INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE The Energy Mix for a Sustainable...
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Transcript of INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE The Energy Mix for a Sustainable...
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The Energy Mix for a The Energy Mix for a Sustainable FutureSustainable Future
Claude MandilClaude MandilExecutive Director Executive Director
International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency
World Bank Energy Week World Bank Energy Week Washington, 7 March Washington, 7 March 20062006
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Business-as-usual ScenarioBusiness-as-usual Scenario
Based on current trends global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030Based on current trends global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030
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Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear power
Other renewables
Hydropower
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
This is NotSustainable!
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Oil Exports to Key Demand CentersOil Exports to Key Demand Centers
All the key oil demand centers will become more dependent on imports as All the key oil demand centers will become more dependent on imports as the Middle East and North Africa plays an increasing role in global supplythe Middle East and North Africa plays an increasing role in global supply
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OECD North America
OECD Europe OECD Pacific IndiaChina Other Asia
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OECD North America
OECD Europe OECD Pacific IndiaChina Other AsiaOECD North America
OECD Europe OECD Pacific IndiaChina Other Asia
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020scountries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s
World Energy-Related CO2 EmissionsWorld Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
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OECD Transition economies Developing countries
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OECD Transition economies Developing countries
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Electricity DeprivationElectricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still beIn 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity1.4 billion people without electricity
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction
with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“
-- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global COGlobal CO2 2 Emissions in the Reference Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios& Alternative Scenarios
Policies that governments are already considering – but have not Policies that governments are already considering – but have not yet enacted yet enacted –– would cut would cut COCO22 emissions by 16% in 2030 emissions by 16% in 2030
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Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
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Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions:Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions:Coal Fired Electricity Generation in ChinaCoal Fired Electricity Generation in China
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Japan 2003 Average Best AvailableTechnology
WEO 2004 ReferenceScenario for 2030
ACT Scenario for2050
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Coal consumption per kWh for coal-based generation relative to 2003 level
CO2 emissions per kWh from coal based generation relative to 2003 level
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of COAvoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO22 per Year per Year
CoalCoal Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..
Wind Install 200 x current US wind generation
Solar PV Install 1300 x current US solar generation
CO2 Sequestration Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants
Nuclear Build 150 1-GW power plants
Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004
Efficient Lighting Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key MessagesKey MessagesThere is no single solution for a sustainable There is no single solution for a sustainable
energy futureenergy futureA broad portfolio is needed A broad portfolio is needed but some features are but some features are
clear:clear:Energy Efficiency … available now at low or no
cost !Natural Gas, Coal … with CO2 capture & storage Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costsNuclear.… with safe waste management H2 & Fuel Cells … with lower costFusion … maybe, in the very long term