International Conference on CCS: Session 3.4 - Mr. Nakicenovic Nebojsa

NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx

Technische Universität WienTechnische Universität Wien [email protected]

Global Energy Perspectives Global Energy Perspectives and the Role of CCSand the Role of CCS

International Carbon Capture and Storage Conference, Jointly Organized International Carbon Capture and Storage Conference, Jointly Organized by NDRC and ADB, China World Hotel, Beijing – 28-29 July 2011by NDRC and ADB, China World Hotel, Beijing – 28-29 July 2011

mailto:[email protected]

IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Confronting the Challenges of Energy forConfronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development:

The Role of Scientific and Technical AnalysisThe Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis

and its international partners presentand its international partners present

www.www.GlobalEnergyAssessmentGlobalEnergyAssessment.org.org

#3

Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)

Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits

Energy transformations require R&D and technology diffusion & sustained investments

Global Energy Transformations

Global Carbon Pools Based on GEAGlobal Carbon Pools Based on GEA

14

Gas Hydrates~6,600 – 57,000

GtCO2

Gas Hydrates~100,000

GtCO2

Coal~ 29,000 – 43,000 GtCO2

Unconv. . Oil~1,100–1,500

GtCO2

N. Gas~340–500

GtCO2

Oil ~660–1,000

GtCO2

Soils~10,000 GtCO2

Atmosphere~3100 GtCO2

Unconventional Natural Gas

~2,450 – 4,550 GtCO2

Biomass~1,600–

1,650GtCO2

#5





#6

Global Carbon EmissionsGlobal Carbon Emissions

Peak by 2020

reductions of 35-75% by 2050

almost zero or negative in the long term

#71850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Microchip

Commercialaviation

TelevisionVacuum

tubeGasolineengine

Electricmotor

Steam engine

Nuclearenergy

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclearNuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energy

#81850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000


Microchip

Commercialaviation

TelevisionVacuum

tubeGasolineengine

Electricmotor

Steam engine

Nuclearenergy

Biomass

Coal


Oil

Gas

Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyEfficiency – High Nuclear

Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

PAS

#91850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000


Microchip

Commercialaviation

TelevisionVacuum

tubeGasolineengine

Electricmotor

Steam engine

Nuclearenergy

Biomass

Coal


Oil

Gas

Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyEfficiency – Low Nuclear

Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

PAS

#10

2500GEA-Efficiency

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Pri

mary

Energ

y, EJ per

year

0

500

1000

1500

2000Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)

Fossil CCS (bridging technology)

Bio-CCS & negative emissions (long-term)

Phase-out of oil in the medium term(necessary)

Coal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS

NuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOil

SavingsGeothermalSolarWind

Efficiency & “Smart” SystemsEfficiency & “Smart” Systems(= high flexibility for supply)(= high flexibility for supply)

~50% renewables by 2050

No expansion of nuclear (choice)

Source: Riahi, GEA

#11

Fossil and Bio CCSFossil and Bio CCS

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

GtCO

2 Fossil CCS

bio-CCS

Median and 85th percentile rangeSource: Riahi, GEA

#12

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Cum

ula

tive

carb

on s

tore

d (G

tCO

2)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Sup

ply

Mix

Effi

cie

ncy

Carbon Capture and StorageCarbon Capture and Storage GEA scenarios: World (GtCOGEA scenarios: World (GtCO22))

Commercialization (2030)

rapid upscaling (2050)

Max ~ 2500 GtCO2

Transformation possible without CCS (however, needs strong efficiency focus!)

