International Benchmarking on the Status Quo of...
56
International Benchmarking on the Status Quo of Electromobility in Germany 2015 Results Document of the Parallel Impact Research 17
Transcript of International Benchmarking on the Status Quo of...
International Benchmarkingon the Status Quo of Electromobility in Germany 2015
Results Document of the Parallel Impact Research 17
April 2016
International Benchmarkingon the Status Quo of Electromobility in Germany 2015
Directories
Directories I
Contents
Executive Summary 1
Methodology 7
Results 11
Market Potential 11Economic factors 11Technological factors 13Political factors 13Ecological factors 13Social factors 14
Product Portfolio 15
The Role of the Automotive and Supplier Industry 18
Battery Production 21
Public Charging Infrastructure 24
The Role of Politics 29
Other Challenges for the Market Ramp-up 31
Summary 33
Implications for Germany 35Market Potential 35Product Portfolio 35The Role of the Automotive and Supplier Industry 36Battery Production 36Public Charging Infrastructure 36Regulatory Framework 37Challenges during Market Ramp-up and the Role of Politics 37
Parallel Impact Research 39
Appendix A
Bibliography A
Results Documents of the Parallel Impact Research D
Legal information F
II Directories
List of Illustrations
figure 01: Overview of the Interviewees by Industry 7
figure 02: Overview of the Interviewees by the Country of Origin of their Organisations 8
figure 03: Potential Future Scenarios of Electric Drive Systems 12
figure 04: Effect of Incentives and Available Models on the Development of e-vehicle Sales in Norway 16
figure 05: Planned Emission Limits in Various Regions 19
figure 06: CO2 Fleet Emissions of Selected OEMs in 2012 20
figure 07: Forecast of Battery Price Development 23
figure 08: Other Suggested Incentives to Promote e-mobility 28
Directories III
List of Tables
table 01: Factors that Hinder / Drive Electromobility 14
table 02: Overview of Relevant Incentive Mechanisms and their Application by Country 27
table 03: Country Comparison by Factor 33
Executive Summary
Executive Summary 1
The aim of this analysis is to compare Germany with other e-mobility markets and to show international examples of best practice that can help boost the market ramp-up of electromobility. It is based on semi-struc-tured interviews that Deutsche Dialog Institut conducted with 45 experts and decision-makers from 11 countries in autumn 2015.
All interviewees agreed that electromobility will assert itself in the long run. It is superior to fossil mobility in terms of both ecology and tech-nology. Existing technical obstacles, particularly with respect to battery capacity and life, will be overcome faster than expected, which is usual for disruptive innovations.
Therefore, the automotive industry which is vital for the German economy is faced with sweeping transformations that cannot be avoided. However, as long as it hampers the shift to e-mobility by preferring plug-in hybrids and and giving the development of a comprehensive model range with all-electric drive a low priority, Germany might fall back in the race for international leadership in this area. The “window of opportunity” to take the lead in the competition on the future market of electromobility is still open for OEMs and their suppliers (which send strong signals of innovation).
On the other hand, chances to establish Germany as the leading market of e-mobility are slim unless federal policy-makers decide to offer substantial monetary incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles. Local authorities in Germany, in turn, should use their regulatory leeway to in fact favour e-mobility, with an eye on successful examples abroad. Ideally, lawmak-ers should provide a tailor-made package of monetary and non-monetary incentives to push electromobility.
An important element in these efforts includes setting up and extending a public charging infrastructure with convenient access. The availability of such a network is a key factor for the acceptance of electromobility by the users.
Following examples from abroad and creating ample opportunities for the experience of e-mobility is also important. If more people can test the new technology in every-day life, like in Amsterdam, the number of those who will soon make it their standard will grow.
In principle, the international experts endorse the idea of a panel fostering cooperations such as the National Platform Electromobility, while at the time questioning their innovativeness, fearing that they might be guided by attempts to preserve the status quo rather than the energetic actions required for a successful future.
Executive Summary
Introduction
Introduction 3
The Federal Republic of Germany is at the beginning of a fundamental shift of the drivetrain technology of automobiles. The electrification of the drivetrain is both technologically feasible and on the political agenda. Federal, regional, and local authorities are investing considerable funds in the research, development, and commercialization of e-mobility. Their aim is to establish Germany as both the leading provider and market for electro-mobility worldwide. The National Platform Electromobility (NPE), a body that considers itself a working platform for representatives from politics, businesses, science, and society, accompanies and coordinates the trans-formation process. Several laws dealing with the promotion of e-mobility have already been adopted. Others are in the process of implementation or still under discussion. They have not had a major impact on the market ramp-up yet.
In the international arena, the development of e-mobility currently does not look overly promising. In terms of leading sales markets, Germany is mid- table.1 The market ramp-up planned to start in 2015 has in fact not happened yet. Other industrial countries like Norway, the Netherlands, and France have made much more headway in boosting their respective domestic sales markets thanks to political initiatives and product-related incentives.
In terms of the leading provider, Germany has been on the right track so far, but must by no means slow down. Based on McKinsey’s Electromobility Index, it ranked second among the providers of electric vehicles in the first half of 2015, but fell back to third place in July, when it was surpassed by China.2
The automotive industry is extremely important for the German economy. In 2014, this sector employed some 775,000 people, with a turnover of € 367.9 billion.3 Full support of the automotive industry in this sweeping transformation from internal combustion engines to e-vehicles is, there-fore, in the interest of German politics. This process should strengthen the international competitiveness of the German car sector along its entire value chain rather than hamper its development. This includes the necessi-ty to establish new business opportunities for supplier-adjacent sectors.
For this reason, Germany must carry out suitable and mutually supple-menting measures to boost both domestic demand and the competitiveness
1 See Electric Vehicle Index by McKinsey & Company (McKinsey 2015), Electromobility Index (Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2014: 4).
2 McKinsey & Company (2015)3 German Association of the Automotive Industry, VDA (2014)
Introduction
4 Introduction
of the German industry in the area of e-mobility. To do this, a realistic assessment of its current position among other countries and markets is required, particularly for cars. Otherwise, the target of having one million e-vehicles on German roads in 2020 set by the Federal Government might not be reached.
Deutsche Dialog Institut has conducted this benchmark survey on behalf of the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy as a contribution to the development of Germany as the leading market and of the German industry as leading providers. The survey is designed to:
▪ compare Germany with other leading markets for electromobility
▪ present examples of best practice from other countries
▪ identify framework conditions and critical success factors for the market ramp-up
Introduction 5
Methodology
0
5
10
15
automobile m
anufacturers
energy
charging infra
structure
researchothers
associatio
n
supplie
rs
13
6
4
7
5
4
6
29% 9% 13% 16% 11% 9% 13%
Interviewees by Industry
figure 01: Overview of the Interview-ees by Industry.
Methodology 7
The first step was to define the markets to be analysed. They included the leading markets from the point of view of both suppliers and users, namely: China, France, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, and the US plus Germany for reference.
Assumption-based interviews with experts and decision-makers from industry, science, and professional associations were carried out to collect data from the respective markets. Specifically, the IAA in Frankfurt (17 – 27 September 2015) was used to conduct the given survey among in-ternational specialists. Additional background talks were held at the World of Energy Solutions and the eCarTec trade fairs in Stuttgart and Munich, respectively. More background information was gathered in the context of the 5th International Conference on the Internet of Things in South Korea. In order to involve the whole range of relevant experts, additional telephone calls were carried out. These semi-structured interviews with specialists from around the world brought about an all-encompassing view of the specific situation of the German industry and market. Based on a predefined assumption on each content section, an insightful mosaic of opinions on e-mobility in the various leading markets was created.
45 interviews were conducted overall. The interviewees were granted ano-nymity to encourage them to speak frankly. Figure 01 shows an overview of the interviewees by industry.
Methodology
BelgiumChina
Germany
FranceJapan
South Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
Great Brit
ainUSA
8 Methodology
Figure 02 shows an overview of the interviewees by the country of origin of their organisations. The anonymised summary and documentation of the interviews show the international status quo of electromobility. It focuses on the follow-
figure 02: Overview of the Interview-ees by the Country of Origin of their Organisations.
BelgiumChina
Germany
FranceJapan
South Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
Great Brit
ainUSA
Methodology 9
ing topics: market potential, product portfolio, automotive industry and suppliers, battery production, public charging infrastructure, regulatory framework, the role of politics, and other challenges related to the market ramp-up.
Results
Results 11
Market Potential
Most of the interviewees, regardless of their country of origin, supported the assumption that e-mobility will assert itself in the long run.
