Introduction to Scenario Analysis Techniques (Part 3)...(2005). Scenario modeling in prospective LCA...
Transcript of Introduction to Scenario Analysis Techniques (Part 3)...(2005). Scenario modeling in prospective LCA...
Prospective Environmental
Assessments
Introduction to Scenario
Analysis Techniques (Part 3)
Dr. Andy Spörri ([email protected])
Ernst Basler + Partner AG, Resources, Energy + Climate, Zollikerstrasse 65, 8702 Zollikon
March 7, 2017; HCI J7
Schedule of today (Lecture 3)
» Short wrap-up of lecture 2
» FSA Focus B
» Phase 3: Projection
» Phase 4: Scenario selection and interpretation
» Linking FSA to modeling and assessment methods
» Material flow analysis (MFA)
» Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
» Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
» Typology & characteristics of scenarios
» Strategic planning
» Functions of scenario analysis in strategic planning and
decision making
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Phase 3 & 4 of FSA
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Phase 3: Projection (step 3.1 & 3.2)
» Future level definition (step 3.1), e.g.:
» 1: Minimum extreme
» 2: Trend extrapolation
» 3: Maximum extreme
» Consistency assessment (step 3.2)
» 2: conditional
» 1: supportive
» 0: independent
» -1: obstructive
» -2: inconsistent
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Phase 3: Projection (step 3.3)
» Scenario construction (step 3.3)
» Scenario as combination of different future levels of all
impact factors used to describe and analyze a system
» Calculation scenario indices of all possible scenarios (used
for the selection)
» Additive and/or multiplicative consistency
» Number of inconsistencies
» Local efficiency (neighborhood characteristics)
» Pre-filter during scenario construction:
» Number of tolerated inconsistency
» Threshold value for additive and/or multiplicative consistency
Significant reduction of original number of scenarios
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Phase 4: Selection & interpretation (step 4.1)
» Goal
» Selection of a small (4-8) set of consistent,
diverse and representative scenarios
(cf. Tietje, 2005; Spoerri et al., 2009)
» Two fundamentally different procedures
» Data driven (bottom up, inductive) selection
» Based on algorithms relying on calculated
scenario indices
» Local efficiency selection
» “Tietje” selection
» “Distance-to-selected” selection
» Concept driven (top down, deductive) selection
» Applied if the study team has conceptual ideas
about the future of the investigated system (
representative scenarios)
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Phase 4: Selection & interpretation (step 4.2)
Illustrative results
» Description & Interpretation (step 4.2)
» Synthesis of the final scenarios to a comprehensive and
accessible “picture” based on all insights gained in the
analysis
» Scenario A-2 “Recycling as a self-runner”
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Phase 4: Selection & interpretation (step 4.2)
Illustrative results
» Description & Interpretation (step 4.2)
» Synthesis of the final scenarios to a comprehensive and
accessible “picture” based on all insights gained in the
analysis
» Scenario A-2: “Monopoly of gravel suppliers – breakdown
of recycling”
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Summary FSA
Reality Concept Model Scenarios Pictures
1 Goal formation 2 System
analysis
3 Projection 4 Selection &
interpretation
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios,
modeling &
assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology
& characteristics
Strategic planning
Scenarios, modeling & assessment
methods
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
FSA, modeling & assessment methods
» Goal
» Assessment of environmental/sustainability performance of
developed future states of a system (prospective
assessment)
» Relevance
» Decisions of today determine impacts over long time periods
(e.g., urban infrastructures)
» Example from thermal waste management:
» Investment in thermal treatment facility determine
environmental performance for several decades (±30 years)
» Environmental performance of specific technology depends
on various future developments, such as:
» Future waste compositions
» Energy price developments
» Changes in legal standards
» Efficiency of landfill mining (technology learning curve)
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
FSA & MFA (e.g., emission models)
Case Study Waste Scenarios for the European Union in
2050
» Goal: Prospective analysis of future emissions from
municipal solid waste incineration in the European Union
» Scenario analysis
» Development of scenarios to determine waste amounts of
the European Union in 2050
» Based on the analysis of impacts of EU Directives on future
waste amounts
Amounts of household, commercial & medical waste,
sewage sludge going into: (i) Recycling, (ii) Incineration, (iii)
Landfill
» Linking scenarios to emission model
» From waste amounts to material composition
as inputs to WM model
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
FSA & Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
» General procedure (principle):
» Translate scenarios into future state specific Life Cycle
Inventory (LCI)
» Depending on constructed scenarios more or less
concretization steps are required to link scenarios to LCI
Scenario analysis LCA
Life Cycle Inventory
Life Cycle Impact Assessment
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
FSA & Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
Examples:
» Waste scenarios for the European Union in 2050
» Elementary compositions could also be used for the
environmental impact assessment of different thermal
treatment or waste management options, e.g.:
» Grate-incineration with additional metal recovery from residues
» Waste gasification
» Waste gasification combined with ash melting
» Pre-treatment, sensor-based separation techniques
» Prospective LCA of transport systems in 2020
» Spielmann, M., Scholz, R.W., Tietje, O. & de Haan, P.
