Introduction C359 v12011

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Financial Econometrics

Course Introduction and Overview

Contents

1 Introduction and Outline of the Course 22 Course Objectives 33 Course Structure 44 The Course Author 85 Study Materials 96 Assessment 9References 18


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Centre for Financial and Management Studies 3

If financial econometrics is simply the application of econometrics to finance

issues, does this mean that econometric tools you have studied in previous

courses are the same as those used in this course? A simple answer to this

question isyes. Many of the concepts that you have encountered in the previ-

ous courses such as regression and hypothesis testing are highly relevant for

this course. In fact, all the topics introduced in this course will require thatyou have a deep understanding of these concepts. However, the emphasis and

the set of problems dealt with in finance issues are different from the eco-

nomic problems you have encountered in previous courses. To start with, the

nature of the data in finance issues is very different. Financial data are ob-

served at a much higher frequency (in some instances minute-by-minute

frequency). For macroeconomic data, we consider ourselves lucky if we are

able to observe data on a monthly basis. Furthermore, recorded financial data

such as stock market prices are those at which the transaction took place.

There is no possibility for measurement error. This is in contrast to macro-

economic data, which are revised regularly.

Also the properties of financial series differ. For instance, in the course

Econometric Analysis and Applications you spent a lot of time analysing

whether the series has a unit root and devising methods to estimate models

when the variables are integrated of order one. In financial econometrics,

these issues are not a major concern. Although we observe prices most of the

time, financial econometrics mainly deals with asset or portfolio returns.

Since returns are stationary, most of the methods used in this course also

apply to stationary series.

This may imply that models of financial returns are much easier to deal with.However, this is not the case. The analysis of financial data brings its own

challenges. As you will see from Unit 1, financial returns possess some

common properties that need to be incorporated in econometric models. For

instance, returns of assets such as stocks and bonds exhibit time-varying

volatility. This requires introducing new models and estimation techniques to

model time varying volatility. Not only that, financial returns can exhibit

asymmetry in volatility, which requires further modification of existing

models. Furthermore, financial data are not normally distributed. As you

have seen in previous courses, the assumption of normality has been central

for estimation and hypothesis testing. Unfortunately, even in finance applica-

tions, existing econometric techniques still find it difficult to deal with

models that assume non-normal distribution.

2 Course Objectives

After studying this course you will be able to

define and compute measures of financial returns interpret sample moments of financial returns discuss the stylised statistical properties of asset returns


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4 University of London

formulate models using matrix notation derive the OLS estimators using matrix algebra use matrix algebra to analyse sources of variation of risk explain the principles of maximum likelihood estimation derive the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss their properties use maximum likelihood estimation, and apply the hypothesis tests

available under maximum likelihood estimation

analyse and estimate models of autoregressive, moving average, andautoregressive-moving average models

forecast using AR, MA, and ARMA models apply the Box-Jenkins approach to time series models model and forecast volatility using autoregressive conditional

heteroscedastic (ARCH) models

estimate, interpret, and forecast with generalised autoregressiveconditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models extend GARCH models to analyse the asymmetric effect of shocks on

volatility

construct, estimate and interpret multivariate GARCH models test for spill-over of volatility between assets use vector autoregressive (VAR) models to analyse and interpret

interaction between financial variables

examine the impact of shocks on financial variables using impulseresponse analysis

undertake tests of hypotheses and Granger causality in a VARframework

formulate limited dependent variable models, including logit and probitmodels

estimate and interpret logit and probit models discuss models with multinomial linear dependent variables.

