International Centre for Research on the Environment and...

Website: www.icre8.eu

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International Centre for Research on the Environment and the Economy- ICRE8

International Center for the Environment and the Economy, www.icre8.eu

} International Centre focused on Interdisciplinary Research on:Environment Economy

Energy Eco-innovations +electronic versions (hence E8)

Founder and Scientific Director: Phoebe Koundourihttp://www.icre8.eu/founder-scientific-director

Strategic Management Board: Prof. Bateman, Prof. Chichilnisky, Prof. Dasgupta, Prof. Gollier, Prof. Hasapis, Prof. Koundouri, Prof. Markandya, Dr. Tsichritzis.

http://www.icre8.eu/strategic-planning-board

Scientific Collaborators: 40 core researchers at ICRE8 premises in Athens, network 90 established researchers (Europe, USA, Asia, Australia)

http://www.icre8.eu/scientific-collaborators


ICRE8 Departments

• SustainableDevelopmentSolutionsNetwork(SDSN-Greece)

• EconomicandEconometricModelling

• NaturalCapitalValuationandCost-BenefitAnalysis

• IntegratedResourceandEnergyManagement:DecisionSupportSystems

• StakeholdersAnalysis,ForesightMethodology&e-planning


ICRE8’s History: ReSEES Team

ReSEES: Research team on Socio-Economic & Environmental Sustainability is an umbrella for all the Research Projects, Scientific Publications, and Scientific, Policy and Social Impact, produced by an interdisciplinary and international research team led by Prof. Phoebe Koundouri over the last 20 years.Website: http://www.aueb.gr/users/koundouri/resees/resees.html

Since 1996 ReSEES achieved:- 20 million euros of research funding- Collaborators:150 Universities/Research Institutions & 500 researchers- 200 published peer-reviewed research papers and books- Geographical distribution: Europe, US, Latin America, Africa, Asia, Australia- ReSEES influenced policy & attracted mass media coverage all over the world

*ReSEEScontinues tofunction asaResearchCenterattheAthensUniversityofEconomicsandBusiness,GREECEandcollaboratescloselywithICRE8.Prof.Koundouri istheScientificDirectorofboth Institutions.


Athena Research and Innovation Center

Athens University of Economics and Business: ReSEESACE Innovation Incubator

University of Athens:ABEESSBehavioral and Experimental Economics Lap

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki:School of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering

ICRE8’s Cluster of Greek Collaborators


CSERGE: Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, UK

Environmental Hydraulics Institute "IH Cantabria"Offshore Engineering and Ocean Energy Group, SPAIN

Ludwig-Maximilians University (LMU)Faculty of Geosciences, Department of of Geography, GERMANY

Statera, Research & Practice Centre for Sustainability andRegional Development, ESTONIA

BEF, Balkan Economic Forum, GREECE

EEDMI, İTÜ Deprem Mühendisliği ve Afet Yönetimi Enstitüsü, TURKEY

ICRE8’s Cluster of European Collaborators


ICRE8’s Cluster of Asian Collaborators

Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham Amrita School of Business, INDIA

Center of Economic and Development Studies, Padjadjaran University, INDONESIA.

Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia, SOUTHEAST ASIA


STAGES OF ANALYSIS:–Natural Resources, Socio-Economic, Institutional Characterization–Mathematical Foundations & Modelling–Empirical/Econometric Models–Data Collection (revealed/stated preference data)–Empirical Models Application & Estimation–Analysis of Results–Policy Recommendations

RESEARCH FOCUS: Research towards achieving Natural Resources, Economic, Social Sustainability: Structured and Methodologically Sound Approach to recognizing, demonstrating and capturing the Total Economic Value of public goods and services, integrating them in Long-Run Cost Benefit Analysis, to inform sound and sustainable management tools and policy making, while recognizing the interdisciplinary nature of the challenge.


