V. Ryabinin

15.10.2008, GCOS SC-16, Geneva

International Polar Year Legacy and the Global Cryosphere Watch

Vladimir Ryabinin (JPS for WCRP)

on behalf of Ed Sarukhanian (IPY) and Barry Goodison (GCW)

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Station Princess Elisabeth in Antarctica, 70oS, 23oE (Courtesy IPF, Belgium)

IPY20072008

Expertise, equipment, logistics and funds have been contributed by Canada, Denmark, EU, France, Germany, Japan, Norway, Poland, USA, Russia and the UK.

IPY20072008

CASO Hydrographic Sections: foundation for SOOS

IPY20072008

IPY20072008 Increase in the number

of reports on the GTS

WWW monitoring from 1 to 15 July 2007 (comparison with the same period of 2006):

in the Arctic: + 8 synoptic stations reporting at 90-100% level on the coast and islands of the Euro-Asian sector;

in the Antarctic: + 2 synoptic stations and new upper-air station Concordia;

in the Arctic Ocean: + 1000 BUOY reports;

in the Southern Ocean: 18 000 (five times more) BUOY reports, & there is an increase in the number of TESAC reports (+39).

IPY20072008

Advances in the establishment of an Arctic hydrological cycle observing system and advances in polar hydrology

IPY Project 104: The Arctic Hydrological Cycle

Monitoring, Modelling and Assessment Program

(Arctic-HYDRA)

Arctic-HYDRA promotes a fully pan-Arctic perspective for its IPY water studies

http://www.arcticportal.org/arctichydra

IPY20072008

A strong step forward in permafrost monitoring

IPY Project 50: Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP)

www.ipa-permafrost.org

Timeline of current and future satellites. The blue section highlights the interval of the International Polar Year 2007-2008.

First Virtual Satellite Constellation under the umbrella of the Global Interagency IPY Polar Snapshot Year (GIIPSY) proposed by CliC and the IGOS Theme on Cryosphere. It involves all major satellite agencies and has the emphasis on the Synthetic Aperture Radar sensors.

http://bprc.osu.edu/rsl/GIIPSY/

IPY20072008 Sub-Committee on IPY Observations has developed

a draft roadmap towards IPY observing systems legacy.

Main observing initiatives contributing to the creation of an IPY Legacy

• Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON), with an Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System

(iAOOS), Arctic-HYCOS, and Integrated AON• Pan-Antarctic Observing System (PAntOS),

with a Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS), • The Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW),• Polar Satellite Constellation,• Polar Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF)

IPY20072008 Contribution of the IPY legacy

observing initiatives to WIGOS• Atmosphere: SAON, PAntOS, PCOF & Polar Satellite Constellation

-> WWW/GOS, GCOS;

• Hydrology: Arctic HYCOS -> WHYCOS, GCOS/GTOS

• Ocean: iAOOS and SOOS -> polar GOOS;

• Cryosphere: GCW and Polar Satellite Constellation -> GOOS (sea ice), GTOS (the hydrological cycle, permafrost, ice sheets, glaciers), and GCOS as a whole.

IPY20072008 New coordination bodies

able to contribute to the creation of IPY legacy:

WMO EC Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services

Joint Bipolar Action Group of IASC and SCAR

IPY20072008 International Polar Decade -

an opportunity to secure IPY legacy

WMO EC-LX (June 2008), - recognized the unique opportunity for WMO in consultation

with ICSU and other international organizations to consider launch of an International Polar Decade as long-term process of research and observations in Polar Regions to meet requirements of climate change studies and prediction to benefit societal needs.

IPY20072008

IPY data management activities • One of the main problems in the IPY implementation

is absence of a support system for quick, easy and reliable identification of and access to IPY data, as well as of a formal pathway for IPY scientists to archive their data and metadata for future studies.

• The WMO EC-LX (June, 2008) expressed appreciation for

the IPY Joint Committee’s proposal to use the Canadian ArcticNet portal and its associated searchable metadata engine as an IPY portal, with partial funding offered by Canada. The Council considered the IPY data portal as being relevant to WIS and requested that it should be developed as a WIS pilot project fully compliant with the WIS standards.

“The 15th WMO Congress (May 2007) welcomed the proposal of Canada that WMO will create a Global Cryosphere Watch which would be an important component of the IPY legacy. Congress requested the WMO Inter-commission Task Group on IPY to establish an ad-hoc expert group to explore the possibility of creation of such global system and prepare recommendations for its development.”

Global Cryosphere Watch-A WMO Initiative

Legacy of CliC in the area of observations

The cryosphere collectively describes elements of the earth system containing water in its frozen state and includes:

sea ice, icebergs, lake and river ice, snow cover, solid precipitation, glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, ice shelves, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground.

The cryosphere exists at all latitudes and in about one hundred countries.We do not consider ice phase in clouds.

Considerations

• IPY 2007-2008 identified Shrinking Snow and Ice: Rapid Changes in Polar Regions as the first of four key issues requiring urgent attention of polar science community;• IPCC WG 1 and 2 reports highlighted for first time the importance of the cryosphere, large observed changes of some elements of global cryosphere and potential impacts on societies and countries; • ACIA and ICARPII identified the cryosphere as a critical element in monitoring and understanding changes in the Arctic System; • cryosphere is an integrative element within climate system and a sensitive and robust indicator of climate change; • 2004-2007: the development of the conceptual framework for the cryospheric observations through the IGOS Theme on Cryosphere (approved May 2007).

GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH:research, observation, monitoring,

assessment, product development and predictionMission:• implement the IGOS Cryosphere Theme (CryOS);• support reliable, comprehensive observations of the elements of

the cryosphere through an integrated observing approach on global and regional scales, in collaboration with relevant national and international programmes and agencies;

• provide the scientific community with the means to predict the future state of the cryosphere;

• facilitate assessment of changes in the cryosphere and their impact, and to use this information to aid the detection of climate change, support decision making and environmental policy development;

• provide authoritative information on the current state and projected fate of the cryosphere for use by the media, public, decision and policy makers.

Example:Snow Water Equivalent

SWE derived from AMSR-E for Western Canada

Issues for GCW? • evaluation of the product• how consistent is the derived SWE• evaluation of the algorithms• transferability of algorithms• usefulness of the product• sustainability of product development and production• when will this product be ready to transfer from research to operations

Comparison of Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Sept 27 2008NERSC (Arctic ROOS) vs NSIDC

Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder

5.00E+06

1.00E+07

1.50E+07

2.00E+07

2.50E+07

3.00E+07

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Area

Mel

ted

(km

2 )

Year

Total Melt AreaApril - October

20021998

19951991

1992

1996

2005

1987

1983

2007

199 6

1998

Greenland Total Melt Area 1979-2007:2007 value exceeds last maximum by 10 %

GIIPSY

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Sea

Lev

el R

ise

(mm

)

1.22

0.13

0.26

0.9

1.8

0.18

0.5

1.12

2.2

0.44

0.66

1.12

SourceIP C C 2007: 1993 - 2003M eier 2007: 2000 - 2005G race 2008: 2007

Tota l Antarc ica G reenland G laciers

Cryospheric Sea Level Rise

Global Cryosphere Watch - Initial Concept

• GCW will contribute to WMO’s integrated observing and information systems and to the Global Climate Observing System network (like GAW does). It is envisioned to include a network of stations, CryoNET, working on a coherent agreed program on monitoring of changes in all components of the cryosphere, producing valuable long-term records, covering key areas of the globe with cryospheric observations. • It will be an intergovernmental mechanism for supporting key cryospheric in-situ and remote-sensing observations - while implementing the recommendations of the IGOS Cryosphere Theme. • GCW will work with, and build on, existing programs such as the GTN-G, GTN-P, GTN-H, and work with external partners such as space agencies and World Data Centers for Glaciology. • GCW addresses virtually all of the 11 expected results of the WMO Strategic Plan and requires an input and synergistic work of most of the WMO Technical Commissions (e.g. CBS, CIMO, CHy, CCl, JCOMM) and several WMO Programmes, and could provide an ideal test-bed for a WIGOS/WIS pilot project. • Initially, GCW is to be located within the Research Department, similar to GAW, but with the clear understanding of working with the other departments.

GCW Data Layers – IGOSsatellite, in situ, operational products, reanalyses, research datasets…

GCW Thematic Centers snow, sea ice, freshwater ice, frozen ground

and permafrost, land ice

GCW Regional Centers

regional cryosphere products

GCW Information Layerportal, anomaly tracking, hot-spots, variability and change (past, present, future),

global and regional products

A conceptual model of the elements of a Global Cryosphere Watch

GCW roles• Enhance data sharing and

coordination e.g. CryOS• Trouble shooter

GCW roles• Determine key products

and information• Validate products

• Promote R&D transfer to operational centers

• Science assessment

GCW roles• Provide authoritative one-

stop shop for real-time information on the state of

the global cryosphere• Provide integrated

assessment of climate-cryosphere change

User Communities

• public• education• science assessment• public security• impacts and adaptation• research• operations

Consultation

Response has been enthusiastic to date and the need for an integrated view of the cryosphere has been emphasized, building on and integrating what may be done currently. It has also been noted that for GCW to be successful, countries and agencies must first demonstrate the importance of the cryosphere to national and/or regional issues, and then how it will contribute to our understanding at the global scale.

• Key North American cryosphere scientists from NMHS’s, academia and other agencies (users and providers of Cryospheric data and information) at the 2007 Joint Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society/American Meteorological Society Polar Meteorology and Eastern Snow Conference

• GCOS Secretariat and Executive• TOPC – endorse GCW• WMO Secretariat from World Climate Program, World Climate Research Programme, Hydrology

and Water Resources Department, Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme, • CliC (Climate and Cryosphere) Science Steering Group• CLIVAR Science Steering Group• Sustained Arctic Observing Networks Workshop• International Permafrost Association• GEO Secretariat• IPY Joint Committee• Asia-CliC 2nd Conference• US National Snow and Ice Data Center• Polar CLIPS• Canadian cryosphere community (Sep 30)• GCOS-16 (October)• International Ice Chart Working Group (October)

Status of works

• Dr. Barry Goodison has been seconded to WMO by the Environment Canada (1 Sep 2008 to mid-March 2009).

• Environment Canada has released some funds from a WMO Trust Fund to support GCW related travel and meetings.

• Consultation within and outside WMO has been initiated.• An ad hoc expert team is being established to prepare a scoping

document to define the feasibility of developing and implementing a Global Cryosphere Watch within WMO.

V. Ryabinin

15.10.2008, GCOS SC-16, Geneva

GCOS SC is invited to 1) note the major pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic observing initiatives aimed at securing the legacy of IPY and endorse them as a contribution to GCOS.2) support the idea of exploring an International Polar Decade as a means of facilitating more sustainable observations in Polar Regions.3) express support to consideration of the development of an IPY data portal as a WIS pilot project.4) note the establishment of the WMO EC Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services, and, start identifying areas of cooperation and coordination between GCOS and Panel are required.5) endorse GCW as the mechanism for integrating cryospheric observations drawing on the work of GTOS, GCOS and GOOS, and 6) identify an expert to join the ad-hoc expert team developing the scoping study for GCW.