Introduction to Complexity Science Engineered Complexity.

Introduction to Introduction to Complexity ScienceComplexity Science

Engineered ComplexityEngineered Complexity

Seth Bullock, 2006Seth Bullock, 2006

Engineered ComplexityEngineered Complexity


Today’s WorldToday’s World

Today’s world is massively interconnected at an unprecedented scale.Today’s world is massively interconnected at an unprecedented scale. Globalisation:Globalisation:

International tourism, trade, terrorism, etc.International tourism, trade, terrorism, etc. Underpinned by advances in ICT:Underpinned by advances in ICT:

Telecoms, internet, satellites, logistics, etc.Telecoms, internet, satellites, logistics, etc. … …further large-scale interconnection:further large-scale interconnection:

Digital NHS, UK Air-Traffic Control Centre, Worldwide University Network, Digital NHS, UK Air-Traffic Control Centre, Worldwide University Network, SETI@HomeSETI@Home

Complexity-related problems are rife.Complexity-related problems are rife.


The NetThe Net

The internet is growing at a fantastic rate.The internet is growing at a fantastic rate. 1 in 6 people are estimated to be online. This figure has doubled since early 2000 The net comprises 180+ million hosts.

Measuring growth of a huge, decentralised system such as the web is difficult.

Understanding its structure is even harder.

How can we map, model & manage the web?


Big ScienceBig Science

Genome analysis is generating massive Genome analysis is generating massive amounts of data at an increasing rate.amounts of data at an increasing rate.

In order to unlock the mysteries of health & disease, we will need to build new tools that

allow us to manage the huge amounts of complex data, picture it, and model it.

International collaboration amongst scientists will be increasingly important.

New & better infrastructures are needed.


Data OverloadData Overload

Satellites orbiting the earth and other remote Satellites orbiting the earth and other remote sensors are generating sensors are generating millionsmillions of images. of images. biodiversity,biodiversity, global warming, destructive global warming, destructive weather patterns, desertification, etcweather patterns, desertification, etc..

ATMs, point-of-sale machines, etc., ATMs, point-of-sale machines, etc., generate similar amounts of consumer data.generate similar amounts of consumer data.

How can we efficiently (automatically) How can we efficiently (automatically) analyse this data in order to extract useful analyse this data in order to extract useful information from it?information from it?


Collaborative EnterpriseCollaborative Enterprise

Firms increasingly collaborate in Firms increasingly collaborate in extended extended enterprisesenterprises that are very difficult to manage. that are very difficult to manage.

a complex a complex and dynamic and dynamic web ofweb of partners, partners, customers, suppliers and customers, suppliers and marketsmarkets..

Tracking, predicting, and influencing the Tracking, predicting, and influencing the changing inter-dependencies is hard:changing inter-dependencies is hard: products, product parts, part producers, products, product parts, part producers, product consumers, product markets, etc.product consumers, product markets, etc.


Health SystemsHealth Systems

The massive digital health record databases The massive digital health record databases being built in hospitals and clinics could:being built in hospitals and clinics could: help integrate patient treatmenthelp integrate patient treatment fuel comparative studiesfuel comparative studies

Complex issues…Complex issues… infra-structure – security & safetyinfra-structure – security & safety data protection & ownershipdata protection & ownership “ “relevance” in information retrievalrelevance” in information retrieval


IssuesIssues

For complex engineered systems, the same For complex engineered systems, the same issues arise repeatedly:issues arise repeatedly: design, control, managementdesign, control, management massive quantities of data…massive quantities of data… ……but poorly understood but poorly understood robustness, reliability, resiliencerobustness, reliability, resilience agility, flexibility, usability agility, flexibility, usability dynamic, changing, evolvingdynamic, changing, evolving


Complexity: Friend or Foe?Complexity: Friend or Foe?

For most engineers, complexity/chaos is a For most engineers, complexity/chaos is a property that needs to be extinguished.property that needs to be extinguished. e.g., Reynolds number: R=ρdv/η e.g., Reynolds number: R=ρdv/η

What is the Reynolds number for…What is the Reynolds number for… London Stock Exchange? McDonalds?London Stock Exchange? McDonalds?

If we knew, would we be able to “set it”?If we knew, would we be able to “set it”?

Complex systems may also Complex systems may also solvesolve problems: problems: swarm intelligence, the edge of chaos…swarm intelligence, the edge of chaos…


Living with ComplexityLiving with Complexity

If we are to exploit complexity in engineered If we are to exploit complexity in engineered systems, we will need a changed mindset:systems, we will need a changed mindset: strict hierarchystrict hierarchy accountabilityaccountability provabilityprovability ““fire-and-forget” mentalityfire-and-forget” mentality

Perhaps we are on the way…Perhaps we are on the way… ecosystems mindsets, life-cycles, webs…ecosystems mindsets, life-cycles, webs…


Grand Challenges?Grand Challenges?in vivo–in silico: the virtual worm…science for global ubiquitous computingmemories for life: managing information

over a human lifetimescalable ubiquitous computing systemsthe architecture of brain and minddependable systems evolutionjourneys in non-classical computation


More Generally…More Generally… progressing post-genomic science epidemiological modelling in a complex

dynamic world understanding the dynamics of markets,

economies, etc., in a globalised world building effective digital corporate systems facilitating collaboration in large systems managing large-scale design/construction achieving intelligent infrastructure

Introduction to Complexity Science Engineered Complexity.

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