The disruptive potential of e-mobility is confirmed without exception, even though uncertainties concerning the development of different types of alternative drives continue to exist. This finding, in combination with McKinsey’s future scenarios regarding CO2regulation (figure 03), further strengthens the assumption that some types of electrified drive systems will eventually supplant and almost completely replace the traditional internal combustion engine (ICE).
Therefore, it can be concluded that electromobility has a huge potential on every market in the world. The push and pull factors that influence the pace of this development in either a positive or a negative way include economic, technological, political, ecological, and social factors.
Economic factors
An important factor for the introduction of e-mobility is whether a country has an automotive and supplier industry of its own and its role for the over-all economy. This is because the disruptive potential of e-mobility triggers the need for transformation of the old business models of the affected companies. Jobs are to be preserved. The common goal of policy-makers and economic leaders is to safeguard employment.
Moreover, the production of e-vehicles requires changing the value creation structures in the industry since the battery takes up an above-average portion of the process. Therefore, it is important from an economic point of view whether a country has the necessary competencies for battery pro-duction. If this is the case, the business model of electromobility becomes more profitable.
Initial assumption: Electric vehicles will conquer the market. The tech-nologies for electrification are in place and its development is a target of climate change policy. The electric drivetrain is more efficient and powerful than the traditional combustion engine. Energy storage, the only area where a good solution is still missing, is expected to develop in a positive way.
Is it only a matter of time before electric vehicles will conquer the market?
Results Norway is an example that shows that e-mobility will eventually assert itself. Norway
Over the next few years, many people will switch to e-mobility, especially if the battery technology improves and costs are cut. China
A mass market will not develop before 2018. US
China is the largest mar-ket for electromobility in the world. China
The market is ripe, in Ger-many everything is ready to enter the market. France
Neglecting the potential of e-mobility would leave China with big ecological problems. Today, many cities in China are covered in grey haze. It is also a matter of energy security. Today, over 58 percent of the energy used is imported. If the OEMs continue in this way, the problem will persist. China
0
2010 2050
REEV
100
75
50
25
Future of powertrain market remains uncertainMarket share of units produced globally, %
Very strict regulation leads to BEV and FCEV world → Below 10Cap of 10 g CO2/km in 2050
Little change in regulation leads to a world of hybrids an BEVs → Below 100Cap of 95 g CO2/km in 2050
2° climat goal leads to a 3 technology world → Below 40Cap of 40 g CO2/km in 2050
FCEV
ICE (optimized)
HEV
BEV
0
2010 2050
REEV
100
75
50
25FCEV
ICE (optimized)
HEV
BEV
0
2010 2050
REEV
100
75
50
25
FCEV
ICE (optimized)
HEV BEV
• ICE remains dominant until 2025, but loses market share to xEVs
• In the long run, BEVs dominate smaller vehicles and FCEV larger vehicles
• HEV / REEV as bridging technology
• ICE remains dominant until 2025, but loses market share to xEVs
• Over time, BEVs, REEVS and FCEVs dominate small, medium and large vehicles, respectively
• xEVs lead to singular drivetrain scenario
• ICE remains dominant until 2035+
• BEV will only become economically competitive post-2030, no infrastructure for FCEV ist built
• Long-term HEV and REEV / BEV existence leads to a dual powertrain scenario
12 Results
figure 03: Potential Future Scenarios of Electric Drive Systems (source: McKinsey 2014).
Results 13
Technological factors
To what extent are car manufacturers able to offer a portfolio of e-vehicles across the entire model range that meets customer requirements in terms of range, convenience, and price? The variety of models offered is an ex-tremely beneficial factor.
Another relevant issue is whether there is already a charging infrastructure available for users of electric vehicles.
In addition, technical interaction between the relevant charging infrastruc-ture providers must be smooth, convenient, and easy to use (e-roaming, ad-hoc access).
Political factors
Politics can tackle the current non-competitiveness of e-vehicles caused by their high acquisition costs, low range, and still insufficient charging infrastructure with an array of measures aimed at actively accompanying and promoting the market launch and ramp-up. These include, among other things, incentive mechanisms. To what extent and by what type of interaction are incentives implemented? Can these solutions principally be pushed forward in the respective political system? Is there a broad political consensus on actively promoting e-mobility? In this context, the interac-tion between businesses and politics is important as well. The overlapping challenges of e-mobility in research, development, and market implemen-tation can only be successfully overcome with a close network between these two areas.
Ecological factors
Ecological aspects can further drive electromobility. The current scandal at Volkswagen has shifted the media focus to hazardous vehicle emissions. This could provide an opportunity to position e-mobility as an eventually superior alternative to traditional drive technologies. This scandal should affect future policies, particularly in light of the goals of climate control and environmental protection. Transport policies must contribute to re-ducing CO2 and other pollutants. Fostering electromobility is an appropri-ate way to do this. Therefore, governments that have formulated concrete goals of climate control and environmental protection must draw their lessons from what has happened and seriously promote e-mobility.
economic factorsmodel range on offer
domestic automotive industry
technological factorsdomestic battery production
charging infrastructure
political factors
incentive mechanisms
political enforceability
interaction between businesses and politics
ecological factorsgoals of climate control
energy turnaround
social factors
cultural shift
attitude towards new technologies
attitude towards sustainability
14 Results
Social factors
The cultural shift in countries and markets has resulted in previously unseen customer demands. At the same time, attitudes towards new technologies and sustainability are changing. Societies that are principally open-minded for new technologies and test them without reservations will tend to be less sceptical about using electric vehicles than more conserva-tive societies. A positive attitude towards matters related to sustainability and renewable energy sources is equally important in this context. Societies that are both aware of their responsibility for the environment and willing to change their behaviour and to invest public funds to this end, will gener-ally have a positive attitude towards e-mobility.
The table below summarises the factors described above.
Further development of the assumption: Electromobility is a disruptive technology. Electric vehicles will conquer the market in the long run. How fast this will happen in the respective markets will depend on a number of factors the importance and configuration of which may differ among these markets.
table 01: Factors that Hinder / Drive Electromobility.
Results 15
Product Portfolio
The product portfolio offered by OEMs has a large impact on the suc-cess of electromobility. This becomes clear when looking at Norway. Figure 04 shows that, despite considerable incentives, sales of e-vehicles in Norway increased only marginally between 1990 and 2010. Only after a certain variety of models had been reached did sales figures skyrocket.
An appropriate number of different models is necessary to target each and every potential group of e-vehicle users. The Renault Twizy, for instance, was designed for local mobility and car sharing use. This model sells particularly well in Italy since it is considered a more comfortable version of the motor scooter. Some parents buy this model for their children when they start university.
There are, however, still target groups for which no suitable electric cars are available, such as families with comfort and space requirements. Therefore, car manufacturers should continue to extend their range of e-vehicles if they take e-mobility seriously.
Potential demand that is currently not met by manufacturers is also seen for light commercial vehicles, especially in European markets like France and the Netherlands.
The huge potential of commercially used electric vehicles is yet another important area, as all surveyed experts agreed. However, they make diffe- rent assessments of the leverage effect of commercial vehicles. Many of them think that commercial vehicles used for B2B purposes will merely have a marketing effect. In their opinion, this type of everyday use of e-mobility would demonstrate its benefits, for example, with courier, express, and parcel services driving electrically in cities and thus reduc-
Initial assumption: Worldwide, manufacturers are pursuing different strategies for electrification. Toyota has chosen hybrids; Nissan/Renault, Tesla, and Kia are moving directly towards fully electric BEVs. As of now, German manufacturers only offer a few fully electric BEVs. They are currently shifting from hybrids to plug-in hybrids since the latter get more benefits under European regulations. Currently, German manufacturers do not offer any commercial vehicles with electric drive.
Has the product range offered by car manufacturers an influence on private and commercial implementation of e-mobility?
