Introduction to GeographyPeople, Places, and Environment, 6eCarl DahlmanWilliam H. Renwick

Chapter 6: Population, Population Increase and Migration

Holly Barcus

Morehead State University

And Joe Naumann

Umsl

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Population

• Population geography– Distribution of humankind

• Emigration • Immigration• Demography

– Specific group characteristics

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Distribution and Density

• Current World Population– 6.3 billion

• Major concentrations – ranked by size1. East Asia2. South Asia3. Europe from the Atlantic to Ural mountains4. Eastern United States and Canada5. Southeast Asia

World Population Cartogram

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Population Density

• Arithmetic density– Number of people per unit of area

• Physiological density– Density of population per unit cropland

• Carrying capacityThe numbers of any population that can be

adequately supported by the available resources upon which that population subsists; for humans, the numbers supportable by the known and utilized resources – usually agricultural – of an area. [closely related to physiological density].

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Definitions:

• Birth Rate (crude birth rate) – Expressed as the number of births per year per 1000 population

• Total Fertility Rate – The average number of children that would be born to each woman if during her child-bearing years, she bore children at the current year’s rate for women that age. Replacement rate is 2.1.

• Death Rate (crude death rate) – Expressed as the number of deaths per year per 1000 population. Also called mortality rate.

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More Definitions:

• Infant Mortality Rate – Expressed as the number of children who die between birth and one year of age in a year per 1000 population.

• Population Pyramid – A graphic depiction of the age and sex composition of a (usually national) population.

• Natural Increase – The growth of a population through excess of births over deaths, excluding the effects of immigration or emigration. This can be a negative number.

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Even More Definitions:

• Doubling Time – The time period required for any beginning total (population) experiencing a compounding growth, to double in size.

• Population Density – the total population of a country divided by the total area in square miles or kilometers.

• Physiological density – (population pressure) The number of persons per unit area of agricultural land. This is more meaningful than population density.

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Factors Influencing Population Distribution

• Climate– Low density– High density

• Topography and soils– Flat areas = easier cultivation – Accessibility to water– Fertile soils

• History– Domestication of plants and animals– Demarcation of cultural and political territories

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World Population Growth

• Crude birth rate

• Crude death rate

• Natural increase

• Natural decrease

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Focus on the last 600 years!

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Exponential Population Growth

• See Demographic Transition Stage Two

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Population Explosion?

• Click on the picture to see the video

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Projections

• Fertility rate• Total fertility rate• Replacement rate• Zero population growth• Doubling time

Population Growth

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Population Pyramids

– Age and sex structure of population

• Dependency ratio– Proportion of population of working age

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Demographic Transition• Many developing countries are in mid to late stage 2 of

the transition.

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Stages of Population Growth

Birth Rate Death Rate Growth Rate

Stage

1

High High Stable or growing slowly -- long doubling time

Stage

2

High & beginning to decline slowly

Dropping sharply

Continually increasing – short doubling time

Stage

3

Declining more rapidly

Dropping but at a slower rate

Increasing but at a declining rate – doubling time still rather short

Stage

4

Low Low stability, or declining – long doubling time

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Demographic Transition Model

• Stage one– Crude birth/death rate high– Fragile population

• Stage two & three– Decreasing death rates – birth rate decreasing in stage

3 too– Infant mortality rate high – declining in stage 3– Natural increase high – declining in stage 3

• Stage four– Indicative of richer developed countries– Higher standards of living/education

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Population Growth

• The meaning of large numbers is relative to a number of factors in each country.– Rate of natural increase

– Average life expectancy

– Carrying capacity or physiological density

– Technological level of the culture and the level of infrastructure development

• Increased physiological Density – increased population pressure

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Growth – China & USA

• China– A 1% growth rate in China means 12,552,910

more people the next year and slightly more the next.

– Arable land (hectares per person) 0.10

• USA– A 1% growth rate in the USA means 2,737,540

more people next year and slightly more the next.

– Arable land (hectares per person) 0.67

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Pressure on the Land

• Terraced rice paddies are very labor-intensive – not a first choice method.

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Carryin

g C

apacity

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Central America

What accounts for growth here?

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Canada’s population

• Why the strange pattern?

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Population Growth

Projection

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Population Structure

• Broad base and narrow top will mean high growth rate

• Yellow: stage 4

• Red: stage 2 & 3

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Selected Countries: Patterns

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China’s Population Policy

• Under Mao Zedong – no emphasis on reducing population growth rate.

• Under Deng Xiaoping – One-child per family policy.

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The Demographic Transition

• The Western Experience – Four stages are based on the European experience

• Today, we live in a world divided.– Developed vs. developing countries– Effects of urbanization and industrialization are

taking longer to influence population growth rates in the developing countries.

– Developing countries are not experiencing a gradual shift resulting from technological and social changes occurring within their culture – it is more a response to outside influences.

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Difference in Transitions

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Urbanization – Developed World

• Europe & North America grew with the industrial revolution – lower birth rates in urban areas of developed countries.

