International Relations (13) Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons
description
Transcript of International Relations (13) Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons
History of First Nuclear Tests
• 1945 USA (Trinity)• 1949 USSR (Fat Man, Kazakhstan)• 1952 UK (Australia)• 1967 China (Sinkiang)• 1968 France (S. Pacific)
• 1974 India (Smiling Buddha, Rajasthan)
• 1998 Pakistan • 2006 NK (Poonggye)
Nuclear Arms Race (2004 inventory)
• Russia : 16,000• USA : 10,350• China: 400• France : 350• UK : 200
• Israel : 200• India : 30 ~ 35• Pakistan : 24 ~ 48
(1987 peak: USSR ~ 40,000, USA ~ 20,000)
US/RUS New Initiatives
• “4 Knights” recommendation (2008.1)– Perry/Nunn(Dem), Kissinger/Schultz(Rep)
• Obama NW disarmament, highest priority “US first to develop and use, moral
obligation”
• Accelerated START-2 revision(2009.4.1. Obama/Medvedev Joint State.)
• UN Security Council Summit (2009.9.24)UNSCR 1887: World without NW
Goal of a World without NW
• Nuclear security summit, April 2010– Strengthen NM control international
regime– US/RUS to lead by example– Prep meeting called, Dec. 3, Tokyo
• NPT Review Conference, May-June 2010
• “NW have’s” may gain moral ground• Obama wins 2009 Nobel Peace Prize
Nuclear Weapon Free Zones
• Antarctic zone : Antarctic Treaty• Latin America : Treaty of Tlatelolco• ASEAN region : Treaty of Bangkok• Africa continent : Treaty of Pelindaba• S. Pacific region : Treaty of Rarotonga• Central Asia region: Treaty of Almaty
• NE Asia region : (Limited NWFZ-NEA?)
Special Case of NK
• 1985 Signed NPT• 1992 SG Agreement with IAEA, first
crisis• 1994 Agreed Framework, KEDO
Project• 2002 IAEA/NPT withdrawal, second
crisis• 2006 Nuclear test (Poonggye)• 2007 6-Party Talks, resolution agreed
8
The Yongbyon nuclear sites
9
The 5 and the 50 MWe reactors
Reactor
Fuel storage
10
Discharged fuel in baskets
11
Yongbyon’s reprocessing facilities
Current Status of 6-P Talks (2008-)
• Shut-down, dismantle of 5MW cooling tower
• Elimination from US terror country list • IAEA inspectors on Yongbyun site• Verification process underway• Heavy oil supplied (half)• First ROK nuclear expert visited
Yongbyun (2009.1)• Nuclear brinkmanship continues• NK/US talks under “Grand Bargain”
Bilateral Talks may lead to
• Reopening of the 6-Party Talks• Negative security assurance• Diplomatic liaison offices in capitals• Energy assistance to NK
• NK moratorium on nuclear/missile tests
• IAEA verification, rejoin NPT, etc.
Global Nuclear Renaissance
• 439 NPPs in 31 MS in operation (2008)– Delivering 15% of total world electricity
• 33 NPPs in 13 MS under construction• 32 NPPs closed down, under
decommissioning• Nuclear suppliers global conglomerates
– PWR : AREVA (Framatom+Siemens) EPR Westinghouse (Toshiba + ABB-CE) AP-1000 Korea (Doosan + ?) APR-1400 Russia (AEP) VVER-1000
World Nuclear Power Forecast
• Installed capacity 1970 15 Gwe 1990 300 Gwe 2010 380 Gwe 2030 570 Gwe (low)
700 Gwe (high)
- major growth in Asia, Russia expected -
Nuclear export – Korean Dream
• New NPP market– Turnkey project supplier– Components supplier
• Existing NPP market– Replacement components supplier– Service contracts
• Nuclear fuel market– Reload core, fuel components supplier
Nuclear Export – Korean Dream(2)
• Research reactor market– Turnkey, replacement LEU fuel, service
• Nuclear medicine market– Cancer diagnosis/treatment, medical
cyclotron
• Expert consulting service– IAEA peer review missions, etc.
Light/dark contrast in the Peninsula
Summary
• New window of opportunity for major NW disarmament
• Day and night contrast in Korean peninsula, caused by nuclear– NK nuclear issue – the Achilles tendon
• Global nuclear Renaissance is coming
• Korean opportunities from experts to exports