Slide 1

Introduction Research World International, an independent global research company commissioned this opinion poll between 25th September -3rd October 2012 with the aim of assessing the opinions of the FDC delegates about the on going party primaries to chose the leader of FDC.Research World International designed and implemented a Public Opinion Telephonic Survey to assess the opinions and drivers of choice for the FDC leadershipThe total sample was 500 but we managed to reach 445 delegates who were talked to and their opinion sought. The report is given with a margin of error of +2-2

22Introduction ContdThe population investigatedThe population (universe) investigated in this study was made up of all Ugandan persons who are FDC delegates both in rural and urban areas. For the purpose of sample design, FDC delegates register 2010 was used as the basis for estimating population distribution across regions. Uganda has four regions namely Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Regions. The sample was therefore distributed proportionate to the delegate samples in each region. You will also find that we did sub-regional analysis. See sampling below.3Study objectivesThis opinion poll had five main objectives, namely:To get the delegates opinion on who they consider to be a most suited person to lead FDC. Measuring the drivers of choice among the delegatesTo Understand issues that are shaping the campaign

4Sampling and research MethodsThe sample is proportionate to the population of the delegates in each regionWe used a telephonic method where the respondents were called while recording the responses on the a questionnaire We had 5 interviewers and the interviews took approximately 8 daysData entry and tabulation were done in house at RWIRegionNo. of Delegates per region as of 2010No. of Delegates Sampled Per RegionNo. of Delegates reached per region/donePercentage of the delegates reached from the total No.No. of delegates not Reached/not doneCentral 17411510862%22Eastern 20014412965%19Northern 1541018455%3Western19614112463%1272450044561%55This excludes the Executive members/NEC MembersSource of data : FDC electoral commission register 2010Qn1. Are you a delegate eligible to vote in the delegates conference? FrequencyPercentYes445100%No00%Qn2. What is your position? FrequencyPercentChairperson8118.2%Commissioner10.2%Committee Member20.4%Councellor81.8%Delegate20846.7%Deputy Chairperson81.8%Deputy Secretary40.9%District Executive30.7%Elder Kayunga10.2%Elections Supervisor40.9%Incharge Security20.4%LCIII Wakiso10.2%Mobilizer153.4%NEC92.0%Secretary7416.6%Speaker10.2%Woman Representative81.8%Youth Representative153.4%Total445100.0%Qn3. a)In the last one month have you been contacted by: Ekanya FrequencyPercentYes30869.2%No13730.8%Total445100.0%Qn3. b)In the last one month have you been contacted by: Muntu FrequencyPercentYes34577%No10023%Total445100%Qn3. c)In the last one month have you been contacted by: Nandala FrequencyPercentYes25457%No19143%Total445100%Qn4. How were you contacted? MediaMugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedBy SMS48%21%2%29%Delegates Meeting48%28%2%22%One to One54%17%3%25%Phone53%27%2%17%Rally69%23%8%0%Through an agent45%32%3%20%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: a) Region where the Candidate comes from? RatingFrequencyPercent135780.2%2265.8%320.4%461.3%5235.2%610.2%781.8%851.1%940.9%10132.9%Total445100.0%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: b) Member of parliament RatingFrequencyPercent120546.1%2357.9%3235.2%4347.6%57416.6%6214.7%7173.8%8153.4%9132.9%1081.8%Total445100.0%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: c) Trusted?RatingFrequencyPercent110.2%420.4%5184.0%6378.3%74510.1%8388.5%94810.8%1025657.5%Total445100.0%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: d) Charismatic Leadership?RatingFrequencyPercent130.7%210.2%410.2%561.3%6204.5%77416.6%85412.1%95712.8%1022951.5%Total445100.0%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: e) Good character?RatingFrequencyPercent161.3%310.2%410.2%561.3%6153.4%76614.8%84911.0%94911.0%1025256.6%Total445100.0%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: f) Similar Religion?RatingFrequencyPercent139789.2%2153.4%392.0%451.1%561.3%630.7%720.4%820.4%910.2%1051.1%Total445100.0%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: g) Gives money?RatingFrequencyPercent142595.5%240.9%371.6%410.2%520.4%620.4%710.2%820.4%1010.2%Total445100.0%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: h) Military background?FrequencyPercent117338.9%2326.7%3224.5%4255.6%57916.6%6346.5%7275.6%8214.7%992.0%10235.2%Total44596.4%Qn5. On the scale of 1-10, one being the lowest and ten being the highest, please tell me what matters to you: i) A good mobilizer in your view?FrequencyPercent140.9%210.2%310.2%430.7%530.7%6173.8%76815.3%86915.5%97617.1%1020345.6%Total445100.0%Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you? First Choice FrequencyPercentMuntu Mugisha22150%Nandala Mafabi12528%Geofrey Ekanya112%Undecided8820%Total445100%Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you? Second Choice FrequencyPercentMuntu Mugisha11927%Nandala Mafabi19544%Geofrey Ekanya419%Undecided9020%Total445100%Qn6. Who of the three candidates has the message that appeals to you? Third Choice FrequencyPercentMuntu Mugisha174%Nandala Mafabi348%Geoffrey Ekanya30468%Undecided9020%Total445100%Qn7. In your view, what do you think will happen to FDC party after the election? Will the party be; FrequencyPercentStronger29165%Somehow