International Air PollutionInternational Air Pollution

OutlineOutline

IntroductionIntroduction conceptsconcepts Acid Rain in EuropeAcid Rain in Europe

the the Problem:Problem: Convention: LRTAPConvention: LRTAP Implementing LRTAPImplementing LRTAP Evaluating successEvaluating success

Ozone DepletionOzone Depletion Initiatives in responding to the ozone problemInitiatives in responding to the ozone problem NegotiationsNegotiations Montreal Protocol, 1987.Montreal Protocol, 1987.

IntroductionIntroduction ScopeScope

Acid rain in EuropeAcid rain in Europe Ozone depletionOzone depletion Climate changeClimate change

The challenge:The challenge:Formation of an international environmental Formation of an international environmental governance regime in the absence of an governance regime in the absence of an international government.international government.

- Hypothesize- Hypothesize that a country will (not) participate depending that a country will (not) participate depending on:on:

a) its calculation of factors such as: a) its calculation of factors such as: 1. Metrics [interaction] of ecological vulnerability and abatement 1. Metrics [interaction] of ecological vulnerability and abatement

costs costs 2. Preferred emission reduction strategies [question of design of 2. Preferred emission reduction strategies [question of design of

proposed regime]proposed regime]3. Sense of honor? 3. Sense of honor? 4. National interests4. National interests5. Problem validity = epistemic controversy regarding cause and 5. Problem validity = epistemic controversy regarding cause and

mitigation [sometimes invoked opportunistically]mitigation [sometimes invoked opportunistically]and,and,b) the higher the density of interaction of these factors in the b) the higher the density of interaction of these factors in the

negative direction, the more difficult it will be for a country to negative direction, the more difficult it will be for a country to get on board.get on board.

Strategy by designers of a regimeStrategy by designers of a regime

- Specify how signatories must act, - Specify how signatories must act,

-incentive structures-incentive structures Key conceptsKey concepts

((Framework) ConventionFramework) Convention

- Establishes general principles, norms and goals.- Establishes general principles, norms and goals. ProtocolProtocol

agree on more specific targets than the generalagree on more specific targets than the general

provisions of the parent convention.provisions of the parent convention.

Signing and,Signing and, ratificationratification [binding within national jurisdiction] [binding within national jurisdiction]

Acid Rain in EuropeAcid Rain in Europe

Problem:Problem:Transboundary transport of pollutants and their effectsTransboundary transport of pollutants and their effects - How international?- How international?

Europe:Europe:- Britain’s impact on Scandinavian countries. - Britain’s impact on Scandinavian countries. - 1977 OECD study showed that the problem was 1977 OECD study showed that the problem was

transboundary.transboundary.

• North America: Disproportionate flow of NOx from North America: Disproportionate flow of NOx from U.S. to Canada;U.S. to Canada;

- ecosystem damage in Canada.- ecosystem damage in Canada.-Resultant concern motivated international drive to forge a -Resultant concern motivated international drive to forge a

convention, hence LRTAP.convention, hence LRTAP.

Convention: LRTAP.Convention: LRTAP.

Leaders:Leaders: a) Scandinaviana) Scandinavian

- initiated debate thro’ ECE- initiated debate thro’ ECE; US and Canada members]; US and Canada members]- Result: 1972 OECD commissioned a study; findings - Result: 1972 OECD commissioned a study; findings published in 1977published in 1977

b) France and Italyb) France and Italy- no problem contracting because were in hydro and - no problem contracting because were in hydro and nuclear energy.nuclear energy.

LaggardsLaggards: Britain, Poland, and U.S.: Britain, Poland, and U.S.a) Britain-a) Britain-

- international and costly abatement measures not - international and costly abatement measures not favoredfavored. .

- - 90% energy was fossil fuels, clear cost/benefit 90% energy was fossil fuels, clear cost/benefit issueissue

- action would benefit others - action would benefit others

- - Britain argued: Britain argued: - science on source inconclusive; more research.- science on source inconclusive; more research.- no binding commitments, just general statements.- no binding commitments, just general statements.

b) Germanyb) Germany- initially, but later changed- initially, but later changed discovery of black forest in the 1980s + Green Party discovery of black forest in the 1980s + Green Party

effects.effects. Ambitious sulfur reduction target (50% in 10 years)Ambitious sulfur reduction target (50% in 10 years) Emission limits for large industrial utilitiesEmission limits for large industrial utilities Requirement to adopt Best Available TechnologyRequirement to adopt Best Available Technology

LRTAP Convention, 1979.LRTAP Convention, 1979.

-Parties – European states [32 +E.U., now almost 50], U.S. -Parties – European states [32 +E.U., now almost 50], U.S. and Canada.and Canada.