A layman's introduction to ICRE8’s framework of analysis

Sustainable Rotations

Self-destructing Rotations


2030 Agenda for Sustainable DevelopmentAdopted 193 Heads of StateUN Summit, New York, September 2015

Development that meets human needs NOW while preserving the environmentso that future generations can meet their own needs.


Natural Resources, Environmental and Energy Economics?

Economics?

Allocation of scarce stocks & flows across peopleover time and spacein a way that social welfare is maximized.


Social Welfare is Maximized When Value is Maximized

12

Value of what? Value of Ecosystem Services


MarketInteraction MakesValueExplicit

Price

Quantity0

Demand

Supply

Q*


Price should mirror Value


WeneedforEACH• Resource (r)• Individual (i)• Space (s)

• Time (t) from today till

? ? ? ? r,i,s,t

?

t0 t10 t100 t300


ICRE8’s Research Tools include:

• mathematical foundations, economic modeling, econometric analysis• integrated environmental-economic modeling• game theory• non-market valuation• financial analysis, cost-benefits analysis, multi-criteria analysis• risk, uncertainty & ambiguity analysis• geographical information systems• political and institutional analysis• multi-stakeholder mediations techniques• information technology decision making tool development• interdisciplinary approaches

Etc.


Valuation Methods Mathematical Modeling

SurveyEconometric Modeling

Methods to elicit Economic Value non-market Goods & Services


ClimateChangeScenarios(ccs)

Socio-EconomicScenarios(ses)

Time(t)

Deriving Sustainable Development PlansUsing Economic Value to Allocate Resources

t,ccs,sest,ccs,ses

t,ccs,ses

ValuesEconomyTechnologySociety

Nature

International Center for the Environment and the Economy, www.icre8.euMarine and Coastal Management

Inland Water Management

Renewable EnergyClimate Change and Discount Rate

BiodiversityForest ManagementWaste Management

Nuclear Energy


Funded Research- Projectshttp://www.icre8.eu/icre8-projectshttp://www.icre8.eu/resees-ongoing-projectshttp://www.aueb.gr/users/koundouri/resees/projects.html

European Commission-DG Research and InnovationDG Environment


INLAND/COASTAL WATER

§ FP4: Cyprus§ FP5: ARID CLUSTER§ FP5: BioEcon§ FP6: EROLIMPACS§ FP6: AQUASTRESS§ FP7: GENESIS§ FP7: GLOBAQUA

COASTAL WATER§ FP6: IASSON§ FP6:

SESSAME§ FP7: THESUS

MARINE OFFSHORE

§ FP7: MERMAID§ FP7: TROPOS§ FP7: H2OCEAN

WFD MSFD

Floods Directive

ReSEES & ICRE8 Projects and Policy Impact- DG Research and Innovation


ReSEES & ICRE8 Projects- DG Research and InnovationFramework Program 41. CYPRUS: Integrated Water Management in Cyprus: Economic and Institutional FoundationsFramework Program 52. ARID CLUSTER: Strengthening complementarity and exploitation of results of related RTD projects dealing with water resources use and management in arid and semi-arid regions3. BIOdiversity and Economics for CONservationFramework Program 64. EUROLIMPACS: Evaluate Impacts of Global Change on Freshwater Ecosystems5. AQUASTRESS: Solving Water Stress Problems by Integrating New Management, Economic and Institutional Instruments.6. IASSON: Sustainable Development of the Mediterranean and Black Sea Environment7. SESAME. Southern European Seas: Assessing and Modeling the changes in Ecosystems8. e-LUP, Simulating Land Use ProcessesFramework Program 79. GENESIS: Groundwater and dependent Ecosystems: New Scientific basis on climate change and land-use impacts for the update of the EU Groundwater Directive10. THESEUS: Innovative coastal technologies for safer European coasts in a changing climate11. MERMAID: Innovative Multi-purpose Offshore Platforms planning Designing and Operation12. TROPOS: Modular multi-use deep water offshore platform harnessing and servicing Mediterranean, subtropical and tropical marine resources13. OpenAIRE: Open Access to Scientific Information14.. GLOBAQUA: Managing the Effects of Multiple Stressors on Aquatic Ecosystems Under Water Scarcity (2013-2018)- ongoing project


