Introduction Background Solutions: Environmental and Engineering Intermission Solutions: Social and...
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Transcript of Introduction Background Solutions: Environmental and Engineering Intermission Solutions: Social and...
Introduction
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental and Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Background
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental
and
Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and
Political
Conclusion
Geography of New Orleans
Hurricane Katrina
Environmental Issues
Alternative Plans
100 Year Plan
New Orleans Geography
Lake Pontchartrain (north) Lake Borgne (east) Mississippi River (through the
city) Gulf of Mexico (south) Wetlands (southeast)
Environmental Concerns
Elevation– from 2 m above to 5 m below sea level
Mississippi River bed is rising Subsidence– 5-8 mm per year Reduction of Wetlands– 75 sq. km per year Sea Level Rise– 11 cm to 77 cm in 100
years Global Warming
Hurricane Katrina
Made landfall as a Category 3 in southeastern Louisiana
Sustained winds of 125 mph Projected storm surge of 28 ft On August 28th, Mayor Ray Nagin enacted
the first mandatory evacuation plan Superdome housed 26,000 people Storm surge caused several levee breaches
and flooded city Overall death toll: 1,800
Government Response
Response was slow and inefficient
FEMA mobilized 1000 Homeland Security workers
Firefighters and ambulance crews not allowed in immediately
Federal government lacked sufficient devastation information
Problems with looting
Superdome became a humanitarian crisis
Search and rescue efforts were uncoordinated
Increasing Hurricane Intensity
Hurricane Betsy - 1965 81 casualties $1.4 billion
Hurricane Camille - 1969 335 casualties $11 billion
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita - 2005 2,000 casualties $105 billion
Looking 100 Years Into The Future
The Possibilities
&
The Final Proposal
The Possibilities
Rebuild and Improve Abandon North Shore Plan The Final Proposal
Rebuild and Improve
Rebuild better than pre-Katrina High cost High risk Preserves unique New Orleans
culture Maintains economy
Abandon
Deemed too risky to live in Organized relocation of citizens Low cost Low risk
The North Shore
Preserve unique portions Historical Economic functions
Relocate residents to St. Tammany Parish
Make New Orleans a commuter city High risk on North Shore also Lack of available land
The Final Proposal
Downsize to historical sector Move major port functions
Port of South Louisiana Baton Rouge
New hurricane and flood protection system
Citizens’ Relocation Committee (CRC) Use river to develop wetlands
The Final Proposal
Incorporates the best from the other possibilities Preserves historical sector Provides for relocation of port economy CRC provides for safety of suburban
residents Smaller region to protect
Lower long-term costLower risk
Solutions: Environmental and Engineering
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental
and
Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and
Political
Conclusion
Sea Level Rise
Wetlands
Rivers
Flood Protection System
Global Warming
Increase in temperature Caused by emission of
greenhouse gases Affect on sea level rise:
Thermal Expansion Melting glaciers, ice caps Changes to hydraulic cycle
Sea Level Rise
Range: 10 cm to 100 cm (IPCC Third Assessment Report)
Median: 48 cm Models used: CCCma, GFDL,
Hadley-CM3, MPI
Uncertainty of Sea Level Rise
Do not capture multiple climate effects
Uncertainty in heat uptake by deep ocean
Timescales lead to inaction in policy
Kyoto Protocol
Subsidence
Types of: Endogenic – caused by human activities Exogenic – caused by natural processes
