,

International Advisory CommitteeH.E. Yoweri K. Museveni (chair)President of Uganda

The Honorable Mr. Ibrahim AdamMinister of Food & Agriculture, Ghana

Mr. J. Brian Atwood, AdministratorUnited States Agency for International Development

Senator Sartaj Aziz, Chairman,Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

The Hon. Dr. Sjarifuddin BaharsjahMinister of Agriculture, Indonesia

Dr. Keith A. Bezanson, PresidentInternational Development Research Centre (IDRC),Canada

Dr. Christian Bonte-FriedheimDirector General, International Service for NationalAgricultural Research (ISNAR)

Dr. Norman E. Borlaug, PresidentSasakawa Africa Association, do CIMMYT

Dr. Lester Brown, President·Worldwatch Institute, U.s.A.

Ms. Margaret Cadey-Carlson, PresidentThe Population Council, U.s.A.

Professor Chen ChunmingSenior Advisor &: PresidentChinese Academy of Preventive Medicine

Dr. E. Walter Coward,Jr., DirectorFord Foundation

Dr. Nitin Desai, Under-Secretary-GeneralThe United Nations

Ms. Elizabeth Dowdeswell, Under-Secretary-GeneralUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Dr. Hansjorg Elshorst, Director GeneralDeutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit(GTZ), Germany

Mr. Phillip Flood AO, Director GeneralAustralian International Development Assistance Bureau(AIDAB)

Dr. Kathryn Fuller, PresidentWorld Wildlife Fund, U.s.A.

Dr. Bo Goransson, Director GeneralSwedish International Development Authority (SIDA)

Mr. Michel Griffon, DirecteurCentre de cooperation internationale en rechercheagronomique pour Ie developpement (CIRAD), France

Dr. Kenzo Hemmi, ProfessorToyo Eiwa Women's University, Japan

Dr. Robert W. Herdt, DirectorRockefeller Foundation

Mr. Johan Holmberg, Director of ProgrammesSwedish Agency for Research Cooperation withDeveloping Countries (SAREC)

Dr. Francis Idachaba, Vice ChancellorUniversity of Agriculture (Makurdi), Nigeria

Dr. Henry Kendall, ChairmanUnion of Concerned Scientists, U.S.A.

Dr. Abbas Kesseba, DirectorInternational Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)

Ms. Huguette Labelle, PresidentCanadian International Development Agency (CIDA)

Sra. Margarita Marino de BoteroCorporacion EI Colegio Verde, Colombia

H.E. Sra. Rebeca Grynspan MayufisVice President of Costa Rica

Dr. Alexander F. McCalla, DirectorThe World Bank

Mr. Robert S. McNamaraGlobal Coalition for Africa, U.S.A.

Mr. Harris Mule, Executive DirectorTop Investment &: Management Services(TIMS), Ltd., Kenya

Dr. Gustavo NoresArgentina

Dr. Olusegun Obasanjo, ChairmanAfrica Leadership Forum, U.S.A.

Dr. David Pimentel, Professor,Cornell University, U.S.A.

Dr. Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Director GeneralInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Professor V. RamalingaswamiProfessor EmeritusAll India Institute of Medical Sciences

Dr. George H.L. Rothschild, Director GeneralInternational Rice Research Institute (IRRI)

The Honorable Mrs. Victoria Sekitoleko, Minister ofAgriculture, Uganda

Dr. Amartya Sen, Lamont University ProfessorHarvard University

Dr. Ismail Serageldin, Vice President,The World Bank; Chairman, Consultative Group onInternational Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

Dr. Ammar Siamwalla, PresidentThailand Development Research Institute

Dr. James Gustave Speth, AdministratorUnited Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Dr. M.S. Swaminathan, ChairmanM.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, India

Dr. Joachim von Braun, ProfessorUniversity of Kiel, Germany

The Hon. Prof. Dr. Youssef WallyDeputy Prime Minister and Minister of Agricultureand Land Reclamation, Egypt

Mr. Klaus Winkel, HeadDanish International Development Agency(DANIDA)

A 2020 Visionfor Food,Agriculture,and theEnvironment

The Vision,Challenge, andRecomnlendedAction

October 1995

International Food PolicyResearch Institute1200 Seventeenth Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036-3006

--v I S ION

ContentsPreface v

Overview 1

The Vision 5

The Challenge 7

Recommended Action 23

What If We Do Not Take Action? 41

Regional Strategies to Realize the 2020 Vision 43

Appendix 47

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Preface

Considerable disagreement prevailson the magnitude and nature ofthe world's food and environmen­

tal problems. Many people complacentlybelieve that future food needs will be metthrough technological breakthroughs thatwill happen without any special effort toincrease food production, that the dan­gers of resource loss have been exagger­ated, and that global food surpluses are asufficient guarantee of world food securi­ty, even for low-income developing coun­tries and people. Others counter that thelimits of production are being reached,that new technologies will not be able toraise agricultural productivity and pro­duction sufficiently to meet growingneeds, and that natural resources arebeing depleted at an alarming rate.

Concerned about the lack of a long­term vision and a consensus on whatactions are needed to achieve it, theInternational Food Policy ResearchInstitute (IFPRI) , in collaboration withseveral national and international institu­tions, launched an initiative on A 2020Vision for Food, Agriculture, and theEnvironment. The initiative has twoobjectives: (1) to develop and promote avision for eradicating hunger and malnu­trition while protecting the environment;and (2) to generate information andencourage debate to influence action bynational governments, nongovernmentalorganizations (NGOs), the private sector,and international development institu­tions to realize the 2020 Vision.

The initiative, launched in 1993,builds on food policy research by IFPRIand others and relies on data from manysources, most notably the Food and

Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations (FAO). In addition to conduct­ing analyses and syntheses on many top­ics related to food, agriculture, and theenvironment, the initiative has broughttogether policymakers, analysts, and offi­cials of governments, NGOs, and the pri­vate sector in workshops and consulta­tions to share their knowledge on selectedtopics and to bring that knowledge tobear on recommendations for action.Besides topical consultations, regionalworkshops in Sub-Saharan Africa, SouthAsia, and Latin America have facilitatedthe development of regional strategies byselect groups of policymakers, advisers,analysts, and others knowledgeable aboutthe issues in each of these regions.

Results from the 2020 Vision initia­tive are disseminated in policy briefs, dis­cussion papers, news articles, and books,and through conferences, symposia, andpress briefings in several countries,including an international conference inWashington, D.C., on]une 13-15, 1995.The 2020 Vision initiative offers a forumfor debate through News and Views, abimonthly newsletter. The written outputis distributed to more than 3,300 individ­uals and institutions in 125 countries.

The 2020 Vision initiative is directedby a steering committee of IFPRI staffchaired by the director general and guid­ed by an international advisory commit­tee of distinguished individuals chairedby H. E. President Yoweri Museveni ofUganda. An expert advisory committeeguides communications and publicawareness activities. Discussion papersare reviewed by a committee of reviewersfrom outside IFPRI as well as by IFPRI

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staff. The 2020 Vision initiative receivesfinancial support from more than 20countries, international organizations,development institutions, foundations,and private companies.

This document builds on past IFPRIresearch and on analyses and synthesesundertaken as part of the initiative on A2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, andthe Environment. It is an outcome ofextensive discussions within IFPRI and ofextensive consultations with a large num­ber of people in government and NGOs,international assistance agencies, academ­ic institutions, national and internationalagricultural research centers, and theinternational advisory committee.Comments on an earlier draft werereceived from participants at the interna­tional conference held in Washington,D.C., in 1995.

The preparation of this document wascoordinated by Per Pinstrup-Andersen,Rajul Pandya-Lorch, David Nygaard, andBarbara Rose, with substantial contribu­tions from many others, including IFPRIstaff members. The responsibility for thecontent of this document rests solely withIFPRI.

The action program recommended inthis document is aimed primarily atdeveloping-country governments andinternational assistance agencies becausethese institutions strongly influence thepolitical, social, and economic frameworkwithin which civil society, includingNGOs and the private sector, will playacritical role in realizing the 2020 Vision.

Per Pinstrup-AndersenDirector General

Overview

Although hunger, malnutrition,and environmental degradationare rampant in the developing

world, and although the world populationwill grow by an unprecedented 90 millionpeople a year in the next quarter century,many people have developed a dangeroussense of complacency about the currentand future food, agriculture, and environ­ment situation. Troubled by this compla­cency and a corresponding lack of fore­sight, IFPRI launched an initiative on A2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, andthe Environment in order to develop andpromote a vision and an action plan foreradicating hunger and malnutritionwhile protecting the environment.

IFPRI's 2020 Vision is "a world whereevery person has access to sufficient food tosustain a healthy and productive life, wheremalnutrition is absent, and where foodoriginates from efficient, effective, and low­cost food systems that are compatible withsustainable use of natural resources."

Nine key challenges must be over­come for the 2020 Vision to be realized:

• Food security and nutrition. Today;800 million people are food insecure,while 185 million preschool childrenare seriously underweight for their age.2020 Vision research projects that, withbusiness as usual, the number of mal­nourished children is likely to declineonly slightly to 156 million by 2020.

• Poverty and economic growth. Over1.1 billion people live on incomes of adollar a day or less per person. Thegap between the rich and the poor iswidening.

• Human resource development. One­third of primary school enrollees dropout by Grade 4, I billion people lackaccess to health services, 1.3 billionpeople consume unsafe water, andalmost 2 billion do not have access toadequate sanitation systems.

• Food demand and diet changes. 2020Vision research projects per capitademand for foodgrains to increase byless than 3 percent, for livestock prod­ucts by 17 percent, and for roots andtubers by I percent.

• Population growth and movements. Inthe next 25 years, about 90 millionpeople are likely to be added to theworld's population every year, thedeveloping world's urban population isexpected to more than double, andinvoluntary displacements of peopleare likely to increase.

• Food supply. Increased food produc­tion will have to come from more effi­cient use of land already under cultiva­tion; significant expansion of cultivatedarea is not feasible in most of theworld. But growth in food productionhas begun to lag.

• Natural resources and agriculturalinputs. Degradation of naturalresources undermines productioncapacity: 2 billion hectares have beendegraded in the past 50 years, 180 mil­lion hectares of tropical forests wereconverted to other uses during the19805, marine fisheries are collapsingin parts of the world, and seasonal andregional water shortages afflict mostdeveloping countries.

·The hey challengeto realizing the

2020 Vision is toovercome the lack ofcommitment and todevelop thepolitical will toeradicate povertyand hunger and toprotect the naturalresource base.

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• Markets, infrastructure, and interna­tional trade. As a result of inefficientmarkets and poor infrastructure, foodmarketing costs are too high, impedingaccess to food by the poor. Integratingdeveloping countries into the globaleconomy through international tradewill influence their long-term econom­ic prospects.

• Domestic resource mobilization andinternational assistance. Domestic sav­ings and, consequently, investments arefar too low in many developing coun­tries. Private flows have risen substan­tially in recent years, especially tomedium-income countries, but manyof the poorer countries have beenbypassed. International developmentassistance is slowing down.

Realizing the 2020 Vision calls forsustained action in six priority areas:

• Strengthen the capacity of developing­country governments to performappropriate functions, such as main­taining law and order, establishing andenforcing property rights, promotingand assuring competition in private­sector markets, maintaining an appro­priate macroeconomic environment,investing in or facilitating private­sector investment in public goods likeeducation and infrastructure, and seek­ing improved access to internationalmarkets through trade negotiations.Predictability, transparency, and conti­nuity in policymaking and enforcementare essential.

• Enhance the productivity, health, andnutrition of low-income people andincrease their access to employment

and productive assets by assuringaccess to primary education, primaryhealth care, and clean water and sanita­tion for all peopLe; strengthening andenforcing legislation and providingincentives to empower women;improving access by the poor to pro­ductive resources such as land; expand­ing employment through broad-basedeconomic development; reducing pop­ulation growth rates where they arehigh; and better targeting transfer pro­grams to the poor.

• Strengthen agricultural research andextension systems in and for developingcountries. Developing countries mustsharply increase their national agricul­tural research expenditures to a target ofat least 1 percent of the value of agricul­tural output with a longer-term target of2 percent. Investment in internationalagricultural research to support nationalagricultural systems must be substan­tially increased. A clear policy on andagenda for biotechnoLogy research mustbe developed.

• Promote sustainable agricultural inten­sification and sound management ofnatural resources, with increasedemphasis on areas with agriculturalpotential, fragile soils, limited rainfall,and widespread poverty. Public- andprivate-sector investments in infra­structure, market development, naturalresource management, and humanresource development are required inthese areas. Local control overresources must be strengthened andlocal capacity for organization andmanagement improved. Farmers andcommunities must be encouraged to

implement integrated soil fertility pro­grams through policies that ensureproperty rights to land and improvedaccess to credit, efficient and effectivemarkets for plant nutrients, invest­ments in infrastructure, and temporaryfertilizer subsidies where prices arehigh due to inadequate infrastructureor poorly functioning markets.Integrated pest management programsshould be promoted as the central pestmanagement strategy The internation­al community must develop andenforce a global program of coordina­tion and restraint to prevent exploita­tion of marine fisheries beyond sustain­able limits. Comprehensive water poli­cy reforms are required to make betteruse of existing water supplies by pro­viding appropriate incentives to waterusers, improving procedures for alloca­tion, developing improved technologyfor water supply and delivery, provid­ing secure water rights, and reformingdistorted price incentives.