(2005). Scenario modeling in prospective LCA of transport
systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis.
International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10(5), 325-
335.
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Prospective LCA of transport systems 1
Framing of the study
» Goals
» Methodological
» Conceptualization of uncertainties in prospective environmental
assessment by the application of Formative Scenario Analysis
» Case study
» Prospective assessment of environmental performance of
regional passenger transport alternatives in 2020 taking into
account different cornerstone scenarios
» Transport alternatives
» Rail transport
» low cost
» comfort
» ultra-light
» Bus
» Private car
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Prospective LCA of transport systems 2
Basic Procedure
LCI of transport
systems
- Train
- Bus
- Car
Technological
factors
Time dependent
Environmentally
relevant
Socio-economic
factors
Embedding
FSALCA
Scenarios
Projection & Selection
∆ L
CI b
ase
d o
n fu
ture
le
ve
ls
of te
ch
no
logy v
aria
ble
s
LCIA
Scenario specific, prospective environmental impacts
of different regional transport systems in 2020
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Prospective LCA of transport systems
Unit process scenarios
Technology factors Socio-economic factors
Impact assessment
& analysis
Future level def. &
consistency
assessment
Linking technology
factors to LCI
Factor identification
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Prospective LCA of transport systems
Impact factors for unit process “Operation Bus”
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Prospective LCA of transport systems
Impact factors for unit process “Operation Bus”
Manufacturing
low cost train
Energy mix 100% Natural gas no change 60% NG & 40% LFO
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Prospective LCA of transport systems
Results – Greenhouse gas emissionsWrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Prospective LCA of transport systems
Results – NOx emissionsWrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
FSA & Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
(MAUT)
» Goal
» Assessment of utility (attractiveness) of impacts/outcomes of
a set of alternatives (e.g., scenarios)
» Identification of ‘best’ alternative based on a set of
performance attributes (i.e., criteria)
» Procedure
a) Determine assessment perspective
b) Define utility criteria and respective indicators
c) Perform criteria-specific judgments for each alternative
d) Define utility function to translate judgment into criteria-
specific utility
e) Aggregate criteria-specific utilities and standardize overall
utility
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
MAUT: Illustration of general procedure
a) Assessment persp.
e) Overall utility
b) Criteria set
c) Judgments
d) Utility functions
Figuera, J., Greco, S., Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multiple criteria decision analysis. State of the art.
New York: Springer.
Aggregation methods
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
FSA & Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
(MAUT)
» MAUT I vs. MAUT II
» MAUT I
» Evidence- and data-based, “objective” utility assessment
» ‘Classical scientific’ assessment
» MAUT II
» Stakeholder- and preference-based, subjective utility assessment
» Intuitive assessment
» Assessment foci
» Different and case-specific sets of criteria applicable
depending on the assessment perspective, e.g.,
» Environmental performance
» Eco-efficiency (e.g., environmental performance related to costs)
» Sustainability performance
» Desirability
» Probability
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Exploration parcours (MAUT II)
» Structured procedure to reveal and record the interests
and evaluations of stakeholders
Loukopoulos, P. & Scholz, R.W. (2004). Sustainable future urban mobility: using ‘area
development negotiation’ for scenario assessment and participatory strategic planning.
