Intra-MENA trade and investment flows : Trends and · PDF fileIntra-MENA trade and investment...
Transcript of Intra-MENA trade and investment flows : Trends and · PDF fileIntra-MENA trade and investment...
Intra-MENA trade and investment flows :
Trends and conclusions
Mr. Alexander Böhmer, Head of MENA programme, Private Sector Development, OECD
INTRA-MENA TRADE
FLOWS FEATURES
Section 1
2
Important and stable increase of intra-
MENA trade between 2000-2009
3
15982
31332
64505
82336
70476
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen ( unavailable data for Djibouti) Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat
Evolution of intra-MENA merchandise exports, in million of USD
Implementing of GAFTA
agreement
Main Intra-MENA trade partners
4
60% 18%
18%
4%
Share of intra-MENA exports in 2009
GCC North Africa
Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. Levant: Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria. Others : Irak and Yemen (unavailable data for Djibouti) Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat
48%
18%
18%
16%
Share of Intra-MENA import in 2009
Levant Yemen and Irak
INTRA-MENA FOREIGN
DIRECT INVESTMENTS
Section 2
5
Intra -MENA FDI represents non negligeable share of
the total amount of FDI in MENA Region
6
Data sources : The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation 2010
Intra-MENA FDI in percentage of total FDI from the World To MENA
27,7%
21,0%
73,1%
20,6%
24,3%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Am
ou
nt
of
FDI i
nw
ard
in m
illio
n U
SD
Irregular growth of intra-MENA FDI
7
Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen. Data sources: The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation 2010
1 402,80 5 300,70
34 808,49
14 500,24
30 563,38
19 247,60
0,00
5 000,00
10 000,00
15 000,00
20 000,00
25 000,00
30 000,00
35 000,00
40 000,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Intra-MENA FDI Inflows (FDI Inward)
Amount of FDI inward in million USD
Gulf Countries are the first regional
investors in Mediterranean region
8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
gulf countries 1569 2329 7830 20991 20760 9675 6413
MEd11 1530 300 2200 3000 4700 1100 900
total 3099 2629 10030 23991 25460 10775 7313
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Med11 : Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Israël, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia, Lybia, Turkey Gulf countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. Source : ANIMA-MIPO
Net
am
ou
t in
mill
ion
Eu
ros
The Country Risk Classification Method classifies countries into eight risk categories (0-7),
with 0 being the lowest and 7 being the highest risk category.
But risk classification by OECD ECAs of
MENA countries still high
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Country risk classification for selected MENA countries
OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010
Relative risk classification of MENA
compared to other regions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
OECD MENA South Caucasus and Ukraine
Central Asia
Country risk classification for selected regions
OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010
Good news: KSA and Egypt within
Top 25
11
MENA: Towards enhanced regional trade
and investment frameworks
•Goods: further implementation of GAFTA
principles, namely on NTBs
•Services: ongoing liberalisation negotiations with
EU and within Arab League
•Investment protection: strengthened regional
investment protection frameworks
Regional investment frameworks:
the way forward
• Do participants agree that investment frameworks in the region should be strengthened following the strong increase of intra-regional investment and trade flows?
• What is the opinion of the participants on the options to
strengthen regional investment frameworks? Would participants agree on further analysing the options and their effectiveness? How could countries contribute to the analysis?
• Would participants agree to present the findings of the
analysis to the forthcoming MENA-OECD Steering Group and Ministerial Conference with a view to reach political decision on the way forward?
13
Thank you for your attention!
Alexander Böhmer
Head of Unit
MENA-OECD Investment Programme
OECD Private Sector Development Division
2 rue André-Pascal, 75016 Paris, France
Tel: +33-1 45 24 1912
Fax: +33-1 44 30 6135
Email: [email protected]
For information about the MENA-OECD Programme and its activities, please
refer to: www.oecd.org/mena/investment
MENA is the second region in the world
where Real Estate investors anticipate the
better oportunities
15
2%
8%
9%
7%
7%
23%
44%
Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Performance - By Region 2010
Eastern Europe South America Western Europe
Africa North America Middle East
Asia Pacific
2%
4% 4%
6%
7%
9%
16% 26%
26%
Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Performance - MENA
Oman Bahrain Kuwait
North Africa Levant Qatar
UAE Dubai UAE Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia
Sources: Investor Sentiment Survey-Middle East & North Africa – October 2010- Jones Lang Lassale
Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the best
perceived place for investment
16
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Dubai Abu Dhabi Egypt Oman Bahrain Jordan Lebanon Qatar
Preferred choices for future investment in MENA in 2010
Sources : Investing in a Rebond. The 2010 AT Kearney FDI Confidence Index