• Develop efficient, effective, and low­cost agricultural input and output mar­kets by phasing out inefficient state­run firms in agricultural input and out­put markets; assuring effective compe­tition; removing policies and institu­tions that favor large-scale, capital­intensive market agents over small­scale, labor-intensive ones; investing inor facilitating private-sector investmentto develop or maintain market infra­structure; facilitating development ofsmall-scale credit and savings institu­tions; and providing technical assis­tance and training to create or strength­en small-scale, labor-intensive competi­tive rural enterprises in trade, process-

ing, and related marketing activities.

• Expand international cooperation andassistance and improve its efficiency andeffectiveness. Developing countriesmust promote national strategies forachieving the goals underlying the 2.020Vision, diversify sources of externalfinancing, and seek measures to stemcapital flights. International develop­ment institutions and bilateral donorsshould focus official government-to­government assistance on countrieswhose governments demonstrate com­mitment to the goals underlying the2020 Vision, raise international assis­tance to reach the target of 0.7 percentof gross national product, realign inter­national assistance to low-income devel­oping countries, replace concessionalaid to high-income developing countrieswith internationally available commer­cial capital, and maintain a certain mini­mum amount of food to be made avail­able as food aid in emergency situations.

The action needed to realize the 2020Vision will require new or strengthenedpartnerships between individuals, house­holds, farmers, local communities, theprivate sector, nongovernmental organiza­tions, national governments, and theinternational community. It will require achange in behavior, priorities, and poli­cies. And it will require strengthenedcooperation between industrial and devel­oping countries as well as among devel­oping countries. Failure to take actionwill lead to persisting hunger and poverty,continuing degraclation of naturalresources, increasing conflicts over scarceresources, and widening gaps between therich and poor.

Failure to takeaction will lead

to persisting hungerand poverty, contin­uing degradation ojnatural resources,increasing conflictsover scarceresources, andwidening gapsbetween the richand poor.

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The Vision

At the threshold of the twenty-firstcentury, widespread poverty,hunger, and malnutrition threaten

to destabilize global economic, social,political, and environmental conditions.Unless immediate steps are taken toreverse the trends of the 1980s and1990s-overpopulation, mistreatment ofthe earth, and insufficient investment indevelopment-even more people thantoday will live in abject poverty andhunger and even more children will bemalnourished. Diseases spawned byhunger and malnutrition will persist,degradation of natural resources will con­tinue, conflicts over scarce resources suchas water and arable land will become evenmore common, and inequalities betweenthe rich and the poor will widen. Formost of humanity, the world will not be apleasant place in the twenty-first centuryYet it does not have to be this way Withforesight and decisive action, a betterworld can be created for all people.

IFPRI's 2020 Vision is a world whereevery person has access to sufficient food tosustain a healthy and productive life, wheremalnutrition is absent, and where foodoriginates from efficient, effective, and low­cost food systems that are compatible withsustainable use of natural resources.

The 2020 Vision is based on theprinciple affirmed by the United Nationsand its members that freedom fromhunger is a human right. National gov­ernments are not obligated to physicallydeliver food to every citizen, but they areresponsible, with assistance by the inter­national community, to create an eco­nomic, political, and social environmentin which every person is able to meet hisor her food needs throughout the year,every year. The Vision builds on deliber­ations and recommendations from recentUnited Nations conferences and otherfora related to food, agriculture, and theenvironment.

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The Challenge

Identifying, designing, and implement­ing actions to realize the 2020 Visionrequires a solid understanding of the

problems, challenges, and opportunitiesfor change. Through 2020 Vision researchand consultations, nine key sets of issueswere identified that present challengesthat must be overcome if the 2020 Visionis to be realized. These are

• Food security and nutrition;

• Poverty and economic growth;

• Human resource development;

• Food demand and diet changes;

• Population growth and movements;

• Food supply;

• Natural resources and agriculturalinputs;

• Markets, infrastructure, and interna­tional trade; and

• Domestic resource mobilization andinternational assistance.

These issues do not form a hierarchyof priorities but rather are interlockingproblems that must be addressed together.

For the 2020 Vision to be realized,enough food must be produced sustain­ably to meet the food needs of every per­son in the world, and everyone must haveeconomic and physical access to sufficientfood. Sustainable improvements in foodsecurity and nutrition are, therefore, theoverall indicators of success in attainingthe 2020 Vision.

Food security is jointly determined byaccess to food and availability of food.Access to food is closely related to povertyand economic growth: the poor usually donot have adequate means to gain access to

food in the quantities needed for healthy,productive lives. Human resource develop­ment, including education and health, isessential to raise the productivity of poorpeople and improve their access to remu­nerative employment and productiveresources.

Population growth and movements,including urbanization, migration, andinvoluntary displacement of people,greatly influence food security and nutri­tion by increasing and changing thedemand for food, changing dependencyratios and family sizes, and changingaccess to productive resources. Popu­lation pressures, in combination withpoverty and insecure property rights, con­tribute to overuse and misuse of naturalresources.

Food demand and supply trends influ­ence food prices, the purchasing power ofboth the urban and rural poor, composi­tion of diets, and many other factorsrelated to food security, nutrition, andsound management of natural resources.Whether food needs can be met dependson agricultural growth, not simply forproducing food but also for generatingemployment and incomes for poor peoplewithin and outside agriculture.

Natural resources and agriculturalinputs are critical determinants of foodsupply: degradation of natural resources­soils, forests, marine fisheries, water­undermines production capacity, whileavailability of and access to agriculturalinputs such as water, fertilizers, pesti­cides, energy, expertise, and technologydetermine productivity and productionlevels. Appropriate policies and market

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Food insecurityis likely to

continue todiminish rapidlyin East Asia, butwithout new andaccelerated action,it could persist inSouth Asia and, toa lesser extent, inLatin America,and acceleratesubstantially inSub-SaharanAfrica.

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incentives are essential for sound man­agement of natural resources and agricul­tural inputs. Climate change is notexpected to challenge global food production in the next 25 years, but humanbehavior during this time will influencethe extent and effects of climate changewell beyond 2020.

The efficient functioning of markets,especially agricultural input and outputmarkets, supported by governments thathave the capacity to perform their appro­priate roles, is of critical importance forattaining the 2020 Vision. Infrastructuresupports efficient market operations andallows physical access to food and otherinputs. The increasing integration ofdeveloping countries into the globaleconomy through international trade willbenefit both developing and developedcountries by expanding markets, creatingjobs, and generating income, making the2020 Vision attainable.

Finally, without increased domesticresource mobilization-savings and invest­ment-developing countries will not beable to accelerate the investments in eco­nomic growth and human resources thatunderpin the 2020 Vision. Internationalassistance has a critical role to play insupporting developing countries as theyimplement the actions required to attainthe 2020 Vision and embark on broad­based economic development. In addi­tion, partnerships between higher- andlower-income developing countries aswell as between industrial and developingcountries to promote sustainable econom­ic growth will be essential.

The action needed to realize the 2020Vision is not new, but it will requireunprecedented joint efforts by individuals,households, farmers, local communities,civil society, the private sector, nationaland local governments, and the interna­tional community. It will require politicalwill and commitment to change behavior,priorities, and policies. And it will requirestrengthened cooperation between indus­trial countries and developing countries aswell as among developing countries. Thekey challenge to realizing the 2020 Visionis to overcome the lack of commitmentand to develop the political will to eradi­cate poverty and hunger and to protect thenatural resource base.

Food Security andNutrition

About 800 million people-20 percent ofthe developing world's population-arefood insecure in 1995: they lack economicand physical access to the food requiredto lead healthy and productive lives.Their numbers declined from 950 millionin 1970 primarily because of a 50 percentreduction in the number of food-insecurepeople in East Asia. South Asia remainshome to about 270 million hungry people,while Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as amajor locus of hunger: the number ofhungry people in Africa has increased by46 percent since 1970 to 175 million in1995. Food insecurity is likely to con­tinue to diminish rapidly in East Asia, butwithout new and accelerated action, itcould persist in South Asia and, to a

lesser extent, in Latin America, andaccelerate substantially in Sub-SaharanAfrica. Essentially, South Asia and Sub­Saharan Africa remain the "hot spots"of food insecurity.

Prospects for reducing malnutritionamong the world's children are grim.About 185 million children under the ageof six years are seriously underweight fortheir age. Like food insecurity, child mal­nutrition is concentrated in South Asiaand increasing rapidly in Sub-SaharanAfrica. Female children are worse offthan male children in South Asia. 2020Vision research suggests that the propor­tion of malnourished children in theworld could decline from 34 percent in1990 to 26 percent in 2020. Because ofpopulation growth, however, the numberof malnourished children would declineonly slightly to 156 million by 2020.Reduction in child malnutrition is ex­pected in all regions except Sub-SaharanAfrica, where the number of malnour­ished children could increase by 50 per­cent between 1990 and 2020 to reach43 million. In South Asia, the number ofmalnourished children may decline bymore than 20 million over this period,but current malnutrition levels are sohigh that, even with these gains, two outof five preschool children are projected tobe malnourished in 2020.

Hidden hunger, in the form ofmicronutrient deficiencies, is pervasive,even where food consumption is ade­quate. Micronutrient deficiencies havedetrimental effects on human health andproductivity. Nearly 2 billion peopleworldwide are iron deficient, resulting in

anemia in 1.2 billion; more than half ofthe pregnant women in developing coun­tries are anemic; 125 million preschoolchildren suffer from vitamin A deficiency,which has caused clinically visible eyedamage to 14 million of them; and morethan 600 million people have iodine­deficiency disorders.

Malnutrition in children inhibits theirgrowth, increases their risk of morbidity,affects their cognitive development, andreduces their subsequent school perfor­mance. Malnutrition during childhoodnegatively affects work capacity and laborproductivity in adults. And mild to mod­erate malnutrition has far more powerfuleffects on child mortality than previouslybelieved.

Hunger is, and will remain, the pri­mary challenge confronting developingcountries. However, 2020 Vision researchfinds a paradoxical nutrition-related trendof obesity emerging in some areas, partic­ularly in urban areas. In China's cities,for example, obesity is forecast to increase15 percent by 2020. Rapid income growthand urbanization are associated withchanges to diets that include more fattyfoods, such as livestock products, andwith shifts toward more sedentary occu­pations. Because obesity helps increasechronic diseases such as heart conditions,obesity is becoming a serious publichealth risk in some developing countries,as it is in many developed countries.

Hunger is, andwill remain, the

primary challengeconfronting develop­ing countries.

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Poverty andEconomic Growth

Over 1.1 billion people in the developingworld-30 percent of the population­live in absolute poverty, with incomesequivalent to a dollar a day or less perperson. Every second person in SouthAsia and Sub-Saharan Africa is absolutelypoor. Unless concerted action is taken,poverty will remain entrenched in SouthAsia and Latin America and will increasemarkedly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Only inEast Asia is absolute poverty expected todecline substantially. More than 75 per­cent of the poor in Sub-Saharan Africaand South Asia are rural people, obtaininglivelihoods from agricultural activities orfrom nonfarm activities that dependmostly on agriculture. Even in highlyurbanized Latin America, a large share ofthe poor are ruraL Moreover, there aremore women than men among the poor,and individuals in female-headed house­holds are often poorer than those in male­headed households; This incomeinequality has serious implications forchildren's nutrition and family food secu­rity since women are likely to spend agreater proportion of their incomes onfood for the household and on their chil­dren's health, nutrition, and education.

Income levels and rates of growthvary considerably among developingcountries. In 1982, per capita incomes inlow-income developing countries were18 percent of those in middle-incomedeveloping countries and 3 percent ofthose in developed countries. Ten yearslater, in 1992, these figures had droppedto 16 and 2 percent, respectively, reflect-

ing an increasing inequality. The gapbetween rich and poor is widening: theshare of global incomes obtained by thepoorest 20 percent of the world's popula­tion decreased dramatically from 2.5 per­cent in 1960 to 1.3 percent in 1990.

While East Asia had spectacularannual growth rates in per capita incomesof 6 percent or more during the 1980sand early 1990s, Africa, Latin America,and the Middle East have struggled withnegative or negligible growth rates.Unless significant and fundamentalchanges occur in many developing coun­tries, disparities in income levels andgrowth rates are likely to continue. 2020Vision research projects that annual percapita income growth rates during1990-2020 will range from 0.4 percent inSub-Saharan Africa to 5.2 percent in EastAsia. There is, however, considerableopportunity to accelerate income growthrates in the slow-growing countries, espe­cially those of Sub-Saharan Africa, and toraise per capita incomes.

Human ResourceDevelopment

Poor, hungry, and illiterate people, andthose suffering from chronic illnesses,have low productivity. Investments inhealth care and education-essential forraising productivity-and access to pro­ductive resources and remunerativeemployment are far below required levels,especially in rural areas of low-incomedeveloping countries. Investment in thehealth and education of women and girls

is particularly low. As a result, many peo­ple are denied the skills, capacity, andopportunity to improve their lives and toparticipate fully in all aspects of the econ­omy and in social and political processes.These people also represent an underusedresource that could be available to fosteraccelerated economic growth for the ben­efit of both the poor and nonpoor.

2020 Vision research finds that rapideconomic growth alone is unlikely toreduce dramatically the number of mal­nourished children. An increase inincomes is necessary but not sufficient toguarantee good nutrition. There is grow­ing evidence that the control of incomewithin the household matters: incomescontrolled by women are associated withimproved food security and nutrition.Furthermore, nonfood factors such aseducation, health care, child care, cleanwater, and sanitation are of critical impor­tance in determining nutritional statusand must be improved in tandem withincomes and empowerment of women.

