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Internationalisation in the face of demographic change:
student recruitment and its role in the upcoming decades
Christian BertholdUwe Brandenburg
Warszawa, April 2008
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Content
Demographic development in Germany
Important markets (new and old) for HEIs
Market entry: highly individualised
Options for Poland?!
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Who we are?
CHE Centre for Higher Education Development
CHE non profit / CHE Consult
One brand – two companies
CHE non profit
– Think tank to stimulate reforms in HE-System
– Rankings
CHE Consult is a consultancy
– for German and international HEIs
– for the ministeries of the federal states
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Impact to Higher Education
People are growing older
– small impact to HE-System, more to society at large
Declining population
– fewer traditional students
– increasing importance of further qualification and life long learning
– increasing importance of foreign students
– need for recruitment-strategies to disadvantaged people (socio-economically)
– need for recruitment-strategies to migrants
Increasing diversity
– growing drop out rates
– need for new didactical concepts for divers students
Demographic development in Germany
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 20452035
2007 – 20132007 – 2013
2020 – 20302020 – 2030
Younger Group (20 – 25)
Elder Group (60 – 65)
Source: StBA 2004 – 10. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, Variante 5
Demographic development in Germany
in millions
Progression of age group population development for 20-25 and 60-65 year-olds (2005-2050)
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Demographic development in Germany
Predicted demand for HE Enrolments in Germany, 2007 - 2020
-20.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.00020
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Surplus of Demand Surplus of Supply Balance
2005
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Data Atlas for the German HE-System
Two purposes:
Mapping and analysing local quantitative and qualitative impacts of demographic change on Higher Education Institutions (HEIs)
Creating a database for the development of recruitment and institutional strategies for European HEIs
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Data Atlas for the German HE-System
Conclusions
Demographic change is not only a matter of quantitiy, but also quality
Regionally uneven demand Higher rates of participation in HE can
overcompensate the demographic change Potential candidates have to be turned into
enrolments Domestic demand should not overrule
internationalisation
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
University Konstanz
Info-BoxOverall number of first-year-students at the University Konstanz in 2005 (Educational Germans): 1.757
Most resourceful districts1. Kreis Konstanz: 12,3% (216)2. Bodenseekreis: 6,7% (118)3. Kreis Ravensburg: 4,7% (82)4. Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis: 3,5%
(61)5. Kreis Tuttlingen: 3,2% (56)
Most resourceful Länder1. Baden-Württemberg:74,2% (1.304)2. Bayern: 7,8% (137)3. Nordrhein-Westfalen: 4,7% (83)
Catchment Area Up toUp toUp toUp toand more
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Info-Box
Overall Number of first-year-students at the Universität Frankfurt in 2005 (Educational Germans): 4.317
Most resourceful districts1. Frankfurt a.M. (Stadt): 22,1% (956)2. Main-Kinzig-Kreis: 8,0% (345)3. Kreis Offenbach: 7,8% (338)4. Hochtaunuskreis: 4,6% (200)5. Offenbach a.M.: 3,9% (169)
Most resourceful Länder1. Hessen: 72,0% (3.107)2. Baden-Württemberg: 7,7% (331)3. Rheinland-Pfalz: 4,5% (193)4. NRW: 4,3% (184)
Catchment Area Up toUp toUp toUp toand more
University Frankfurt / Main - 2005
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Important markets (new and old) for HEIs
Market analyses:– British Council „Vision 2020“– IDP „Global Student Mobility 2025“– CHE „Analysing the Future Market – Target Countries
for German HEIs” What can be the interests of HEIs in international
students?– Quantitative: student numbers, return on investment– Qualitative: diversity, student performance, political
aspects, reputation
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Global trends
Bedarf an Studienplätzen in Mio
97,3
37
9,6 8,1
26,7 24,9
4,9 1,4
262,8
158,9
60,944,6 42,9 41,3
11,6 2,1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Welt Asien Indien China Amerika Europa Afrika Ozeanien
2000 2025
Demand of University Places in Mio.
Sources: IDP and British Council
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Anzahl der weltweit mobilen Studierenden
7,2
5,8
2,1
3,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2003 2010 2020 2025
in M
io
Number of globally mobile students
Sources: IDP and British Council
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Important markets (new and old) for HEIs
Germany
How important is Germany
for the target country?
What is the quantitative potential of the target country?
What is the importance of the target countryfor German HEIs?
UNESCO’s Global Education Digest top 5 destination countries
Size of age group 15-24, based on UN projection data
Share of one country within the international student body in Germany (DAAD Data)
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Important markets (new and old) for HEIs
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
Japan
Sudan
Uganda
Turkey
Iran
Russian Federation
Vietnam
Egypt
Mexico
Philippines
Ethiopia
Brazil
Indonesia
Pakistan
Nigeria
USA
China
India
Size of age group 15-24 (in 1000)
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Important markets (new and old) for HEIs
0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000
Georgia
Italy
India
Romania
South Korea
Spain
Austria
France
Cameroon
Ukraine
Turkey
Morocco
Russian Federation
Poland
Bulgaria
China
Number of international students (Bildungsausländer)
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Important markets (new and old) for HEIs
How to analyse the markets? CHE approach:– Population: age group– Education:
• Participation rates (secondary, tertiary)• Tuition fees
– Economic:• GDP per capita• GINI coefficient• Knowledge Economy Index (KEI)
– Data related to Germany:• Development of Bildungsausländer and first year students• Enrolment requirements• Country characteristics
17 countries analysed
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Important markets (new and old) for HEIs
POLANDAge Group Development (15-24 year-olds in 1000s)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Market entry: highly individualised
Instruments:– Offshore– Education Cities– Degree franchising– Distance learning– Second campus at home– Direct recruitment– Vertical recruitment
Instruments and interests have to match (matrix) 5 case studies: Brazil, China, Poland, Turkey,
USA
Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008
Options for Poland
As resource country:– In the next 10 years, West-German HEIs overflooded
with students because of short term demographic development
– But: East German HEIs have large potential from now onwards!
As recruiting country:– Analysis of current situation needed– Differentiation between traditional resource countries
and new target countries– Individualised strategies needed, market entry modes
are crucial!