3 Course Structure

Unit 1 Statistical Properties of Financial Returns

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Calculation of Asset Returns

1.3 Stylised Facts about Financial Returns

1.4 Distribution of Asset Returns

1.5 Time Dependency

1.6 Linear Dependency across Asset Returns

Exercises | Answers to Exercises

Unit 2 Matrix Algebra, Regression and Applications in Finance2.1 Introduction


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2.2 Matrix Algebra: Some Basic Concepts and Applications

2.3 OLS Regression Using Matrix Algebra

2.4 Applications to Finance


Unit 3 Maximum Likelihood Estimation3.1 Introduction

3.2 The Maximum Likelihood Function: Some Basic Ideas and Examples

3.3 The Maximum Likelihood Method: Mathematical Derivation

3.4 The Information Matrix

3.5 Usefulness and Limitations of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator

3.6 Hypothesis Testing


Unit 4 Univariate Time Series and Applications to Finance

4.1 Introduction4.2 The Lag Operator

4.3 Some Key Concepts

4.4 Wolds Decomposition Theory (Optional section)

4.5 Properties of AR Processes

4.6 Properties of Moving Average Processes

4.7 Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Processes

4.8 The Box-Jenkins Approach

4.9 Example: A Model of Stock Returns

4.10 Conclusions


Unit 5 Modelling Volatility Conditional Heteroscedastic Models

5.1 Introduction

5.2 ARCH Models

5.3 GARCH Models

5.4 Estimation of GARCH Models

5.5 Forecasting with GARCH Model

5.6 Asymmetric GARCH Models

5.7 The GARCH-in-Mean Model

5.8 Conclusions

Exercises

Unit 6 Modelling Volatility and Correlations Multivariate GARCH Models

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Multivariate GARCH Models

6.3 The VECH Model

6.4 The Diagonal VECH Model

6.5 The BEKK Model

6.6 The Constant Correlation Model

6.7 The Dynamic Correlation Model

6.8 Estimation of a Multivariate Model


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Unit 7 Vector Autoregressive Models

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Vector Autoregressive Models

7.3 Issues in VAR

7.4 Hypothesis Testing in VAR

7.5 Example: Money Supply, Inflation and Interest Rate


Unit 8 Limited Dependent Variable Models

8.1 Introduction

8.2 The Linear Probability Model

8.3 The Logit Model

8.4 The Probit Model

8.5 Estimation using Maximum Likelihood

8.6 Goodness of Fit Measures

8.7 Example: Dividends, Growth and Profits

8.8 Multinomial Linear Dependent Variables

8.9 Ordered Response Linear Dependent Variable Models (optional section)


The objective of the course is to extend your knowledge and equip you with

methods and techniques that allow you to analyse finance-related issues. This

course starts by illustrating how to measure financial returns, the main vari-

able that we try to model in financial applications. There are various

definitions of returns, and Unit 1 illustrates how to compute the various types

of returns. After defining financial returns, Unit 1 presents some stylisedfacts about the properties of financial returns. These include volatility clus-

tering, asymmetric volatility and non-normality. Unit 1 then introduces

various measures of moments of the distribution of financial returns, and how

these can be computed for samples of financial returns. The material covered

in this unit sets the scene for the rest of the course and thus it is important

that you make yourself familiar with these concepts.

Unit 2 provides a brief introduction to the main principles of matrix

algebra. In your previous coursesEconometric Principles and Data Analysis

andEconometric Analysis and Applications, you developed the basic regres-

sion concepts and statistical tools without referring to matrix algebra. That

was essential for you to grasp some basic concepts involved in regression

analysis. However, in most theoretical and practical applications, the

researcher often deals with multivariate relations. As you will discover

in this unit, the simplest way to tackle these multivariate relations is to

switch to matrix notation. Matrix algebra eliminates the need to use summa-

tion signs and subscripts and helps present the results in a simple way. In

some of the units of this course, it will be very difficult to present the proofs

and results without using matrix notation. Although matrix notation simpli-

fies the presentation of the results, the fact remains that you may be learninga new language. Learning a new language can be exciting but it is also chal-

lenging. To help you to understand and apply matrix algebra, we use matrix


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algebra in some financial applications, namely the multi-factor models and

portfolio theory.

Unit 3 provides a brief review of the maximum likelihood estimation method.