Developing-country public expendi­ture on education as a percentage of grossnational product (GNP) has doubledsince 1960 to 4 percent. Enrollment inprimary education has risen considerablyin the developing world. However, drop­out rates are significant (about 30-35 per­cent drop out by Grade 4, a share that hasnot improved since 1970). While almostas many girls enroll in primary school asboys, they complete only about half asmany years of schooling.

Public expenditure on health as a per­centage of GNP in developing countrieshas doubled from 0.9 to 2.2 percent

between 1960 and 1990. However, about1 billion people in developing countrieslack access to health services; not surpris­ingly, infant mortality rates are 10 timeshigher than in industrialized countries.

About 1.3 billion people, primarily inrural areas of developing countries, areconsuming unsafe water. About two­thirds of the population in developingcountries has access to safe water, com­pared with one-third in the late 1970s.Almost 2 billion people, including morethan half of the rural population in devel­oping countries, do not have access toadequate sanitation systems.

Food Demand andDiet Changes

The extent to which food needs will beconverted into effective market demandwill depend on the purchasing power ofthe poor. 2020 Vision research forecaststhat global effective market demand forfoodgrains will increase by 55 percentbetween 1990 and 2020 to 2.7 billionmetric tons (hereinafter "tons"), for live­stock products by 75 percent to 280 mil­lion tons, and for roots and tubers by 50percent to 875 million tons. With popu­lation growth, per capita demand forfoodgrains is projected to increase by lessthan 3 percent to 340 kilograms, for live­stock products by 17 percent to 36 kilo­grams, and for roots and tubers hy 1 per­cent to 112 kilograms.

Because of more rapid population andincome growth, market demand for food­grains and livestock products is expected

2020 Visionresearch

finds that rapideconomic growthalone is unlihelyto reducedramaticallythe number ofmalnourishedchildren.

II

A round 90 mil­lion people­

equivalent to Mexicospopulation in 1990­are likely to beadded to the worldspopulation everyyear in the nextquarter century,the largest annualpopulation increasein history.

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to grow much faster in developing coun­tries than in developed countries. 2020Vision research forecasts that average percapita demand for foodgrains in develop­ing countries will grow 0.4 percent peryear between 1990 and 2020 and demandfor livestock products 1.5 percent.Between 1990 and 2020, developingcountries are projected to increase theirmarket demand for foodgrains by 75 per­cent to 1.7 billion tons and for livestockproducts by 155 percent to 110 milliontons. Population growth leads to a signif­icantly smaller increase in per capitademand during this period, 11 percent forfoodgrains and 56 percent for meat. InSub-Saharan Africa, however, the amountof food demanded per person is not pro­jected to increase during this period,which is cause for serious concernbecause per capita food consumption inthat region is already below the bare min­imum required for healthy lives. Eventhough total market demand for food isgrowing faster in developing than devel­oped countries, developing-country citi­zens are projected to demand only 40 per­cent of the foodgrains and 33 percent oflivestock products that citizens in devel­oped countries demand by 2020, althoughdeveloping countries will account formore than 80 percent of the world's popu­lation.

Urbanization and rising incomes areassociated with more diverse diets: peopleare eating more livestock products andcutting back on cereals, and they areshifting to more processed foods. Asiansare eating more livestock products andshifting from rice to wheat. Sub-SaharanAfricans are moving from eating coarse

grains and roots and tubers to wheat andrice. 2020 Vision research forecasts percapita demand for rice to grow at half therate for wheat and maize. Much of thegrowth in global demand for meat is tak­ing place in China. 2020 Vision researchsuggests that, if India makes a large shiftfrom a cereal-based diet to an increasinglymeat-based diet, world food prices willincrease and per capita food demand inpoorer Sub-Saharan African and SouthAsian countries will fall as a consequence.

Changes in dietary patterns placestrong pressures on the livestock industryand, indirectly, on feedgrain production.Demand for feedgrain is growing rapidlyin developing countries. However, con­tinued declines in the amount of feedneeded to produce each kilogram of live­stock products, because of better tech­nologies and a shift from ruminants topoultry, will slow the rate of increase indemand for feedgrains, thereby reducingpressures on grain production from whatwas previously expected.

Population Growth andMovements

Four critical current trends in demogra­phy will need to be addressed to realizethe 2020 Vision: high population growth,rapid urbanization, changing age compo­sition, and involuntary displacementof people.

Around 90 million people-equiva­lent to Mexico's population in 1990-arelikely to be added to the world's popula­tion every year in the next quarter century,

the largest annual population increase inhistory. By 2020, world population islikely to approach 8 billion. More than90 percent of the population increase willoccur in developing countries, whoseshare of world population will exceed80 percent. The absolute increase will belargest in Asia (1.5 billion), but the rateof growth will be most rapid in Africa,where the population will double toabout 1.2 billion in 2020. From its peakof 2.1 percent in the late 1960s, the globalpopulation growth rate is expected toslow to 1.04 percent by 2015-2020.Africa's projected population growth rateof 2.3 percent in 2015-2020 will be morethan double the growth rates in otherregions. If fertility rates in developingcountries decline faster than expected, ashas happened in a few African countriesfollowing increased support for povertyalleviation programs, reproductive healthservices, and education, especially forwomen, the population growth rate coulddecline at a faster rate. AIDS may alsoSignificantly reduce population growthrates by as much as half in some Africancountries by 2020. Should fertility ratesnot decline as expected, global populationin 2020 could be higher than 8 billion.

Most of the population increase indeveloping countries between now and2020 is expected in the cities. Rapidurbanization is expected to more thandouble the urban population in develop­ing countries to 3.6 billion by 2020. Bythis time, urban dwellers will outnumberrural dwellers in all regions. This popula­tion pressure in urban areas will createenormous demand for services. Extremepoverty, insufficient economic growth,

and lack of employment opportunities inrural areas and hopes of employment andaccess to social services in urban areaswill drive rural dwellers to migrate tocities in many low-income developingcountries at rates beyond those justifiedby urban employment opportunities.

As people live longer and populationgrowth rates continue to fall, the share ofelderly people in middle- to higher­income developing countries is growingwhile the share of children is falling. Thisshift in the age composition of the popu­lation will significantly influence thedesign of future policy interventions toalleviate poverty and food insecurity. Inthe low-income developing countries,however, a large proportion of the popu­lation \Nill continue to be young for sometime, suggesting that education andemployment generation will continue tobe major priorities.

A 10-fold increase in the numberof international refugees since 1974 toaround 23 million today, along with26 million refugees displaced within theirhome countries, reflects severe social andeconomic hardship. These problems oftenspill over into other areas, affecting manymore people. Unless the underlying causesof these massive involuntary displacementsof people-breakdown of civil society andgovernments, oppression, extreme poverty,hunger, and environmental degradation­are removed, this trend will continue, withincreasing human misery and disruptions ofproductive activities. More than 40 coun­tries and tens of millions of people todayare experiencing hunger or are severelyvulnerable to hunger because of past or

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Food will haveto be produced

where it is mostneeded in develop­ing countries, notsimply to increasefood supplies butalso to generateincomes andemploymentthrough agricul­tural and resultingeconomic growth.

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ongoing conflicts that have severelyreduced food production and livelihoodcapacities and devastated naturalresources. As the competition over scarceresources intensifies, many more peoplemay come under the shadow of conflict,where food and water are often instru­ments for warfare and natural resourcesare often among the first casualties.

Food SupplyIn the next 25 years, the world will bechallenged to produce enough food tofeed an additional 90 million people eachyear, as well as to meet increasing andchanging food needs due to risingincomes and changing lifestyles. Theseneeds will have to be met from more effi­cient use of land already under cultiva­tion, as significant expansion of cultivatedarea is not an economically or environ­mentally sound option in most of theworld. Food will have to be producedwhere it is most needed in developingcountries, not simply to increase foodsupplies but also to generate incomes andemployment through agricultural andresulting economic growth.

2020 Vision research suggests thatthe world is far from approaching bio­physical limits to global food production.Warning signs, however, suggest thatgrowth in food production has begun tolag. Increases in food production did notkeep pace with population growth inmore than 50 developing countries in the1980s and early 1990s. The rate ofgrowth of global grain productiondropped from 3 percent in the 1970s to

1.3 percent in the 1983-93 period, andthe amount of grain produced per personhas fallen in the past decade. Yields ofrice and wheat have been constant dur­ing the last few years in Asia, a majorproducer. Production from marine fish­eries has peaked at 100 million tons andis now in decline.

If investments in agricultural researchand infrastructure are maintained, at leastat the already reduced levels of the 1980s,the future aggregate global food supplypicture is likely to be good. 2020 Visionresearch projects that world foodgrain pro­duction will grow on average by 1.5 per­cent per year between 1990 and 2020, arate high enough to increase global percapita availability of food and to reducereal prices for most commodities. Worldlivestock production is projected to growby 1.9 percent a year. Aquaculture pro­duction, which doubled between 1984 and1992, is forecast to increase at a slower ratebetween 1990 and 2020, while marine fishcatches are likely to be no higher than cur­rent levels in 2020. Foodgrain productionin developing countries is projected togrow at an average annual rate of 2 percent(compared with 1 percent in developedcountries) and livestock production at3.3 percent (compared with 0.8 percentin developed countries).

2020 Vision simulations suggest that,if national and international institutionsfurther cut back on public investmentsin agricultural research, health, nutrition,and education, the relatively favorableaggregate food situation could signifi­cantly worsen, reversing long-term worldfood price declines and increasing thenumber of malnourished children. But if

developing countries strengthen theirinvestments in agricultural research,health, education, and clean water sup­plies; raise their income growth rates; andincrease the enrollment of females in sec­ondary schools, the number of malnour­ished children in developing countriescould be substantially reduced and percapita market demand and supply of foodsignificantly increased. A reduction in thepopulation growth rate to the UnitedNations low-variant projection, so thatthe global population in 2020 is 7 billioninstead of the anticipated 8 billion, wouldalso significantly improve the food securitysituation.

Yield increases will have to be thesource of most of the food productionincreases since cultivated area is likely todecline in many developed countries andonly marginally increase in developingcountries, except in Sub-Saharan Africaand Latin America, where some expan­sion of area is still economically and tech­nologically feasible. However, these yieldincreases depend on continued researchand successful dissemination of technolo­gies and techniques to farmers. A secondGreen Revolution will be more difficult toachieve than the first. Should publicinvestment in agriculture, particularly inagricultural research, continue to decline,and should extension systems fail to sup­port small-scale farmers as they ventureto adopt improved technologies, theaggregate food situation could Signifi­cantly worsen.

The relatively favorable global foodsupply picture is not good for all regions.South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are ofspecial concern. The gap between produc-

tion and market demand for cereals is fore­cast to widen from 1 million tons in 1990to 24 million tons in 2020 in South Asia,and to triple to 27 million tons in 2020 inSub-Saharan Africa. Unless poverty is sig­nificantly reduced, the gap between foodproduction and need will be much larger.Sub-Saharan Africa in particular is unlikelyto have the capacity to commerciallyimport the difference between food needsand production. It is also unlikely thatenough food aid will be available to bridgethis gap. Food aid is likely to be increas­ingly scarce with the implementation ofthe Uruguay Round trade agreements,which will reduce domestic price supportto agriculture and thus reduce surplusproduction in the industrial countries.

Sub-Saharan Africa's food economy isunlikely to have much effect on the globalfood situation-its share of the globalmarket demand for foodgrains will proba­bly not exceed 6 percent in 2020. How­ever, what happens in two regions­China and Eastern Europe and the fannerSoviet Union-will greatly influence theglobal food projections. Any dramaticchanges in Chinas food economy willreverberate around the globe. Structuralchanges in Eastern Europe and the formerSoviet Union will determine the pace atwhich that region shifts from being amajor cereal importer to a major exporter.

The central challenges between nowand 2020 are to develop the global capacityto produce adequate food in an environ­mentally sustainable manner and toincrease the capacity of poorer countries toproduce food, not simply to increase theirfood supply, but to generate incomes andemployment through agricultural growth.

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Two-thirds of theworld's degraded

lands are found inAsia and Africa, buthuman-induceddegradation is mostsevere in Africa,where 30 percent ofthe agriculturalland, pastures,forests, and wood­lands are degraded,followed by Asia(27 percent) andLatin America(18 percent).

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Natural Resources andAgricultural Inputs

Soils. Concerns are growing about theextent and rate of soil degradation in theworld and its effects on agricultural pro­ductivity and preservation of naturalresources, including biodiversity. In thepast half-century; about 2 billion of the8.7 billion hectares of agricultural land,permanent pastures, and forest and wood­lands have been degraded. Of these,about 750 million hectares of mildlydegraded land could be restored throughgood land husbandry measures, whileanother 900 million hectares of moderate­ly degraded land could be restoredthrough significant on-farm investments.Restoring the remaining 300 millionhectares of severely degraded lands willbe much more costly, involving majorengineering investments. About 5 to10 million hectares annually becomeunusable due to severe degradation.

Two-thirds of the world's degradedlands are found in Asia and Africa, buthuman-induced degradation is mostsevere in Africa, where 30 percent of theagricultural land, pastures, forests, andwoodlands are degraded, followed by Asia(27 percent) and Latin America (I8 per­cent). Most of the degradation is takingplace on agricultural and pasture lands,which are major sources of food, incomes,and employment for rural people in manydeveloping countries. Soil degradationhas affected 75 percent of agriculturallands in Central America and 65 percentin Africa, compared with 25 percent inEurope and North America. Most of thedegradation is taking place in the "bread-

basket" areas (salinization), densely pop­ulated rainfed farming areas (nutrientdepletion and erosion), and areas withimportant environmental roles (watererosion in upper watersheds).