In Norway, introducing the e-Golf was a major step since the Golf is a very pop-ular model. Presently, the e-Golf accounts for 50 per-cent of EV sales. Norway
Worldwide investments should focus more on the development of BEVs since this will be the prevailing technology in the long run. Norway
If we want to offer the best solutions, we have to make a new sort of car which is tailored to electrifi-cation. France
We need different models and segments. We cannot only offer small cars in the electric segment. We also need large models. People want a large e-vehicle that provides room for a family or their baggage. Norway
The models must become more affordable. Japan
The diesel scandal is fuel-ling our plans. Now we can really up the tempo. Germany
1990 2016 20202012 20142010200820062004200220001994 1996 19981992
Zero toll
Free parking
Peugeot IonCitroen C-Zero
Nissan Leaf
Volvo V60Toyota Prius
Opel Ampera/Chevrolet Volt
Tesla SBMW i3VW e-up!Ford FocusMitsubishi Outlander
VW eGolfRenault ZoeBMW i8Audi A3
Zero registration tax
Kewet (Buddy)
No change in measures
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
50.000
Zero VAT
Access to bus lanes
Mitsubishi I-Miev
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
Pivco (Think)
Targetof 50.000
set in 2012
Market Introduction
Policy Development
Accumulated sales of electric cars, Norway
16 Results
ing noise and emissions. Another good example is the electrification of taxi fleets in Amsterdam and in China.4
Other experts also regard commercial use as a lever to boost the sales volume and thus to push electromobility. E-vehicles can provide substantial benefits for commercial operators like access to restricted inner-city zones and lower operating costs. The French postal service operates 7,000 Re-nault Kangoo e-vehicles, worldwide 10,000 units are in use. When operated with the adequate driving pattern, these vehicles don’t need recharging during the day. Manufacturers need to offer more models suitable for commercial use to take advantage of this potential.
4 The Chinese government obliges the local authorities to procure 30 percent of taxis, de-livery vans, and buses with alternative drive systems by 2016 (Bloomberg News 2014).
figure 04: Effect of Incentives and Available Models on the Development of e-vehicle Sales in Norway (source: Witkamp 2015).
Results 17
In emerging economies like China, there are target groups with specific demands, with a huge market potential attributed to so-called low speed vehicles and economical electric minicars. They can appeal to many user groups and solve real local problems like enormous CO2 and noise emis-sions. In 2014, some 400,000 low speed electric vehicles (LSEV) were sold in China, compared to only 84,000 conventional electric or hybrid cars. Companies expect the number of LSEVs to grow by 50% to 600,000 units by 2015 and to reach one million by 2020. Other industry experts are more optimistic. They believe that one million LSEVs will sell in one to two years and that by 2020, up to three million cars will drive on Chinese roads, generating 100 trillion RMB in revenues. In these countries e-scooters also play a major role as a means of transportation.
Some experts think that the strategy of German car makers to offer hybrids and fully-electric vehicles in parallel is not very reasonable. In the long run, hybrid cars will remain more expensive than fully-electric vehicles since they need two engines and their maintenance requires much more effort. Mild hybrid cars (48 volt technology) are not considered superior either, since they will only slightly improve the combustion technology, which cannot make up for the general inferiority of internal combustion engines. Hybrids can only serve as a bridge technology which cannot compete with fully electric vehicles in the long run. Some inter-viewees, however, showed sympathy for the strategy, contending that it was not yet clear which technology would finally gain the greatest acceptance.
Further development of the assumption: The product range made avail-able by the automotive industry for both private and commercial use has a large impact on the point of time when e-mobility will assert itself. It has to meet the needs of the customers. Otherwise the industry will lose a huge sales potential. In particular, the range of e-vehicles and light vehicles for commercial use is currently by no means sufficient.
18 Results
The Role of the Automotive and Supplier Industry
Various factors drive the growing pressure on the automotive industry to consider e-mobility an integral part of their strategic perspective.
The manufacturers with a large share in markets in Europe are affected by the goals of climate control and the limits on fleet emissions defined by EU agencies. A similar development can be seen in the US, especially in indi-vidual states like California. Figure 05 shows an overview of the planned emission regulations in selected regions. In this context, the manipulations of exhaust emission and fuel consumption measurements with diesel and petrol engines at Volkswagen become even more scandalous. It is in the focus not only in Germany and the US, but also in the rest of the world. Air pollution in megacities in Asia is increasing the pressure to introduce new zero-emission drive systems. It is, therefore, not only political pressure that urges the car industry to act, but also trends in society.
Car makers are faced with the challenge of lowering their fleet emission levels, while maintaining their competitiveness. The scale of this challenge becomes clear when looking at the EU emission limits. Based on current rules, the big OEMs will have to reduce the overall CO2 emissions of their fleets by 28 percent on average (see figure 06).
For this very reason, companies like Toyota or Mitsubishi have defined electromobility as the heart of their strategy. It is striking that these man-ufacturers are focusing more on the mass market rather than on premium customers. Strategic partnerships in research and development play an important role in this process, like, for example, in the cooperation of Renault and Nissan. 5
5 The Chinese government obliges the local authorities to procure 30 percent of taxis, de-livery vans, and buses with alternative drive systems by 2016 (Bloomberg News 2014).
Initial assumption: The industry is changing. Many businesses, particu-larly German manufacturers, are sticking too closely to the combustion engine. It is difficult for developers and decision-makers to turn away from this sophisticated technology. Suppliers and OEMs may lose their competitiveness in the medium term, if they initiate this shift too late.
What is the role of the automotive and supplier industry in the transfor-mation process towards electromobility
Completely decarbonising transportation is not an op-tion, but a necessity. China
Manufacturers who work against this development will fall back. In this case, Volkswagen will be the loser and Citroën and the other car makers will take over. Norway
Tesla has shown the world what is technologically feasible. Other brands have to follow suit. German car makers in particular are a bit slow and lag behind the development. Norway
Today, OEMs can easily embark upon the produc-tion of e-vehicles. France
The change of mind of our customers is happening at a slower pace than expected at the beginning. France
OEMs should do their own homework before calling on politics, especially for pricing issues. Netherlands
The next 30 years will completely turn the auto-motive industry around. The manufacturers must actively tackle this revolution. China
180
120
0
200190
180167
130
125
152
121
117
10593951
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025
160
140
100
Planned emission standards in select regionsg CO2/km normalize to New European Driving Cycle
• EU target of 130 g CO2/km e�ective as of 2012, with a moderate phase-in allowed until 2015• Long-term EU proposal of 95 g CO2/km for 2020; 2025 initial proposal 68–78 g but decision postponed
• In the US, fleets must improved to to 93 g CO2/km (59.1 mpg) in 2025 from the 152 g CO2/km (36.2 mpg) threshold in 2016
1 European Commission proposal for 2020; voting deferred at end of Juni 2013 (earliest time of approval currently May 2014), path 2015–2020 unclear. Source: ICCT, Press search, McKinsey
China USA
7
EUJapan
Results 19
One interviewee stated that today OEMs can easily embark upon the production of e-vehicles: “The big companies in Asia are working on batteries, battery production runs smoothly, and there is a dense network of suppliers. In addition, the electric motor is not very complex.” The persons surveyed see challenges for the automotive and supplier industry particularly in battery technology, body weight reduction, and the intel-ligent integration of the car into the energy and transport infrastructure (smart car, smart grid, smart traffic). They also have to keep up with short-er development cycles.
When looking at the value chain, it becomes clear that suppliers and OEM are developing e-mobility in a symbiotic relationship. Here, the suppliers
figure 05: Planned Emission Limits in Various Regions (source: McKinsey 2014).
95101 101 103
94 9397 94 95 94 93 93 93 94
88
1321
148141 139
1442
137 134129
1342 132 129121 1223 122 120
TOTAL
Mercedes B
enzAudi
Honda
Nissan VW Kia GM
HyundaiFord
Renault
Peugeot Citr
oen
Toyota FiatBMW
-35% -32% -28% -27% -29% -29% -28% -23% -24% -23% -27%-28% -32% -28% -26%
CO2-emmisions of selected OEMs and brands 2012 in Europe (NEDC)→ Major OEMs need to cut fleet emissions by ~30 % by 2020 to meet EU emissions target
Average 2012
g CO2/km
1 Average of top 20 brands2 Data from 2011; 2012 numbers not officially published yet3 Average of Peugeot 121.2 and Citroen 112.0 and average difference Peugeot -7.3 and Citroen -3.4 Source: European Commission, Press search
EU-Target 2020
20 Results
are the driving forces that lead the OEMs to the new technologies. “The suppliers have a lot of visionary ideas!“, one person said.
During market ramp-up, manufacturers generally focus their sales efforts on the countries that offer subsidies. Spain, Great Britain, and Norway were often mentioned in the interviews. For China, this is true only in part, since subsidies there are restricted to products of domestic manufacturers.6 Renault and Nissan have launched a remarkable initiative, offering each buyer of their electric models a premium of € 5,000 in large-volume mar-kets like Germany. In general, several interviewees both from Europe and South Korea held the opinion that OEMs had to commit themselves more to offering e-vehicles at competitive purchasing prices.
