INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCEINTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL...

INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON

CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY

INTERNATIONAL

TECHNICAL CONFERENCE

ON CLIMATE CHANGE,

AGRICULTURAL TRADE

AND FOOD SECURITY

15 -17 November 2017

FAO Headquarters, Rome Italy

Technological developments

Government programs and insurance

Farm production practices

Farm financial management



The Market of Maize in Eastern and Southern

Africa in the Context of Climate Change

Lukas Kornher

Post-Doctoral Researcher/Department of Food Economics and Food Policy,

University of Kiel

17 November 2017



Indroduction

• Climate change (CC) is expected to have severe consquences on

food security in Eastern and Southern Africa (great importance of

single crop maize)

• The policy environment (national reserves, trade policies, etc.) is

important to address the challenges of CC

• Climate smart agriculture and adaptation measures are necessary

to improve food security and resilience to CC



• Reduction of maize yields between

6 and 13% by 2090

• Frequency of extreme weather

events increases probability of

harvest failures

• Additional uncertainty about impact

of CC on land degradation

Food Availability

Chart title

Source: Robertson (2015).



• Projected price increases and erosion

of agricultural incomes (yield

reduction) put poor households at risk

• Increasing food market volatility (prices

and production)

• Higher temperature enhances

transmission of vector borne diseases

and put nutrition security under risk

(importance of fish consumption)

Accessibility, stability, utilization

Budget share Income share

Tanzania 15.7% 18.2%

Malawi 20.9% 21.3%

Zambia 15.8% 12.0%

Uganda 6.0% 5.5%

Ethiopia 11.8% 8.5%

Source: Chauvin et al. (2017) based on LSMS data.



• Structural trade deficit in the region

which is expected to increase in

future

• Intra-regional market integration

often interrupted by export

restrictions

• Markets characterized by substantial

interventions through price

stabilization programs/ strategic

reserves

Maize market in the region

Population

(2013)

Production

(2013)

Average trade

balance (2010-

2013)

Burundi 9.6 million 162,000 -23,797

Ethiopia 94.9 million 6,500,000 2,747

Kenya 44.8 million 3,600,000 -197,360

Malawi 16.5 million 3,600,000 75,094

Mozambique 26.4 million 1,200,000 -96,157

Rwanda 11.1 million 670,000 -82,665

Somalia 13.1 million 150,000 69,353

Tanzania 50.6 million 5,400,000 11,636

Uganda 37.5 million 2,700,000 106,090

Zambia 15.2 million 2,500,000 359,841

Zimbabwe 15.1 million 860,000 -342,076

Total Region 335 million 27,342,000 -117,294

Source: FAOSTAT (2017).



Domestic support and price stabilization

• Moderate support can improve food

security (Magrini et al., 2017)

• Interventions set wrong incentives

and keep inefficient producers in the

market

• Market uncertainty through

interventions

• Financial resources are tied and

necessary investments are blocked

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8Nom

inal A

sssis

tance

Coeff

icie

nt

(NA

C)

Annual yield growth in %

Source: MAFAP (2017) and FAOSTAT (2017).



• Regional trade integration could

benefit all countries in the region

• Discretionary export policies

generate market uncertainty, but

limited success in shielding

domestic prices (Portreous, 2017)

• Trade as stimulus for increased

efficiency and competitiveness of

industries (distributional effects)

Trade integration/policies

Source: FAOSTAT (2017).

12.1%

20.3%

13.1%

26.6%

22.1%

60.9%

37.2% 37.3%

20.3%

27.0%

43.7%

9.0%

VARI ABI L I TY I N M AI ZE PRO DUCTI ON ( CO EFFIC IENT O F VARI ATI O N, 2 0 0 0 - 2014)



Evaluation of current policies in preparation for CC

Food security dimension

Availability Access Stability

Price stabilization program -No guarantee for greater food

availability through higher returns

-Availability may even decline as

market distortions create

inefficiencies

-Reduction of market prices during

crises improves access for

consumers

-General price increase benefits

wealthier households

-Substantial contribution to greater

stability of the food system

Emergency food reserve -Short-term increase of availability in

the market by food distribution

-Subsidized food distribution to the

vulnerable improves market access

-Reduction of instability in emergency

situation

Domestic support -Increase in production driven by

expansion of production but not by

productivity gains

-Improvement in accessibility in the

short-run, but inefficient production

may increase prices in the long-run

-No direct impact

Trade

Policies -Short-term increase of availability

through export restrictions; increasing

unpredictability

-If domestic prices can be insulated

positive, if not no effect

-Stability of domestic markets through

anti-cyclical policies, but negative

externalities; increasing

unpredictability

Integration -Export prospects increase efficiency

and can improve availability

-Net buyers benefit in all countries,

net sellers lose if production gets

unprofitable

-Enhanced price and supply stability

through imports and exports



Mitigation

• Need to limit GHG emissions

• To what extent do regional

policies help?

Adaptation

• Technological developments

• Government programs and

insurance

• Farm production practices

• Farm financial management

Mitigation and adaptation



Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)

• Productivity gains

• Adaptation

• Mitigation

Innovative approaches

• Vertical integration and

commercialization

• Financial services

Market access and development



Conservation agriculture

• Minimum tillage, permanent

soil cover, and crop rotation

• Productivity gains, soil and

water conservation, mitigation?

• Successful expansion in the

region (Kassam et al., 2015),

but still large potential

Agroforestry

• Intercropping of crops and

trees/shrubs

• Productivity gains, income

diversification, soil and nutrient

conservation, increase of carbon

sequestration through increased

biomass

CSA - Examples



• Policy interventions need to be clearly defined/transparent and must

not promote inefficient resource use

• Support for sustainable intensification, promotion of investment in

CSA through tenure security, knowledge diffusion, etc.

• Market development as adaptation strategy

• No one policy will be able to address the varied aspects of CC and

the impacts on food security

Need for a set of complementary policies

Conclusions



THANK YOU

For further information please contact Lukas Kornher

([email protected])

or visit (http://www.food-econ.uni-kiel.de/en/food-

economics/team/dr-lukas-kornher)



The Market of Maize in Eastern and

Southern Africa in the Context of Climate

Change

Lukas Kornher

Post-Doctoral Researcher/Department of Food Economics and Food Policy,

University of Kiel

17 November 2017

INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCEINTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL...

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