1. SIMRA: Social Innovation in Marginalized Rural AreasBudget: 5.320.410 €2. SMIRES: Science and Management of Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams 3. BRIGAID: BRidges the GAp for Innovations in DisasterResilience. Budget: 7.739.806 €4. DAFNE: Use of a Decision-Analytic Framework to explore the water-energy-food NExus in complex and trans-boundary water resources systems of fast growing developing countries. Budget: 5.320.410 €5. BlueBRIDGE: Building Research environments for fostering Innovation,Decision making, Governance and Education to supportBlue growth. Budget: 5.295.754€6. OpenAire Connect: Configurable tools touseOpenAIRE'sunderlyinge-Infrastructureservices,Budget:1,997,837 €

Currently running ICRE8 Projects DG Research and Innovation, Horizon 2020


Funded Research- ProjectsInternational OrganizationsNational GovernmentsEuropean Commission- DG Environment


Water-Related Projects

Funded by InternationalOrganizations

§ World Bank: Arsenic Contamination, Bangladesh, India

§ World Bank: Water Pricing, China, Bangladesh

§ WWC: Green Water Growth: Egypt, China, Nepal, Australia

§ OECD: Economic Instruments to Protect Freshwater Resources in Lake Baikal Basin.

§ IIED: Integrated WM Methodologies

Funded by National Governments

� Greece Climate Change Review

� UK, EA: Economic Value of Groundwater

� Finland, MoE: Agricultural use of Water and CAP

� Greece, MoE: ASOPOS RB

� Cyprus, MoE: WFD Atrs 5 & 11

� Abu Dhabi, MoE: Economic Valuation of Groundwater

� Namibia, MoE: Groundwater Pricing


Additional Projects• WHO: Assessing Fairness of Greek Health System Financing

• UK Treasury & DEFRA: Discounting for LR CBA• World Bank: Investment Selection Processes and Social Discount Rate (Moldova,

Cyprus, Ukraine)

• DIFID: South Africa: Incentives for Leaded Gasoline

• The impact of REACH on the environment and human health• EU Chemicals Directive: Economic Evaluation

• CYPRUS: Amiantos Mines• GREECE: CBA mining-metallurgical installation Hellas Gold

• Bank of Greece: Report on Climate Change

• The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan: Waste Management• Etc.

International Center for the Environment and the Economy, www.icre8.euInternationalCentreforResearchontheEnvironmentandtheEconomy

Snapshot of selected ongoing projects

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InlandWaterProjectsandEcosystemServices


GENESIS:GroundwaterandDependentEcosystems:NewScientificandTechnologicalBasisforAssessingClimateChange&Land-useImpactsonGroundwater.

TheGENESISproject(Contractnumber:226536)isfundedunderthethematicareaEnvironment(includingClimateChange)oftheSeventhFrameworkProgrammeoftheEuropeanCommunityforresearch,technologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationactivities(2007-2013).

TotalCost: 9.170.600€ECContribution: 6.997.200€Duration:60months(start1.April2009)Consortium:25partnersfrom17countriesProject Coordinator:Prof. Bjørn Kløve, NorwegianInstituteforAgriculturalandEnvironmentalResearch(Bioforsk),NORWAY


GLOBAQUA - Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems with water scarcity.