Overgrazing, deforestation, and inap­propriate agricultural practices accountfor most of the degradation. To a largeextent, these problems result from or areexacerbated by inadequate propertyrights, poverty, population pressure, inap­propriate government policies, and lackof access to markets, credit, and technolo­gies appropriate for sustainable agricul­tural development. Crop productivitylosses from degradation are significantand widespread in hilly areas, drylandcropping areas, rangelands, and irrigatedareas. Unless nondegraded soils are pro­tected and currently degraded soils arerestored, increasing population and per­sisting poverty will hasten soil degrada­tion between now and 2020.

2020 Vision consultations have iden­tified "hot spots" of severe environmentaldeterioration by the year 2020. Theseareas include the Indus, Tigris, andEuphrates river basins, where continuedsalinization could threaten regional foodsecurity; the foothills of the Himalayas,where water erosion could exacerbatepoverty and food insecurity; the highlandareas of East Africa, where few readysources of further productivity increasesexist; the border zone between subhumidand semiarid areas in Africa, wheremigrations induced by dryland degrada­tion could put additional pressure on thenatural resource base; the forest marginsof the lower Amazon, where overgrazingand nutrient loss are expected to worsen;

and the periurban areas around MexicoCity, where pollution from agriculturalchemicals could worsen. Soil fertility is aparticularly serious problem in Africa,where a lack of replenishment of nutri­ents is leading to rapid deterioration.

Forests. During the 1980s, about0.8 percent-15.4 million hectares-oftropical forests worldwide were convertedto other uses every year. Latin Americahad the largest area of forest convertedduring that period-7.4 million hectaresevery year-but other areas, with smallerforest endowments, had higher rates offorest conversion and carry heavier risksof completely losing their forest assets.Rates of forest conversion are most rapidin continental Southeast Asia and CentralAmerica and Mexico, averaging about1.5 percent a year. Deforestation hasimportant local and global consequences,ranging from increased soil and waterdegradation to greater food insecurity(especially among indigenous peopleswho depend on forest products for food,fiber, medicines, or income), escalatingcarbon emissions, and loss of biodiversity.

Small-scale, poor farmers clearing landfor agriculture to meet food needsaccounted for roughly two-thirds of thedeforestation in the 1980s. Such forestconversion, driven by food insecurity, willcontinue between now and 2020, particu­larly in Africa, unless farmers have alterna­tive ways of meeting food needs. Andthese needs will accelerate with populationgrowth in rural areas. Commercial logginginterests account for much of the remain­ing deforestation, especially in East Asiaand West Africa. Although there is noconsensus on the amount or location of

forest that this generation should bequeathto the next, there is evidence that the\vorld's forests are neither properly man­aged nor, when converted into otherassets, sufficiently productive to allowfuture generations to meet their needs.

Marine Fisheries. The world's fisheriesare in crisis. Following a period of rapidexpansion of harvesting from the oceans,more than a quarter of the 200 mainmarine fisheries worldwide are overex­plOited, depleted, or recovering, whileanother two-fifths are fully exploited.Fisheries are collapsing in some parts ofthe world, and international disputes overfish stocks are increasing. Resource man­agement has failed to restrain fishers fromexploiting natural fisheries beyond sus­tainable limits, leading to increasing con­flicts as fish become more scarce. Evenwhere access is restrained, most fisherieshave too many fishers with legitimateaccess. 2020 Vision research projects thatin 2020 fish catches will be, at best, nomore than current levels, as losses frompoor resource management and protectionof some areas and species offset gains frombetter handling and exploitation of under­used stocks. The challenge is to maintainthe present levels of harvest from naturalfisheries while sustainably increasingaquaculture production.

Watn Enough freshwater is availableworldwide to meet needs for the foresee­able future if it were evenly distributed andappropriately used. But water is poorlydistributed across countries, across regionswithin countries, and across seasons.Virtually all developing countries, eventhose with adequate water in the aggregate,suffer from debilitating seasonal and

V irtually alldeveloping

countries, eventhose with adequatewater in the aggre­gate, suffer fromdebilitating sea­sonal and regionalshortages.

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regional shortages. About 30 countriestoday are water stressed, with major prob­lems in drought years. Of these, 20 arewater scarce, with annual internal renew­able water resources below the thresholdrequired for socioeconomic developmentand environmental quality By 2020, thenumber of water-scarce countries couldapproach 35. Competition for water isbecoming more acute, increasing thepotential for conflicts between sectorsand water wars between countries.

2020 Vision research has identifiedseveral major water-related challenges torealizing the 2020 Vision. Developmentof new water resources has slowed sincethe late 1970s. New sources of water areincreasingly expensive to exploit becauseof high construction costs for dams andreservoirs and concerns about environ­mental effects and displacement of peo­ple. Investment in irrigation projects hasslowed, especially in Asia, even thoughincreased production from irrigated landsis likely to be decisive in meeting futurefood needs. Efficiency of water use inagriculture, industry, and urban areas isgenerally low. Pressures to degrade landand water resources through waterlog­ging, salinization, and groundwater min­ing are mounting. Between 0.3 and1.5 million hectares of land are lost eachyear worldwide from waterlogging andsalinization. Pollution of water fromindustrial effluent, poorly treated sewage,and runoff of agricultural chemicals is agrowing problem. Inadequate and unsafedomestic water supplies, compounded byinadequate or nonexistent sewage andsanitation systems, are a major cause ofdisease and death, particularly among

children, in developing countries.Inappropriate policies, distorted incen­tives, and massive subsidies provide waterat little or no cost to rural and urbanusers, encouraging overuse and misuse ofwater. Water for irrigation, the largestuse, is essentially unpriced. The over­arching challenge between now and 2020is to treat water as the scarce resource it is.

Fertilizers. According to 2020 Visionresearch and consultations, the use ofmineral fertilizers will have to be substan­tially increased in developing countries tomeet food needs by 2020, although organicsources can and should supply a largershare of plant nutrients. Fertilizers alsoplaya key role in enhancing the naturalresource base. 2020 Vision research fore­casts that between 1990 and 2020, globalfertilizer demand will grow, on average,by 1.2 percent per year to 208 million tonsin 2020, a significantly lower rate than the2.8 percent rate in the 1980s. Averageannual growth rates are projected to beabout 1.8-2.4 percent in Africa, Asia,and Latin America. Asia will account formore than half of the growth in globalfertilizer use.

Depletion of soil nutrients is a criticalconstraint to food production in Sub­Saharan Africa. The projected growth infertilizer use will be inadequate, givennutrient requirements for food produc­tion and for resource conservation.Fertilizer applications are low because ofhigh prices (resulting from thin markets,lack of domestic production capacity,poor infrastructure, and inefficient mar­keting systems), insecure supplies, andthe greater risks associated with food pro­duction in marginal areas.

Raw materials, capital investment, ortechnology do not appear to be criticalconstraints to future fertilizer production.Negative environmental and health con­sequences of fertilizer use and productionmust be avoided. In most developingcountries, however, the problem is notexcessive but insufficient fertilizer use.The major challenge is to promote a bal­anced and efficient use of plant nutrientsfrom both organic and inorganic sourcesat farm and community levels to intensifyagriculture in a sustainable manner.

Pesticides. Pre- and postharvest lossesin potential crop production due to pestsare very large in developing countries.However, past practices of pesticide usecannot be sustained. Since 1945, globalpesticide use has increased 42-fold to

about 2.5 million tons today. Concernsare multiplying in developed and devel­oping countries that overuse or misuse ofpesticides compromises human health;contaminates soils and water and damagesecosystems; suppresses species; and leadsto pesticide resistance, pest resurgence,and evolution of secondary pests.Moreover, evidence shows that overuse ofpesticides can lead to decreased food pro­duction: in Indonesia, introduction of anintegrated pest management (IPM) pro­gram that combined biological controlsand host-plant resistance with reduceduse of chemical pesticides in the late1980s was associated with an increase inrice yields. According to 2020 Visionconsultations, it is clear that environmen­tally sound alternatives or methods of usemust be developed and adopted. Avail­able pest management means must becombined to achieve effective pest control

with little or no negative environmentaleffects or health risks.

Energy. Agriculture consumes only5 percent of global commercial energyHowever, energy use in agriculture hassignificantly grown in recent decadesbecause of increases in cropped and irri­gated area; rising mechanization in irriga­tion, land preparation, and harvesting;and use of chemical fertilizers. Chemicalfertilizers alone account for almost70 percent of developing-country energyuse in agriculture. Increasing agriculturalproduction and agroprocessing in devel­oping countries will call for substantialincreases in use of commercial energyStill, agriculture will continue to be aminor user of energy.

Research and Technology. All of thefood needed in 2020 and beyond cannotbe produced using existing technology andknowledge alone. Low-income developingcountries are grossly underinvesting inagricultural research compared with indus­trialized countries, even though agricul­ture accounts for a much larger share ofdeveloping countries' employment andincomes. Their public-sector expenditureson agricultural research are typically lessthan 0.5 percent of agricultural grossdomestic product (GDP), compared withabout 1 percent in higher-income develop­ing countries and 2-5 percent in industri­alized countries. Developing countrieshave far fewer agricultural researchers rela­tive to the economically active populationengaged in agriculture or to the agricultureacreage. Growth in public-sector expendi­tures on agricultural research in develop­ing countries has slowed to 2.7 percent peryear in the past decade, compared with

Inmost developingcountries, howev­

e1; the problem isnot excessive butinsufficient fertilizeruse. The majorchallenge is topromote a balancedand efficient use ofplant nutrients fromboth organic andinorganic sourcesatfarm andcommunity levels tointensify agriculturein a sustainablemanner.

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7.0 percent in the 1960s. Many develop­ing countries are even reducing their sup­port for agricultural research. This trendhas been under way for several decades inAfrica (agricultural research expendituresper scientist have fallen by about 2.6 per­cent per year since 1961) and is morerecent in Latin America. Further reduc­tions in public investment in agriculturalresearch will have severe consequences forglobal food production by reducing yieldgrowth: projected world food pricedeclines will be reversed and the numberof malnourished children will increase.

Climate Change. A trend toward glob­al warming is evident, but it will not sig­nificantly affect global food production inthe next 25 years. This does not imply,however, that considerations related toclimate change should be set aside.Human behavior in the next quarter cen­tury-the carbon dioxide and fluorocar­bons injected into the atmosphere, theforests burnt down, the pollution addedto the atmosphere-will determine theextent, longevity, and effects of climatechange. Foresight is essential: while theeffects of climate change may not be feltimmediately or for some years to come,once it is set in motion, climate changemay take a very long time to be reversed.

Markets, Infrastructure,and International Trade

In recent years, many countries haveembarked on market reforms to moveaway from state-controlled or parastatalorganizations toward reliance on private

firms operating in free markets. The needfor such reforms is apparent in formercentrally planned countries, but it is alsoevident in a number of mixed economiesin the developing world. While clearlydesirable, such reforms must be undertak­en with care, taking into account theorganizational structure of the affectedmarkets. In some cases, inefficient para­statals are being replaced by oligopolisticor monopolistic private firms, with littleor no gains to farmers and consumers.The ongoing and unprecedented transi­tion from controlled to market economiesand from patrimonial to open politicalsystems has generated confusion aboutthe appropriate role of government andweakened the capacity of governments toperform needed functions. "Free" mar­kets are not necessarily the same as "com­petitive" markets, and government policyhas an important role in ensuring theemergence of efficient, competitive mar­kets as part of the reform process.

In many regions, especially Sub­Saharan Africa, food marketing costs areextremely high. Lowering these coststhrough investment in improved trans­portation infrastructure and marketingfacilities (which also increase competi­tion) may be as important in loweringfood prices to consumers as increasingagricultural productivity. Many countrieshave made major improvements in recentyears, but investments in infrastructure,especially transport and communication,are far below needed levels. Road, rail,port, and storage infrastructures are inade­quate, while telecommunications, electric­ity, piped water, and sanitation systemsreach only certain segments of society.

Past investments have tended to favorurban areas. Investments in creatingand maintaining basic infrastructure inAfrican countries, in particular, lag behindinvestments in Asian and Latin Americancountries.

The rapid growth of world trade andincreased integration of developing coun­tries into the global economy since WorldWar II have changed the nature of thedevelopment process. No country caninsulate itself from the world economy:trade policy and development policy gohand-in-hand. The value of worldexports grew, on average; by 11 percentper year between 1950 and 1990, muchfaster than world income. The share ofdeveloping countries in world trade roseLo 26 percent in 1992-93, doubling injust over 20 years. Many developingcountries have gained enormously fromincreased participation in world marketsas world trade has become increasinglyliberalized, largely through a series ofmajor rounds of trade negotiations underthe General Agreement on Tariffs andTrade (GATT), including the recentlycompleted Uruguay Round. There hasalso been a proliferation of regional trad­ing arrangements, such as the NorthAmerican Free Trade Association(NAFTA), MERCOSUR in Latin America,and a proposed Asia-Pacific free tradearea. All indications are that these trendswill continue into the future.