stronger82%United10323%Divided153%Weakened72%I do not know215%Qn8. Having listened to the campaign, who of the campaign team has showed maturity and care for the party during campaign? FrequencyPercentEkanya Geoffrey5512%Nandala Mafabi Camp6214%General Mugisha Muntu Camp20446%Did not Respond12428%Total445100%Qn9. Talking about the choice for the FDC presidency, if elections were held today, which candidate would you vote for to take FDC ahead? FrequencyPercentMugisha Muntu21849%Nandala Mafabi11125%Geoffrey Ekanya133%Not decided10323%Total445100%Qn10. Generally, in your district, which candidate is likely to be supported by delegates? FrequencyPercentEkanya Geoffrey82%Nandala Mafabi10123%Mugisha Muntu23653%Did not know10022%Total445100%Qn11. Please mention three things why that candidate is best to lead FDC Why would you vote himMugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedTotalAddresses issues of the party61108Brings resources to the party50005Calm1501319Capable632011Charismatic leader51039Commited person30003Conceded defeat in the previous election1100112Diplomatic40004Does not support Tribalism33006Friendly to people1641223Good as flag bearer50005Good at public relations20002Good character34141150Good Leadership Skills22124139Good listener60006Good manifesto830112Good mobilization skills15430765Good speaker7102120Has a clean record16202240He has been in opposition for long1021013He has ever worked in Government9140124Qn11. Please mention three things why that candidate is best to lead FDC Why would you vote himMugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedTotalHe has vision50005He is a Gentleman1402117He is displined80019He is focused32005He is hardworking5170123He is more popular20002He is Nationalistic41005He is not busy like Nandala1000010He is patient90009He is presentable44008He is principled30126He is respectable52108He is trust worthy52108Humble person1702120known party history very well20002Liked by many people42107Military background5800058More known to delegates than other candidates31015Not corrupted670013Previous experience21014Qn11. Please mention three things why that candidate is best to lead FDC Why would you vote himMugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedTotalPromised to vote for him1800018Promotes principles and unity in the party2200022Ready to serve the party30036Regional Balance5330341Respectful30115Serious candidate21014Shows More Maturity1810221Should be objective31015Should Have a good heart50016Stong pesonality1171019Take party to the next level540110Talks to people on ground732113Total4912463160828Gender of Responds FrequencyPercentMale34177%Female10423%Total445100%Voting by Gender Mugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedMale48%26%3%22%Female51%20%3%26%Regional Distribution (4 regions) FrequencyPercentCentral10824%Eastern12929%Northern8419%Western12428%Total445100%Voting by Four Regions Mugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedCentral42%27%2%30%Eastern37%34%4%25%Northern63%26%5%6%Western58%13%2%27%Regional Distribution (7 Regions) FrequencyPercentCentral8820%Mid Western5412%North Central4711%North Eastern8720%North Western378%South Eastern429%South Western9020%Total445100%Voting by Seven Regions Mugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedCentral44%26%1%28%Mid Western54%15%4%28%North Central62%21%9%9%North Eastern29%41%6%24%North Western65%32%0%3%South Eastern55%19%0%26%South Western54%16%1%29%Voting By Sub-Regions Mugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedAcholi Sub-Region50%25%10%15%Ankole Sub-Region61%14%2%24%Bukedi Sub-Region35%35%9%22%Bunyoro Sub-Region79%5%0%16%Busoga Sub-Region53%21%0%26%Central42%27%2%30%Elgon Sub-Region14%51%3%31%Kigezi Sub-Region33%10%0%57%Lango Sub-Region74%17%4%4%Karamoja Sub-Region64%18%9%9%Teso Sub-Region31%44%6%19%Toro Sub-Region58%18%3%21%West Nile Sub-Region65%32%0%3%Age Group of Respondents FrequencyPercent19 - 2461%25 - 296515%30 - 3410123%35 - 4415134%45 - 548018%55 - 64429%Total445100%40Voting by Age Group of Respondents Mugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decided19 - 2467%33%0%0%25 - 2951%28%5%17%30 - 3454%25%4%17%35 - 4446%28%2%24%45 - 5450%20%4%26%55 - 6438%19%0%43%Voting by Level of EducationMugisha MuntuNandala MafabiGeoffrey EkanyaNot decidedNone25%25%0%50%Primary School35%29%0%35%Secondary School48%32%0%20%High School46%25%8%20%College/University52%22%3%22%Post graduate60%16%4%20%Adult Education100%0%0%0%Overall responses in September and October Overall Percentage SeptOctMugisha Muntu47%49%Nandala Mafabi26%25%Geoffrey Ekanya1%3%Not Decided27%23%Comparison of responses by regionsCentralEasternNorthernWesternOverallSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctMugisha Muntu47%42%45%37%44%63%51%58%47%49%Nandala Mafabi29%27%34%34%22%26%18%13%26%25%Geoffrey Ekanya0%2%2%4%0%5%0%2%1%3%Not Decided25%30%19%25%34%6%31%27%27%23%Comparison of responses by regionsComparison by GenderMaleFemaleOverallSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctMugisha Muntu48%48%46%51%47%49%Nandala Mafabi26%26%25%20%26%25%Geoffrey Ekanya1%3%0%3%1%3%Not Decided26%22%29%26%27%23%Comparison by Age group of respondents)19 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 4445 - 5455 - 64RefusedOverallSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctSeptOctMugisha Muntu33%67%56%51%55%54%39%46%52%50%45%38%17%0%47%49%Nandala Mafabi33%33%22%28%19%25%38%28%18%20%18%19%17%0%26%25%Geoffrey Ekanya0%0%0%5%0%4%2%2%0%4%0%0%0%0%1%3%Not Decided33%0%22%17%27%17%21%24%30%26%37%43%67%0%27%23%