Atmosphere

Source: Riahi, GEA

#13

CCS Potentials & Deployment

0

100

200

300

400

500

Gt C

O2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2

Potential - Best

Potential - High

Fossil CCS - Mimimum

Fossil CCS - Maximum

Bio CCS - Minimum

Bio CCS - Maximum

Storage potential: Hendricks, 2004Prosperity map: Bradshaw, 2005

2030

#14

0

100

200

300

400

500

Gt C

O2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2

Potential - Best

Potential - High



Bio CCS - Minimum

Bio CCS - Maximum


2050


#15

0

100

200

300

400

500

Gt C

O2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2

Potential - Best

Potential - High



Bio CCS - Minimum

Bio CCS - Maximum


2100


#16

0

100

200

300

400

500

Gt C

O2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2

Potential - Best

Potential - High



Bio CCS - Minimum

Bio CCS - Maximum


2100


1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

FF

19

98

/kWUS

$2

00

5/k

W

Cumulative GW installed

US Nuclear: Average and Minimum/Maximum 1971-1996

US Nuclear: Single Reactor (No Range) 1971-1996

France Nuclear: Average and Min/Max 1977-1999

Solar PV: worldwide average 1975-2009 US$2005/kW

Offshore wind: all European projects 1999-2008 US$2005/kW

Source: Gruebler, GEA

Investment CostsPhotovoltaics, Offshore Wind and Nuclear

18

Oil Gas

Coal

Electricity Transmission

Fossil ElectricityNuclear

Renewable Electricity

Other conversion

2050

Today($185 billion)

No Sustainability Policies($370 billion)

2005-2010

Oil

Gas

Coal


Fossil Electricity

Nuclear


Other conversion

2010 & 2050Investment Portfolio – China

19Source: GEA

Efficiency(marginal)

OilGasCoal


Fossil Electricity


CCS

Other conversion

Oil Gas

Coal




Other conversion

2005-2010

20502050

Oil

Gas

Coal


Fossil Electricity

Nuclear


Other conversion

Today($185 billion)


GEA-Efficiency($407 billion)


20Source: GEA

Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

Industrialized55%

Developing45%Demand (Energy

components)

Oil

Gas

Coal

Electricity Transmission/Distr.

Fossil Electricity

NuclearRenewable Electricity

Other conversion

Upstream:Fossil Fuels 30%

Electricity 40%

$1250 billion (including demand)World Energy Investments 2010

23Source: GEA

Efficiency(marginal)

Oil

Gas

Coal


Fossil Electricity

Nuclear


CCS

Other conversion

Oil Gas

Coal




Other conversion

2050 2050

Today($185 billion)


GEA-Supply($530 billion)

2005-2010

Oil

Gas

Coal


Fossil Electricity

Nuclear


Other conversion


24Source: GEA

#25

COCO22 Removal Removal Fossil CCS + Bio CSS + ForestsFossil CCS + Bio CSS + Forests

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

MtC

O2

Afforestation/reforestation

Biomass to H2

Bio-liquids2

Bio-liquids1

Biomass Gasification (Power)

Biomass Power (post combustion)

Industry (cement)

Gas to liquids

SMR (natural gas)

Gas Combined Cycle

Gas Power

Coal to liquids

Coal gasification + H2

Coal IGCC (power)

Coal post combustion (power)

Coal power (retrofit)

Source: Riahi, GEA

#26

Biomass potential vs deploymentBiomass potential vs deploymentlong term (2100)long term (2100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Do

rnb

urg

(20

10

)

IIA

SA (2

00

7)

van

Vu

ure

n (

20

08

)

IIA

SA (2

00

7)

GEA

(2

01

1)

IIA

SA (2

00

7)

GEA

(2

01

1)

EJ

Biomass potential

Biomass use(stringent CC scenarios)

Biomass CCS(stringent CC scenarios)S

cena

rio

unce

rtai

nty

residues*

Pro

duct

ivity

Deg

rada

tion

Sus

tain

abili

tycr

iteria

* 40 EJ residues from Fisher et al (2007) added in GEA

#27

Data: NASA 1880-2010

Earth is Warming

Global warming predicted(Sawyer, Nature 1972,

Broecker, Science 1975)

International Conference on CCS: Session 3.4 - Mr. Nakicenovic Nebojsa

Documents

Transcript of International Conference on CCS: Session 3.4 - Mr. Nakicenovic Nebojsa