land, the Western Sydney Airport will not be able to attract substantial transferring passenger numbers, and will accordingly struggle to compete against Kingsford Smith Airport. This will hinder the profitability of air traffic routes, particularly in the vital early stages of operations.

Additionally, even with a constrained Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport, Sydney will still have a small global population footprint of approximately 8-10 million people at maturity, with two fully fledged international airports projected to service it. These factors mean that it will be a necessity for Western Sydney Airport to generate a portion of its own demand from the surrounding land uses, making airport related development all the more vital for the future success of the airport.

Ensuring the Delivery of an Aerotropolis


• The full life cycle of the airport is heavily influenced by, and interrelated with the associated infrastructure delivery program in the surrounding region.

A Clear Plan for Infrastructure DeliveryGiven the significant role that the airport is poised to play in the future development of the Western Sydney Airport city, there needs to be a clear upfront plan to outline how this development is envisaged to occur. The first step in this process is identification of the necessary infrastructure required to be delivered alongside the core airport facilities. It is fundamental that benefits from the surrounding uses are realised from the commencement of operations. If businesses are to be strategically located in the vicinity

of the airport, the short, medium and long term supporting infrastructure must be approved upfront to give greater certainty and confidence for investment in the airport surrounds. Given the attractor of the airport as a place of high connectivity, the order and maturity of uses surrounding the airport will reflect the nature of connecting infrastructure which is communicated to the market upfront. Accordingly, as additional infrastructure is announced, constructed and operations are commenced, it can be expected that the nature and intensity of uses will synergistically mature, and higher order uses will strategically locate in proximity of the site.

B

T

M

• Commencement ofAirport Operations

• Airport Road Access Available, with some public transport linkages

• Generally lower order uses, with some higher order uses in key locations

• Intensification of road transport access• Maturity of uses across the precinct• Emergence of key centres and nodes

• Rail transport established to the site• Linear higher order use growth• Significant improvement in accessibility

• Rail network established across the precinct

• Advanced higher order uses growth

• Strong accessibility across the region

Pre-Operations

Short Term

Medium Term

Long Term

THE AIRPORT LIFE CYCLE: TRANSPORT - LAND USE RELATIONSHIP


It is in the interests of airport development and Western Sydney to ensure that lands which benefit from the optimal access to the airport are developed to their highest and best uses possible, right through the airport life cycle.


A Full Generational LifecycleThe development of Western Sydney Airport and its surrounds should be viewed as a complete life cycle process. When the airport commences operations, it will have a similar operating level to the Gold Coast airport today, and the planning system needs to be responsive and flexible if it is to truly cater to a generation of airport related uses from the commencement of construction in 2020 and beyond. Restricting land use for the preservation of higher order uses would cap the potential patronage growth of the airport in its vital early days, as well as deliver an undesirable oversupply of vacant land due to a lack of market demand. Every year that the land surrounding the airport is not economically performing to its best is another year that the potential economic output of the region is capped, and another year that the demand and business case for additional flights is not stimulated by the surrounding economy.

It may be considered desirable to protect surrounding land until an undetermined point in the future, so that land close to the airport is not sacrificed for development which restricts the longer-term potential of the site. However, considering that planning controls can

safeguard this outcome and incentivise renewal at the appropriate time, it is in the interests of airport development and Western Sydney to ensure that lands which benefit from the optimal access to the airport are developed to their highest and best uses possible, right through the airport life cycle.

In order to achieve this, uses must be optimal for the growth of the airport at each and every stage.

The uses in the airport surrounds, much like the airport itself, will mature and grow over time in a synergistic way, and land use restrictions need to reflect this. Use controls should be developed which are subject to a life cycle test, whereby present applications should not restrict future development (for example, through land fragmentation). That way, as demand for future higher order uses generates, the existing development at the site can be converted in line with the market, and not be hindered by the planning system. At the same time, initial higher order uses, such as a university campus, could be developed alongside this in a manner which ensures that land around the airport is economically utilised to achieve maximum benefit.

Conclusion


It can be difficult to comprehend how Badgerys Creek will evolve into the next great Australian city, a process which will not be without technical and planning challenges as we grapple with the nation’s first greenfield aerotropolis. However, the opportunities that the airport can offer to Western Sydney are unmatched, and the delivery of such benefits cannot be hindered by avoidable processes.

The identification of the intent to develop an aerotropolis early in the planning process is the single largest step the government should take at this time, and the forethought on this matter by the Greater Sydney Commission is commendable. However, to enable the private sector to harmonise with the plans of all three levels of government, acknowledgement of the unique issues associated with the delivery of an aerotropolis, clear communication on the timing and delivery of infrastructure is vital. There also needs to be flexibility around the uses, densities and spatial distribution of airport related development throughout the life cycle of the project.

An aerotropolis could be the catalyst that Western Sydney has been waiting for, however it is not necessarily a matter of ‘build it and they will come’. If we are to truly maximise the once-in-a-generation benefits afforded by the airport, we must ensure that the planning system can facilitate the aerotropolis of the future.

Conclusion


Image Sources:

1. (Aerotropolis or Aviation Precinct): Arch Daily, courtesy of Evolve Media and John Kasarda <http://www.archdaily.com/345704/aerotropolis-the-key-to-a-prosperous-21st-century-city) Page 5>

2. (End of earth location): Western Sydney Airport Environmental Impact Statement, 2016

3. (Kai Tak): Bouyges Construction <http://www.bouygues-construction.com.au/project/kai-tak-cruise-terminal-hong-kong/>

4. (Mirabel Departures): thestar.com <https://www.thestar.com/business/2014/09/17/mirabel_airport_demolition_to_go_ahead.html>

5. (Mirabel Demolition): Montreal Racing <http://www.montrealracing.com/wp/wp/2014/11/mirabel-passenger-terminal-beingdemolished/?lang=en>

The Team


The Team

Tim SmithUrbanist — B. Plan(Hons I) MPIA

Tim is an Urbanist who holds a Bachelor of Planning degree with Class 1 Honours from the University of New South Wales. Tim has considerable experience in the delivery of housing, infrastructure and commercial development right across the Sydney Basin, including work from the Sydney CBD right through to the Sydney Region Growth Centres. Tim also has a unique level of experience in the relationship of aviation and planning, with specific experience around the future Western Sydney Aerotropolis, and receipt of the John Shaw Memorial Prize for his thesis work around the impact of aviation on the social and economic performance of regional centres.

Gordon KirkbyDirector — BEc Dip URP MPIA

Gordon has over 25 years’ experience in a broad range of urban and regional planning projects. His experience includes residential, retail, commercial, transit oriented, industrial and infrastructure development. He has extensive experience in all aspects of strategic planning, environmental impact assessment and policy formulation delivering major projects in both the public and private sectors. He is the current Chair of the Western NSW Joint Regional Planning Panel and a casual member of the NSW Planning Assessment Commission.

Introduction to the Aerotropolis

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