In all the previous econometrics courses you have studied, the least squares

(LS) method was used to derive the estimates of the models parameters andfor hypothesis testing. Least Squares is just one of many estimation tech-

niques available for econometricians. In Units 4, 5, 6 and 8 of this course,

you will encounter models such as GARCH, ARMA and binary choice mod-

els that cant be estimated by least squares. Instead, econometricians rely on

maximum likelihood estimation, which is a flexible technique, more general

than OLS and, under fairly general conditions, yields consistent and efficient

estimates of the parameters. However, like any estimation technique, maxi-

mum likelihood is based on a certain underlying philosophy and certain

principles. In Unit 3, you will be introduced to these principles and how these

can be applied to derive estimates of the parameters and test hypothesesabout the estimated parameters. This is one of the most challenging units, but

hopefully, by using various examples, you will be able to gain a deep under-

standing of how the estimation method works, and you will be able to

identify its strengths and weaknesses.

Unit 4 presents univariate time series models. In these types of models, a

series is modelled in terms of its own past values and some disturbance terms

(also known as shocks). Univariate time series models were introduced in the

courseEconometric Analysis and Applications. These models are different

from the structural models you have studied in other courses, in the sense that

these models are atheoretical that is, they are not based on any underlyingtheoretical frameworks but are data driven. These models are the first build-

ing blocks for estimating financial returns and help illustrate some of the key

properties of financial returns. The aim of this unit is to introduce these mod-

els, such as the autoregressive model (AR), the moving average model (MA),

and a combination of these two (ARMA models).

Unit 5 presents some of the econometric methods used for modelling and

forecasting volatility of asset returns. Volatility models have attracted the

attention of academics and practitioners, and are widely used in many areas

of finance, including models of Value-at-Risk, option pricing, and portfolioallocation. One of the stylised facts about asset returns is that the variance of

the error terms is not equal at every point in time, and hence the error terms

are said to suffer from heteroscedasticity. Thus, in modelling financial re-

turns, one should consider approaches that relax the assumption of

homoscedasticity. ARCH and GARCH models do exactly that. They relax

the assumption of constant variance and exploit the heteroscedasticity feature

to model the variance of returns over time. As you will study in this unit,

ARCH models are also flexible enough to allow us to incorporate asymmetry

in the volatility of financial asset returns. Please note that in this course we

refer to homoscedasticity and heteroscedasticity; inEviews, and elsewhere,you will also see the spellings homoskedasticity and heteroskedasticity.


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Unit 6 extends the GARCH model from the univariate to the multivariate

setting. This proves to be an important extension as it allows researchers and

financial analysts to model time-varying conditional covariance and correla-

tion between the returns of various financial assets. This new technique

opened the way for many financial applications such as dynamic asset pricing

models, portfolio selection, dynamic hedging, value-at-risk, and volatilitytransmission between assets and markets. Multivariate GARCH models also

help researchers to model some of the features of asset returns, such as corre-

lation clustering.

Unit 7 presents the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, which can be

thought of as generalisations to the univariate time series models. VAR mod-

els represent an improvement over univariate time series models because

they allow variables to be modelled not only in terms of their own lags and

their own shocks, but also in terms of the lags of other variables. This pro-

vides greater flexibility and allows us to examine the dynamic interactionsbetween a set of variables. VAR models have become very popular in the

econometrics literature and are widely used in the areas of macroeconomics

and finance. The tools which have developed around VAR, such as impulse

response analysis, Granger causality and variance decompositions (all dis-

cussed in this unit) have become central to understanding the interaction

among variables. VAR models have also been used extensively for forecast-

ing purposes, where these models have exhibited a better performance than

structural models, especially in out-of-sample forecasting.

Unit 8 deals with models in which the dependent variable i.e. the variable

that needs to be explained by a set of determinants, is in fact a dummy vari-able. There are many cases where these models can be useful. For instance,

financial analysts may be interested as to why some firms list on the stock

market while others dont; why some firms issue dividends while others

dont; and why some firms decide to raise external finance while others

dont. In all these examples, what we observe is whether a firm lists or not,

issues dividends or not, or raises external finance or not. Thus, the relevant

dependent variable is a dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if the event

occurs, and zero if the event does not occur. Such models, known as limited

dependent variable models, raise a set of estimation issues that are different

from the ones you have encountered so far. The purpose of this unit is to

introduce you to limited dependent models and discuss how these models can

be applied to finance issues.