Causes: Groundwater withdrawal Petroleum extraction Tectonic motion
Cost of Sea Level Rise
$20 - 150 billion if sea levels rise 100 cm (Pugh, 2004)
$370 million dry land damages $893 million for wetlands damage $200 - 475 billion for coastal stabilization $57 - 174 million in transient costs 1500 damaged homes yearly
(McCarthy, 2001)
Louisiana’s Wetlands: Functions
Commercial importance Produces 1/4 of the nation's oil and
natural gas Produces 1/3 of the nation’s
fisheries’ landings Hosts 2nd largest wildlife habitat in the
U.S. Protective importance
Protection against storm surges Every 3-4 linear miles of healthy
wetlands reduces storm surge by 1 foot
Long Term
Reduce and compensate for current rate of loss of 75 square kilometers per year
Prepare for sea level rise Maintain barrier islands Improve knowledge of ecosystem
dynamics and restoration technology
Wetlands Problems and Solutions
Draining and Filling Zoning laws
Canals and Channels Use fewer canals Prevent further erosion from canals
Erosion Barrier Islands Use of dredged sediments Revegetation River diversions
Draining and Filling
Proposed Legislation: Prohibit draining and filling of
ecologically important wetlands 100 foot buffer between wetlands
and developed areas Best management techniques for
drilling and farming
Canals
Small Scale Canal Impact Canal dredging Human-altered hydrology and
substrate collapse Large Scale Canal Impact
Deep navigation canals Pipelines
8,000 miles of pipelines across coastal Louisiana
Barrier Islands
Katrina’s destruction of Chandeleur barrier islands (approximately 50% loss)
Present-day: slow rate of recovery Immediately: dredging
Sand deposits of previous delta lobes (i.e. Ship Shoal)
Dredged Sediments-Marsh
Sediment pumped into or placed on shallow water areas
Increases elevation of marshes or creates new marsh
Mixed success May become more important in
the context of increased sea level
Revegetation
Major plant death Salt water intrusion Lack of nutrients
Stabilization of soil Species must be well-adapted to
predicted conditions Spartina can tolerate moderate salinity
River Distributaries
Dredged sediments and revegetation are inefficient to continue long term
Sediment and nutrient delivery system Raise elevation Counteract subsidence Revive ecosystems to reduce erosion
Distributaries
Two distributaries Each divert up to 1/5 of normal
river discharge Floodgate at entry point to
control water level Open wider during floods Open less during low water
Armored banks
Distributaries
EAST: Breton Sound Fill in MRGO until Violet Canal Violet Canal and MRGO form
distributary WEST: Barataria Bay
Wilkinson Canal forms distributary Establish Barataria Waterway as main
canal for Lafayette oil and gas field
Cutoff
Southern cutoff 2 crevasses between cutoff and
Buras – maintain navigation, not flood control
No levees below Buras – navigation channel will not be maintained
Entry Point: Buras
Buras to replace Head of Passes as main entry point to deep draft channel
Two navigation canals will allow entry from east and west
Bird-foot delta abandoned; nothing south of Buras unless built on a deepwater platform
Problem: Riverbed Rise
Riverbed rise Sediment builds up on riverbed
because it cannot be distributed on floodplain
Increasing stress on Old River Control Structure Maintains 70% discharge through
current Mississippi River channel
Dredging
River currently being dredged to maintain navigation channel
Very costly but feasible because of economic importance of river
Wing Dams
Wing dams: dikes that extend from a river’s banks while allowing water to flow unhindered through the middle of the channel
Water behind dams will slow and drop sediment, building up sediment behind the dam
River channel will narrow and deepen
Wing Dams, cont.