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Urbanization –Developing World

• Asia, Africa, Latin America, etc. increased as an alternative to rural poverty or famine, but there often wasn’t enough industrial development to provide jobs – favelas and barrios

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Life Expectancy

• Infant mortality rate

• Antibiotics/immunization

• Rapid increase throughout world

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Population - Developed Countries

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Infant Mortality Rates

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New Influences on Birth Rates

• Family planning programs• Contraceptive technology• Role of mass media

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Declining numbers of school-age children in some Asian countries – 2000 – 2020 CE

What’s different

about these countries?

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Population Control

• Obstacles–Manufacture/distribution expense–Religion–Low female status–Preference of male children (females

marry and join their husband’s family)

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Birth Control Programs

• One family/one child policies (China by law)– Female infanticide

– Social compensation fees

• Sterilization (India: of men by persuasion)• Loss of status• Termination healthcare/food coupons• Free birth control• Increased literacy – important for success

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Population Data and Projections

• Population Data Sources – not always clear– United Nations

– World Bank

– Population Reference Bureau

– National censuses --

• Population Projections – estimates of future population size, age, and sex composition based on current data. Based on observed trends.

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Projected GrowthBased on Census Data

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World Death Rates

• Infectious diseases– HIV/AIDS– SARS – affects lung mechanics

• Degenerative diseases– Obesity – more serious in developed countries like USA– Tobacco use – legal, insidious, money-making addiction

• Epidemiology – – all the elements contributing to the occurrence or

nonoccurrence of a disease in a population; ecology of a disease

• Epidemiological transition – infectious to degenerative

Estimated Number of Persons of Concern Who Fall Under the Mandate

of UNHCR

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Overpopulation?

• Malthus and Neo-Malthusianism – Sees a direct relationship between the size of population and the means of subsistence.– Dire predictions were not realized because N. & S. America were

discovered and could greatly increase the world’s carrying capacity – for a time

– Can technology be counted on to forever push back the perceived limits on food production and pollution control?

• Cornucopians– Optimistic perspective: technology will find a way, somehow– Jean Antoine Condorcet

• Analogy of “fruit fly jars”

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Overpopulation?• Overpopulation – relative term – according to

whose perceptions? Has some relationship to carrying capacity or physiological density

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Cartogram 1995 population

• Note Africa & Asia

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Cartogram 2030 population

• Note Africa & Asia

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Population Prospects

• Worldwide Fertility Declines – – Effects of urbanization– Government programs – India, Singapore, China

• Implications of Demographic Momentum– Age structure is significant in keeping growth

going – large populations below age 15 keep growing – improved health extends the time in which they may procreate

• The Aging of World Population– Even in developing countries – exceeding

developed ones – Must be supported by the young . . .

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Demographic Patterns

• Sex ratios– Effects of

• Ultrasound, amniocentesis• Male status

• Aging– Increased median age– Rich countries

• Sustaining economic growth• The “sandwich generation”• Medical needs

– Poor countries• Young populations• Changing social needs

Spatial Behavior –Migration &Immigration

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Spatial Behavior

• Affected by perceptions

• Affected by sense of space– Personal– Community

• Aspect of culture

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Mental Maps – personal perception of reality

• Vary greatly according to one’s experiences & interests & reaction to distance decay– Influence our actions and decisions– Fred Broer’s visit to St. Louis -- 1965

• I was raised in N. St. Louis and N. St. Louis County– I have a fairly accurate mental map of those

areas– S. St. Louis and S. St. Louis County are much

less accurate in my mental map

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Perception of Natural Hazards

• Earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunami, mudslides, etc.

• Why do people choose to live where they occur?– Great River Road north of Alton, IL

• What they know – it’s home.• Hazards occur infrequently – another “flood of

93” isn’t expected for a long time.• Prohibitive cost of relocation

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Activity Space

• Personal Activity Space – realm of free movement

• Territoriality – emotional attachment to an area– Personal space varies according to cultures

– Ethnic neighborhoods – some persist for a long time

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3 variables affect activity space

• Stage in Life Course – age-group membership parameters

• Mobility – ability to travel– Personal ability – ownership of mode of

transport and/or funds– Public access available?

• Opportunities – related to infrastructure and income– Few in a subsistence economy– Many in urban/industrialized economy

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Spatial Interaction and Information

• Barriers to Interaction – Distance – technology affects the parameters– Natural obstacles – rivers, mountains, etc. – important

role of technology

• Spatial Interaction & Innovation – centers of high interaction became culture hearths – ideas easily cross-pollinated there– Middle East—Eastern Mediterranean– Huang He Valley—Indus Valley– Meso-America & Altiplano– Europe since the Renaissance

MIGRATIONS

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Migrations are as old as humanity

• Early Humans migrated from Africa and spread to the other land masses of the world

• Native Americans migrated across the Bering land bridge.