The results of 2020 Vision researchand other work indicate that increasedregional integration and further global lib­eralization are good for most developingcountries. World trade in agricultural

goods will continue to increase, implyingthat developing countries should not seekfood self-sufficiency but should pursueself-reliance through specialization andincreased trade in agricultural and manu­factured goods for which they have com­parative advantage. 2020 Vision researchalso shows that developing countries bene­fit from regional trade arrangements thatinclude one or more developed economies,but that they gain little from integrationwith other developing countries alone.For the low-income, food-importing coun­tries, global trade liberalization and policyreform in agricultural subsidy policies indeveloped countries is a mixed blessing.They gain from increased access todeveloped-country markets, but they areless able to compete in those markets thanother, better situated, developing coun­tries. And they lose from higher foodprices that may occur in the medium termwith cutbacks in agricultural subsidies inthe developed countries.

Domestic ResourceMobilization andInternational Assistance

The major source of aggregate investmentin virtually all countries is domestic sav­ings. For the low-income countries, thevicious circle of poverty still exists-lowincome leads to low savings, low invest­ment, low growth, continued poverty, andcontinued low savings. Developing coun­tries vary widely in their ability to mobi­lize savings and achieve high rates ofinvestment. During the past 20 years,

No country caninsulate itself

from the worldeconomy: trade pol­icy and developmentpolicy go hand-in­hand.

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several countries in Asia and LatinAmerica have become economic success­es, with rising investment rates and rapidgrowth. For example, investment ratesnow exceed 3S percent of GDP inIndonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. InSub-Saharan Africa, however, the share ofGDP devoted to investment has fallen inthe past two decades from 20 to 16 per­cent, while the domestic savings rate hasfallen from 18 to 15 percent. These ratesare far from those needed to bring abouttarget economic growth rates. Existingforeign debt in many developing coun­tries makes increased domestic savingsand investment extremely difficult forthese countries. Current efforts to relievedebt burdens must be strengthened topermit developing countries to generatethe necessary domestic investment torealize the 2020 Vision.

Foreign private investment, loansfrom international organizations, and offi­cial development assistance (ODA) havelong been seen as ways to increase invest­ment in developing countries and tobreak out of the poverty cycle, althoughthere is widespread recognition now thatsuch foreign investment must be accom­panied by complementary domestic poli­cy reforms if it is to be successful. Privateflows to developing countries haveincreased substantially since the late1980s. In 1993, these flows, whichinclude direct investments, internationalbank lending, and bond lending, consti­tuted 56 percent of total net resourceflows to developing countries, up from

39 percent in 1989. Most of these flows,however, go to a small number of medium­income, semi-industrial countries in LatinAmerica and Asia. Poorer countries,especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, arealmost entirely left out and depend muchmore on aid flows.

ODA to developing countries is slow­ing, however. ODA from the 21 membersof the Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD)grew at an annual rate of 3 percent in realterms from the early 1970s to 1992, peak­ing at $60.9 billion in 1992. Driven bycuts in foreign assistance in 17 countries,ODA dropped by more than 6 percent in1993. Its share of GNP fell to a 20-yearlow of 0.3 percent. Assistance from non­OECD countries has dropped even moredramatically; Arab OPEC countries pro­vided 25 percent of world ODA in theearly 1980s but contributed less than2 percent in 1993. While foreign aid bud­gets rose during the 1980s, assistance todeveloping-country agriculture declinedin real terms from $12 billion to $10 bil­lion. Agriculture's share of total develop­ment assistance declined from 20 to14 percent during the same period.Given these trends in aid availability,developing countries are challenged to

devise strategies for accomplishing theirgoals with less aid.

A summary of the actions required toaddress each of the challenges describedin this section appears in tabular form inthe appendix.

Recommended Action

The above review of problems andchallenges suggests that the 2020Vision-eradication of hunger and

malnutrition, sustainable management ofnatural resources, and efficient, effective,and low-cost agricultural systems-willbe realized only if broad-based economicdevelopment is accelerated, particularlyin low-income developing countries; ifsound practices for managing naturalresources are adopted; if investments inresearch, technology, and infrastructureare enhanced; if competitive markets areencouraged; if women have a greatervoice in decisionmaking at all levels; iflow-income people, especially women,gain greater access to remunerativeemployment, productive assets, markets,education, and health care; and if armedconflicts and civil strife are limited.

Agriculture's dual contribution in fos­tering broad-based sustainable economicdevelopment and meeting future foodneeds must be better recognized andexploited. Agriculture is a major contrib­utor to overall economic development indeveloping countries, especially thelowest-income ones where it providesthree-quarters of employment, nearly halfof GDp, and more than half of all exportearnings. The recent tendency by inter­national development institutions anddeveloping-country governments toreduce investments in agriculture becausethe global food supply situation is suffi­cient to meet current market demand failsto recognize that many people go hungrybecause they are too poor to convert theirfood needs into effective market demand.It also fails to recognize the tremendousopportunities the agriculture sector offers

for accelerating broad-based economicdevelopment and reducing poverty inboth rural and urban areas, therebyimproving food security. Developingcountries must take advantage of theopportunities offered by the agriculturesector to realize the 2020 Vision.

No magic solution will make the2020 Vision a reality. The action neededis not new, but it will require joint effortsby and new or strengthened partnershipsbetween individuals, households, fanners,local communities, the private sector,civil society, national governments, andthe international community. It willrequire a change in behavior, priorities,and policies. And it will require strength­ened cooperation between industrializedand developing countries as well asamong developing countries.

Each country must design its ownaction program. As a general guideline,however, research and consultations iden­tified the need for sustained action in sixpriority areas to realize the 2020 Vision.Specific recommendations for action areprovided below for each of these areas.These recommendations may serve as apoint of departure for the design of coun­try-specific strategies and action:

1. Strengthen the capacity of developing­country governments to performappropriate functions;

2. Enhance the productivity, health, andnutrition of low-income people andincrease their access to employmentand productive assets;

3. Strengthen agricultural research andextension systems in and for develop­ing countries;

D evelopingcountries must

take advantage ofthe opportunitiesoffered by the agri­culture sector torealize the 2020Vision.

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Each countrymust identify

the appropriatefunctions of itsgovernment vis-a­vis other parts ofsociety. Thegovernmentscapacity to performthese functions mustbe strengthenedwhile it relinquishesthose functionsbetter performedby others.

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4. Promote sustainable agricultural inten­sification and sound management ofnatural resources, with increasedemphasis on areas with agriculturalpotential, fragile soils, limited rainfall,and widespread poverty;

5. Develop efficient, effective, and low­cost agricultural input and output mar­kets; and

6. Expand international cooperation andassistance and improve its efficiencyand effectiveness.

The strategy discussed here is focusedmostly on developing-country govern­ments; however, it should be recognizedthat industrialized countries have aresponsibility to maintain policies,including agriculture and trade policies,that facilitate, rather than impede, therealization of the 2020 Vision.

Strengthening the Capacityof Developing-CountryGovernments to PerformTheir Appropriate Functions

More effective national and local govern­ments are essential to realize the 2020Vision. The other partners-individuals,households, farmers, private sector,NGOs, and other members of civil soci­ety-cannot realize the 2020 Vision ontheir own. The success of their effortsdepends on the economic, social, andpolitical conditions created or supportedby governments.

A transition in the role of govern­ments has been under way in a number of

countries in recent years, but thereremains considerable confusion and dis­agreement about their role. Currentefforts to reform the public sector threat­en to weaken the ability and capacity ofmany governments to carry out the activi­ties they should undertake. Each countrymust identify the appropriate functions ofits government vis-a.-vis other parts ofsociety. The government's capacity toperform these functions must be strength­ened while it relinquishes those functionsbetter performed by others. Predictabilityand transparency in policymaking andenforcement, currently lacking in manycountries, are critical to assist the privatesector to anticipate the investment envi­ronment. Continuity in policy design andimplementation is also important.

Improved security and personal safetyin rural and urban areas are prerequisitesfor realizing the 2020 Vision; governmentsmust maintain law and order. Wherearmed conflicts and civil strife are occur­ring or are imminent, civil society, govern­ments, and the international communitymust give priority to conflict resolutionand prevention. International develop­ment institutions, in partnership withgovernments and communities, shouldexpand and strengthen early warning sys­tems and response mechanisms for foodand political crises. National and interna­tional development agencies should incor­porate conflict prevention into programand project planning by identifying areaswhere the potential for conflict is high anddefusing them by delivering aid in a man­ner that avoids competition and fosters ordemands cooperation among groups orcommunities; by directing resources to

those areas that might be conflict-prone;by finding and promoting "engines ofgrowth" to overcome perceived scarcitiesand to move people beyond scarcities; andby providing opportunities for men andwomen from conflict-affected areas to par­ticipate in project planning, implementa­tion, and evaluation.

Governments must develop andenforce rules, regulations, standards, andmeasures in private-sector markets andpromote and assure competition in thesemarkets. States play an important role inassuring that conditions necessary forcompetition in private-sector markets arepresent. Governments must also invest inor facilitate private-sector investment ineducation, health care, agriculturalresearch, infrastructure, and otherpublic goods.

Policies to support the 2020 Visionshould be guided by a long-term nationalstrategy for food security, human nutri­tion, agricultural development, and man­agement of natural resources. The agri­cultural system (including production,processing, distribution, and related activ­ities) is likely to be the most appropriatecornerstone of such a strategy, especiallyin low-income developing countries,given its pivotal role in food production,income generation, employment provi­sion, export earnings, and general eco­nomic development.

If, as many countries have agreed,freedom from hunger is a basic humanright, governments should live up to thiscommitment by facilitating a social andeconomic environment that provides allcitizens with the opportunity to obtain

adequate food. Rather than striving fornational self-suffiCiency in food (by pro­ducing all of the food needed to meet mar­ket demand), countries should strive forsustainable self-reliance in food (by pro­ducing or importing enough food to meetmarket demand at reasonable prices).

An appropriate macroeconomic envi­ronment is essential to realize the 2020Vision. Governments must maintainexchange rates and monetary and fiscalpolicies appropriate for accelerated broad­based economic development. Subsidies(explicit and implicit), policies, and regu­lations that lower the cost of capital rela­tive to labor and promote capital-intensivegrowth where labor is relatively cheapmust be avoided. Macroeconomic reformsand structural adjustment programsshould be continued, but redesignedwhere necessary to promote enhancedaccess by the poor to income-generatingassets and to protect the poor from nega­tive effects.

Governments can facilitate the transi­tion to more open international marketsand increased trade by investing in mar­ket information facilities and other infra­structure; by adopting policies to helpdiversify production of goods and ser­vices in response to emerging marketsand changing relative prices; by improv­ing the competitiveness of agriculturaland other systems; and by developing andexpanding small-scale, labor-intensive,private-sector agricultural processing inboth rural and urban areas. Governmentsshould invest in or facilitate private-sec­tor investment in storage, transfer, trans­port, and marketing services.

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For the 2020Vision to be

realized, the effortsand contributions ofcivil society must befully recognized andsupported and amore effective coor­dination and distri­bution of laborbetween governmentand civil societymust be achieved.

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Developing countries must enhancetheir access to international marketsthrough bilateral and multilateral tradenegotiations and regional integration.They should push for full and timelyimplementation of the recently concludedGATT agreement, and press for furtherreform of global trade in agriculture andother sectors to accelerate income growthand assure that the increasing trendtoward regional trade or economicarrangements is compatible with subse­quent international trade liberalization.At the same time, they should implementexisting regional integration agreementsin a manner that does not precludesubsequent global integration.

As governments strengthen theircapacity to fulfil their proper role, theymust let go of activities best done byother groups in society, such as privateenterprise or NGOs. In many countries,NGOs and other parts of civil societyhave come to playa much more impor­tant role in areas traditionally coveredby government, such as poverty reliefand other transfer programs for low­income people, health care and nutritionprograms, income-generation schemes,credit programs for low-income ruralhouseholds, management of naturalresources, and agricultural extension.NGOs have also been effective in influ­encing government action throughadvocacy. For the 2020 Vision to berealized, the efforts and contributionsof civil society must be fully recognizedand supported and a more effective coor­dination and distribution of laborbetween government and civil societymust be achieved.

National governments must delegatemore policy responsibility and authorityto provincial and local governments andencourage fuller participation by localpeople in local decisions. This will makegovernment policies and public-sectorspending more effective and responsive tolocal needs and resources while providinga better foundation for interactionbetween government and civil society.

In summary, the 2020 Vision initiativerecommends that governments should

• Assure predictability, transparency; andcontinuity in policymaking andenforcement;

• Engage in conflict resolution and pre­vention, in collaboration with civil soci­ety and the international community;

• Establish and enforce property rights incollaboration with local communities;

• Develop a national strategy to achievethe goals embodied in the 2020 Vision;

• Facilitate the work of NGOs;

• Enforce rules, regulations, and mea­sures to promote and assure competi­tion in private-sector markets;

• Maintain exchange rates and monetaryand fiscal policies appropriate forbroad-based economic development;

• Seek improved access to internationalmarkets through bilateral and multilat­eral trade negotiations and regionalintegration and press for further reformof global trade; and

• Delegate policy responsibility andauthority to local governments andencourage local participation in deci­sion making.

The international assistance agencies,including bilateral donors and multilateralinstitutions, should support these actionsthrough technical and financial assistance.

Enhancing the Productivity,Health, and Nutrition ofLow-Income People andIncreasing Their Access toEmployment andProductive Assets

The 2020 Vision will not be realizedunless developing countries invest inpoor people to improve their well-being,increase their productivity, and enhancetheir access to remunerative emplo)l1nentand productive assets.

