International Museum Membership Conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing...

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International Museum Membership Conference: How Cutting-Edge Data Analytics Can Revolutionize Your Membership Program Presented November 9, 2015 Avalon Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved, 2015 Avalonconsulting.net

Transcript of International Museum Membership Conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing...

Page 1: International Museum Membership Conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing strategy. Learn how to recognize how underlying trends have changed over time, and

1Cover Page

International Museum Membership Conference:How Cutting-Edge Data Analytics Can Revolutionize Your Membership ProgramPresented November 9, 2015

Avalon Consulting Group, Inc.All rights reserved, 2015Avalonconsulting.net

Page 2: International Museum Membership Conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing strategy. Learn how to recognize how underlying trends have changed over time, and

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Here with you today…

David Saunders – Director of Membership – National Museum of the American Indian

NMAI is committed to advancing the knowledge and understanding of the Native cultures of the Western Hemisphere, past, present, and future, through partnership with Native people and others. The museum works to support the continuance of culture, traditional values, and transitions in contemporary Native life.

Edison Wato – Director of Membership – National Museum of African American History and Culture

The National Museum of African American History and Culture will be a place where all Americans can learn about the richness and diversity of the African American experience, what it means to their lives and how it helped us shape this nation. A place that transcends the boundaries of race and culture that divide us, and becomes a lens into a story that unites us all. Scheduled to open in fall 2016, the museum is under construction on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., on a five-acre tract adjacent to the Washington Monument.

Allison Porter – President – Avalon Consulting Group Avalon is a full-service direct marketing fundraising agency. Since 1997, Avalon has

helped our clients raise millions of dollars to achieve their visions for a better world—while building relationships with people who share their passion and support their important causes.

Page 3: International Museum Membership Conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing strategy. Learn how to recognize how underlying trends have changed over time, and

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In today’s session…

Through actual examples, learn critical ways to view your donor and member

data to inform your marketing strategy.

Learn how to recognize how underlying trends

have changed over time, and how they vary by

organization and strategy.

Identify key metrics and performance indicators

that are relevant for comparison, and what

those comparisons tell you about the health of your file.

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What are key performance trends?

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Comparing key metrics and critical analytical views will give you a deeper view into the health, future performance, and potential of your member file.

Retention List return on investment

File composition

File trajectory and impact of

acquisition

Member value

Cross channel analysis

Major donor pipeline

Metrics should be compared over time, and to other organizations, when evaluating their significance.

Page 6: International Museum Membership Conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing strategy. Learn how to recognize how underlying trends have changed over time, and

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Case Studies

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National Museum of the American Indian

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Situational Analysis:

• Membership program established in 1991 as part of the museum’s capital campaign to open the Cultural Resources Center andthe Museum on the National Mall.

• The museum opened in Sept 2004.• Current membership of 40,000 households

nationwide.• 70% of members live outside the DC and NYC

metropolitan areas.• Members and revenue increased dramatically

through the opening of the museum, and then experienced a sharp decline. NMAI has been hard at work to stabilize the program since this time.

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$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thou

sand

s

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

After the museum opening, NMAI experienced a decline in revenue both due to the event and a decrease in acquisition investment. Also, effects of 9/11 on DM industry.

• This view shows the impact of acquisition year over year.

Museum Opening

Key Trend #1:

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

New Joins

Direct Mail Web Email

Reinvestment

After reduced acquisition, NMAI strategically reinvested in direct mail to rebuild the file.

Key Trend #3:

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This investment has paid off – revenue has started to grow after years of decline.

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ions

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Join Year

Growth: 8% Growth: 2%

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Key Trend #3: After reinvesting in acquisition, NMAI has seen a subsequent decline in first-year retention.

• This is not an atypical trend but it is one that will be watched closely. Retention should be reviewed frequently to recognize potential issues as soon as possible.

55.0%

70.5%65.8%

27.0%23.2%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14Overall Overall w/Reinstates Multi-Year First-Year

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NMAI has used cross-channel views to identify trends by channel and diversify revenue since the museum opening.

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Thou

sand

s

Mail TM Web Email

Key Trend #4:

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Key Trend #5: Members giving through multiple channels show higher income per member.

$78.52 $73.80 $70.90$62.76

$56.70 $55.10

DM, TM, Weband Email

DM and Email DM, TM andWeb

DM and Web DM and TM DM Only

Income/Member

Key Trend #5:

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Moving forward:

• NMAI will continue to build on current progress through added investment.

• As the program grows, regular review of metrics like retention are key to maintaining file health.

• NMAI continues to explore options to increase multi-channel giving and build value within the current file.

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National Museum of African American History and Culture

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Situational Analysis:

• Program established in Sept 2009 tobuild a membership base to support planned museum opening in fall 2016.

• NMAAHC has grown dramatically since that time, reaching a high point of 42,821 active members in July 2015.

• The program will continue to grow through the September 2016 opening.

• Maintaining a strong and stable base of membership support beyond 2016 is a priority for the new museum.

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NMAAHC’s membership program has increased steadily since the inception of the program.

• Steady and generally increasing acquisition investment has allowed the program to grow year over year.