Budget: €9.990.594

EU Contribution: €7.590.585

Duration: 02/2014 –01/2019

Funding Source: European Commission, 7th FrameworkProgram

Coordinator: CSIC, Spain


Consortium

International Center for the Environment and the Economy, www.icre8.euManaging the effects of multiple stressors onbiodiversity and functioning of aquatic ecosystemshttp://www.globaqua-project.eu, Budget: 10,000,000 euro


GLOBAQUA Objectives

GLOBAQUA is a multipurpose project that aims to: Identify the prevalence, interaction and linkages between stressors in multiple stressor situations, and to assess their effects in the chemical and ecological status

– Water scarcity as a central stressor

– Holistic approach, including water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystems with the effects on socio-economical regional development

– Establish cause-effect relationships using experimental manipulation and integrative modelling


ICRE8’s ROLE

Lead the integration of ecosystems services with socioeconomic analysis.

• COMPLETEDTASKS:economiccharacterizationofcasestudies,constructionofsocioeconomicscenarios.

• NEXT:estimationofeconomicvalueofecosystemservices,suggestionofprogramsofmeasurestoachievetheaimsoftheWFD.


DAFNE – A Decision-Analytic Framework to explore the water-energy-food NExus in complex and transboundary water resources systems of fast growing developing countriesBudget: €5,320,410

Duration: 4 years, 09/2016-09/2020

Funding Source: European Commission, H2020

Coordinator: ETHZ Switzerland

Consortium:, Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI), International Centre for Research on the Environment and the Economy (Icre8), Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KULEUVEN), The University Court of the University of Aberdeen (UABDN), Universitaet Osnabruck (U0), International Water Management Institute (IWMI), African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (ACCESS), Arba Minch University (AMU), University of Zambia (UNZA), Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (EMU), Vista Geowissenschaftliche Fernerkundung GmbH (VISTA-GEO), ATEC-3D Ltd. (ATEC-3D), European Institute for Participatory Media EV (EIPCM).


DAFNE ObjectivesPopulation growth and rising economic prosperity will increase the demand for water-energy-food (WEF) in several African countries, causing deceleration of economic development, geopolitical tensions, and lasting environmental damage.

DAFNE focuses on the WEF nexus in the context of transboundary river basins located in African countries. • The WEF nexus will be quantified and analysed as the trade-off between

conflicting objectives such as hydropower production vs irrigation, land exploitation vs conservation.

• DAFNE addresses issues of integrated water resources management systems for promoting a green economy.

• The project concerns regions where infrastructure development and expanding agriculture have to be balanced with the local social, economic, and environmental dimensions.


ICRE8’s ROLEDevelop modelsof:

– economicdevelopment,– watergovernanceprinciples,– environmentalpolicy,– demographic,culturalandsocialdevelopments

Address:– demographictrends– migration-drivenpopulationdisplacements.

Contributeto:– theunderstandingofstakeholders’perceptionofnaturalresources

– thedevelopmentofspecific,newly-designedpolicies.


SMIRES– Science and Management of Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams

Budget: €300,000

Duration: 4 years, 03/2016-02/2020

Funding Source: EC-DG Research - H2020 COST Action: European Cooperation in Science & Technology


Objectives• Morethanhalfoftheglobalrivernetworkiscomposedofintermittent

riversandephemeralstreams(IRES).• AlthoughIRESsupportauniquehigh-diversity,provideessentialecosystems

servicesandarefunctionallypartofrivernetworksandgroundwatersystems,theylackprotectivemanagement,jeopardizingtheseecosystemsandthewaterresourceattheglobalscale.

• Partners:hydrologists,biogeochemists,ecologists,modellers,environmentaleconomists,socialresearchersandstakeholdersfrom18differentcountriestodeveloparesearchnetworkforimprovingourunderstandingofIRESandtranslatingthisintoascience-based,sustainablemanagementofrivernetworks.