4 The Course Author

Bassam Fattouh graduated in Economics from the American University of

Beirut in 1995. Following this, he obtained his Masters degree and PhD from

the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, in 1999.

He is a Reader in Finance and Management and academic director for theMSc in International Management for the Middle East and North Africa at


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the Department for Financial and Management Studies, SOAS. He is also

currently Senior Research Fellow and Director of the Oil and Middle East

Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies at the University of

Oxford. He has published in leading economic journals, including theJour-

nalof Development Economics, Economics Letters, Economic Inquiry,

Macroeconomic Dynamics andEmpirical Economics. His research interestsare mainly in the areas of finance and growth, capital structure and applied

non-linear econometric modelling, as well as oil pricing systems.

5 Study Materials

This course mainly uses one textbook:

Chris Brooks (2008)Introductory Econometrics for Finance.

This textbook has been chosen for a number of reasons. It is extremely clear,contains a large number of examples and covers a lot of ground. Further-

more, it is a useful textbook to refresh your memory of some basic concepts

you have studied in previous courses (especially Chapters 2, 3 and 4 of the

textbook). Equally important, the textbook uses theEviews package, which is

quite powerful while at the same time fairly easy to use. Finally, the textbook

has a very useful companion website with rich resources for students includ-

ing ,solutions to end of chapterquestions,Eviews data and workfiles, and links to useful websites. The link

for this companion website can be found at:

http://www.cambridge.org/features/economics/brooks/student.html

Although the textbook covers a lot of subject areas, in some units you may

need to rely more heavily on the course notes and some suggested readings.

The units in the course will closely follow the presentation in the textbook.

However, for some of the units, this is not feasible either because the chapter

does not cover the topic at all, or covers it in a superficial way. In such cases,

you may find that the course notes are more demanding than the material

presented in the textbook, because the course notes analyse the issues using

mathematics (though at a very basic level). This is necessary to gain a deeper

understanding of the issues being considered.

Throughout this course, it is essential that you do all the readings and solve

all the exercises. In this course, each idea builds on the previous ones in a

logical fashion, and it is important that each idea is clear to you before you

move on. You should therefore take special care not to fall behind with your

schedule of studies.

6 Assessment

Your performance on each course is assessed through two writtenassignments and one examination. The assignments are written after


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week four and eight of the course session and the examination is written

at a local examination centre in October.

The assignment questions contain fairly detailed guidance about what is

required. All assignment answers are limited to 2,500 words and are marked

using marking guidelines. When you receive your grade it is accompanied bycomments on your paper, including advice about how you might improve,

and any clarifications about matters you may not have understood. These

comments are designed to help you master the subject and to improve your

skills as you progress through your programme.

The written examinations are unseen (you will only see the paper in the

exam centre) and written by hand, over a three hour period. We advise that

you practice writing exams in these conditions as part of you examination

preparation, as it is not something you would normally do.

You are not allowed to take in books or notes to the exam room. This means

that you need to revise thoroughly in preparation for each exam. This is

especially important if you have completed the course in the early part of the

year, or in a previous year.

Preparing for assignments and exams

There is good advice on preparing for assignments and exams and writing

them in Sections 8.2 and 8.3 ofStudying at a Distanceby Talbot. We rec-

ommend that you follow this advice.

The examinations you will sit are designed to evaluate your knowledge and

skills in the subjects you have studied: they are not designed to trick you. Ifyou have studied the course thoroughly, you will pass the exam.

Understanding assessment questions

Examination and assignment questions are set to test different knowledge and

skills. Sometimes a question will contain more than one part, each part test-

ing a different aspect of your skills and knowledge. You need to spot the key

words to know what is being asked of you. Here we categorise the types of

things that are asked for in assignments and exams, and the words used. The

examples are from CeFiMS exam papers and assignment questions.

Definitions

Some questions mainly require you to show that you have learned some

concepts, by setting out their precise meaning. Such questions are likely to be

preliminary and be supplemented by more analytical questions. Generally

Pass marks are awarded if the answer only contains definitions.