-Aim: - -Aim: - [["endeavor to [["endeavor to limitlimit and, and, as far as possibleas far as possible, gradually reduce and prevent , gradually reduce and prevent

air pollution, including long-range transboundary air pollution . . . [using] air pollution, including long-range transboundary air pollution . . . [using] the best available technology which is economically feasible …." the best available technology which is economically feasible …."

ProvisionsProvisions include: monitoring and research. include: monitoring and research.e.g. Regulationse.g. Regulations

Emission ceilings/caps [country-specific]Emission ceilings/caps [country-specific] Best Available Technology standards [sources]Best Available Technology standards [sources] Ecosystem sensitivity assessments [critical loads= threshold Ecosystem sensitivity assessments [critical loads= threshold

beyond which there will be damage to ecosystem sensitive beyond which there will be damage to ecosystem sensitive to ecosystem]to ecosystem]

Implementing LRTAP: ProtocolsImplementing LRTAP: Protocols

a) Protocol on general Issue.a) Protocol on general Issue. - 1984 Protocol to fund EMEP: - 1984 Protocol to fund EMEP:

European Monitoring and Evaluation Program European Monitoring and Evaluation Program

[Role of Information][Role of Information] - Model air emissions transfers and depositions- Model air emissions transfers and depositions - EMEP “Blame Matrices:” sources and receptors of - EMEP “Blame Matrices:” sources and receptors of

pollution in Europepollution in Europe - Helped reduce scientific uncertainty about - Helped reduce scientific uncertainty about

transboundary factor in acid rain in 1980s.transboundary factor in acid rain in 1980s.

B) Pollutant-specific ProtocolsB) Pollutant-specific Protocols

Sulfur dioxides [Helsinki, 1985 [force 1987]Sulfur dioxides [Helsinki, 1985 [force 1987]-reduce emissions or transboundary fluxes of sulfur at -reduce emissions or transboundary fluxes of sulfur at

least 30 % (from 1980 levels) by 1993.; least 30 % (from 1980 levels) by 1993.; -second sulfur protocol (Oslo 1994). reduce the gap -second sulfur protocol (Oslo 1994). reduce the gap between existing and critical loads 60 percent by between existing and critical loads 60 percent by 2000. 2000.

Nitrogen oxides [Sofia, Bulgaria 1988 [force, 1991 Nitrogen oxides [Sofia, Bulgaria 1988 [force, 1991 Volatile Organic Compounds [VOCs] [Geneva 1991 Volatile Organic Compounds [VOCs] [Geneva 1991

Gothenburg Protocol [1999] -Cuts in SO2, NOx, VOCs, Gothenburg Protocol [1999] -Cuts in SO2, NOx, VOCs, and ammonia emissions by 2010 from 1990 levels and ammonia emissions by 2010 from 1990 levels [ceilings assigned individually] [table].[ceilings assigned individually] [table].

Acid Rain Regime a success?Acid Rain Regime a success?

a) Sulfur dioxidea) Sulfur dioxide Europe:Europe:- upto over 80 % in some countries; others more than - upto over 80 % in some countries; others more than

halved; others reduced by more than one-third.halved; others reduced by more than one-third.- E U average: nearly 50% reductions of emissions.E U average: nearly 50% reductions of emissions.

North AmericaNorth America - Canada cut emissions by one-third; - Canada cut emissions by one-third; - United States (power plants 40%; total 28%)- United States (power plants 40%; total 28%)

b) Nitrogen oxideb) Nitrogen oxide- Major reduction was in rage of 21-26 %.- Major reduction was in rage of 21-26 %.- Other countries increased emissions by 15 to 40 %. - Other countries increased emissions by 15 to 40 %. - European average was just 2 % [problem: growth of road - European average was just 2 % [problem: growth of road

traffic and nitrogen emissions from agriculture.traffic and nitrogen emissions from agriculture.

Accounting for success?Accounting for success?

a) Focus on Information –EMEPa) Focus on Information –EMEP- improved scientific understanding: - reduce variance on - improved scientific understanding: - reduce variance on

sense of vulnerabilitysense of vulnerabilityb) Dramatic opportunities – post-communism, E.U b) Dramatic opportunities – post-communism, E.U

membership and geographical expansion of CLRTAP. membership and geographical expansion of CLRTAP.

CautionCaution: role of forces unrelated to regime –for some : role of forces unrelated to regime –for some countries.countries.- changes in energy policies- changes in energy policies

- Netherlands, Britain: conversion to domestic - Netherlands, Britain: conversion to domestic natural gas.natural gas.

- fundamental economic and industrial changes- fundamental economic and industrial changes- E.U. process.- E.U. process.