6 Bloomberg (2014)
figure 06: CO2 Fleet Emissions of Selected OEMs in 2012 (source: McKinsey 2014).
Results 21
Few of them assumed that any other new players besides Tesla will enter the market. The opinion prevailed that Tesla had taken timely advantage of its opportunity, but the former “window of opportunity” had then be closed because the large manufacturers had recognised the potential of e-mobility and mustered the necessary resources to block the market entry of other firms. Only technology companies from other areas, such as Apple and Google, were considered to have sufficient financial and personnel resources to overcome these barriers and possible position themselves on the market in the future.
Battery Production
The traction battery is an important core component for electric vehi-cles. It has a decisive effect on both range and price of e-vehicles. The energy density of the battery must be improved in order to increase the range and, thus, the appeal of e-vehicles. In addition, the battery should be made more durable. Generally, intense research is needed to improve the battery technology. Setting up a battery research and production site is an important investment in the future since the market for lithium ion cells is currently dominated by Asian companies.7 However, it is not that important whether the competence is located in Asia or in Europe. What is paramount is that the owner structure ensures access to know how and
7 eNova Strategiekreis Elektromobilität (2015: 3).
Further development of the assumption: Growing ecological, political, and social pressure is causing the international automotive and supplier industry to actively tackle the issue of electromobility. Technological progress is becoming evident, whereas the lacking customer acceptance is still a problem. This also applies to most of the markets investigated.
Initial assumption: The battery has a very high share in the added value of the overall vehicle. The dependency on this component will become critical for the success of the OEMs.
Are Germany and Europe missing the connection to the battery manufac-turers in Korea, Japan, and the US? Is the competitiveness of European manufacturers in jeopardy?
I guess cell production is an issue that will keep us busy for still some time. I think it is wrong that the state is getting involved in this area. It can only work with companies looking ahead and joining the tech-nology leap. Germany
The infrastructure is in place. Now standardisation and economies of scale are at stake. South Korea
The competitive pressure will boost efficiency and cut prices. Both the overall process and second life batteries must become more efficient. The whole thing functions with a snowball effect: the market grows and this moves the system forward. Japan
22 Results
resources. This was achieved, for instance, by a German supplier by means of a cooperation agreement with a Japanese car maker. According to this scheme, the production is located in Japan, whereas research and develop-ment are based in Germany.
But it is not only energy density that counts for a battery. Its price must also fall substantially to increase both user acceptance and competitiveness of e-vehicles. The battery price is the key element that determines the total cost of ownership (TCO) of an electric car.8 Lowering battery prices would, therefore, bring down the TCO of e-vehicles and boost their competitive-ness compared to internal combustion engines.9 Current forecasts give reason to expect that battery prices will fall faster than assumed in previ-ous cost assessments by the industry. These forecasts include an analysis by Björn Nykvist and Måns Nilsson, two researchers of the Stockholm Environment Institute. They evaluated 80 surveys on price development of lithium ion battery for e-vehicles carried out between 2007 and 2014 (see figure 07).10 Many persons interviewed for this benchmark analysis con-firm their forecast. They explain their expectations of fast falling battery prices with increased competitive pressure and demand, as well as with steadily improving battery and production technology.
8 McKinsey (2014: 25).9 McKinsey (2014: 25).10 Nykvist, Björn; Nilsson, Måns (2015)
Further development of the assumption: Due to the importance of the German automotive industry for the economy as a whole, it is imperative that competencies for battery technology and research are established in Germany. In this process, a competitive production of battery cells can also be achieved by cooperating with manufacturers from abroad. Germany can position itself in R&D for vehicle batteries, specialise in this area as well as set up long-term competence and thorough knowledge in battery production.
2005
2000
2014US$/kWh
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
1750
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
95% conf interval whole industry
95% conf interval market leaders
< US$ 150 per kWh goal for commercialization
Publications, reports and journals
News items with expert statements
Additional cost estimates without clear method
Market leader, Nissan Motors, Leaf
Market leader, Tesla Motors, Model S
Other battery electric vehicles
Future costs estimated in publications
Log fit news, reports, and journals: 12 ± 6% decline
Log fit of market leaders only: 8 ± 8% decline
Log fit of all estimates: 14 ± 6% decline
Results 23
figure 07: Forecast of Battery Price Development (in US$ per kWh) (Nykvist, Måns 2015).
24 Results
Public Charging Infrastructure
Everybody interviewed, regardless of their country of origin, regarded providing a public charging infrastructure as a key factor for success, not only to cover the actual demand, but also psychologically to prove the existence of a charging network. They pointed out that a sufficient number of charging stations were necessary to allow e-vehicles to cover long distances.
Still, the charging infrastructure is only a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for a successful market ramp-up. Portugal or Ireland, for exam-ple, have quite a good charging infrastructure, but not that many electric vehicles drive on their roads.
The Netherlands and Norway are pioneers for setting up charging columns. If someone buys an electric car in Amsterdam, he can apply for a public charging column that is located near his home and sponsored by the state. The Norwegian government subsidises the installation of the charging infrastructure. Funding there started in 2008 during the economic crisis in the framework of a stimulus package: Some 800 stations were set up. In Hongkong, the local government created a master plan for the installation of a public charging infrastructure. It involves the two largest electricity providers, shopping centre planners, and agencies in charge of public housing. South Korea and China, on the other hand, have not got that far yet. Allegedly, Tesla is not successful in China because of the insufficient charging network. The Chinese government reacted in October 2015, announcing the installation of 12,000 charging columns. On top of this, 3,850 charging stations for public buses and 2,500 charging columns for taxis will be set up.
Obviously, the best conditions for thoroughly extending the charging infra-structure today are present in Norway. The infrastructure for power supply in this country has always been in good shape, since the time when it was installed for independent electric vehicle heaters.
Initial assumption: E-vehicles in everyday life are only viable with a charg-ing infrastructure that is available everywhere and permits rapid charging. In Germany, the process of establishing the charging infrastructure is not satisfactory at the moment. In particular, there are clearly not enough charging points for fast charging.
What is the role of the public charging infrastructure in other countries and how fast are they being extended?
It is understandable that Germany wants a solution and standards of its own. But the government agen-cies of the various countries should cooperate on this matter. Norway
There must be more con-venient payment options. Netherlands
At the moment, you cannot make money with charging stations. They are an investment in a business model of the future. France
Other countries like Portu-gal or Ireland have an excel-lent charging infrastructure, but have not sold more cars. The infrastructure alone is not enough. You need both incentives and the infra-structure. Norway
In Japan, we have enough regular charging columns and fast-charging columns. Every 20 km, there is a fast-charging column, overall we have 5,000. They were installed and in part financed by the automotive industry. The state subsi-dised this project. Japan
We need regular and fast charging. And now there is also inductive charging. The different technologies must interact smoothly. China
Today, we have to define a standard for the charging infrastructure, in the same way like for petrol 100 years ago. OEMs must close ranks with electricity providers and create a joint standard. China
Results 25
Today, none of the markets analysed offers a profitable financing and operating model for regular charging. There are, however, functional busi-ness models for fast-charging columns provided they are operated under sufficient load. Dutch companies like Fastned and Allego for example, are working on setting up and operating a fast-charging infrastructure in the Netherlands and other countries in Europe.
In Asia, huge residential highrises in the megacities are a particular challenge for installing a charging infrastructure. Charging at the socket of private homes is usually not possible. Charging in public or private car parks re-quires a permit, which is sometimes difficult to obtain, as one person from Hongkong said.
The demand for a charging infrastructure varies by country. One Japanese interviewee claimed that there was no need to install a public charging infrastructure across the entire country. Users would charge at home or at work, he said, unless they take public transport to go to work anyway. None-theless, the Japanese car makers Mitsubishi, Honda, Toyota, and Nissan, together with the government, are actively working on setting up a charging infrastructure and reaching the political target to have two million stations for regular charging and 5,000 for fast charging in place by 2020.
Currently, e-vehicle owners usually need several charging cards for the charging stations of different providers. This is not convenient. Unified access and billing procedures (e-roaming and ad-hoc charging) are pressing issues in all of the analysed markets. “For cross-border traffic, things get even more complicated”, said someone from Norway. There are often no roaming contracts between providers from different countries. Therefore, initiatives for setting up a single European standard are warmly welcomed. Among other things, this would make user-friendly payment schemes possi-ble. One interviewee claimed that many new customers were deterred by the complicated state of affairs at charging columns, did not use fast-charging columns for this reason, and did not use their e-vehicles for longer trips.