Governments, local communities, andNGOs should assure access to a completeprimary education for all children, withimmediate emphasis on improved accessfor female and rural children; to primaryhealth care, including reproductive healthservices, for all people; to clean water andsanitation services; and to training forbasic literacy and skill development inadults. They should work together tostrengthen and enforce legislation andprovide incentives for gender equality.Improved access by the rural poor, espe­cially women, to productive resources canbe facilitated through land reform andsound property rights legislation,strengthened credit and savings institu­tions, more effective labor and land mar­kets, and infrastructure for small-scaleenterprises. Labor-intensive public works

programs have proven effective in gener­ating employment, raising incomes, alle­viating poverty and food insecurity, andcreating infrastructure. Governmentsmust expand employment through broad­based economic development, using agri­culture as the engine of growth in low­income developing countries, and remov­ing implicit and explicit subsidies onlabor-replacing capital.

Investments to increase the productiv­ity of rural people should take high priori­ty in most developing countries, partlybecause the majority of the poor are foundin rural areas and partly because failure to

increase productivity of rural people canresult in excessive outmigration and asso­ciated increases in urban poverty as wellas further degradation of natural resourcesin areas receiving the migrants.

The rate at which population growsin developing countries is one of the keyfactors conditioning \-vhen and whetherthe 2020 Vision is realized. Strategies toreduce population growth rates includeproviding full access to reproductivehealth services to meet unmet needs forcontraception; eliminating risk factorsthat promote high fertility, such as highrates of infant mortality or lack of securi­ty for women who are dependent on theirchildren for support because they lackaccess to income, credit, or assets; andproviding young women \vith education.Female education is among the mostimportant investments for realizing the2020 Vision.

Direct transfer programs, includingprograms for poverty relief, food security,and nutrition intervention, are needed in

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many countries, at least in the short term.Such programs must be better targeted tothe poor, and their food security effectsmonitored. Social safety nets for the ruralpoor are urgently needed. To assureappropriateness, the intended beneficia­ries and the communities where they arelocated should be involved in the design,implementation, and monitoring of pro­grams. Empowering women to have avoice in local decisionmaking will enabletheir needs to be recognized and addressed.The national capacity of most developingcountries for identifying and targetingvulnerable individuals, households, andcommunities should be strengthened.Governments must maintain support foreffective famine early warning systemsand other disaster preparedness and man­agement systems.

While national governments will con­tinue to have a critical role in supportingthe policies and programs described, thecontributions of local communities andNGOs must also be strengthened. A bet­ter integration of the various actors andtheir responsibilities is urgently needed.Governments should find ways to transferpublic funds to NGOs and local comnlU­nities for programs best handled by them.Governments and NGOs should identifylow-cost methods for providing social ser­vices to rural areas and seek opportunitiesfor financing through user fees and othermeans of community-based resourcemobilization.

In summary, the 2020 Vision initiativerecommends that governments should

• Assure access to and support for a com­plete primary education for all chil-

dren, with immediate emphasis onfemale and rural children;

• Assure access to primary health care,including reproductive health services,for all people;

• Improve access to clean water and sani­tation for all people;

• Provide training in literacy and skilldevelopment for adults;

• Strengthen and enforce legislation andprovide incentives to empower women;

• Improve access by the poor to produc­tive resources;

• Improve targeting of programs tothe poor; and

• Maintain support for effective earlywarning systems and other disaster pre­paredness and management systems.

International assistance agenciesshould provide financial support for theseactions on grant terms or as long-termlow-interest loans.

Strengthening AgriculturalResearch and ExtensionSystems in and forDeveloping Countries

To realize the 2020 Vision of access tolow-cost food for all people, developingcountries, especially the low-incomeones, must increase the productivity ofagricultural production per unit of landand per agricultural worker and decreaseunit costs in agricultural production, pro­cessing, and distribution.

The required productivity gains willbe possible only if agricultural researchsystems are mobilized to develop improvedagricultural technologies and techniquesand if extension systems are strengthenedto assure dissemination of the improvedtechnologies and techniques to both maleand female farmers. In many developingcountries, especially the low-income ones,the public sector will have to carry outmuch of the needed agricultural research.Private-sector agricultural research is vir­tually nonexistent in these countries andis unlikely to increase significantly in thenear future because private companiescannot capture enough benefits to makesuch investment worthwhile. If appropri­ate laws on intellectual property rights aredesigned and enforced, some of therequired research could be undertaken, orat least financed, by the private sector, butit is likely that private-sector agriculturalresearch will continue to playa muchmore important role in higher-incomedeveloping countries than in lower-incomeones. Interactions between public-sectoragricultural research systems, farmers,private companies that conduct research,private enterprises in food processing anddistribution, and NGOs should bestrengthened to assure relevance ofresearch and appropriate distribution ofresponsibilities.

Each country must decide how muchto invest in agricultural research, given itsown priorities and options as well asexpected economic benefits and the bene­fits forgone by not investing the fundselsewhere. If the 2020 Vision is to berealized, however, low-income developingcountries must sharply expand their

investments in agricultural research. Aminimum target of 1 percent of the valueof total agricultural output is appropriatefor most low-income developing coun­tries, with a longer-term (5-10 year) tar­get of 2 percent. Priority should be givento redressing the balance between scien­tific personnel and other expenses; inmany low-income countries, includingmost of those in Sub-Saharan Africa,available funds per agricultural researcherare insufficient to assure efficient andeffective use of the human resources.

Each country should develop a portfo­lio of research activities that addresses itsneeds, including needs articulated bysmall farmers, and expected social returns.Agricultural research should also be con­ducted on crops that women grow; andshould utilize more fully women's indige­nous knowledge base. Research activitiesshould aim to reduce unit costs in agricul­tural production, processing, and distribu­tion; increase the quantity and improvethe quality (including the nutritionalquality) of food produced; assure sustain­ability in production through sound use ofnatural resources; reduce risks and lossesin production, processing, and distribu­tion; and reduce the use of chemical pesti­cides where possible.

Although more research is needed forall ecoregions, there is an urgent need forresearch on areas with significant agricul­tural potential; low or irregular rainfall,fragile soils; large populations of poorpeople; and high risks of land degrada­tion, deforestation, and loss of biodiversi­ty. Although specific research prioritiesshould be determined separately for each

I ~ many de~elop­mg countnes,

especially the low­income ones, thepublic sector willhave to carry outmuch of the neededagliculturalresearch.

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Since the toolsand techniques

of modern molecularbiology are beingdeveloped primarilyin OEeD countries,new partnershipsneed to be forgedbetween private-and public-sectorresearch in thesecountries, develop­ing-country researchinstitutions, andinternational agri­cultural researchcenters.

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region, additional research is necessary todevelop drought-tolerant and pest- anddisease-resistant crops, biological pestmanagement, nitrogen fixation, moreeffective use of locally available organicmaterials, intercropping systems, andperennial crops, including agroforestry.

National agricultural research must besupported by a vibrant international agri­cultural research system that undertakesstrategic research of a public-goods naturewith large international benefits. Currentinvestment in international and regionalagricultural research is grossly insufficientto provide the support needed by nationalagricultural systems and must be substan­tially increased to realize the 2020 Vision.

In industrial countries, biotechnologyresearch by private companies and public­sector agricultural research institutions isproducing exciting breakthroughs andsignificant gains for agriculture. However,this research is focused on temperate-zoneagriculture. With some notable excep­tions, such as the work on rice sponsoredby the Rockefeller Foundation and thework done by some member centers ofthe Consultative Group on InternationalAgricultural Research (CGIAR), advancesin biotechnology for agriculture arebypassing developing countries, particU­larly the low-income ones located in trop­ical regions, because the results are oftenirrelevant to their agricultural problems.It is urgent that modern molecular biolo­gy be brought to bear on the agriculturalproblems of developing countries.

Few developing countries can affordto develop the tools of biotechnology.Even fewer can afford not to use these

tools as they become available. Since thetools and techniques of modem molecu­lar biology are being developed primarilyin OECD countries, new partnershipsneed to be forged between private- andpublic-sector research in these countries,developing-country research institutions,and international agricultural researchcenters. Each developing country shoulddevelop a clear policy on and researchagenda for biotechnology based on exist­ing and potential future research capacityand opportunities for regional coopera­tion and partnerships. To enhance thesocial benefits of agricultural research,including biotechnology, developingcountries should develop clear intellectu­al property rights and biosafety regula­tions and remove inappropriate legal andinstitutional barriers to private invest­ment in research needed to bring aboutthe 2020 Vision.

International assistance is required tosupport a research portfolio appropriate foreach developing country; to increase sup­port for international agricultural research;and to facilitate biotechnology research inOECD countries that is sharply focused ondeveloping-country problems. Partner­ships need to be enhanced among nationalagricultural research institutions in devel­oping countries, international agriculturalresearch institutions, and relevant public­and private-sector institutions and compa­nies in OECD countries in order to expandresearch of critical importance for develop­ing countries.

Effective interactions between farmersand research institutions are essential fordisseminating research results and tech-

nology and assuring that research priori­ties reflect the needs of farmers. In somecountries, the private sector and farmercooperatives effectively perform theseextension functions. Because of itspublic-goods nature, however, agricultur­al extension for small-scale farmers pro­ducing staple foods must continue to beprovided primarily by the public sector.

Public-sector extension in developingcountries has a mixed performancerecord. Innovative strategies and tech­niques are required to assure effectivenessin the future. Extension services muststrengthen communications betweenresearchers and farmers and among farm­ers themselves. The importance of infor­mation for the agricultural system willincrease dramatically between now and2020. Mass media-utilizing satellitecommunications technology, radio, andvideo-can help transmit to farmers tech­nical and market information adapted totheir regions or farming systems.Extension programs conducted by thepublic sector and nongovernmental orga­nizations can help local farmers or groupsto improve land husbandry, make com­munity investments, coordinate farminvestments, obtain access to varioussources of information, experiment withfarming techniques, and share local itmo­vations. New approaches to extensioninclude providing farmer groups withmatching resources to contract for privateor public extension services.

In summary, the 1010 Vision initiativerecommends that governments should

• Raise national agricultural researchexpenditures in developing countries

rapidly to a target of at least 1 percentof the value of agricultural output witha longer term (5-10 years) target of1 percent;

• Develop a portfolio of research activi­ties that address the country's needs;

• Expand agricultural research for allecoregions, with emphasis on areaswith significant agricultural potentialbut with fragile soils, low or irregularrainfall, and widespread poverty andnatural resource degradation;

• Strengthen interaction between public­sector agricultural research systems,farmers, private enterprises, and NGOsto assure relevance of research; and

• Develop a clear policy on and agenda forbiotechnology research; forge partner­ships between developing-countryresearch systems, international researchinstitutions, and private- and public­sector research institutions in industrial­ized countries; and provide incentivesfor the private sector to undertakebiotechnology research focused on theproblems of developing-country farmers.

International assistance agenciesshould

• Increase financial support for nationaland international agricultural researchfor developing countries;

• Facilitate biotechnology researchsharply focused on developing-countryproblems in public-sector research insti­tutions of industrialized countries; and

• Strengthen partnerships among nationalagricultural research institutions indeveloping countries, internationalagricultural research institutions, and

The importanceof information

for the agriculturalsystem will increasedramaticallybetween now and2020.

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relevant public- and private-sector insti­tutions and companies in industrializedcountries to expand research of criticalimportance for developing countries.

Promoting SustainableAgricultural Intensificationand Sound Management ofNatural Resources, withIncreased Emphasis onAreas with AgriculturalPotential, Fragile Soils,Limited Rainfall, andWidespread PovertyA large share of the world's poor, food­insecure, and malnourished people live inrural areas with significant agriculturalpotential, limited and unreliahle rainfall,and fragile soils. The land in these areasis often degraded and deforested. The2020 Vision cannot be realized withoutlarge investments in these areas. Theyrequire public- and private-sector invest­ments in infrastructure, market develop­ment, natural resource conservation, soilimprovements, agricultural research,reproductive health services and familyplanning, primary education, and primaryhealth care and nutrition programs.Although, in the long run, outmigrationmay be the answer for some of theseareas, few countries are in a pOSition totake in large numbers of mostly poor andpoorly educated people between now and2020. Moreover, outmigration merelytransfers poverty and population pres­sures to urban areas and rural areas with

better natural resources. Failure toaddress the problems within the areasthemselves will accelerate degradation ofnatural resources and increase poverty,food insecurity, and malnutrition.

In areas where current productivity islow but agricultural potential is signifi­cant, public policy and public-sectorinvestment should promote sustainableuse of existing natural resources toenhance the productivity of agricultureand other rural enterprises. Govern­ments, in close collaboration with localcommunities and nongovernmental orga­nizations, should establish and enforceclearly specified systems of rights to useand manage natural resources, includingland, water, and forests. Incentives, suchas partial coverage of costs, should beprovided to farmers and local communi­ties to undertake activities to restoredegraded lands. Local control overresources should be enhanced andenforced, and local capacity for organiza­tion and management should be improved.Public institutions responsible for manag­ing and regulating publicly and privatelyowned natural resources must bereformed to increase user participation inmanagement and to provide incentives forprivate and community investment in andprotection of resources. New forms ofland- and other resource-improvinginvestments, such as cofinancing betweenlocal communities, government, and pri­vate corporations should be explored.Appropriate policies are needed toaddress the problem of externalities, inwhich the costs of a decision made by aperson or group of persons may have tobe borne by others. Such externalities,

including failure to account fully for theeffects of actions on future generations,may lead to another problem: inappropri­ate pricing of resources.