Deliverableswillbeprovidedthrough:- researchworkshops:supportingresearchexchangeandeducatingyoungresearchers- researcher-stakeholderworkshops:translatingimprovedknowledgeintotangibletoolsandguidelines

MARINE Projects


Oceans of tomorrow

Budget: €20.000.000


Duration: 02/2014 –01/2019

Funding Source: EC-DG Research-FP6


OCEAN.2011-1:Multi-useoffshoreplatforms3fundedprojects

Developmentofawind-wavepoweropen-seaplatformequippedforhydrogengenerationwithsupportformultipleusersofenergy

http://www.h2ocean-project.eu/

Innovativemulti-purposeoffshoreplatforms:planning,designandoperation

http://www.mermaidproject.eu/

Modularmulti-usedeepwateroffshoreplatformharnessingandservicingMediterranean,subtropicalandtropicalmarineresources

http://www.troposplatform.eu/


ICRE8MERMAIDOutputs:DSSforlocationandstructureofMOPS:Legal,Policy,Technological,Environmental,EconomicandSocialAspects.

3Books:– Mermaidbook– OceanofTomorrowVol.I– OceanofTomorrowVol.II

2SpecialIssues:- SustainabilityJournal- FrontiersofMarineResearch


BlueBRIDGE: Building Research environments fostering Innovation, Decision making, Governance and Education to support blue growth

Budget: €5.300.000


Duration: 48 months (Sept. 2015- August 2019)

Funding Source: European CommissionH2020 Research and Innovation

Coordinator: CNR, Italy

Website: www.bluebridge-vres.eu


BlueBRIDGEObjectives

Tosupportcapacitybuildingininterdisciplinaryresearchcommunitiesactivelyinvolvedinincreasingthescientificknowledgeof:- themarineenvironment- itslivingresources- itseconomywiththeaimofprovidingabettergroundforinformedadvicetocompetentauthoritiesandtoenlargethespectrumofgrowthopportunitiesasaddressesbytheBlueGrowthsocietalchallenge.


ICRE8’s ROLE

DevelopaSocialCostsBenefitAnalysis(SCBA)inwhichtheTotalEconomicsValueofcostsandbenefitsoffishproductionwillbeidentified,modelled,evaluatedandmonetized.

• CURRENTSTATEOFPROGRESS:Developmentofademandmodelinwhicheconomicandenvironmentalcosts/benefitsenterdirectlyandaffectdemand


Integrated Management Plan for Cyprus Coastal Waters

Funding Source: Govt of Cyprus, Department of EnvironmentCoordinator: ALA PlanningObjectives: Παροχή υπηρεσιών για την ετοιμασία στρατηγικής και σχεδίου δράσης για την ολοκληρωμένη διαχείριση παράκτιων περιοχών για την περίοδο 2018-2028


ICRE8’s ROLE• Aνάλυσηκοινωνικοοικονομικήςκατάστασηςτωνπεριοχώνμελέτης• Μελέτητηςχρήσηςτωνπόρωνκαιτηςαξίαςτωνφυσικώνπόρων

τωνπεριοχώνμελέτηςγιατηνανθρώπινηευημερία• Ενίσχυσησυμμετοχήςτωνενδιαφερομένωνμερώνμέσωτης

διοργάνωσηςομάδωνεργασιών• Καθορισμόςχερσαίουτμήματοςτηςπαράκτιαςζώνηςέπειτααπό

συλλογή,ανάλυση,επεξεργασίακαιδιαχείρισηπληροφοριώνπουάπτονταικοινωνικο-οικονομικώνθεμάτων

• ΕκπόνησηστρατηγικήςκαισύνταξηςτουΣχεδίουΔράσηςγιατηνΟλοκληρωμένηΔιαχείρισητωνΠαράκτιωνΠεριοχώντηςΚύπρουγιατηνπερίοδο2018-2028μέσωτηςχρήσηςτηςμεθόδουανάλυσηκόστους/οφέλουςτωνπροτεινόμενωνμέτρωνπεριβαλλοντικήςδιαχείρισηςστοχεύονταςστηναειφόροανάπτυξη