Further development of the assumption: The charging infrastructure is considered a critical factor for a successful market ramp-up. A financial cooperation between state agencies and automobile manufacturers like in Japan can speed up its installation.
26 Results
Regulatory Framework
Electromobility will only assert itself if its potential users associate it with undisputed benefits. Offering these benefits is, therefore, an important measure for the promotion of e-mobility. In California, for example, the multi-driver lane, which is usually restricted to car pools, was opened for all types of low-emission vehicles. Another example is the metropolitan region of Oslo, where the permission to use bus lanes is a major incentive since it cuts commuting time from suburbs by up to 40 minutes. This allows users of e-vehicles to reach their workplace much faster.
This shows that it makes sense to foster e-mobility by means of a regula-tory framework.
These framework conditions, however, largely depend on the concrete political and social situation. Therefore, it is recommended to adapt the incentives to the requirements in the respective countries. There is a wide variety of monetary and non-monetary incentives with a great leverage potential. Examples for the latter include, along with those mentioned above, Paris and China. In Paris, electric vehicles can park free of charge. In China, assigning licence plates without lottery11 and exemptions from access restrictions in cities with heavy traffic have proven very effective. These incentives, however, do not extend to hybrid cars.
Examples of monetary incentives can also be found in many countries: In Norway, owners of cars emitting less than 20g of CO2/km are paid a one-
11 In order to somehow limit the surge of private cars in Beijing, its inhabitants normal-ly have to endure a lottery. Its winners are entitled to receive a licence plate which is a prerequisite for buying a car
Initial assumption: In many countries, individual transport is being increasing restricted in order to reach climate targets. In addition, many countries are promoting electromobility, in particular by means of legal privileges or by providing special funding. Germany has undergone a phase of intense research funding and is now in an open situation. Many potential means of promotion (market stimuli) are still under discussion. In other countries in Europe and beyond, progressive funding has already proven successful.
What must a package of incentives look like in order to meet the needs of the different markets and support the expansion of e-mobility?
Car makers move to the market with the most at-tractive subsidies. France
In Norway, it is the monetary incentives that really have an impact. Norway
If we do it right, we can change the market in a twinkling. China
The Norway case demon-strates that the type of cars people drive can change very quickly if a country offers an appealing package of incentives. Norway
If Germany decided to offer an appealing package of incentives, we would not need to keep them for a long time, maybe until 2020. It would become a sure-fire success. The package can also include elements that do not require a large budget. Norway
Subsidies play a key role in market development. They bridge the gap be-tween the price of electric vehicles and conventional cars. Japan
Non-monetary incentives can be effective provided severe access for internal combustion engines are put in place beforehand, like in Spain. France
Nether-lands
Norway France China South Korea
Japan USA
car tax exemption or reduction related to CO2 emissions
reduced taxation of company fleet cars
exemption from VAT
buyer’s premium (regional)
access privileges for EVs (environmental zone, extended delivery times, toll cuts …)
privileged parking (free of charge, EV exclu-sive parking
access to privileged lanes
table 02: Overview of Relevant Incentive Mechanisms and their Application by Country.
Results 27
time bonus of € 7,000 (30 percent of the purchasing price at most). Cars with CO2 emission between 21 and 50g per km are rewarded a bonus of € 5,000. In France, a Renault Zoe costs € 20,000. The buyer’s premium of € 6,000 granted upon its acquisition reduces the price to € 14,000. If the buyer returns a diesel-engine car in addition, another € 4,000 is deducted as scrappage premium. In other words, the actual purchasing price of a Re-nault Zoe may come down to a mere € 10,000 in France. In comparison: A Renault Clio with internal combustion engine costs € 15,000. In Califor-nia, the owners of plug-in hybrids must pay additional fees to help finance the charging infrastructure. In the Netherlands, commercial fleet operators receive subsidies of € 3,000 from the Ministry for Infrastructure and the Environment for the acquisition of e-taxis and e-vans. In Amsterdam, the owners of e-vehicles are not only provided with a parking space free of charge, but can also recharge their batteries for free.
Countries that do not have a strong automotive industry can more easily introduce tax breaks for electric vehicles. Table 02 shows an overview of different incentives in the markets investigated.
Experience shows, however, that non-monetary incentives like access to bus lanes or free parking in cities lose their effect faster than monetary ones. After all, electric vehicles need space as well. In Norway, e-vehicles now cause traffic jams in bus lanes.
28 Results
Therefore, incentive systems cannot be maintained forever. They should rather be seen as temporary tools during the market ramp-up that are to be abolished at the appropriate time. Norway, for instance has a corresponding exit strategy in place that relates to incentives for buying e-vehicles. The exemption from VAT is phased out after 2017 in stages. Exemption from import duties ends in 2010. Complete exemption from car tax lasts until 2018, a 50% reduction continues until 2020. The 50% exemption from company car tax is granted until 2018. The end of cer-tain incentives, however, can adversely affect market development. In the Netherlands, sales of e-vehicles slumped immediately after the subsidies ended. Consequently, incentives should be evaluated before they end and extended, if necessary.
Figure 08 shows an incentive system with complementary monetary and non-monetary components which many interviewees characterised as beneficial and helpful.
exemption from
import duties
free access to ferries
installation of CIS
near home
exemption from
car tax
increase of
mineral oil taxtoll exemption
Further development of the assumption: Incentive mechanisms designed to promote electromobility are complex since they have to be tailored to the concrete situation of any given country as well as to the needs of the users. If politics manage to provide a suitable package, this will help boost the expansion of e-mobility much faster.
figure 08: Other Suggested Incentives to Promote e-mobility.
Results 29
The Role of Politics
The cooperation between the different industries and the stakeholders from business, science, and politics is a key factor for the successful imple-mentation of e-mobility.
The interviews showed that the political structures in the different coun-tries have a large impact on the process of implementing electromobility. It also became clear that the regulatory framework varies significantly by culture. The US, for instance, is focused far more on the business success of the companies involved than on their interaction with politics. South Korea, on the other hand, is characterised by a close interleaving between important large companies and politics and by industrial policies clearly tailored to the needs of big business. This is also due to the enormous importance of these companies for their country. Samsung, for example, accounts for one third of South Korea’s overall exports. The group’s turno-ver is 24 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. According to the interviewees, a similarly close intertwining between the car industry and politics exists in Japan.
How fast electromobility evolves in a country, also depends on whether there is a social consensus on it. In Norway and in the Netherlands, for instance, the laws for promoting e-mobility were adopted in a consen-sus that spanned several parties. On this basis, laws can be passed much more smoothly. It is safe to assume that the fact that neither country has a significant automotive industry with a need to protect jobs played an important role in this context. On the other hand, countries with a strong automotive industry like Sweden and Germany focus more on research funding and are reluctant to offer buying incentives.
Another observation relates to China, where the political structures with its authoritarian single-party government fosters the introduction of electro-mobility. This system make it easier to enforce key decisions even against
Initial assumption: In the case of disruptive innovations like electromo-bility, which trigger a transformation process across industries and within society, the interaction between the different stakeholders from business, science, and politics is extremely important. We often hear the phrase that “all parties involved have to be integrated”.
How does cooperation between businesses and politics during this trans-formation process work how can it be improved?
In the US, the focus is their own businesses, not on political interaction. US
In Japan, we always adopt a national plan based on consensus that also cares for the needs of society. Japan
It is always important to act! Politicians must discuss issues more intensely with the parties involved and quickly come up with practi-cal solutions. Netherlands
In Norway, one of the success factors is the broad consensus. Virtually all political parties, including the Greens, as well as the Norwegian Automobile Association support the development. Without this support a sweeping change would be difficult. Norway
In Norway, electromobili-ty is part of the environmen-tal policy. Environmental aspects are also the key driver. Norway
It is a good idea to bring all stakeholders togeth-er. However, you need a leading body that gathers everybody and defines the agenda. Expecting success without such a leading body would be a miracle. France
30 Results
potential resistance. However, one specialist criticised that, regardless of the close cooperation between business and politics, the market perspec-tive is not given due attention.
A communication platform for the stakeholders from politics, busi-ness, science, and society is considered very important. As one person put it: “Businesses need an interface to feed back their assessments to politics”. Some of the foreign experts surveyed knew about the National Platform Electromobility (NPE) in Germany and praised it as a model for cross-sector cooperation. However, NPE’s work was also criticised, alleging that it had achieved too little progress in preparing the market ramp-up and that it analysed too much and acted too little. Others said that NPE was dominated by large companies and that recommendations for action were softened according to their interests. However, a sluggish implementation is, in part, also criticised in other markets like France. There is a perceived lack of motivation to push electromobility. A repre-sentative of an industry association claimed that 90% of the petitions submitted to the association opposed the development of e-mobility. The groups that had something to lose allegedly exerted significant pressure. Being aware of this defensive attitude was said to be important for one’s own actions.
