Interplanetary Space Weather Alerts: Science Benefits · supercomputer modeling to the fundamental...
Transcript of Interplanetary Space Weather Alerts: Science Benefits · supercomputer modeling to the fundamental...
Sun, flare, solar wind. Earth's ionosphere coupling.
Living With a Star
Lika Guhathakurta Program Scientist for New Initiatives Exploration Technology Directorate/NASA AR On Detail from NASA HQ
LWS Activities
Why do Science?
Living With a Star – Science in the Pasteur Mode • How a star works • How it affects humanity’s home • How to live with a star
No Utility Yes
Yes Bohr Pasteur
No Edison
Cur
iosi
ty
Sun-Earth System Science: Growth from a “consuming” science to a “producing”
science for the benefit of humankind
Space Weather is no longer the domain of Earth only!
Space Weather is now also Interplanetary!! Space Weather just became Exoplanetary!!!
Plasmasphere Aurora Io Torus
Cassini/UVIS
IMAGE/FUV IMAGE/EUV
Extreme Space Weather on Close-in Exoplanets
Jack Eddy Postdoctoral Fellowships
Living with a Star Institute
Heliophysics Summer School
TM
April 19, 2017
Hanne Mauriello, Director Meg Austin, Senior Advisor
https://cpaess.ucar.edu/heliophysics/summer-school
A New Science Needs New Scientists Funded by NASA and managed by UCAR, the first Heliophysics Summer Scho
ol was convened in July 2007. The Deans were George Siscoe and Karel Schrijver. 35 young scientists were instructed by 23 experts in topics ranging from practicalt echniques in supercomputer modeling to the fundamental physics of magnetic explosions. Since then hundreds of students from dozens of countries have attended the summer school. Graduates with extraordinary promise compete for and receive Jack Eddy Fellowships, named after John A “Jack” Eddy, a pioneering researcher in solar physics who shaped thinking about the Sun-Earth connection in the 20th century. These fellowships provide the support they need to continue their studies as heliophysics post-docs at leading Universities. Later, some Jack Eddy Fellows return to the Heliophysics Summer School as instructors.
Chapters and Headings in Heliophysics Text Books
Whole Heliophysics Life Cycle
Caterpillars enter the cocoon of the Summer School and emerge as beautiful Heliophysics butterflies. Jack Eddy Fellows are the Monarchs.
Five Heliophysics Textbooks give academic form to this new discipline laying the groundwork first given that we were creating the first comprehensive reading and teaching material for Heliophysics as an integrated discipline growing out of adjacent, largely independently evolving scientific disciplines. LWS Institutes are scientific crucibles where barriers of background and jargon are broken down. This creates a kind of synergy that can lead to big advances in cross-discipilnary Science. The institutes expand Boundaries from Pasteur to Edison Quadrant.
Heliophysics 10th Anniversary Celebration 2 August 2016, Boulder, CO
(left to right): Nicholas Gross; Jan Sojka; George Siscoe; Karel Schrijver; Fran Bagenal; Dana Longcope; Madhulika Guhathakurta (NASA/Living With a Star sponsor); Amitava Bhattacharjie; and Meg Austin, CPAESS Senior Advisor.
• 349 students • 12 undergraduate teachers • 103 faculty • 25 Jack Eddy fellowships • 75 LWS Institute participants
Heliophysics summer school and books • Project started in 2006 with a proposal to LWS/TR&T by Karel Schrijver and George Siscoe. • School leads: Fran Bagenal, Amitava Bhattacharjee, Dana Longcope, Karel Schrijver, and Jan Sojka. • Schools last 8 or 9 days: • ~50% of the time is dedicated to lectures, • ~40% to labs/homework/discussions, and • ~10% to career skills (introductions, short presentations, posters, career discussion, Q&A sessions, student-teacher mentoring sessions, …), • with some excursions within Boulder (SWPC, LASP, …) • Each year approximately 35 students are selected from 70-90 applications by mid-PhD to early postdoctoral students from around the US and elsewhere in the world. • The 10 schools trained well over 350 promising researchers by ~80 subject-matter experts from all sub-disciplines within or connected to heliophysics from around the world. • Four ‘reader’/textbook volumes published by Cambridge University Press. • Online resources (http://vsp.ucar.edu/heliophysics/summerschool) • Lectures from all years in pdf format, many also available as movies, accompanied by problem sets, and with student labs and their documentation, and Heliophysics “Volume V”. The website offers multi-perspective access and search capabilities, and expanded problem-set and lab documentation resources.