They will contain such words as:

Describe Define Examine Distinguish between


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Compare Contrast Write notes on Outline What is meant by List

Reasoning

Other questions are designed to test your reasoning, by explaining cause and

effect. Convincing explanations generally carry additional marks to basic

definitions. These will include words such as:

Interpret Explain What conditions influence What are the consequences of What are the implications of

Judgment

Others ask you to make a judgment, perhaps of a policy or of a course of

action. They will include words like:

Evaluate Critically examine Assess Do you agree that To what extent does

Calculation

Sometimes, you are asked to make a calculation, using a specified technique,

where the question begins:

Use indifference curve analysis to Using any economic model you know Calculate the standard deviation Test whether

It is most likely that questions that ask you to make a calculation will also ask

for an application of the result, or an interpretation.

Critique

In many cases the question will include the word critically. This means that

you are expected to look at the question from at least two points of view,

offering a critique of each view and your judgment. You are expected to be

critical of what you have read.The questions may begin


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Critically analyse Critically consider Critically assess Critically discuss the argument that

Examine by argument

Questions that begin with discuss are similar they ask you to examine by

argument, to debate and give reasons for and against a variety of options, for

example

Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of Discuss this statement Discuss the view that Discuss the arguments and debates concerning

The grading schemeDetails of the general definitions of what is expected in order to obtain a

particular grade are shown below. Remember: examiners will take account of

the fact that examination conditions are less conducive to polished work than

the conditions in which you write your assignments. These criteria are used

in grading all assignments and examinations. Note that as the criteria of each

grade rises, it accumulates the elements of the grade below. Assignments

awarded better marks will therefore have become comprehensive in both

their depth of core skills and advanced skills.

70% and above: Distinction as for the (6069%) below plus:

shows clear evidence of wide and relevant reading and an engagementwith the conceptual issues

develops a sophisticated and intelligent argument shows a rigorous use and a sophisticated understanding of relevant

source materials, balancing appropriately between factual detail and

key theoretical issues. Materials are evaluated directly and theirassumptions and arguments challenged and/or appraised

shows original thinking and a willingness to take risks.60-69%: Merit as for the (5059%) below plus:

shows strong evidence of critical insight and critical thinking shows a detailed understanding of the major factual and/or theoretical

issues and directly engages with the relevant literature on the topic

develops a focussed and clear argument and articulates clearly andconvincingly a sustained train of logical thought

shows clear evidence of planning and appropriate choice of sources andmethodology.

5059%: Pass below Merit (50% = pass mark)

shows a reasonable understanding of the major factual and/ortheoretical issues involved


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shows evidence of planning and selection from appropriate sources, demonstrates some knowledge of the literature the text shows, in places, examples of a clear train of thought or

argument

the text is introduced and concludes appropriately.4549%: Marginal Failure

shows some awareness and understanding of the factual or theoreticalissues, but with little development

misunderstandings are evident shows some evidence of planning, although irrelevant/unrelated

material or arguments are included.

044%: Clear Failure

fails to answer the question or to develop an argument that relates tothe question set

does not engage with the relevant literature or demonstrate aknowledge of the key issues

contains clear conceptual or factual errors or misunderstandings.[approved by Faculty Learning and Teaching Committee November 2006]

Specimen exam paper

Your final examination will be very similar to the Specimen Exam Paper that

follows . It will have the same structure and style and the range of question

will be comparable.CeFiMS does not provide past papers or model answers to papers. Our

courses are continuously updated and past papers will not be a reliable guide

to current and future examinations. The specimen exam paper is designed to

be relevant to reflect the exam that will be set on the current edition of the

course.

Further information

The OSC will have documentation and information on each years

examination registration and administration process. If you still have ques-

tions, both academics and administrators are available to answer queries.

The Regulations are also available at ,

setting out the rules by which exams are governed.


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UNIVERSITY OF LONDON

Centre for Financial and Management Studies

MSc Examination

for External Students 91 DFMC359

FINANCE


Specimen Examination

This is a specimen examination paper designed to show you the type of examina-tion you will have at the end of the year forFinancial Econometrics. The

number of questions and the structure of the examination will be the same but

the wording and the requirements of each question will be different. Best wishes

for success in your final examination.