Increased current velocity and pressure on bed will increase erosion, promote self-scouring process to bring bed level closer to sea level
River banks must be armored, so that increased erosion occurs on the bottom and not the sides
New river entry point at Buras shortens horizontal distance, allowing erosion to steepen profile
New River Specifications
Below Baton Rouge maintain 500 ft wide main channel, wide enough to accommodate riverboat traffic
Between Port of South Louisiana and Wilkinson Canal maintain 650 ft wide main channel, to accommodate the traffic at Port of New Orleans, especially boats turning around
Old River
Erosion of bed closer to sea level will decrease height difference between Atchafalaya and Mississippi beds at Old River, currently 12-14 ft
Material will be dredged from behind Old River to match changing elevation of Mississippi River bed
Increases capacity and use of existing structure for flood control
Flood Protection System Plans
Filling in the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet
Floodgates and double pumps on the 17th Street, Orleans Avenue, and London Avenue Canal Levees
Levee Reconstruction
Monitoring and Maintenance
Filling-In the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet
Storm surge coming up outlet was intensified, causing levees to be breached
Filling-in protects against funnel effect
Commercial/industrial impact
Floodgates and Double Pumps
Floodgates stop water from coming into the city through the canals
Gates close when storm surge threatens
Governance by NOAA Increase and redesign pump
system throughout city
Levee and Floodwall Reconstruction
Patchwork system Levees poorly monitored Subsidence I-walls protecting Lower Ninth Ward New Orleans East levees overtopped and
eroded I-walls were not able to handle pressure
from storm surges Scouring and seepage caused some I-
walls to fail Foundations were poor
Solutions
Rebuild to withstand Category 5 hurricane: Replace I-walls with T-walls Selective levee armoring Rolled clay levees Replace poor foundations with
compacted soil New levees from Intracoastal Waterway
to Jefferson West Levee System
Monitoring and Maintenance
Levee Governance Board Yearly levee inventory Differential Global Positioning
System to monitor subsidence Role of Army Corps
Timeline
Nov 2006
Sept 2007
2010
Temporary floodgates on canals.220 miles of levee repaired.
Floodwalls and levees raised to approved heights and engineering errors fixed.
Flood Protection System complete.
Intermission
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental and Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Absorbing the Information
The 100 Year Plan Environmental and
Engineering Issues Sea level rise and subsidence Wetlands Mississippi River Flood Protection System
Solutions: Social and Political
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental
and
Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and
Political
Conclusion
Downsizing/Zoning
Ports/Jobs/Relocation
Social/Cultural
Insurance/Building Codes
Evacuation
Costs
Committee for Continued
Monitoring
Downsizing By District
What Do We Do Now? Risk of subsidence, sea level rise,
increased storm surge Returned population- 190,000;
43% of the 2004 population of 440,000
Residents rebuilding Repair Hurricane Protection
Systems- $300 million spent by Army Corps of Engineers
Lakeview and Gentilly
Safe in the short term Repaired Hurricane Protection Systems:
$170 million spent by Army Corps of Engineers
Plans for another $120 million in future projects
Necessary for general protection of city
Will be zoned over 50 years
50 Year Zoning Plan
Time Zoning Law
Immediate No new house construction
5 years No household additions
10 years No immigration
Criteria for Clearing NeighborhoodsTime Occupancy
Immediate
<5%
30 years <10%
35 years <15%
40 years <20%
45 years <25%
50 years All evacuated from selected neighborhoods
New Orleans East, Venetian Isles, Village de L’Est
Severe damage and high subsidence rates Would not be safe if another, similar
hurricane hit Significant additional costs to make these
areas safe $67.5 million spent $232.5 million planned
Eminent domain, “full and just” compensation
Lower Ninth Ward
Considerable damage: 82% of homes had at least $5,200 in damages
Subsidence rate of 5 mm/year Average elevation 0.9 meters above
sea level Returned population of 5% Suitable for rebuilding Remaining districts in Orleans Parish
will be preserved
Plaquemines
57 % of homes sustained greater than $5200 in damage
13 mm per year subsidence rate Downriver from Pointe a la Hache
immediate evacuation Between Wilkinson Canal and
Pointe a la Hache—50 Year Zoning Plan
Other Uses for Land
Research Area Wetlands Alternate Energy Sources Wildlife Reserve
Port Functions