Heliophysics Resources All based on Textbooks I, II, III & IV
Additional resources, compiled from ten years of Heliophysics Summer Schools, include:
• Slide presentations and videos of lectures • Textbook problem sets and solutions • Laboratory primers created by the CCMC Modeling Center to
help: • Use the CCMC tools designed to interrogate Heliophysics
models at CCMC, and • Obtain a top-level view of the connectivity and naming of
regions and parameters that comprise the heliophysics system.
Heliophysics Summer School
• 2018 Application deadline: 23 February
• Started in 2007
• Purpose: to teach the next generation of scientists about the physics of space weather events that start at the Sun and influence atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres throughout the solar system.
Heliophysics Summer School
• 349 students to date.
(30-35 students each year).
• 3-4 undergraduate
teachers (2013-2015).
• 10-15 university faculty
members per year.
Heliophysics Summer School student award home institution locations
Heliophysics Summer School Faculty Locations
States
Countries
Undergraduate Teachers
Jack Eddy Postdoctoral Fellowship Program
• Application Deadline 12th January, 2018
• Purpose is to train the next generation of scientists needed in the field of Heliophysics
• John "Jack" Eddy (1931-2009) was a pioneering solar researcher, and was honored with the debut of the Jack Eddy Postdoctoral Fellowship.
• First class was appointed in 2010
Jack Eddy Fellowship Applications received annually
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2010
2011
2012
2013
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2015
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2017
Jack Eddy Postdoctoral Fellows
2010 - 2017 Fellows
Ankush Bhaskar Thiago Brito Nicholas Bunch Narayan Chapagain Bin Chen Joel Dahlin Maria de Soria-
Santacruz Pich Chuanfei Dong Seth Dorfman Stathis Ilonidis Meng Jin Bidya Binay Karak Kamen A. Kozarev King-Fai Li Ryan McGranaghan Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo Ksenia Orlova Jan Paral Elena Provornikova Neel Savani Antonia Savcheva Roger Varney Chao Yue Liang Zhao Ying Zou
Jack Eddy Fellowship Program Hosts
• Boston University, Joshua Semeter • Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Edward DeLuca • Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Atmospherics, Katharine Reeves • Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Anthony Mannucci • LASP/University of Colorado, Scot Elkington • Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Dr. Karel Schrijver • Naval Research Laboratory, (John) Martin Laming • NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Spiro Antiochos • NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), David Gary Sibeck • NCAR High Altitude Observatory, Dr. Sarah Gibson • NCAR High Altitude Observatory, Mark Miesch • NCAR High Altitude Observatory, Stan Solomon • NCAR High Altitude Observatory, Dr. Michael J. Wiltberger • New Jersey Institute of Technology, Dale Gary • Princeton University, Amitava Bhattacharjee • Stanford University, Thomas Duvall • Stanford University, Dr. Maria Spasojevic • University of California, Los Angeles, Vassilis Angelopoulos & Troy Carter, • University of California, Los Angeles, Yuri Y. Shprits • University of California, Los Angeles, Richard Thorne (3) • University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Jonathan Makela • U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Angelos Vourlidas
HAO 17%
UCLA 17%
Harvard 13%
NRL 9%
Stanford 8%
BU 4%
JPL 4%
LASP 4%
Lockheed Martin 4%
Nasa Goddard 4%
New Jersey IT 4%
Princeton 4% UI
4%
UW 4%
HAO UCLA Harvard NRL Stanford
BU JPL LASP Lockheed Martin Nasa Godd
New Jersey IT Princeton UI UW
Living With A Star Institute Organizing & Topic Committee
The goal of the LWS Institute is to “Develop the scientific understanding necessary to enable the U.S. to effectively address those aspects of the connected Sun Earth system that directly affects life and society.”