SocialInclusionProjects


SIMRA: Social Innovation in Marginalised Rural Areas

Budget: € 5,937,203Duration: 48 months (May 2016- May 2020)Funding Source: EC H2020 Consortium James Hutton Institute; ICRE8; University of Padova (UNIPD); BOKU; DLO Foundation; Perth College; Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Science; European Forest Institute; Instituto Agronómico Mediterráneo de Zaragoza (CIHEAM); University of Oulu; Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics, Bundesanstalt für Agrarwirtschaft, AWI; Ostlandsforskning AS; Accademia Europea Per La Ricerca Applicata Ed Il Perfezionamento Professionale Bolzano (Accademia Europea Bolzano); Lancaster University (ULANC); University of Foggia; Cairo University; FAO; EUROMONTANA - European Association of Mountain Areas; Social, Economic, Environment Development Services (SEEDS-int); Foreco Technologies S.L. (FORECO); Rural Development Company; CETIP Network s.r.o; ÖAR Regionalberatung GmbH; Centre Tecnologic Forestal De Catalunya; CDE University of Berne; Schweizerischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft Fuer Die Berggebiete (SAB)

.


SIMRAObjectivesAdvanceunderstandingofsocialinnovationandinnovativegovernanceinAgriculture,Forestry,RuralDevelopmentandboosttheminmarginalizedruralareasacrossEuropeandaroundtheMediterranean,includingnon-EUcountries

Manycasestudiesarerelatedtosustainableruraldevelopment,consumptionandproduction,environmentalmanagementetc.

International Center for the Environment and the Economy, www.icre8.euH2020:IntegratedProject

SocialInnovationinMarginalisedRuralAreas

• To advance understanding of social innovation (SI) and innovative governance in agriculture, forestry and rural development (RD).

• To boost them in marginalised rural areas across Europe, with a focus on the Med region (including non-EU) where there is limited evidence of outcomes and supporting conditions.

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ICRE8’s ROLECollectandanalyzedatafortheAsopos CaseStudy;Developmodelstoassess thevalueofSIforeachactorandtheeconomyasawhole;Engagelocal,regionalandnationalstakeholdersthathaveinterestinAsopos Casestudy

• COMPLETEDTASKS:PreparationofinformationontheAsoposcasestudy,Meetingwithlocalstakeholders,DisseminationActivities(brochuretranslation,websiteannouncements,blogposts).

• NEXT:IdentifyandanalyzeexistingmethodstoassesseconomicvalueaspectsofSIandtheirimpacts,


Open-Access to Scientific Information

EC-DGResearch-FP6Budget:12,000,000

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Open Access evolution in Europe http://vimeo.com/openaire/2014

OpenAIRE is the European online network that makes research output openly accessible to all.

It manages diverse research outputs across all disciplines, promotes and shares the results, effortlessly.

It is all about sharing, reusing andlinking research information.


COSTS

Stakeholders:18NOADsInstrument:CostQuestionnaire

MeasuringTotalCost

BENEFITS

StakeholderAnalysisInstrument:StakeholderQuestionnaire

MeasuringWillingness toEngage

MonetaryValuationofBenefitsInstrument:ChoiceExperiment

(Full-PreferenceRanking)MeasuringWillingness toPay

MethodologyforAssessingOpenAIRE’sSustainability-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SustainableProject:TotalBenefits>TotalCosts

CostBenefitAnalysis

DiscountedNetBenefitsofOpenAIRE(NPV)

RiskAnalysisConfirm

RobustnessofCBA BusinessScenariosSustainableFinancing

ofOpenAIRE


InnovationTechnologyAdoptionandDiffusionProjects


OpenAIRE-Connect: CONNECTing scientific results in support of Open Science

Budget: € 1,997,837Duration: 40 Months (starts January 2017)Funding Source: EC H2020 (EINFRA-2016-1) Coordinator: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) Consortium: Athena RIC (GR), University of Warsaw (PL), Jisc (UK), University Bremen (DE), University of Minho (PT), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), PIN scrl, Servizi Didattici e Scientifici per l’Università di Firenze (IT), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), European Organization for Nuclear Research (CH), ICRE8 (GR) .