Efforts at natural habitat preservationshould be pursued where critical to pro­tect biodiversity, preferably in areas thatare sparsely populated, have little or noinfrastructure, and are of a size that canbe effectively policed. Intensified agricul­tural production may be inappropriate forthese areas. A moratorium on construc­tion of infrastructure, particularly roads,that attract new migrants to these areasshould be considered. Farmers and com­munities can be encouraged to establishprotected habitat areas, such as wildlifecorridors, and sacred groves, or to reestab­lish native vegetation along waterways orroads. Where protecting such areas pre­sents clear international benefits, interna­tional contributions should support alter­native sources of livelihood for popula­tions in and around the areas.

Low and declining soil fertility is awidespread and serious problem in manydeveloping countries, including most ofthose in Sub-Saharan Africa. Past andcurrent failures to replenish soils with thenutrients removed must be rectifiedthrough the balanced and efficient use ofplant nutrients from both organic andinorganic sources and through improvedsoil management practices. In view of thesize and seriousness of the soil fertilityproblem in many low-income, food-deficitdeveloping countries, policies providingincentives for farmers and communitiesto implement integrated soil fertility pro­grams are needed. Such policies should

focus on assuring clear, long-term proper­ty rights to land; access to credit,improved crop varieties, and relevantinformation about efficient fertilizer usein various production systems; efficientand effective markets for plant nutrients;investments in roads and rural transporta­tion systems; and temporary fertilizersubsidies where prices are high due toinadequate infrastructure or poorly func­tioning markets. Fertilizer subsidies,which are not generally desirable oradvisable, may be the only way to raisefertilizer use in some locations where it ismost needed. In the longer term, fertiliz­er costs to farmers can be reduced and theneed for price subsidies eliminated byinvesting in distribution infrastructure,providing innovative ways to share risksand finance, and encouraging regionalcooperation for country-level fertilizerproduction facilities and procurement.

As concerns build about the environ­mental and health consequences of chem­ical pesticides, alternative pest manage­ment techniques must be developed tolower the substantial crop losses thatoccur every year due to pests. These lossesmust be reduced if an increasing worldpopulation is to be fed largely from exist­ing land. Developing countries shouldadopt national policies to use onlyenough chemical pesticides to be effectiveand to minimize the negative effects ofsuch pesticides. IPM programs should bepromoted as the central pest managementstrategy. Such programs rely on safe andenvironmentally sound techniques suchas biological control, host-plant resis­tance, and biopesticides, while usingchemical pesticides only as a last resort.

D evelopi.ngcountnes

should adoptnational policies touse only enoughchemical pesticidesto be effective andto minimize thenegative effects ofsuch pesticides.

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A ccording to2020 Vision

consultations, alarge share of exist­ing land degrada­tion is technicallyreversible, but thecost of doing so ishigh.

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Extension of IPM, which has been suc­cessfully implemented in many locations,should receive both national and interna­tional support. Governments are alsoadvised to remove pesticide subsidies; toincrease investment in research on safeand environmentally sound alternatives tochemical pesticides; to facilitate private­sector investment in new strategies; toretrain research and extension staff in newtechniques; and to ensure that farmersaccept and implement the effective andappropriate strategies of pest managementthat are developed.

According to 2020 Vision consulta­tions, a large share of existing land degra­dation is technically reversible, but thecost of doing so is high. For example,large investments are needed to drainwaterlogged areas and to replenish soilnutrients. In most cases, neither marketnor policy incentives are presently strongenough for farmers or other private-sectoragents to undertake them. Thus, eitherthe government must make the invest­ment or the land will be left to deterioratefurther until incentives are right. Whenprices for productive agricultural landincrease, prices for food or other agricul­tural commodities rise, or technologicalimprovements create a potentially prof­itable situation, the degraded land will berestored. Another option is to increasethe productivity of degraded land throughresearch: for example, crop varieties withhigher salt tolerance could be developedto permit planting in salinized soils.Even though some damage from degrada­tion can be overcome, minimizing degra­dation in the first place is usually muchless expensive.

Natural fisheries are another resourcefor which government action is urgentlyneeded to avoid unsustainable exploita­tion. Recognizing that natural fisheriesare open access areas, the internationalcommunity must develop and enforce aglobal program of coordination andrestraint to prevent exploitation of theseareas beyond sustainable limits. Inter­national codes and regulations must allowfor recovery of fisheries that have beenoverexploited and must halt intensive usein areas where fisheries are fully exploit­ed. Since takes from marine fishing arealready far in excess of sustainable limitsand economic efficiency, governmentsshould reduce fishing in the short runand help fishermen move to other occu­pations.

Growing national, regional, and localwater scarcities will depress agriculturalproduction, worsen water-related healthproblems, degrade land and waterresources, and catalyze water conflictsbetween users within a country andbetween countries. To address waterscarcities, new water resources must bedeveloped and better use made of existingwater supplies. National governmentsshould invest in carefully selected, eco­nomically efficient projects to develop newsources of water from dams and wells.

Because developing new waterresources is expensive and potentiallyharmful to the environment, and becauseit may displace people from dam andreservoir sites, only a portion of risingdemand can be met from new sources. Alarger share of water to meet growingdemands will have to come from more

efficient use of water in agriculture,industry, and urban areas. National gov­ernments must embark on comprehensivewater policy reforms to improve incen­tives to users to save water to improveprocedures for water allocation, and todevelop and disseminate better technolo­gy for water supply and delivery. Policyreforms must provide secure water rightsvested in individuals or groups of waterusers to provide investment incentives,improve water use efficiency, reduceincentives to degrade the environment,and increase flexibility in resource alloca­tion. In some countries and regions,these rights should be tradable, whichwill provide further incentive to conservewater. Irrigation infrastructure and man­agement should be turned over to wateruser associations where well-definedwater rights provide incentives for usergroups to economize on water use.Governments must reform distorted priceincentives and reduce or remove subsi­dies on water to prevent overuse or mis­use of water. In estimating the value ofwater, the time women spend transport­ing it and the health benefits that accruefrom drinking clean water should be eval­uated. Regulatory instruments and mar­ket incentives should be introduced toconserve water and to protect land andwater resources. Governments shouldhelp make appropriate water conservationtechnology available.

The precise nature of water policyreform will vary from country to country,depending on underlying economic con­ditions and institutional capability, rela­tive water scarcity, and level of agricultur­al intensification. Water policy reform

must also transcend national boundaries.In many regions, long-term solutions willrequire international cooperation betweencountries sharing scarce water resources.

In summary, the 2020 Vision initiativerecommends that governments should

• Invest in and facilitate private-sectorinvestments in agricultural research,infrastructure, natural resource man­agement, and human resource develop­ment in areas with significant agricul­tural potential, limited rainfall, fragilesoils, and widespread poverty;

• Establish and enforce clearly specifiedsystems of rights to use and managenatural resources;

• Provide incentives to farmers and com­munities to restore degraded lands andprotect natural resources;

• Strengthen local control over resourcesand improve local capacity for organi­zation and management;

• Provide incentives to farmers and com­munities to implement integrated soilfertility programs in areas with low soilfertility through

• policies to assure clear, long-termproperty rights to land and access tocredit, improved crop varieties, andinformation about productionsystems;

• effective and efficient markets forplant nutrients;

• investments in roads and ruraltransportation systems; and

• temporary fertilizer subsidies whereprices are high clue to inadequateinfrastructure or poorly functioningmarkets;

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For the 2020Vision to be

realized, it is essen­tial that developingcountries adopt asystems view ofagriculture.

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• Promote IPM programs as the centralstrategy for pest management, removepesticide subsidies, seek safe and envi­ronmentally sound techniques, andincrease farmers' participation in devel­oping effective and appropriate strate­gies for pest management; and

• Undertake comprehensive water policyreforms to make better use of existingwater supplies by providing incentivesto water users, improving proceduresfor allocation, developing improvedtechnology for water supply and deliv­ery; providing secure water rights, andreforming distorted price incentives.

The international community mustdevelop and enforce codes and regula­tions to allow recovery of overexploitedmarine fisheries and to prevent exploita­tion beyond sustainable limits. Inter­national assistance agencies shouldprovide long-term low-interest loans tosupport investments in low-potentialareas and to support credit for integratedsoil fertility and drainage programs.

Developing Efficient,Effective, and Low-CostAgricultural Input andOutput Markets

Many developing countries are privatizingtheir agricultural input and output mar­kets, replacing inefficient, poorly func­tioning state marketing companies andexcessive, inappropriate government reg­ulations with private-sector marketingagents. It is essential that this process

results in efficient, effective, and competi­tive markets for at least three reasons:(1) the gains from improved efficiencyand reduced costs of marketing of staplefoods can have a significant effect on foodsecurity through lower consumer pricesand higher producer prices; (2) with therapid urbanization expected in develop­ing countries, efficient and effective foodmarketing becomes increasingly impor­tant; and (3) the rapid dietary transitionprojected for developing countries andinternational trade liberalization providesubstantial opportunities in developingcountries for competitive agricultural sys­tems to expand employment in process­ing, packaging, and other value-addedactivities based on agricultural commodi­ties. Agricultural systems will be compet­itive only if all components of the system,for example, input markets, production,and output markets, are efficient andeffective. For the 2020 Vision to be real­ized, it is essential that developing coun­tries adopt a systems view of agriculture.

To facilitate a successful transition,governments should identify their role inagricultural input and output markets andstrengthen their capacity to perform thisrole, while disengaging from functions bet­ter performed by other agents. The role ofthe state is to create an environment con­ducive to competition among privateagents in order to provide efficient andeffective services to producers and con­sumers, while assuring access to produc­tive resources by the poor to enable themto compete on equal terms. Policies andinstitutions that favor large-scale, capital­intensive market agents over small-scale,labor-intensive ones should be removed.

Market infrastructure that serves the pub­lic good, such as market information,roads and other rural transportation facili­ties, electricity, and communications facili­ties, should be developed and maintainedby direct public-sector investment or effec­tive regulation of private-sector invest­ment. Governments should develop andenforce standards, weights and measures,and regulatory instruments essential forthe markets to function. The failure ofgovernments to invest in these publicgoods will result in lack of competitionand in fewer and larger private companies,because larger companies are more likelyto be able to fill the government's rolewhere these basic public goods are absent.

Other tasks for government includeremoving institutional barriers to the cre­ation and expansion of small-scale creditand savings institutions and making themavailable to small traders, transporters,and processing enterprises. Such institu­tions have also been effective in manycountries in helping the poor to face riskand to generate more income. Govern­ments should provide technical assistanceand training to create or strengthen small­scale, competitive, private-sector marketarrangements. Policies and practices thatincrease distribution costs, such as formaland informal road tolls associated with thetransportation of agricultural commodities,should be abolished except when justifiedto cover the costs of constructing or main­taining the facility. Where distributioncosts in agricultural input and outputmarkets in low-income developing coun­tries are high, opportunities exist forreducing unit costs of food to consumerswithout reducing producer incomes.

Governments should allocate theresources necessary to develop and main­tain infrastructure, especially in ruralareas. They should also help revitalizelocal governments in rural areas and createinstitutions to help them develop andcoordinate new infrastructure. To improveefficiency, governments should recovercosts through user fees, select projectsbased on careful evaluation of potentialdemand for services, and involve privatecontractors in executing projects.

As international trade becomes moreopen and more countries join regional eco­nomic arrangements, countries that do notreduce high transactions costs will fail tobe competitive in both domestic and for­eign markets. Efficient and competitivemarkets for agricultural goods are alsoimportant for supporting developing coun­tries' efforts to expand employment andexport earnings by producing and process­ing high-value products. Expanded agro­processing can be an important source ofadditional rural and urban employment.While agroprocessing itself should beundertaken by the private sector, govern­ments should facilitate the expansion.

Finally, effective seed multiplicationand distribution systems, critical for dis­seminating improved seeds from agricul­tural research, are absent in many devel­oping countries. While the multiplicationand distribution activities may be under­taken by either the public or the privatesector, the government should assure aconducive environment for the privatesector to enter these activities and shoulddevelop and enforce regulations to assurequality control, competition, and access toimproved seeds by small farmers.

•

•

In summary, the 2020 Vision initiativerecommends that governments should:

• Phase out inefficient state-run firms inagricultural input and output markets;

• Remove policies and institutions thatfavor large-scale, capital-intensive mar­ket agents over small-scale, labor-inten­sive ones;

• Invest in or facilitate private-sectorinvestment to develop and maintainmarket infrastructure of a public-goodsnature;

• Facilitate development of small-scalecredit and savings institutions;

• Provide technical assistance and train­ing to create or strengthen small-scale,labor-intensive, competitive ruralenterprises in trade, processing, andrelated marketing activities; and

• Facilitate private-sector seed multipli­cation and distribution through regula­tions to assure quality control, compe­tition, and access to improved seeds bysmall-scale farmers.

The international assistance commu­nity should assist through technicaladvice and selective financial support of,for example, revolving funds for small­scale credit programs.

Expanding InternationalCooperation and Assistanceand Improving Its Efficiencyand Effectiveness

The 2020 Vision will be achieved only ifindividuals, households, communities,civil society, and local and national gov­ernments undertake the required actions.International development assistance canprovide only a fraction of the financialresources that will be needed to achievethe 2020 Vision. But these resources arecrucial and must be allocated in ways thatcomplement national and local efforts.Therefore, donors of international devel­opment assistance should focus their offi­cial government-to-government assistanceon countries whose governments havedemonstrated commitment to eradicatingpoverty, food insecurity; and malnutrition;to supporting an effiCient, effective, andlow-cost agriculture sector; and to pro­tecting the natural resource base fromdegradation-goals embodied in the2020 Vision.