Prof. Tamas Gombosi - University of Michigan (Chair) Caspar Ammann - NCAR RAL Doug Biesecker - NOAA SWPC Jill Dahlburg - Naval Research Laboratory Mike Hapgood - UK Met Office Bill Murtagh - NOAA SWPC Karel Schryver - Lockheed Martin SAL Stan Solomon - NCAR HAO Kent Tobiska - Space Environment
• 8 to 15 members for scientist teams with complimentary expertise; • Team may meet twice in 12-month period; • Team leader responsible for proposal submission and organizing
meetings and assignments. • Primary goal is comprehensive report and at least one peer-reviewed
team publication; • Encourage inclusion of one or two early career scientists on team.
Living With A Star Institute
2017 Topic Areas (current call for applications)
• TEC and ionospheric scintillation for GPS applications.
• Prediction and specification of >10 MeV proton flux.
2016 Topic Areas • Nowcasts of radiation storms (proton events) at
energy levels that could create a radiation hazard for aircrew and passengers
• Nowcasts of atmospheric drag for LEO spacecraft
2015 Topic Areas • Principles in relation to the effects of
geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during CME-driven geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs).
LWS Institute Topics
2015 LWS Institute topic: Principles in relation to the effects of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during CME-driven geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs). Working Group members: A. Pulkkinen (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Lead), E. Bernabeu (Dominion Virginia Power, Co-Lead), A. Viljanen (Finnish Meteorological Institute), R. Pirjola (Finnish Meteorological Institute and National Resources Canada), D. Boteler (National Resources Canada), J. Eichner (Munich-Re, Germany), A. Thomson (British Geological Survey), P. Cilliers (South African National Space Agency), D. Welling (University of Michigan), N. Savani (George Mason University and Naval Research Laboratory), R. Weigel (George Mason University), J.J. Love (US Geological Survey), C. Balch (NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center), C. Ngwira (The Catholic University of America), G. Crowley (Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates, LLC), A. Schultz (Oregon State University), R. Kataoka (National Institute of Polar Research, Japan)
Advisory members: M. MacAlester (Federal Emergency Management Agency), R. Waggel (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission), M. Olson (North American Electric Reliability Corporation), S. Mahmood (Department of Homeland Security), J. Ostrich (Department of Energy). Observing member: C.T. Gaunt (University of Cape Town, South Africa), C. Felton (Civil Contingencies Secretariat, UK).
Principles in relation to the effects of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during CME-driven geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs).
