Introduction to Macroeconomics

Chapter No.1

What is Macroeconomics?

• Macroeconomics is the study of the structure and performance of national economies and of the policies that governments use to try to affect economic performance of a country.

Issues in Macroeconomics• What determines a nation's long-run

economic growth?• What causes a nation's economic activity to

fluctuate?• What causes unemployment?• What causes prices to rise?• How does being part of a global economic

system affect nations' economies ?• Can government policies be used to improve a

nation's economic performance?

Some Important Concepts

Long - Run Economic Growth

• Difference in standard of living in different countries.

• Some economies experienced sustainable economic growth.

• Some nations have never experienced sustained growth or have had periods of growth offset by periods of economic decline.

“ Hence the period of rapid economic growth which is offset period of economic decline is known as long run growth.”

Output of the U.S. economy 1869-2008

• The long-run growth in USA is a result of increase in population and average productivity of labour Force.

APL = TP/L

Business Cycle

• Macroeconomists use the term business cycle to describe short-run, but sometimes sharp, contractions and expansions in economic activity.

• The downward phase of a business cycle, during which national output may be falling or perhaps growing only very slowly, is called a recession.

Unemployment

• Unemployment is the number of people who are available for work and are actively seeking work but cannot find jobs.

• It is measured by unemployment rate.Ur = Number of unemployed/Total labour force• Recessions have led to significant increases in

unemployment.

Analytical Question

Can average labour productivity fall even though total output is rising? Can the unemployment rate rise even though total output is rising?

Inflation

• When the prices of most goods and services are rising over time, the economy is said to be experiencing inflation.

• The percentage increase in the average level of prices over a year is called the inflation rate.

• High inflation also means that the purchasing power of money erodes quickly.

Problem No.1

• Here are some macroeconomic data for the country of O for the years 2008 and 2009.

2008 2009

Output 12000 14300

Employed 1000 1100

Unemployed 100 50

Total labour force 1100 1150

Prices 2 2.5

Required

a. Average labour productivity in 2008 and 2009.b. The growth rate of average labour productivitybetween 2008 and 2009.c. The unemployment rate in 2008 and 2009.d. The inflation rate between 2008 and 2009.

What Macroeconomists Do?

• Macroeconomic Forecasting• Macroeconomic Analysis Monitoring of the economy and think about the implications of current economic events.• Macroeconomic Research

Economic Theory

• An economic theory is a set of ideas about the economy that has been organized in a logical framework. Most economic theories are developed in terms of an economic model.

• Economic model is a simplified description of some aspect of the economy, usually expressed in mathematical form.

Economic Policy

• Set of instruction to control the performance of the economy.

• There are two types of macro economic policies

1.Fiscal Policy2.Monetary Policy

Economic Analysis

• Positive Analysis• Normative Analysis

Positive Analysis

• A positive analysis of an economic policy examines the economic consequences of a policy but doesn't address the question of whether those consequences are desirable.

• e.g. if a tax is imposed on a good its price will tend to rise.

Normative Analysis

• A normative analysis of policy tries to determine whether a certain policy should be used.

• e.g. a tax should be imposed on tobacco to discourage smoking

Analytical Question 2

Which of the following statements are positive in nature and which are normative?a. A tax cut will raise interest rates.b. A reduction in the payroll tax would primarily benefitpoor and middle-class workers.c. Payroll taxes are too high.d. A cut in the payroll tax would improve the President'spopularity ratings.e. Payroll taxes should not be cut unless capital gains taxes are cut also.

Classical Versus Keynesians

Classical Approach•Adam Smith (1776)•Published book Wealth of Nation.•Concept of invisible hand

Keynesian Approach•Great Depression (1936)•John Maynard Keynes •General theory of Employment, Interest and Money

The Classical Approach

• The invisible hand of Economics: General welfare will be maximized (not the distribution of wealth) if:– there are free markets;– individuals act in their own best interest.

The Classical Approach (continued)

• To maintain markets’ equilibrium – the quantities demanded and supplied are equal:– Markets must function without impediments.– Wages and prices should be flexible.

The Classical Approach (continued)

• Thus, according to the classical approach, the government should have a limited role in the economy.

The Keynesian Approach

• Keynes (1936) assumed that wages and prices adjust slowly.

• Thus, markets could be out of equilibrium for long periods of time and unemployment can persist.