The examination must be completed in THREE hours.

AnswerTHREE questions. The examiners give equal weight to each ques-

tion; therefore, you are advised to distribute your time approximately equally

between three questions.

Do not remove this paper from the examination room.

It must be attached to your answer book at the end of the examination.

University of London, 2010 PLEASE TURN OVER


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91 DFMC359 Financial Econometrics

Answer THREE questions.

1 Answer all parts of the question.

Consider the following GARCH(1,1) model

where is a daily stock return series.

a) Explain carefully how you would estimate this model.

b) Interpret the estimated coefficients of the model.

c) Explain the difference between the conditional variance and

the unconditional variance. Calculate the unconditional vari-

ance for the model. Under what conditions will unconditionalvariance be stationary?

d) Describe two extensions to the original GARCH model.

What additional characteristics of financial data might they

able to capture?


Suppose that you are interested in modelling the correlation be-

tween the returns of the British Airways stock and the returns on

crude oil.

a) Write down a constant correlation problem for this model.

b) Explain carefully how you would estimate the above model.

c) Discuss the values of the coefficients estimates that you

would expect.

d) Discuss two alternative approaches to correlation modelling.

What are the strengths and weaknesses of multivariate

GARCH model compared to the alternatives you propose?


a) Explain why the linear model is inadequate as a specificationfor the limited dependent variable estimation.

b) How does the logit model overcome the problem in

part (a)?

c) Describe the intuition behind the maximum likelihood esti-

mation technique used for limited dependent variable model.

d) How can we measure whether a logit model that has been es-

timated fits the data well or not?


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a) Explain the underlying philosophy behind maximum likeli-

hood estimation.

b) OLS and maximum likelihood are used to estimate the pa-

rameters of a standard linear regression model. Will they

give the same estimate? Explain your answer.

c) Discuss the main advantages and limitations of the maximum

likelihood method.

d) Describe one hypothesis testing procedure that is available

under the maximum likelihood estimation.


a) Discuss three stylised features of financial data.

b) Can any of these features be modelled using linear time se-ries models? Explain your answer.

c) Explain the moments of the random variable. How can you

estimate these in empirical applications?

d) Explain carefully the Bera-Jarque test, stating clearly the null

and alternative hypothesis. In case of financial data, do you

expect the Bera-Jarque test to accept or reject the null? Ex-

plain your answer.


Consider the following three models, which a researcher suggests

might be a reasonable model of stock market prices.

yt= y

t1+ u

t(1)

yt= 0.5y

t1+ u

t(2)

yt= 0.8 u

t1+ u

t(3)

a) What classes of models are these examples of?

b) What would the autocorrelation function for each of these

processes look like? (Dont calculate the acf; simply considerthe shape.)

c) Describe the steps that Box and Jenkins suggested should be

involved in constructing the above models?

d) What procedure may be used to estimate the parameter in

equation 3? Explain how such a procedure works and why

OLS is no appropriate.


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a) Explain why VAR models have become popular for applica-

tion in economics and finance, relative to structural models

derived from some underlying theory.

b) Define carefully the following terms

i structural VAR model

ii standard VAR model.

c) Describe and evaluate two methods for determining the ap-

propriate lag lengths in VARs.

d) Explain carefully the Granger Causality test in a multivariate

framework.


Consider the following model where the dependent variable (say

stock returns) is assumed to be dependent on kexplanatory vari-

ables such that

a) Write the above model in matrix form.

b) Estimate the parameters of the model in part (a) using themethod of least squares.

c) What is mean by multifactor models? How are these models

used in finance?

d) Consider a two factor model such that

y = + X + u where is the vector of returns, is the vector of ones andX

is the matrix of the factors. Calculate the expected value and

the variance of returns. Comment on the results.

[END OF EXAMINATION]


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U i it f L d

References

Brooks C (2008)Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Second Edition,

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Fan J (2004) An introduction to financial econometrics, Department of

Operation Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton, NJ: Princeton

University, November.

Introduction C359 v12011

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