Results
1. 2016 Annual AMS Conference – 13th Conference on Space Weather Poster - Geomagnetically induced currents in the ground beneath our feet: The view from outer space (N. Savani) Poster - Geomagnetically induced currents in the ground beneath our feet: The view from near space (D. Welling) Poster – Geomagnetic storms: How bad can they be? (C. Ngwira) Panel Session – Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Science, Engineering, and Future Challenges - Lika Guhathakurta, NASA (Moderator) - Antti Pulkkinen, NASA - Robert Weigel, George Mason University - Christopher Balch, NOAA/NWS Space Environment Center - Emanuel Bernabeu, PJM 2. Paper - This paper is a brief introduction to the NASA Living With a Star (LWS) Institute GIC Working Group Special Collection that is product of work by a group of researchers from more than 20 different international organizations. In this introductory paper, I summarize the group's work in the context of novel NASA LWS Institute element and introduce the individual contributions in the collection. Pulkkinen, A. (2016), Introduction to NASA Living With a Star (LWS) Institute GIC Working Group Special Collection, Space Weather, 14, doi:10.1002/2016SW001537
2016 LWS Institute - SAFESKY Working Group
Working Group Members: Bill Atwell (Space Environment Technologies) Peter Beck (Seibersdorf Laboratories) Eric Benton (Oklahoma State University) Kyle Copeland (FAA) Geoff Crowley (Astraspace) Theresia Eberbach, Vereinigung Cockpit (German ALPA) Brad Gersey (Prairie View A & M University) Guillaume Gronoff (SSAI) Alex Hands (University of Surrey) Mike Holland (Allied Pilots Association) Kamen Kozarev (Harvard) Aaron Lamb (Earth to Sky Maritime) Kevin Macelhaney (Allied Pilots Association) Kathleen Malone (Allied Pilots Association) Matthias Meier (German Aerospace Center) Chris Mertens (NASA) Suzanne Nowicki, LANL Terry Onsager (NOAA) Bob Rutledge (NOAA)
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Nathan Schwadron (University of New Hampshire) Peggy Shea, SSSRC (Small Spacecraft Systems Research Center) Karen Shelton-Mur (FAA) Don Smart (Small Spacecraft Systems Research Center) Charles Smith (University of New Hampshire) Olga Sokolova (St Petersburg Polytchnic University) Ulrich Straube (European Space Agency) Kent Tobiska (Space Environment Technologies, Lead) Larry Townsend (University of Tennessee, Knoxville) Steve Wender (LANL) Scott Wiley (Jacobs Technology) Rick Wilkins (Prairie View A & M University) Mike Wiltberger (UCAR/HAO) Michael Xapsos (NASA) KiChang Yoon (Korean Space Weather) Yihua Zheng (NASA)
2016 LWS Institute Topic: LEO Satellite Drag Working Group
Working Group Members: Y. Zhang (Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, Lead) J. C. Jone (Northrup-Grumman, co-lead) L. Paxton (Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory) G. Bust (Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory) A. Ridley (University of Michigan) A. Vourlidas (Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory) D. Knipp (University of Colorado) M. Mlynczak (NASA) N. Ericson (US Air Force Space Command) E. Sutton (Air Force Research Laboratory) A. Stephan (Naval Research Laboratory) Y. Zheng (NASA) H. Liu (Kyushu University, Japan) M. Hejduk (Astrorum Consulting LLC) W. Lee (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) J. Thayer (University of Colorado) S. Bruinsma (Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales)
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2016 LWS Institute Topic: LEO Satellite Drag Working Group Results
13 papers published in special section of Space Weather Journal: (1) The non-storm time corrugated upper thermosphere: What's beyond MSIS?: The Corrugated Thermosphere, Huixin Liu, et al., published June 2017. (2) A Review of Thermospheric Nitric Oxide and Its Relation to Satellite Drag D.J. Knipp (3) Atmospheric Drag and its Impact on Low Earth Orbit Satellite Operations Jim Jones et al. (4) The Effect of Neutral Density Estimation Errors on Satellite Conjunction Serious Event Rates” M.D. Hejduk and D.E. Snow. (submitted) (5) Measurement techniques for thermospheric density: A path for improving satellite drag determination Andy Stephan (6) EUV Irradiance Inputs to Thermospheric Density Models: Open Issues and Path Forward Angelos Vourlidas and Sean Bruinsman (submitted, Nov 8, 2017)) (7) Solar EUV flux estimated from solar radio flux Yongliang Zhang and Larry Paxton (submitted, Nov., 2017)