The Keynesian Approach (continued)

• Therefore, according to the Keynesian approach, governments can take actions to alleviate unemployment.

The Keynesian Approach (continued)

• The government can purchase goods and services, thus increasing the demand for output and reducing unemployment.

• Newly generated incomes would be spent and would raise employment even further.

Evolution of the Classical-Keynesian Debate

• After stagflation – high unemployment and high inflation – of the 1970s, a modernized classical approach reappeared.

• Substantial communication and cross-pollination is taking place between the classical and the Keynesian approaches.

Unified Approach to Macroeconomics

• Individuals, firms and the government interact in goods, asset and labour markets.

• The macroeconomic analysis is based on the analysis of individual behaviour.

The Unified Approach (continued)

• Keynesian and classical economists agree that in the long run prices and wages adjust to equilibrium levels.

• The basic model will be used either with classical or Keynesian assumptions about flexibility of wages and prices in the short run.

The Measurement and Structure of the National Economy

Chapter No.2

National Income Accounts

• The national income accounts are an accounting framework used in measuring current economic activity.

Approaches of Measurement

• Product Approach (excluding output used in intermediate stage of production).

• Income Approach (income received by the producer of output)

• Expenditure Approach (amount of spending by the ultimate purchaser of the output).

Product Approach

• The product approach measures economic activity by adding the market values of goods and services produced, excluding any goods and services used up in intermediate stages of production.

• Concept of value added (value of output minus value of input)

Income Approach• The income approach measures economic

activity by adding all income received by producers of output

• Rent, are the income from from property received by house hold

• Interest, Private business pay to house hold • Wages, received by workers.It is largest component of

National Income• Profit, received by owners of firm

Expenditure Approach

• The expenditure approach measures activity by adding the amount spent by all ultimate users of output.

The Expenditure Approach to Measuring GDP

• The expenditure approach measures GDP as total spending on final goods and services produced within a nation during a specified period of time.

• Total spending on goods and services includes:1. Consumption (C)2. Investment (I)3. Government Expenditure (G)4. Net Export (NX)

Consumption

• Consumption is spending by domestic households on final goods and services, including those produced abroad.

• Consumption expenditures are grouped into three categories:

1.Consumer durables (car, television, mobile)2.Nondurable goods (food, cloth, fuel)3.Services (Education, Health care, Financial

Services)

Investment

• Investment includes both spending for new capital goods, called fixed investment, and increases in firms' inventory holdings, called inventory investment.

• Fixed investment in turn has two major components:

1.Business Investment2.Residential Investment

Government Expenditure

• Government expenditure include any spending by the government for a currently produced good or service.

• It also include the transfer payment (benefit) to the individuals of the country.

Net Export

• Net exports are exports minus imports.• If exports are greater than imports NX >0.• If exports are less than imports NX<0.

Income-Expenditure Identity

• Y = GDP = total production (or output) = total income = total expenditure; Y = C + I + G + NX.

Fundamental Identity of NationalIncome Accounting

total production=total income=total expenditure

Gross Domestic Product

• Gross domestic product used to measure the over all economic activity of a country.

• GDP is calculate by using the following approaches:

1.Product approach2.Expenditure approach 3.Income approach

Product Approach

• A nation's gross domestic product (GDP) as the market value of final goods and services newly produced within a nation during a fixed period of time.

Market Value

• Goods and services are counted in GDP at their market values that is, at the prices at which they are sold.

Advantages:• It allows adding the production of different goods

and services. Disadvantages:• Some useful goods and services are not sold in

formal markets.

Market Value (Cont……)

• Some nonmarket goods and services are partially incorporated in official GDP measures. An example is activities in the so-called underground economy.

• The underground economy includes both legal activities (hidden from government record keepers to avoid payment of taxes) and illegal activities (drug dealing and gambling).

Newly Produced Goods and Services

• As a measure of current economic activity, GDP includes only goods or services that are newly produced within the current period.

Final Goods and Services

• Only the value of final goods and services include in the measurement of GDP.

• Final goods also include capital goods and inventory investment.

GDP Versus GNP

• Gross National Product is the market value of final goods and services newly produced by domestic factors of production during the current period, whereas GDP is production taking place within a country.

GNP = GDP + NFP GDP = GNP - NFP

Net Factor of Payment

• NFP is the income earned by the domestic factor of production from the rest of the world.