In the Netherlands, the Formula E Team has a similar function to NPE. It includes representatives from politics, business, and science and consults the government in its e-mobility strategy. In 2008, the Norwegian Minis-try of Transport set up an expert commission on the electrification of the transport sector. In fact, many of the measures it proposed have already been adopted and implemented.
Promoting e-mobility requires collaboration on a European level, especial-ly in general matters such as financing options and technical cooperation. This was stressed by many interviewees. The target should be to increase the efficiency of the diffusion process (“Not everything is supposed to be discussed at length in every single country”; “There is a job to be done”). Small cooperation teams, which are able to work quickly and in a flexible manner, are particularly well-suited for this task.
Further development of the assumption: In democratic countries, the greatest challenge in the transformation process towards e-mobility is the integration of very different interests in a way that makes it possible to take decisions jointly and to set the course for the target. A broad social consen-sus helps master this challenge. A strong domestic car industry hampers the consensus-finding process.
Ministries must cooperate and think in an inter-depart-mental manner. Otherwise, German competitiveness is in jeopardy, not only in the field of electromobility. South Korea
We need international co-operation in order to learn from each other, both on a political and an industrial level. China
National platforms are like looking ahead through the rear-view mirror. Panel discussions are not suffi-ciently oriented towards finding solutions. Germany
Integration alone is not enough. Companies need concepts for action. Germany
Platforms so far have not had ANY effect: Results are softened and you only meet the established ones. Germany
Results 31
Other Challenges for the Market Ramp-up
The introduction of e-mobility is embedded in the implementation of climate control concepts. This is another important factor for the market ramp-up. We have to bear in mind, however, that electric vehicles as such are not ecofriend-ly, even though they generally help reduce greenhouse gas, pollutants, and noise emissions. The key factor is the power source used to operate e-vehicles. Electric vehicles only contribute to the reduction of CO2emissions if their pow-er comes from renewable energy sources.12 Norway is a good example in this respect since it covers its demand for electricity almost completely with water power. If e-vehicles really contribute to climate control and environmental protection, they also become much more accepted by the users.
In many countries, people’s mobility behaviour is undergoing a sweeping change. The desire to own a car is becoming less important. This change is fos-tered by an increasing urbanisation. This entails new problems, such as traffic jams, noise exposure, and air pollution, which are a great burden for cities and metropolitan areas and make the use of internal combustion engines less appealing. A growing number of people, especially in industrialized countries, do without a conventional vehicle. In Japan, for instance, young people who are ecology-minded and technology-oriented were among the first buyers of e-vehicles.13 Of course, the shift of a society’s attitude towards the automobile does not happen overnight, especially since people consider personal mobility an important privilege. People can only be motivated to turn to new types of mobility if they can see and experience alternatives to internal combustion engines. First-hand experience with electric vehicles in everyday life have already convinced many users of their benefits. This type of experience might be gained, for instance, in car-sharing and mobility associations, with electro-mobility integrated in a reasonable fashion. In Amsterdam, this type of e-mo-bility has nearly come to be considered normal. The city itself boasts some
12 Öko-Institut e.V. (2015)13 Radtke, Philipp et al. (2012: 7).
Initial assumption: Discussions at national and international conferences today deal more with the obstacles for market penetration rather than the opportunities resulting from the technological shift. The players in politics, business, and associations tend to focus on what has not been achieved by their respective counterparts. The opportunities are not emphasised.
What other challenges have to be handled in order to make e-mobility a success?
Acceptance in society is an important issue. Conventional mobility has also grown for over 100 years. Germany
The car-making countries are not overly successful with e-mobility. The countries without a car industry of their own are not threatened by e-mobility. Norway
Consumers are conser-vative, they don’t like new things. There are, of course, the early movers, but if you want a big market to get on its feet, you need a large package of incentives. Norway managed this very well. Norway
The attitude must change. The generations are changing, and change is brought about by the young people. Japan
Germany needs less surveys, analyses, and polls, but action. Now a decision has to be made. Otherwise you get stuck. Sometimes you simply must challenge your fortune. US
Electromobility must become clearly visible and affordable without limita-tions. France
32 Results
400 e-taxis14, and at the airport 35 apron e-buses15 take passengers from the gate to their aircraft. In addition, 350 e-vehicles offered by a provider called Car2Go16 are available, which can be parked in the entire city at no charge.
Positive reports by users of e-vehicles on their experiences raise the level of acceptance of e-mobility in their social environment. This “neighbourhood effect” can cause the attitude of people to change. This is even more the case if electric vehicles are privately borrowed or tested together. The resulting spillover effects help boost the market ramp-up of electromobility.
Specific cultural and social features of a “regional ecosystem” can also bolster the acceptance of e-mobility. In California’s Silicon Valley with its open-minded and innovative culture, for instance, new ideas can make their way faster than in other places. Interdisciplinary innovations profit from the creativity in that environment. Apart from that, there is a close interaction between universities, start-ups, and established businesses that help turn creative ideas into marketable products.
Testing electromobility in a limited geographical area can be another promis-ing measure. A good example in this respect is the island of Jeju, where local authorities decided that all vehicles will have to be operated electrically by 2030. To this end, they adopted the so called Carbon Free Island Jeju Plan in 2012. The island has ideal conditions for the introduction of electromobility since it has served as a smart grid pilot test area for several years. Besides, the island is so small that users can go everywhere on a single battery charge.17 This makes the island a real test lab for e-mobility. Technologies and business models that prove successful there, for example with respect to the charging infrastructure, can be implemented on full scale later.
14 Munsch, Elfriede (2015)15 Schiphol Group (2015)16 Schiphol Group (2015)17 IEEE Transportation Electrification Community (2014
Further development of the assumption: User acceptance plays a key role for the successful market penetration of electromobility. In order to make people switch to e-mobility, they need comprehensive information, attractive offers, and especially hands-on experience with e-vehicles. Therefore, it is extremely important to discuss not only the economic and technological aspects of electromobility, but also to consider, investigate, and promote its acceptance by users.
table 03: Country Comparison by Factor.
Results 33
Summary
In summary, it has become evident that some preconditions for electromobility are similar in the markets analysed, but for other factors significant differences were brought to light. Table 03 shows a summary of the specific features in the countries under research with respect to the defined categories. It can be stated that result of the analysis is the great differentiation between the markets. Elec-tromobility must be implemented individually, with adaptations for each mar-ket. Some incentive mechanisms may work well in one country and fail in an-other. Therefore, it is impossible to draw on positive experience from abroad to create an empirically confirmed package of incentives for Germany that ensures the successful expansion of e-mobility. It can be said with certainty, however, that a combination of monetary and non-monetary incentives work efficiently. The five categories defined (see chapter 3.1) show the different dimensions and factors affecting the support of the market ramp-up of electromobility.
Netherlands Norway France China South Korea Japan USA
demand country supply country
Economic innovative supplier industry
no automo-tive industry
risk of losing pros-perity
great market potential
potential for automotive industry to catch up with established players
battery know how
battery know how
battery know how Bwillingness to cooperate and interact between established companies and start-ups
Techno-logical
good charg-ing infra-structure
good charg-ing infrastruc-ture
infrastruc-ture already partially in place
know how of e-drive through cross-indus-try cooper-ation
good charging in-frastructure planned
in-depth competence of e-mobility
good charg-ing infra-structure
long-stand-ing experi-ence with electric drive systems
good infra-structure (in certain regions)
Political numerous incentive mechanisms
consensus across differ-ent groups of society
numerous incentive mechanisms
numerous incentive mecha-nisms
numerous incentive mechanisms
close cooperation between businesses and politics
close cooperation between businesses and politics
Ecological ambitious sustainability targets
almost com-pletely eco-logical energy concept
great pres-sure from air pollution
ambitious sustainability targets (in cer-tain regions)
Social high acceptance in society in terms of sus-tainability
high accept-ance in socie-ty in terms of sustainability
openness of the people for technol-ogies
openness of the people for technol-ogies
environment very open for innovations
testimonials as popularisers
Implications for Germany
Implications for Germany 35
The assessments made by the international experts with respect to the situation in their respective country can be used to draw conclusions - with certain limitations - for the situation in Germany. Notwithstanding specific features in some of these countries, their experience is helpful when discuss-ing the desired transformation processes in Germany.