OZONE DEPLETION [Vienna convention (1985 )and OZONE DEPLETION [Vienna convention (1985 )and Montreal Protocol, 1987]Montreal Protocol, 1987]

Destruction of the Ozone LayerDestruction of the Ozone Layer

Solving/Responding to the Ozone ProblemSolving/Responding to the Ozone Problem

Two major initiatives: U.S and globalTwo major initiatives: U.S and globalU.S. initiatives: U.S. initiatives: a) Domestic fronta) Domestic frontReady to ban before international actionReady to ban before international actionPublic concern and organized pressure?Public concern and organized pressure?

b) Internationallyb) Internationally 1972 U.S. raised issue at UN Conference on Human Env. at 1972 U.S. raised issue at UN Conference on Human Env. at

Stockholm; call for Stockholm; call for research on the ozone problem.research on the ozone problem. U.S. tabled issue at NATO Conference in 1975 [EPA U.S. tabled issue at NATO Conference in 1975 [EPA

initiative].initiative]. 1977 UNEP’s coordinating committee on Ozone layer.1977 UNEP’s coordinating committee on Ozone layer. Negotiations on a binding agreement began in 1981.Negotiations on a binding agreement began in 1981.

-difficulties-difficulties

Difficult Negotiations:Difficult Negotiations:- scientific uncertainty still high.- scientific uncertainty still high.

E.g. 1984 international scientific program still E.g. 1984 international scientific program still lacked lacked a consensus by 1985. a consensus by 1985.

- Large producers: Britain, France, Italy, and Spain, - Large producers: Britain, France, Italy, and Spain, therefore, resisted stringent Measures vs. countries thattherefore, resisted stringent Measures vs. countries thatwanted strong controls [Toronto Group: Canada, Finland,wanted strong controls [Toronto Group: Canada, Finland,Norway, SwedenNorway, Sweden - 1985 Vienna Convention signed. Provided for:- 1985 Vienna Convention signed. Provided for:

cooperation in research, monitoring and cooperation in research, monitoring and information information exchange exchange

- 1985 discovery of ozone “hole” in Antarctica - 1985 discovery of ozone “hole” in Antarctica

Montreal Protocol, 1987.Montreal Protocol, 1987.

AimAim: regulate and phase out Ozone Depleting : regulate and phase out Ozone Depleting Substances [ODS]Substances [ODS]

NegotiationsNegotiationsa) impact of domestic actors [U.S. industry]a) impact of domestic actors [U.S. industry]b) b) Epistemic community- inconclusive Epistemic community- inconclusive

opinion [fed into tactics of industry opinion [fed into tactics of industry lobbyists.lobbyists.- By 1987, near unanimity on adverse effects, - By 1987, near unanimity on adverse effects,

gave credibility to proponents of ban.gave credibility to proponents of ban.c) Issue played into N.-S. divide on Env. & c) Issue played into N.-S. divide on Env. & DevelopmentDevelopment

How they managed to secure an agreementHow they managed to secure an agreement Financial mechanisms Financial mechanisms Support diffusion of technology on substitutes for Support diffusion of technology on substitutes for ODS in developing countries.ODS in developing countries. Role of hegemon [ U.S. took lead]Role of hegemon [ U.S. took lead]

Carrot and stick strategyCarrot and stick strategy- cushioned developing countries [10 years delay]- cushioned developing countries [10 years delay]- Control of trade in ODS with non-participants.- Control of trade in ODS with non-participants.

Dramatic opportunity: possibility of substitutes for CFCs, Dramatic opportunity: possibility of substitutes for CFCs, so industry softened, especially with financial mechanism so industry softened, especially with financial mechanism promising a market in developing countries.promising a market in developing countries.

Industrial countries cut production and Industrial countries cut production and consumption of CFCs to 50% of 1986 consumption of CFCs to 50% of 1986 levels by 1999 levels by 1999

Significance Significance First application of principle of common but First application of principle of common but

differentiated responsibilities.differentiated responsibilities. Financial mechanism first of its type in IEA.Financial mechanism first of its type in IEA.

Montreal Protocol Success?Montreal Protocol Success?

Developing countries not prohibited [but Developing countries not prohibited [but then it was the only way they’d participate]then it was the only way they’d participate]

Compliance problems [illegal trade-RussiaCompliance problems [illegal trade-Russia

Post-Montreal Protocol developemntsPost-Montreal Protocol developemnts

Shift towards complete phaseout of CFCsShift towards complete phaseout of CFCs- Further development in scientific evidence- Further development in scientific evidence

- 1988 Ozone Trends Panel released study - 1988 Ozone Trends Panel released study showing human-generated chlorine species showing human-generated chlorine species responsible for decrease in ozone.responsible for decrease in ozone.

- In U.S., Du Pont’s announced a CFC manufacturing - In U.S., Du Pont’s announced a CFC manufacturing stop by century end; so U.S. called for a complete stop by century end; so U.S. called for a complete phaseout by 2000.phaseout by 2000.- Britain: softening due to pressure by environmentalists - Britain: softening due to pressure by environmentalists and parliament. PM hosted a meeting where EU and parliament. PM hosted a meeting where EU resolved to back U.S. in calling for phaseout.resolved to back U.S. in calling for phaseout.