• From the above definition, GDP = GNP – NFP

• In developed economies GNP = GDP.• In Underdeveloped economies GNP > GDP.

Measures of National Income

• Net National Product– Less: Capital Consumption Allownce– Add: Subsidy

• National Income at market price• National Income at factor cost• Personal Income• Personal Disposable Income

Private Disposable Income (PDI)• Private disposable income, measures the amount

of income the private sector has available to spend.

• Mathematically, PDI = Y + NFP + TR + INT - T

Y = gross domestic product (GDP);NFP = net factor payments from abroad;TR = transfers received from the government;INT = interest payments on the government's debt;T = taxes.

Net Government Income (NGI)

• Net government income equals taxes paid by the private sector, T, minus payments from the government to the private sector (transfers and interest payments on the government debt)

• Mathematically, NGI = T – TR -INT

Saving

• Private Saving: private saving is equal to private disposable income minus consumption.

Spvt = (Y+NFP+TR+INT-T)-C• Government Saving: It is defined as net

government income less government purchases of goods and services.

Sgov = (T - TR - INT) - G.

National Saving

• S = Spvt + Sgov• = (Y+NFP+TR+INT-T)-C + (T - TR - INT) - G.• S= I + CA• Uses of Spvt1, Spvt is used to fund new capital (Investment)2, Provide the resource to Govt needs to finance

its budget deficit (-Sgov)2, Foreign lending

Current Account (CA)

• The current account balance equals payments received from abroad in exchange for currently produced goods and services (including factor services), minus the analogous payments made to foreigners by the domestic economy.

• CA = NX + NFP• NX = X – M• NFP = Income from abroad – Payment made to

abroad

National Wealth• The value of all assets own by a person or country.• Current assets – Current Liabilities• It is total wealth of the residents of a country, it

consist two parts1, Domestic physical assets (Stock of capital, goods,

Land)2,Net foreign assets= Countries foreign assets(foreign

stock, bonds and factories own by domestic resident) minus its foreign liabilities (domestic physical and financial assets own by foreigners)

Note: Domestic financial assets held by domestic residents are not part of National wealth.

National wealth can change in two ways.1, Value of existing assets or liabilities that make

up national wealth * Stock Prices• The wearing out or depreciation of physical assets

which corresponded to a drop in the value of asset

2, National Saving• Increase in domestic stock of capital • Increase in stock of net foreign assets ( NX+NFP)

Nominal and Real GDP

• Nominal GDP measure the current dollar value of the output of the country

• Total output at current prices• Y= Pn X Qn Pn= new price, Qn= new Quantity

• Real GDP measure output at base year or constant prices

• Y = Pb X Qn Pb = Base year price

GDP deflator

• The GDP deflator is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy

• GDP deflator = nominal GDP / Real GDP• = Pn X Qn / Po X Qn

• Real GDP = nominal GDP / GDP deflator• nominal GDP=Real GDP X GDP deflator

Consumer Price Index ( CPI)

• Consumer Price Index• measures changes in the price level of a

market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The CPI in the Pakistan is defined by the ministry of finance as "a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Calculation of Growth rate

• Growth Rate =

• (Current – Previous/ Previous) X100

Difference b/w CPI and GDP price Index

• Three main differences are

1, GDP deflator measure prices of all goods & services produced where as CPI measure the prices of only goods & services bought by consumer.

2, GDP deflator shows the prices of all goods & services produced domestically, imported goods are not included in GDP deflator. CPI consider imported goods.

3, CPI is computed using fixed basket of goods. GDP deflator allows the basket of goods to change overtime as the composition of GDP deflator.

Cost of Living

• The dollar does not buy as much as it did ten year ago the cost of every thing almost gone up.

• Which price index better explain increase in cost of living.

• GDP deflator ( understate increase in cost of living)• Base year price

• CPI ( overstate cost of living)• substitute goods

Interest rate• Rate of return promised by a borrower to a lender is

called nominal interest rate. • Real Interest rate ( r)• An interest rate that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation

to reflect the real cost of funds to the borrower, and the real yield to the lender.

Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation (Actual)• The real interest rate of an investment is calculated as the amount by

which the nominal interest rate is higher than the inflation rate.

Expected Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation (Expected)

• Stock variables • measure at a point of time like money supply

• Flow Variables • Variables that can measure per unit of time• GDP

Circular Flow of Income In Closed Economy