• Africans migrated, against their will, to the new world

• The Bantu people migrated and populated from West Africa to South Africa

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Migration

• Push factors– Drive away

people

• Pull factors– Attract

people

• Migration chains

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Decision Process

•Spatial Search – process by which alternatives are evaluated– Influenced by information available

•Quality•Quantity

– Influenced by the utility assigned to places and the opportunities at those places•A cost/benefit analysis of sorts•Push & Pull factors can work both ways

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Migration of Peoples

• Prehistoric• Europe to the Americas• African diaspora• Europe to Asia & Oceania• Europe to Africa• Indian • Overseas Chinese

Prehistoric Human Migrations

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Crossing Beringia (land bridge)

• Most ancestors of Amerindians are believed to have come to the Americas via Beringia (the Bering Strait)

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Early Migrations – Aegean Sea

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Overseas Chinese Migration

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Early Pacific Migrations

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Barbarian invasions of Rome

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Gateway for a Major Migration

Slave Trade

European Migration -19th Century

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Europe after 1945

• From less to more prosperous coutnries

• “Guest workers”– Often men

• Worker’s remittances

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1950

1990

Change in African-American Population 1950-1990

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Different Scales of Migration

• Local – Urban to Suburban• State – Rural to Urban/Suburban• Regional – Rust Belt to Sun Belt• International – Country to Country

– Legal immigration– Illegal immigration

• WHATEVER THE SCALE, SOME TYPE OF PUSH AND/OR PULL FACTORS WERE INVOLVED IN THE DECISION.

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Reasons Americans Migrate

• Changes in life course – marriage, etc.• Change in career cycle – leaving college, job

transfer• Forced migrations – urban development,

construction projects, etc. such as airport expansion

• Neighborhood changes from which some choose to flee

• Changes associated with individual personality

• Historically part of our culture

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Barriers to Migration

• Physical – terrain, deserts, oceans

• Economic – cost increases with distance

• Lack of knowledge of opportunities

• Roots – ties to individuals and institutions in the original activity space

• Regulations in the receiving country (may not be too effective) and military resistance

• Psychological – perceptions of distance and difficulty

• Government regulations against emigration (former Soviet “Bloc”)

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Government Policy?

• In the light of September 11, 2001, there will be much debate about immigration policy. Most of us are glad the door was open to our ancestors; however, . . . . . . .

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Patterns of Migration

• Migration field – An area that sends or receives major migration flows – Channelized pattern of flow – persistent patterns

– Influence of past patterns of flow– Job opportunities & Economic influences– Ethnic affinity

– Return migration –shortly after migrating decide to return (in free conditions, 25%)• #1 false expectations & #2 adjustment problems

– Hierarchical migration• People moving up the levels of urban hierarchy

from small places to large ones

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Notable Migrations

• Ancestors of Amerindians• Phoenicians & Greeks around the Mediterranean• Norsemen (Normans)• Europeans to the “New World” and Australia• Russians eastward into Siberia• European Americans westward in USA• Afro-Americans from south to north & urban centers• Bantu migration to south and east in Africa• Chinese to southeast Asia & islands• Afrikaners to the high Veldt• U.S. “Rustbelt” to the “Sunbelt”• Mexicans to the U.S. southwest (illegals)

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Migration Today

• 2002 = 175 million living outside country of birth

• Characteristics– Many poor, uneducated, unskilled– Enterprising, working age looking for opportunity– Many also highly educated and skilled

• Refugees– 1951 Geneva convention– Asylum

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International Migration

• Increased apprehension in receiving countries – “Compassion fatigue”– Immigrants are scapegoats when unemployment rises

• Emigration– Importance of remittances

• Mexico = 3rd largest source of foreign exchange

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International Migration

• Europe as a destination– 16 million immigrants– 7-10 percent of host country population– Problems = religion, education– Contributions = entrepreneurs

• Migration of Asians– 4-5 million work abroad– Remittances important– Loss to home communities

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Migration to the US and Canada

• US– Largest migration flow to US– 10% US population foreign born– Immigration quotas restrict immigration– Implications

• Hispanics as proportion of US population

• Canada– 18.4 percent population foreign born– 94 percent live in metro areas

Source of immigrants to the USA

Foreign-born population in the USA by region of birth

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New Controversies

• Additional costs for public services?

• Importing poverty?

• Local costs of immigration– California

• “Melting pot” or “cultural mosaic”?

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Global Warming & Migration

• Climate change has spurred past migrations– Oakies of U.S. dust bowl era

– Huns in 5th century CE

– Ice ages

• The major effect of global warming is expected to be climate change; however, no one can accurately predict what changes will occur where and to what extent?

• Might this trigger new migration patterns?

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The Demographic Equation

• Demographic equation summarizes the contribution made to regional population change over time by the combination of natural change and net migration.– Population Relocation – immigration/emigration – two

sides of a movement– Immigration Impacts on the demographic equation –

increases as the population size of the areal unit studied decreases

– TP = Natural Increase + Immigration - emigration

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End of Chapter 5