Market Potential
Battery-electric vehicles will conquer and dominate the German car market in the long run. Plug-in hybrids and 48-volt approaches as bridge technologies will only have a transitional impact on the market.
In Germany, the willingness to grant incentives is less prominent than in some other countries. Therefore, Germany will trail these countries in the market ramp-up.
However, the ecological benefits of e-mobility could take a stronger effect if local authorities took more advantage of the regulatory leeway provided by the new law on electromobility.
Lowering the CO2 limits for the type approval procedures might further boost the market potential of e-vehicles. This decision, however, is in the hands of European agencies.
Product Portfolio
Today, experts from abroad tend to question the commitment of German car makers to developing fully electric models and their readiness to invest in them. Their strategy to rely primarily on plug-in hybrids is met with scepticism and is perceived as a delay in the required transforma-tion process.
The greater the number of electric models in different vehicle categories and for different purposes, the stronger the customers’ demand for e-vehicles. German OEMs should bear this in mind because otherwise they might fall behind in some niches where others make the first offers.
Commercial e-vehicles and low speed electric vehicles (LSEV) have a great demand potential which is currently hardly met by the supply side. German car makers must swiftly expand their model range in this area.
Implications for Germany
36 Implications for Germany
The Role of the Automotive and Supplier Industry
In the case of e-mobility, the automotive industry is faced with the be-ginning of a disruptive technological shift from which it cannot escape in mid-term. For Germany, where the internal combustion engine was invented and optimised, actively promoting this shift and implementing it in business strategies is a major cultural challenge. The transformation from a very sophisticated internal combustion engine to a rather simple electric motor will trigger changes within the domestic industry that are more disruptive than in other countries.
As part of the interaction between industrial policies and entrepreneurial actions, controversies and political “wake-up calls” are required so that the necessary changes are not missed. The industry must use the still open window of opportunity in order to successfully handle the impending transformation process.
Battery Production
The traction battery has a particularly large share of the value creation process of e-vehicles. The production of battery modules and systems is well positioned in Germany and can be expanded. What is missing are technological competence and production sites for battery cells. Politics and businesses have to cooperate to strengthen Germany’s position in this respect, maybe together with companies from Asia. In this process, it can be assumed that production costs will go down faster than expected and power density will increase faster. Acceleration is – as shown by economic history – typical for the success curve of disruptive technologies.
Public Charging Infrastructure
There is urgent need for action on a federal level when it comes to setting up a public charging infrastructure. Here, supplementing regional and local initiatives can be helpful. A well-focused dialogue between federal, regional, and local authorities might jump start the process.
Convenient access to all public charging points is extremely important for the acceptance of e-mobility in Germany. If the market players cannot come to an agreement, regulatory efforts must be made to fulfil customer needs. A special task is the effective integration and unification of the access to charging infrastructure on a European level. This task requires the full support by the federal government.
Implications for Germany 37
Regulatory Framework
In Germany, many regulatory obstacles to e-mobility have either been removed already or are in the process of being removed (e. g. in energy or building law)
Monetary incentives, all of which according to the international experts had a positive effect, still lack political consensus in Germany. Due to Germany’s special status as a “great automobile nation”, the process of consensus-building is obviously different from countries without domestic car production. Therefore, positive examples from countries like Norway or the Netherlands are of particular value since they can help extend the seemingly limited scope of action in Germany.
Challenges during Market Ramp-up and the Role of Politics
In principle, the interaction between politics, businesses, research insti-tutions, and associations on the National Platform Electromobility is con-sidered helpful. A clear effect on the transformation process in Germany is attributed to this platform, even though it could work more efficiently. The conflict of interest between the domestic car industry and the goals of climate control may indeed result in softening both the contents of the discussions and the recommendations by the NPE and in steering them in an interest-oriented manner. Such target conflicts, however, cannot be resolved. For this reason, the international experts recommend to focus more on actions: Less talking and recommendations, more direct and concrete actions.
Parallel Impact Research
Parallel Impact Research 39
The promotional programme “Electromobility showcase” is the imple-mentation of one of the key measures of the “Electromobility” programme adopted by the German Federal Government in 2011. The aim of the pro-gramme is to streamline and present German competencies in the fields of e-vehicles, power supply, and transport systems across systems by means of large-scale regional demonstration and pilot projects. Through close cooperation between industry, science, and central government, innova-tive elements of electromobility will be tested. They will serve to generate public awareness including national and international demand. In the four showcase regions, 90 combined projects with 334 sub-projects are being supported by the federal government from 2012 to 2016. Other pro-jects are supported by state governments and other participants. In order to make the overall knowledge and experience gained generally known, the federal government has commissioned parallel impact research of the showcase project. The main responsibility of this function is to organise an effective knowledge transfer between projects and the professional public, thus contributing to an ongoing improvement in the showcase pro-ject and further development of Germany’s expertise in electromobility.
Parallel Impact Research
Appendix
Appendix A
Bibliography
AustriaTech – Gesellschaft des Bundes für technologiepolitische Maßnahmen GmbH (2015): Pushing the deployment of electric vehi-cles. Options for policy makers. Available at: http://www.select-project.eu/sites/select-project.eu/files/attachments/elocot_cleanpowerfortrans-port_hans-juergensalmhofer2.pdf, Last access: 29 October 2015
Bloomberg News (2014): China Requires 30% of State Cars Use Alternative Energy. Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti-cles/2014-07-13/china-targets-30-new-government-vehicles-use-alterna-tive-energy. Last access: 06 November 2015
Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicles Initiative, Interna-tional Energy Agency (2013): Global EV Outlook. Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/globalevoutlook_2013.pdf. Last access: 29 October 2015
eNova Strategiekreis Elektromobilität (2015): Bestandsaufnahme. Lithium-Ionen-Batterien für die Elektromobilität. Available at: http://www.strategiekreis-elektromobilitaet.de/public/oeffentliche-dokumente/bestandsaufnahme-li-ionenbatterien-fuer-die-elektromobilitaet/at_down-load/file. Last access: 12 November 2015
Figenbaum, Erik; Kolbenstvedt, Marika (2013): Electromobility in Norway -experiences and opportunities with Electric vehicles. Available at: https://www.toi.no/getfile.php/Publikasjoner/T%C3%98I%20rapport-er/2013/1276-2013/1276-2013-sum.pdf. Last access: 29 October 2015
Gao, Paul et al. (2015): Supercharging the Development of Electric Ve-hicles in China. Available at: http://www.mckinseychina.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/McKinsey-China_Electric-Vehicle-Report_April-2015-EN.pdf?bd0bde. Last access: 29 October 2015
Hwang, Sang kyu (2015): Comparative Study on Electric Vehicle Poli-cies between Korea and EU Countries. Available at: http://www.a3ps.at/site/sites/default/files/downloads/evs28/papers/E2-01.pdf. Last access: 29 October 2015
IEEE Transportation Electrification Community (2014): Korean Island Plans for All Cars to Be Electric by 2030. Available at: http://tec.ieee.org/previous-news/korean-island-plans-cars-electric-2030/. Last access: 04 November 2015
Appendix
B Appendix
Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg (2011): Die Umweltbilanz muss stimmen. Available at: http://ifeu.de/ver-kehrundumwelt/pdf/Umwelt04_2011_Elektromobilitaet.pdf. Last access: 04 November 2015
IRS (2015): Qualified Vehicles Acquired after 12-31-2009. Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicles (IRC 30D). Available at: https://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Qualified-Vehicles-Acquired-after-12-31-2009. Last access: 30 October 2015
McKinsey (2015): Electric Vehicle Index. Available at: http://www.mckinsey.de/elektromobilitaet. Last access: 06 November 2015
McKinsey (2014): EVolution. Electric vehicles in Europe: gearing up for a new phase? Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McK-insey%20Offices/Netherlands/Latest%20thinking/PDFs/Electric-Vehi-cle-Report-EN_AS%20FINAL.ashx.