OpenAIRE-ConnectObjectivesConfigurabletoolstouseOpenAIRE's underlyinge-Infrastructureservices

• Customaggregateofmetadata/content/usageforliterature,data,software,protocolrepositories

• Linktheircontenttoresearchrelatedentities:funding,people,organizations,...

• Identifylinksamongstresearch(includinghiddeninferences)viacustomizedtextanddataminingservices

• Provideacustomview(portal)withasetoffunctionalitiesincludingsearch,monitoring,statistics,exporting,userclaiming,...


ICRE8’s ROLE

AnSDGE-libraryforGreece

• AnOpenSciencedirectoryofallpast20yearscompletedandongoingresearchpublications,dataandrelatedmodelsrelevanttothe17SDGs

• AdatasourcetowardstheimplementationoftheSDGs

Issuesforconsideration• ExpansiontoMediterraneanregion• Sustainability


BRIGAID:BRIdges the GAp for Innovations

in Disaster Resilience

Coordinator: Ernst Harting, TU DELFT

Duration: 48 months (May 2016- May 2020)

Budget: 7.740.000 €


Conceptualapproachoftheproject


BasicResearchProjects


The Social Discount Rate:The long and the short of it

FundedbyWorldBank,OECD,ScienceFoundations

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Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable: toensure that it meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of future generations to meet theirown needs. WCED, 1987.

There is something awkward about discounting benefitsthat arise a century hence. For even at a modest discount

rate, no investment will look worthwhile. The Economist, 1991.

The socially efficient discount rate The Value of Distant Benefits

Develop an Information Technology Platform, that will allow real-time updating of Country-specific SDRs (short and long-run).

International Center for the Environment and the Economy, www.icre8.euThe Value of Distant Benefits

Discount Rate for CBA, Ramsey Formula extended for Risk & Uncertainty[series of papers with C. Gollier; EP, 2008]

In an Uncertain Environment:- Persistent shocks on the growth rate of consumption- Persistent shocks on short-term interest rates- Persistent shocks on growth expectations, translate into persistent shocks on interest rates

Determine the shape of the term structure of the socially efficient discount rate & imply DDR.

Estimate Theory Consistent DDR trajectory• Using Historical Data•Without Structural Model•Using univariate time series regime switching models:

- describe stochastic dynamics of the real IR - future properties of the IR are determined by its own past behaviour

Information accumulation may transmit patterns of preferences towards Risk & Uncertainty: Influence time preferences & attitudes towards the environment.

As environment becomes more important and current generations care more about the future: DDR for PV of LR effects!


• RISK: probabilities of random events (RE) are known • UNCERTAINTY: probabilities of RE are unknown (different data generating

mechanisms possible true process)• AMBIGUITY: when risk and uncertainty co-exist

• CLIMATE CHANGE: Within CC an analysis of uncertainty is especially important because different studies use different models, different physical parameters and different methodologies. These differences generate alternative probability distribution for possible outcomes.

• Savage: Subjective Expected Utility Framework and Bayesian Updating

• Investigate the mathematical structure of Decision Making under Uncertainty and Ambiguity when states are act-dependent, i.e. the decision maker affects the state-variable (e.g. emissions). How does the incremental uncertainty introduced by the mode of interaction between agents affect the equilibrium and the pace of reaching it in such a setting.

• Test theoretical predictions via Lab Experiments


Climate Change under Uncertainty

•Climate Change under Uncertainty Seminar Series, by Prof. Nikitas Pittis

•Decision Making Under Uncertainty: The Example of Climate Change (AUEB University Funding for Original Research), Koundouri, Pittis, Samartzis

•Climate Change under Uncertainty, Journal: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy (REEP) . Contributors:

ü Koundouri, Pittis, Englezos, Papandreou, Samartzisü Brock, Yiannacopoulos, Xepapadeasü Loic Berger and Massimo Marinacci

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