International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of...

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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities and improving food and energy security Arun B. Shrestha 4th Third Pole Environment Workshop March 2013 Dehradun

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Page 1: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities.

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities and improving food and energy security

Arun B. Shrestha

4th Third Pole Environment WorkshopMarch 2013Dehradun

Page 2: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities.

The “Third Pole”

Largest reserve of snow and ice outside the polar regions

Page 3: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities.

The “water tower”

• Amu Darya• Indus• Ganges• Brahmaputra

(Yarlungtsanpo)• Irrawaddy • Salween (Nu)• Mekong (Lancang)• Yangtse (Jinsha)• Yellow River

(Huanghe)• Tarim (Dayan)

These River Basins provide services to 1.3 billion people, a fifth of the world’s population (ICIMOD, 2009)

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Different sources of moisture

(IICIMOD 2008)

JJAS

DJF

Page 5: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities.

Sensitivity to climate change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3y = -161.57 + 0.081443x R= 0.59188

=8.09=0.33

Te

mp

eratu

re A

no

ma

ly ( oC

)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

y = -134.43 + 0.068 x R= 0.49862

=20.22=0.31

Te

mp

era

ture

An

om

aly

(oC

)

Year

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3y = -184.44 + 0.093 x R= 0.65632

=-3.09=0.39

Te

mp

era

ture

An

om

aly

(oC

) a.

b.

c.

d.

Shrestha et al. 2009

HKH

HKH

Indus

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Runoff partioning

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Q (

m3 /s

)

rain

baseflow

snow

glacier

0

300

600

900

1200

2005 2025 2050 2075

(mm

)

Glacial runoff

Snow runoff

Rain runoff

Baseflow

At catchment scale (Langtang) deglaciation does not result in reduction in the runoff

Immerzeel et al., 2012

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Rees et al. (2004)

T=0.06oC/yrP=15%/yr

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Immerzeel et al., 2010; Science vol 328

Page 9: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities.

Role of snow and ice

UNEP, 2007

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Water scarcity

(IWMI 2008).

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Growing Water Demand

Rosengrant et al., 2002

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Why River Basin Programme ?

• Dublin Statement (1992) “the river basin is the most appropriate geographical entity for the planning and management of water resources”

• Development in RS and GIS has allowed to conduct study and analysis at river basin scale

• Recent studies on freshwater vulnerability at river basin scale (e.g. WDRG, Finland) suggested Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra as most vulnerable river basins

Page 13: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities.

ICIMOD’s River Basin Programme

• Challenges: To manage the problem of too much water in the wet season and too little water in the dry season and the consequences for water-related hazards and food, energy, and environmental security

• Goal: Improved integrated river basin management to reduce physical vulnerabilities and improve food and energy security for mountain and downstream communities in the HKH region while recognizing upstream interests

Page 14: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities.

Major Outputs

• River-basin wide information and analysis related to water management practices

• Climate change impact assessment of future water availability and risk scenarios for various sectors

• Gender sensitive and equitable IWRM and governance approaches to improve access to and use of water and hazard risk

• Establishment of regional flood and drought information system and vulnerability assessments

• Framework for regional cooperation on sharing regional flood data and information among RMCs

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Major Outputs (contd.)

• Policy-relevant recommendations for water resources programmes the water-food-energy nexus;

• Capacity building of regional partners’ on mountain-specific IWRM and DRR

• Basin-wide and regional knowledge hubs

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Cross cutting issues

• Gender and social inclusion: – Preparation of gender sensitive water

induced risk assessment , identification of challenges and capacity gaps women face in order to adapt to climate change impacts;

– documentation of best practices and policies, focusing on gender sensitive and inclusive approaches;

– preparation of a toolkit of adaptation strategies at the river basin level for vulnerable socioeconomic groups over a range of geospatial settings.

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Cross cutting issues (contd.)

• Economic analysis and governance: – An assessment of the feasibility of planning

IWRM strategies– development of innovative approaches to

improving water resource management in a sustainable manner, through benefit sharing between u/s and d/s

– evidence- and knowledge-based discussions among decision and policymakers.

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Initiatives of River Basin Programme

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Indus Basin Initiative

• To develop better understanding long-term climate trends and short-term climate variability

• To enhance understanding of cryosphere dynamics

• To study impact of climate change and its variation on water availability

• Risk assessment of climate induced hazards on livelihood of vulnerable communities of UIB

• To study the Impact of UIB hydrological change on agriculture and socio economic conditions of downstream vulnerable sectors

• To support adaptation to the impact of climate change on agriculture and water management

http://geoportal.icimod.org/indusbasin/

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HYCOS Initiative

• Strengthen the framework for cooperation for sharing regional flood data and information

• Establish a flood observation network in selected rivers

• Establish regional and national flood information systems to share real time data and information and increase lead time

• Enhance the technical capacity of partners on flood forecasting and communication with end users

http://hkhhycos.icimod.org/

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Koshi Basin Initiative

• Support evidence-based policy interventions through the development of knowledge on impact of climatic and socioeconomic drivers

• Develop and test actionable and appropriate adaptation pilots and livelihood strategies

• Contribute to developing an enabling environment for policy and decision makers to create integrated, innovative, equitable, inclusive, and effective responses

http://www.icimod.org/?q=9037

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Stages of Koshi Initiative

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We work for

Communities

Private Sector

Policy / decision makers

National Government

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Thank you