Port of South Louisiana will take over many of the roles of the Port of New Orleans
Shift shipping and trading business out while maintaining tourism
Provide monetary incentives for businesses to relocate to Port of South Louisiana
Jobs
We plan to move businesses to Baton Rouge
- Preparing Baton Rouge- Offering incentives for
businesses to relocate Most jobs still in New Orleans
will be related to tourism
Relocating People
People will relocate- Zoning and eminent domain
in some neighborhoods- Following the jobs to other
cities Offer support through the
Citizens’ Relocation Committee (CRC) and monetary aid
Plans for Preservation Programs
Goal: promote cultural awareness Festivals, museums, libraries, and
memorials Example: New Orleans Jazz and Heritage
Festival New Orleans History Month Preserve a city’s culture while moving on
to a safer, more efficient municipality in a new location
Social Considerations
Completion of clean-up Reopening of funeral homes Beautification of cemeteries Propagation of neighborhood
festivals Hurricane and Flood Memorial
Education
Vocational training Non-academic activities for grade
school students Normalize transportation and hours New curriculum:
Local cultural and political history Diversity acceptance Hurricane and flood preparedness Conservation and environmentally sound
living
Insurance Policy
Louisiana Department of Insurance clarify insurance ambiguities expansion of agent-homeowner
services Mandatory National Flood
Insurance Program avoid “natural disaster syndrome”
Building Codes and Green Architecture
First Floor Plan Minimizes flood damage $5000 contents coverage limit
Wind Damage Recommendations Protection of building openings Improved roof-sheathing attachment Improved roof-wall connections Secondary waterproofing to roof joints
Green Architecture
Government-Subsidized Housing
Single family homes and low-rise apartments
Follow building codes and green architecture guidelines
Integration of mixed income communities
Evacuation/Storm Refuge
Evacuation Routes Major evacuation routes:
I-10 to Baton Rouge/Houston I-55 I-59 to northern Mississippi
Contraflow changes inbound to outbound
Car Access and Remnant Population Problem
Superdome housed 26,000 people 9% of population has no car access Solution:
Public bus transportation to common evacuation destinations
Set up additional local shelters Staff and supply Superdome with
a maximum capacity
Baton Rouge Overpopulation Problem
Baton Rouge's population nearly doubled with incoming evacuees
Solution: Allow only up to 50-100,000 refugees into
city LSU as temporary shelter Develop Houston as evacuation
destination by designating Astrodome as a shelter and Astrodome/Reliant Center Complex as a health clinic
Current Plan: Phase System
Phase Location Time Before Landfall (hrs.)
Strength of Hurricane
1 South of Intracoastal Waterway
50 Category 1 or higher
2 Between Intracoastal Waterway and Mississippi River
40 Category 2 or higher
3 Between Mississippi River and I-12
30 Slow-moving Category 3 or higher
Additions
Phase 3 begins contraflow During Phase 1, begin pre-
supplying shelters in New Orleans with food, water, and first-aid kits
Contract private companies to do so and to stock excess emergency supplies such as flashlights and batteries throughout hurricane season.
Evacuation Cooperation
20-30% of New Orleans population failed to evacuate
Solution: Remind public of hurricane dangers;
increase evacuation cooperation Hurricane Awareness Week Continue to advertise/distribute info
pertaining to evacuation routes, home security, bus transport stops
Costs of Short-Term Plan
Wetland Restoration $815,558,000
Levee Repair & Construction
$15,125,000,000
Clean-Up and Recycling
$2,500,000
Acquisition of Land $6,480,400,000
City Planning and Insurance
$1,401,345
Mississippi River $248,855,000
TOTAL
$22,672,313,000 + $500,370 per
government subsidized and insured house
Costs of Long-Term Plan
Wetland Restoration $24,435,000,000
Levee Repair & Maintenance
$15,000,000,000
Phasing Out of People and Industry
$40,000,000,000
Mississippi River Monitoring and
Maintenance$3,500,000,000
TOTAL $82,935,000,000
Committee for Continued Monitoring
Experts and professionals from many different fields
Provides flexibility to our proposal
Keeping New Orleans safe in the future
Conclusion
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental and
Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Conclusion
A plan of integration A downsized, sustainable city A New Orleans for the future
Credits
We would like to thank Sam Bowring, Rafael Bras, Ari Epstein, Katrina Cornell, our Undergraduate Teaching Fellows, our Alumni Mentors, Debra Aczel, Maria Shkolnik, Ruth Weinrib, and the librarians.
We would also like to thank the panelists.
Mission 2010: New Orleans