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(8) Storm-time neutral compositions variations Y. Zhang et al., (9) Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting M. Mlynczak et al. (submitted, Oct, 2017) (10) "Dragster: an Ensemble Assimilative Model of the Thermosphere Based on Satellite Drag Measurements" (submitted) Marcin Pilinski et al. (11) Physics based Simulations of thermosphere Aaron Ridley and his student, submitted. (12) Solar inputs and solar wind forecasting in the context of satellite drag Yihua Zheng (13) Mehta, P. M., A. C. Walker, E. K. Sutton, and H. C. Godinez (2017), New density estimates derived using accelerometers on board the CHAMP and GRACE satellites, Space Weather, 15, 558–576, doi:10.1002/2016SW001562. (published)
2018 Call for Applications LWS Institute
Two working group topic areas that seeking proposals that develop these principles in relation to one or other of the following : 1) TEC and ionospheric scintillation for GPS. 2) Prediction and specification of >10 MEV PROTON FLUX
Visit the heliophysics website at: heliophysics.ucar.edu
Exploring Coronal Physics through Imaging Spectroscopy
Temperature and Flow Speed in the Solar Corona
Interdisciplinary Airborne Science from NASA's WB-57
Measuring the Infrared Solar Corona Citizen Science Approach to Measuring
the Polarization of Solar Corona Rosetta-stone experiments at infrared
and visible wavelengths
Solar eclipse-induced changes in the
ionosphere over the continental Ionization sources on the formation of
the D-region ionosphere Empirically-Guided Solar Eclipse
Modeling A 3-D radiative transfer closure
experiment Land and Atmospheric Responses
The total solar eclipse reveals our connection to the cosmos
Earth is profoundly connected to our star and the total solar eclipse across America this past August just drove that point home.
Heliophysics Gets Its Day in the Sun at Eclipse Hearing
The House Science Committee held a joint subcommittee hearing on Sept. 28 dedicated to the total solar eclipse that traversed the U.S. on Aug. 21. Committee members from both parties marveled at the widespread interest in the event and conversed with witnesses from the scientific community about public outreach efforts, heliophysics, and space weather preparedness.
Five representatives from the scientific community testified at a House Science Committee hearing on the August total eclipse, discussing eclipse-enabled research opportunities, future capabilities in heliophysics, and solar weather research and preparedness. They also spoke about the expansive public engagement efforts associated with the event.
Discussion turns to space weather: Discussion of the sun’s corona also provided hearing participants with the opportunity to discuss space weather hazards. In May, the Senate passed the “Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act,” which would enshrine many of the government’s ongoing space weather efforts in statute. Science Committee member Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO) introduced a companion bill in the House in June that is co-sponsored by Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-WA), Science Committee Ranking Member Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX), and President Trump’s nominee for NASA administrator, Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK).
Eclipse was a prime opportunity for STEM outreach
PLANETARY DEFENSE: RADAR 3D SHAPE MODELING
NASA FDL OVERVIEW- DR LIKA GUHATHAKURTA (on behalf of the FDL team.)
“An AI R&D accelerator that tackles knowledge gaps useful to the space program. The program is an intense 8-week concentrated study on topics not only important to NASA, but also to humanity’s future.”
FDL IS INTERDISCIPLINARY: 50% DATA SCIENCE / 50% SPACE SCIENCES
•Current operational flare forecasting relies on human morphological analysis of active regions and the persistence of solar flare activity.
•The FDL team performed analyses of solar magnetic complexity and deployed convolutional neural networks to connect solar UV images taken by SDO/AIA into forecasts of maximum x-ray emissions.
•The technique has the potential to improve both the reliability and accuracy of solar flare predictions.
• The vast amounts of data collected by satellites and observatories operated by government agencies such as NASA, NOAA and the US Geological Survey remains a largely untapped resource for discovering how the Sun interacts with Earth.
• The FDL team built a knowledge discovery module named STING (Solar Terrestrial Interactions Neural Network Generator) on top of industry-standard, open source machine learning frameworks to allow researchers to further explore these complex datasets.
• STING showed the ability to accurately predict the variability of Earth’s geomagnetic fields in response to solar driving - specifically the KP index.