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ions

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

Key Trend #1:

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0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15Multi-Year Single-Year

For a start up program, increasing the ratio of multi-year to single-year members is a key goal.

• NMAAHC now has more multi-year members than single-year members and has continued to build year over year.

Key Trend #2:

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0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600%

NAACP Leg Def & Ed Fund

AICR AFRICAN AMERICAN CONTRIBUTORS

Multibuyers

National Museum of the American Indian

NAACP

Sierra Club

Negro Leagues Baseball Museum

Native American Rights Fund

Common Cause

Environmental Defense Fund

Wash Spectator

American Heart Assn

African American Democratic Contributors

League of Women Voters

African American High $ Democrats

Black Literary Club

Black Tie Democrats

Key Analysis: List Return on Investment Assessment

• Because upfront performance and long-term value are not always aligned, NMAAHC utilizes return on investment by acquisition list to strategically build the membership program.

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-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Poster PR

Slavery PR

Plypak PR

Survey PR

Bookmark PR OSE Test

Bookmark PR

Key Analysis: Acquisition Package Return on Investment

• NMAAHC has tested a number of acquisition packages during the program start up. Assessing long-term value allows NMAAHC to better make decisions about the growth of the program.

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$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160

Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Using key analytical tools for guidance, NMAAHC has gradually increased member value since the start of the program.

• Member value by 4-5 years is strong compared to other organizations.

Key Trend #3:

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• NMAAHC is using forecasting to predict the trajectory of the file and anticipate future changes. Based on this analysis, investment strategies will be outlined to guide the program.

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue

Museum opening end of FY16

ME

MB

ER

S

RE

VE

NU

E

Key Analysis: Long-range forecasting to predict future trends

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Moving forward:

• NMAAHC will continue to watch key performance trends as the file continues to grow.

• Using analytics, NMAAHC has an opportunity to anticipate and address future trends to maintain stability during the volatile window after the museum’s opening.

• NMAAHC will be focusing on member retention strategies to preserve the strong base of the program after the opening of the museum.

Page 25: International Museum Membership Conference · your donor and member data to inform your marketing strategy. Learn how to recognize how underlying trends have changed over time, and

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Friends of Smithsonian

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Situational Analysis:

• Friends of Smithsonian is a mature androbust membership program with a member history that stretches to before1990.

• Currently, there are nearly 80,000 active Friends.• After years of growth, the program has been

steady in recent years. FOS has developed a structured “donor track” to help reinvigorate the file.

• The Friends program is actively seeking ways to return to a pattern of growth through increased acquisition of both members and donors.

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Based on current acquisition levels, the program is expected to decline through 2016.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

new

reactivating

2nd year

continuing

Projected

Key Trend #1:

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FOS has implemented a structured donor program to drive more supporters into the program and offset member decline.

• The donor program has increased dramatically since 2012.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15Single-Year Members Single-Year Donors

Key Trend #2:

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 ‐

 1,000

 2,000

 3,000

 4,000

 5,000

 6,000

 7,000

 8,000

 9,000

 10,000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

new

reactivating

2nd year

continuing

Projected

The donor program is projected to increase, in line with the current trend.

• Predictions of file trajectory are crucial in guiding decisions around acquisition investment.

Key Trend #3:

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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

Year 1

Year 5DonorsMembers

Members vs. Donors - $50 level

Long-term value analysis indicates that members are still worth far more than donors, but these metrics should come more in line as the program evolves.

• FOS will continue to monitor this trend with ongoing analysis.

Key Trend #4:

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Strong and improving first-year retention metrics indicate that added acquisition investment can be sustained.

52.7% 51.5% 49.0% 46.8%

54.2% 52.4% 52.9% 53.4% 56.2% 53.7%

19.5% 21.1% 22.5%17.9% 17.3% 17.5% 14.9%

19.9%25.5%

30.4%

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14Members Donors

Key Trend #5:

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The Friends program also has a strong feeder track to major gifts. Upgrading is a priority and is closely analyzed.

• 44% of $1,000+ multi-gift Friends started with a first gift below $75. 70% started with a gift below $150.

44%

26%4%

6%5% 16%

<$75 $75-149 $150-249 $250-499 $500-999 $1,000+

Key Trend #6:

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Moving forward:

• With the goal of stability and then growth, the Friends program will use this analysis and more to project future trends and inform decision making.

• Strong donor-level metrics (retention, long-term value) indicate added investment is wise and will return quickly.

• Regular (quarterly and annual) review of key performance metrics allows FOS to keep tabs on key trends and changes as the new donor program evolves.

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Wrap Up

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Quarterly and annual oversight of key metrics

through dashboards and full file analysis.

Identification of

changing performanc

e trends.

Continuous goal

evaluation, resetting,

and forecasting.

Education and

reporting to leadership.

REPEAT.

How do you do this for your program?

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Questions?

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How Cutting-Edge Data Analytics Can Revolutionize Your Membership Program

David SaundersDirector of MembershipNational Museum of the American [email protected]

Edison WatoMembership Program Manager National Museum of African American History and [email protected]

Allison PorterPresidentAvalon Consulting [email protected] x 102