Mock, Peter; Yang, Zifei (2014): Driving Electrification. A Global Comparison of Fiscal Incentive Policy for Electric Vehicles. Available at: http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV-fis-cal-incentives_20140506.pdf. Last access: 29 October 2015
Munsch, Elfriede (2015): Mit E-Auto gibt’s den Parkplatz schneller. Available at: http://www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2015-05/elektroauto-amster-dam-elektromobilitaet/komplettansicht. Last access: 04 November 2015
National Conference of State Legislatures (2015): State Efforts Promote Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. Available at: http://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/state-electric-vehicle-incentives-state-chart.aspx. Last access: 30 October 2015
Nykvist, Björn; Nilsson, Måns (2015): Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Available at: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html. Last access: 04 November 2015
Öko-Institut e.V. (2015): Elektromobilität in Deutschland: CO2-Bilanz hängt vom Ladestrom ab – zusätzlicher Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien wäre für Emissionsreduktion notwendig. Available at: http://www.oeko.de/presse/presseinformationen/archiv-presseinformationen/2015/elek-tromobilitaet-in-deutschland-co2-bilanz-haengt-vom-ladestrom-ab-zusae-tzlicher-ausbau-erneuerbarer-energien-waere-fuer-emissionsreduk-tion-notwendig/. Last access: 04 November 2015
Appendix C
Radtke, Philipp et al. (2012): Profiling Japan’s early EV adopters. A survey of the attitudes and behaviors of early electric vehicle buyers in Japan. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dot-com/client_service/Automotive and Assembly/PDFs/Profiling_Japans_early_EV_adopters.ashx. Last access: 04 November 2015
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants (2014): Index Elektromobilität. 3rd quarter 2014. Available at: http://www.rolandberger.de/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Index_Elektromobilitaet_3_Quartal_2014_20140919.pdf. Last access: 06 November 2015
Sarasini, Steven et al. (2013): Electrifying the Automotive Industry via R&D Collaborations. Available at: http://publications.lib.chalmers.se/records/fulltext/211454/local_211454.pdf. Last access: 06 November 2015
Schiphol Group (2015): Schiphol deploys 35 electric buses. Avail-able at: http://www.schiphol.nl/SchipholGroup/NewsMedia/Pressre-leaseItem/SchipholDeploys35ElectricBuses.htm. Last access: 04 Novem-ber 2015
VDI/VDE-IT (2015): Electric Vehicle Supply Chain. Global Opportuni-ties for Electric Mobility: Korea. Available at: https://www.vdivde-it.de/eutool-go4sem/public/global-opportunities/south-korea-1/electric-vehi-cle-supply-chain. Last access: 29 October 2015
German Association of the Automotive Industry, VDA (2014): Zahlen und Daten. Available at: https://www.vda.de/de/services/zahl-en-und-daten/zahlen-und-daten-uebersicht.html. Last access: 04 Novem-ber 2015
Vergis, Sydney; Turrentine, Thomas S.; Fulton, Lewis; Fulton, Elizabeth (2014): Plug-In Electric Vehicles: A Case Study of Seven Markets. Available at: http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/research/publications/publication-detail/?pub_id=2369. Last access: 29 October 2015
Witkamp, Bert (2015): Transition to electric mobility may start within a decade. Opportunities and responsibilities of the European automotive industry. Presentation given at the World of Energy Solutions on 14 Octo-ber 2015 in Stuttgart.
D Appendix
Results Documents of the Parallel Impact Research
Results Document No. 05 Good E-Roaming Practice Practical Guide to Interconnecting the Charging Infrastructure in the Electromobility Showcases
Results Document No. 17 International Benchmarking on the Status Quo of Electromobility in Germany 2015
Results Document No. 06 Questions about electric vehicles: How does data about energy consumption and range of electric vehicles come about?
Results Document No. 18 A second life for traction batteries of electric cars is economically and ecologically recommendable
One Pager
Several Results Documents are available in German www.schaufenster-elektromobilitaet.org
International Benchmarkingon the Status Quo of Electromobility in Germany 2015
Results Document of the Parallel Impact Research 17
A second life for traction batteries of electric cars is economically and ecologically recommendable
The study “Second-Life Concepts for Lithium-Ion Batteries from Electric Cars” commissioned by the Parallel Impact Research of the Electric Mobility Showcase shows that there is a significant economical and ecological potential for second-life concepts if the market for electromobility and battery storage grows as expected. In order to achieve this potential, standards for battery modules, techno- logical progress in the recuperation process and clear legal frame conditions are necessary.
In more detail, the study determined the following key results:
▪ Two promising second-life applications are the supply of balancing power for electricity grid operations and the use as house storage units coupled to photovoltaic systems. They could also play a role in emergency power supply, for powering forklifts, in peak load management of bulk consumers and for power buffering in quick charging poles.
▪ Proof of the cost effectiveness of second-life applications can also be found when calculating according to the capital value method for the supply of primary balancing power (PRL) as well as for usage in house storage systems (HSS). Compared with the usage of new batteries with the same cell chemistry, the forecast for the increase of capital value for PRL is 33%, and the improvement for HSS 26%. The impact of a further use of a battery on the purchase price of an electric car lies only at 3%.
▪ The environmental advantages of second-life batteries are evident if their use reduces the production of new batteries. Under the conditions selected in this study, a greenhouse gas saving potential from 34 to 106 kg CO2-equivalent for the supply of primary balancing power and from 30 to 95 kg CO2-equivalent for the use as house storage systems was determined per kWh of nominal capacity of the traction battery. The use of second-life storage systems also reduces the new demand for critical resources such as nickel and lithium.
▪ If traction batteries are recycled with a remaining capacity of 80% for second-life applications, their maximum market value will be at approx. 50% of the cost of a new battery. The remaining value of a second-life battery is heavily impacted by the development of the associated recycling cost. In theory, a cash payment by the party with recycling obligation to the recycling company would be an option through a substantial delay of recycling due to second-life applications in case of decreasing recycling cost.
▪ Essential adjustment factors for the success of second-life products lie in the optimization of recycling and detailed information about the applications:
▫ Testing traction battery modules for the recyclability in second-life batteries is associated with high costs. There is a need for quick aging tests and even more for continuous recording of suitable status sizes in the first application.
▫ The requirements of safety regulations need to be taken into consideration. This especially applies to Transport Norm UN 38.3 which provides for a renewed evaluation for rest capacities lower than 80%.
▫ The better the load profile of the second-life application is adjusted to the aging condition of the traction battery, the longer the maximum application time can be: Generally, high charging rates, high end voltages and especially high (and low) temperatures should be avoided in second life.
▫ Growing understanding of aging processes and further development of the cell chemistry should prevent excessive, non-linear aging and increase the cost-effectiveness of second-life applications even further.
Contact: Ehsan Rahimzei – VDE e. V.Leader cross-cutting issues electric vehicle and battery ■ Parallel Impact Research of the Electric Mobility Showcase [email protected] ■ http://schaufenster-elektromobilitaet.org
Good E-Roaming PracticePractical Guide to Interconnecting the ChargingInfrastructure in the Electromobility Showcases
Publikationender Begleit- und Wirkungsforschung Schaufenster Elektromobilität
Appendix E
For your notes
F Appendix
Legal informationEditor Begleit- und Wirkungsforschung Schaufenster Elektromobilität (BuW) results document no. 17
Deutsches Dialog Institut GmbH Eschersheimer Landstraße 223 D-60320 Frankfurt am Main phone: +49 69 153003-0 fax: +49 69 153003-66 [email protected] www.schaufenster-elektromobilitaet.org
Authors Dr. Bertram Harendt, Deutsches Dialog Institut GmbH Lisa Körner, Deutsches Dialog Institut GmbH Elena Läßle, Deutsches Dialog Institut GmbH Stefan Oehmen, Deutsches Dialog Institut GmbH
Fotos © iconshow / Fotolia (Flags titel / figures 02, 05 / tables 02, 03) WeStudio / shutterstock.com, pan demin / shutterstock.com, Lisa S. / shutterstock.com, Sopotnicki / shutterstock.com, Vereshchagin Dmitry / shutterstock.com, Pkproject / shutterstock.com (figure 08) ruigsantos / shutterstock.com (page 39)
Editing Wissenswort, Joachim Pietzsch
Layout, Typesetting, Illustration Medien&Räume | Kerstin Gewalt
Translated from German by Roland Dilger
The Consortium Partners
Contact for public relationDeutsches Dialog Institut GmbH ∙ Eschersheimer Landstr. 223 ∙ D-60320 Frankfurt am Main+49 69 153003-0 ∙ [email protected] · www.schaufenster-elektromobilitaet.org
▪ Deutsches Dialog Institut GmbH Eschersheimer Landstr. 223 · D-60320 Frankfurt am Main www.dialoginstitut.de
▪ BridgingIT GmbH N7, 5–6 · D-68161 Mannheim www.bridging-it.de
▪ VDE Verband der Elektrotechnik Elektronik Informationstechnik e. V. Technik & Innovation · Stresemannallee 15 · D-60596 Frankfurt am Main www.vde.com
TheFederal Government