Environment and Planning A, 36, 2203-2226.
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Typology & Characteristics of Scenarios
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
t0 time
Future analysis
» Various methods/approaches available to analyze future
system developments
» From quantitative system modeling to qualitative exploration
of system developments and future states
» Appropriate methods depends on various characteristics of
the investigated system
a) Degree of complexity and uncertainty
b) Considered time horizon
c) Scope of the future analysis (focus)
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Degree of complexity & uncertainty
» Facets of complexity
» Multi-dimensional (highly interdisciplinary)
» Multi-scale (processes interact at various scales)
» Nature/character of interactions
Wicked, ill-defined problem (vs. well-defined vs. task)
Van Asselt, M.B.A. (2000). Perspectives on uncertainty and risk: The PRIMA approach to
decision support. Dordrecht: Kluver.
Scholz, R.W. & Tietje, O. (2002). Embedded case study methods. Integrating quantitative
and qualitative methods. Thousand Oaks: Sage.
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Degree of complexity & uncertainty
Graphical illustration
3 2
1
Direct impact
(linear &
non-linear,
fuzzy)
Indirect impact
(1-3 via 2)
5 6
System
A
Context
A
Feedback
loop(1-1 via 2 & 3)
System B
Context B
Policy
BehaviorNature
1’
2’3’
International lawWorld economy
Sys
tem
bo
un
da
ry
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
A typology of scenarios
Scenarios
Predictive Explorative Normative
Transformin
g
PreservingStrategicExternalWhat-ifForecasts
» Combination of scenario types often
done, e.g. IPCC emission scenarios:
» Predictive scenarios for well-understood
systems (e.g., energy consumption and
GHG emissions, embedded in socio-
economic/political contexts (explorative)
Höjer, M., Ahlroth, S., Dreborg, K-H., Ekvall, T., Finnveden, G. et al. (2008). Scenarios in
selected tools for environmental system analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16, 1958-
1970.
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Scopes of scenario types
» Predictive: “What will happen?”
» Forecasts: “What will happen provided that the most likely
development unfolds?”
» What-if: “What will happen on the condition of some
specified events?”
» Explorative: “What can happen?”
» External: “What can happen to the development of external
factors?”
» Strategic: “What can happen if we act in a certain way?”
» Normative: “How can a specific target be reached?”
» Preserving: “How can the target be met by adjustments to
current situation?”
» Transforming: “How can a target be met, when prevailing
structure blocks necessary changes?”
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Analyzing the future of a system
From prediction to exploration of the future
» From parameter variations to explorations of new
systems…
Time horizon
De
gre
e o
f c
om
ple
xit
y
short-term long-term
hig
hlo
w
Swart, R.J., Raskin, P. & Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability
science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14, 137-146.
‘Real’ scenario techniques
Quantitative
modeling/
simulationPredictive
Normative
Explorative
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Further categorization of scenarios
Prediction
Exploration
Normative
Quantitative
Qualitative
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Po
ssib
ilit
y
FSA
Cross-impact
analysis
Quantitative system
modeling
Storytelling
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Categorization of FSA
» Methodology for construction of explorative scenarios
» Both external and strategic scenarios
» Methodology for construction of normative scenarios
» Backward planning approach in FSA
» Start from defined goals (scenarios)
» Perform system analysis
» Perform projection with consistency assessment
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Scenarios in strategic planning
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Strategic planning
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Functions of scenarios (result-related)
Results (scenarios/future states)… Basis for assessment of scenarios (MAUT I & II)
Input for modeling (e.g., SFA) and prospective assessment (e.g., LCA)
Initial step for strategy development
Counseling decision-makers
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
Functions of scenarios (procedural)
» Procedural functions are linked to collaboration between
science and practice (i.e., transdisciplinarity)
Mutual learning between science and practice
Capacity building for system transformations
Wrap-up Lecture 2
Scenarios, modeling
& assessment
methods
MFA
LCA
MAUT
Scenario typology &
characteristics
Strategic planning
CU next week