• In the process the tool discovered the imprint of the magnetospheric ring current in precursors of geomagnetic storms - an example of an AI derived discovery.
Goal & Scope
IHY (http://ihy2007.org) 38
The goal of this invited technical workshop is to explore ways to enable data-rich characterization and now-casting of the radiation environment relevant to NASA science, aviation and deep space exploration. The products of this workshop will inform the development of one or more FY 2019 calls for proposals for radiation detection sensors, analytic models and other enabling technologies that can be applied to ionizing radiation at altitudes ranging from near-Earth to cis-lunar, and beyond. The radiation modeling and forecast communities will be involved in order to understand the impacts of current data-sparse observations on modeling and forecasting of the environment, and also to explore how a data-rich characterization of the environment could be used to augment and advance models and forecasts of the radiation environment (both the external environment and the environment under shielding). In addition discussion will be led to develop strategy for standardized data collection, storage and distribution within each sub-group. The workshop is organized to encourage a spirited exchange of ideas between various communities of interest. Participants have been assigned to breakout groups to develop approaches for distributed radiation observations in three domains 1) Aviation altitude; 2) Deep space and 3) Interior to a deep space habitat. The goal of the breakout groups is to develop approaches for distributed radiation observations built around specific scenarios, with the purpose of providing focus as well as eliciting innovative ideas. Key technical challenges that could be addressed will be summarized; notional techniques to address these questions will be identified; the innovative core concepts and subsequent impacts and benefits will be clearly articulated. The workshop findings, along with summaries of the presentations and discussion will be produced to help decision makers as they formulate FY2019 calls for ladiation detection proposals under various scenarios. Synopses of the report may be made available to the communities of interest through appropriate journals, websites, and by a NASA news release.
Goal & Scope of the radiation workshop
IHY (http://ihy2007.org)
The goal of this invited technical workshop is to explore ways to enable data-rich characterization and now-casting of the radiation environment relevant to NASA science, aviation and deep space exploration. The products of this workshop will inform the development of one or more FY 2019 calls for proposals for radiation detection sensors, analytic models and other enabling technologies that can be applied to ionizing radiation at altitudes ranging from near-Earth to cis-lunar, and beyond. The radiation modeling and forecast communities will be involved in order to understand the impacts of current data-sparse observations on modeling and forecasting of the environment, and also to explore how a data-rich characterization of the environment could be used to augment and advance models and forecasts of the radiation environment (both the external environment and the environment under shielding). In addition discussion will be led to develop strategy for standardized data collection, storage and distribution within each sub-group. The workshop is organized to encourage a spirited exchange of ideas between various communities of interest. Participants have been assigned to breakout groups to develop approaches for distributed radiation observations in three domains 1) Aviation altitude; 2) Deep space and 3) Interior to a deep space habitat. The goal of the breakout groups is to develop approaches for distributed radiation observations built around specific scenarios, with the purpose of providing focus as well as eliciting innovative ideas. Key technical challenges that could be addressed will be summarized; notional techniques to address these questions will be identified; the innovative core concepts and subsequent impacts and benefits will be clearly articulated. The workshop findings, along with summaries of the presentations and discussion will be produced to help decision makers as they formulate FY2019 calls for ladiation detection proposals under various scenarios. Synopses of the report may be made available to the communities of interest through appropriate journals, websites, and by a NASA news release.
LWS TRT Website http://lwstrt.gsfc.nasa.gov
• For communication - Disseminating program info - Collecting community input
• For documenting - Program activities (e.g., LPAG activities, meetings,…etc) - Program output & successes
A portal….
New LWSTRT Website Menu items items
Research Highlight (RH) records export
For project information and documentations LWSTRT RH metrics
investigator input
Back-filling process on going (need investigators’ confirmation)
Project Search
By investigator
By keyword search (coming) • Website feedback button
Coming attractions
Presentation & media material upload
Team reporting by FSTs/TSTs
Website analytics
New