The amount of international develop­ment assistance required to support theactions described here will exceed thedevelopment assistance currently avail­able. Therefore, both donor and recipientcountries must renew their efforts toassure that available international assis­tance is put to the best possible use.International development assistanceshould focus on four areas: (1) activitieswith large international benefits, such asinternational agricultural research andalleviation of global environmental prob­lems; (2) investments in public goods

with high social payoffs and long-termbenefits for broad-based economic growthand poverty alleviation, such as primaryeducation, primary health care, nutritionprograms, agricultural research, sustain­able use of natural resources, and physicaland institutional infrastructure; (3) pro­grams to foster more efficient and effec­tive use and allocation of resources sharedby more than one country, such as alloca­tion of water from a given river bas-inamong countries bordering the basin; and(4) efforts to assure that low-incomedeveloping countries realize their fairshare of the benefits from internationaltrade liberalization.

The current downward trend in inter­national assistance from the GEeD coun­tries must be reversed, and industrialcountries currently giving below theagreed-upon target of 0.7 percent of theirGNP should rapidly move toward that tar­get. It is in the self-interest of donors toprovide development assistance, not onlyto address important humanitarian con­siderations in developing countries, butalso to enhance employment and tradingopportunities in the donor countries.Developing countries are the largestpotential market in the world, but thatpotential must be developed. The fasterthese countries grow; the more theyimport. By helping them to grow, devel­opment assistance creates export marketsand economic growth for donor countries.

International assistance must berealigned to low-income developingcountries, primarily in Sub-SaharanAfrica and South Asia where the potentialfor further deterioration of food security

and degradation of natural resources isgreat. In higher-income developing coun­tries, concessional aid such as grantsshould be replaced by internationallyavailable commercial capital, freeingresources for low-income countries.

As the GATT agreements are imple­mented and distortions in the agriculturesectors of developed countries arereduced, the amount of food aid availablefor developing countries is likely to fall.Yet, the need for food aid, both for meet­ing humanitarian emergencies and forchronic food insecurity, is unlikely to bediminished. The international communi­ty will thus need to reassess how gapsbetween countries' food needs and theireconomic ability to meet these needs areto be filled.

International emergency assistancehas increased dramatically during recentyears at the expense of development assis­tance. Future emergency assistanceshould be linked with development tohelp prevent such emergencies and toenhance the ability of households to with­stand such emergencies.

Measures to diversify sources of exter­nal financing should be pursued, togetherwith measures to stem capital flight. Toimprove effectiveness of aid, each recipi­ent country should develop a coherent,detailed, and operationally useful strategyfor achieving the goals underlying the2020 Vision, identifying the most appro­priate use of international assistance.Where such a strategy already exists, itshould be reviewed periodically. The roleof international assistance should beclearly specified.

It is in the self­interest of donors

to provide develop­ment assistance, notonly to addressimportant humani­tarian considera­tions in developingcountries, but alsoto enhance employ­ment and tradingopportunities in thedonor countries.

II

II

In summary, the 2020 Vision recom­mends that developing-country govern­ments should

• Develop a national strategy for achiev­ing the goals underlying the 2020Vision, specifying the role of interna­tional assistance;

• Diversify sources of external financing;and

• Seek measures to stem capital flights.

International development institu­tions and bilateral donors should

• Focus official government-to­government assistance on countrieswhose governments demonstratecommitment to the goals underlyingthe 2020 Vision;

• Raise international assistance to reachthe target of 0.7 percent of GNP;

• Realign international assistance to low­income developing countries;

• Replace concessional aid to high~income

developing countries with international­ly available commercial capital;

• Maintain a certain minimum amount offood to be made available as food aid inemergency situations; and

• Focus international assistance on

• activities with large internationalbenefits,

• provision of public goods with largesocial payoffs,

• programs to encourage sharing ofresources across boundaries, and

• efforts to ensure that developingcountries realize their fair share ofbenefits from international trade lib­eralization.

What If We Do NotTake Action?

Existing resources are sufficient toachieve the 2020 Vision if we, theglobal community, take appropriate

action, including the necessary realloca­tion of resources. If appropriate action isnot taken, a time will come when naturalresource constraints will dictate ourfuture. Therefore, we must act now.Failure to do so will result in morehuman misery and more degradation ofnatural resources, which in turn willimpose misery on future generations andcause continued misallocation of scarce

resources. The benefits of appropriateaction will not be limited to poor peoplein developing countries. Everyone will beaffected. A world of extreme poverty onthe part of many and overt materialexcesses for some is an unstable world. Acontinuation of the dramatic widening ofthe gap between rich and poor experi­enced during the past 30 years will leadto more social and political instability,poor use of available resources, andfalling living standards for all. We mustact while we still have choices.

II

Regional Strategies toRealize the 2020 Vision

As part of the 2020 Vision initia­tive, IFPRI co-sponsored work­shops in three developing regions

of the world. Policymakers, researchers,and technical experts in each regiondeveloped regional strategies to realizethe 2020 Vision. The workshop on LatinAmerica, co-sponsored by the Inter­American Institute for Cooperation onAgriculture (nCA) and the CentroIntemacional de Agricultural Tropical(ClAT), was held in Cali, Colombia,March 20-22, 1995. The Institute forIntegrated Development Studies of Nepalco-sponsored the workshop on SouthAsia, which took place in Kathmandu,Nepal, March 26-29, 1995. The work­shop on Sub-Saharan Africa was held inSaly Portudal, Senegal, December 14-17,1994, and co-sponsored by the Office ofthe Coordinator-General of the Confer­ence of Ministers of Agriculture of Westand Central Africa.

Key elements of the strategies devisedfor each region are presented here.Further details may be obtained from thefull texts of the 2020 regional strategies.

latin America• Develop highly productive, sustainable

food and agricultural systems. Developtechnologies for all viable producers,especially small farmers, that increaseproductivity and protect the naturalresource base. Develop system compo­nents beyond production to includestorage, processing, and distribution.

• Facilitate responsible exploitation andprotection of natural resources. Developa consensus about the need to protectnatural resources among producers andthe general public; improve pesticide,water, and soil management; evaluatethe environmental impact of policiesand programs; and incorporate thevalue of natural resources in nationalaccounts.

• Strengthen market forces. Ensureappropriate legal and regulatory frame­works to promote and, where neces­sary, regulate competition in the privatesector; provide stable and transparentmacroeconomic policies; and ensurecomplementarity between macroeco­nomic and sectoral policies.

• Support the needs of the private sector.Provide and maintain public goods,such as communications and trans­portation infrastructure and agricultur­al research and extension, in collabora­tion with the private sector whereappropriate.

• Move decisionmaking and financialcontrol from the central to local levels.Create new institutional frameworksthat promote participatory democracyand allow local communities to identifytheir needs and design and administerprograms congruent with locally avail­able financial and human resources.

• Increase public-sector investment inhuman resources and basic infrastruc­ture. Improve the quality of and accessto education, primary health care, cleanwater, and sanitation, especially inrural areas and for women.

•

II

South Asia• Increase investment in the agriculture

sector through research and technologydevelopment and transfer, irrigationexpansion, and development of humanresources and rural infrastructure.

• Enhance access to improved agriculturaltechnologies by strengthening linkagesbetween research, extension, and farm­ers through a participatory approach;increasing information sharing andcommunication; and developing region­al networks.

• Develop productive, sustainable, envi­ronmentally friendly technologies bygiving high priority to formulation of asystems approach to agricultural devel­opment.

• Strengthen efforts to protect the envi­ronment by gradually discontinuingpolicies that lead to environmentaldegradation and promoting approachesthat increase agricultural productivityand sustainability

• Improve commercialization of agricul­ture through better production and mar­keting by increasing the role of the pri­vate sector, developing rural infrastruc­ture, and improving market intelligence.

• Increase investment in humanresources by introducing and strength­ening programs that target poor indi­viduals and households, emphasizingmaternal and child health and nutritionprograms, improving access to cleanwater and sanitation, providing safetynets for the poor, and investing in edu­cation.

• Improve trade linkages with the globaleconomy and with the Asia-Pacificregion, liberalize trade in feedgrains,and continue to liberalize trade andexchange rates.

• Improve government policies and thequality of governance at national andlocal levels, implement agrarianreforms, adopt macroeconomic policiesneutral if not favorable to agriculture,and ensure local participation in deci­sionmaking.

Sub-Saharan Africa• Proactively pursue national and interna­

tional competitiveness. At the nationallevel, develop lower-cost local productsand marketing systems for them,improve product quality, and createinnovative products through agropro­cessing; at the regional level, implementexisting regional integration agreements,harmonize national taxation policies,support policies for more efficient cross­border trade, and remove infrastructureand institutional barriers to flow ofcommodities across borders; and, at theglobal level, develop collective strategiesfor global trade negotiations to ensurefair access to markets.

• Reduce malnutrition and alleviatepoverty through broad-based economicgrowth, taking direct measures in thenear term such as targeted subsidies forvulnerable groups, targeted publicworks and other employment pro­grams, and child nutrition programsfor at-risk groups.

To accomplish these goals on a sus­tainable basis will require three actions:

• Increasing the productivity of agricul­tural production resources to achieve asustained 4 percent rate of agriculturalgrowth through in-depth scientificresearch, research on better practicesfor farm conditions, improved incen­tives, adequate attention to fertilizersupply, and improved transport;

• Boosting national public investment in

agriculture to 30 percent of nationalbudget outlay from the historical aver­age of 7 percent with effective andincreased domestic resource mobiliza­tion; and

• Improving the quality, stability, probity,and consistency of agricultural policy,encouraging effective rural participa­tion in political systems and develop­ing a locally based process of analyticalinput into policymaking.

1'1

Appendix

Challenge Current Status!Future Trend Change in Status/Trend Required Highlights of Actions

Food security and nutrition

Food security

Malnutrition

Obesity

Number of food-insecure people declining,but 800 million still lack access to sufficientfood for healthy, productive lives

Bleak prospects for reducing malnutritionamong children in Sub-Saharan Africa;reductions expected in other regions

Emerging in some areas, notably cities;likely to increase in coming years

Enhance

Reverse in Sub­Saharan Africa;enhance elsewhere

Reverse

Alleviate poverty, generate employ­ment and incomes, and improvefood distribution systems

Increase incomes, especiallyof women; enhance access toeducation, health care, cleanwater, and sanitation

Change underlying behavioraltrends; improve eating habits

Poverty and economic growth

Poverty Likely to persist in South Asia andLatin America and increase considerablyin Sub-Saharan Africa

Economic growth Growth rates expected to remain highin Asia and improve in Africa and LatinAmerica, but disparities likely to continueas Sub-Saharan Africa lags behind

Income disparities Income gap widening between the rich andpoor within and across countries

Human resource development

Reverse

Enhance

Reverse

Accelerate broad-basedeconomic growth, withagriculture as the engine ofgrowth in low-income countries

Accelerate income growthin slow-growing countriesthrough macroeconomicstabilization, market reforms,and improved human resources

Narrow gap by removingdisparities in access to markets,assets, and human developmentresources

Education

Health care

Clean water

Sanitation

Enrollment rates increasing but dropout rates Reverseremain high; girls complete fewer years ofschooling than boys

Improving, but 1 billion still lack health care Enhance

Improving; 70 percent have access to safe water Enhancenow compared with 36 percent in late 1970s

Improving, but almost 2 billion people do not Enhancehave access to sanitation services

Assure access to and supportfor completing primaryeducation for all children,especially female and ruralchildren

Assure access to primary healthcare for all, especially womenand children

Improve access to clean water

Improve access to sanitationand sewage services

•

Challenge Current Status/Future Trend Change in Status/Trend Required

Highlights of Actions

Food demand and diet changes

Food demand

Diet changes

Global per capita demand for foodgrainsforecast to grow 4 percent and demand forlivestock products 18 percent between 1990and 2020; demand growing faster in develop­ing than developed countries; not expected toincrease in Sub-Saharan Africa

Diets becoming more diverse: demand forlivestock products growing faster than forfoodgrains; demand for wheat and maizegrowing faster than for rice

Enhance

Subdue feedgraindemand

Generate employment andincomes, especially in Sub­Saharan Africa; lower unit costof food production and marketing

Improve feed conversion rates(feed needed for each unit ofanimal product produced) toreduce pressure all grainproduction

Demographic variables

Populationgrowth

Urbanization

Age composition

Displacement ofpeople

Food supply

World population likely to increase by about Subdue2.2 billion between now and 2020, 94 percentof it in the developing world

Urban population of developing countries Subdueexpected to more than double to 3.6 billionby 2020

Shifting toward older people in middle-incomecountries, while remaining very broad at youngages in low-income countries

50 million people displaced inside or outside Reversetheir countries; rapidly growing trend duringpast 10-20 years likely to continue

Reduce population growth rates,particularly in Africa; alleviatepoverty; increase education,especially for women; andstrengthen reproductive healthservices

Alleviate conditions in rural areascausing excessive migration;invest in both urban and ruralareas to respond to migration

Invest in education, employmentcreation, and income generation

Address sources of displacement:breakdown of civil society,poverty, and environmentaldegradation; enforce mechanismsfor conflict resolution and lawsprotecting civilians during conflicts

Food production Growth rate of food production lagging, but Enhancefoodgrain production likely to grow by 1.5percent per year and livestock by 1.9 percent;relatively good global food situation masksserious food problems in Sub-Saharan Africaand South Asia

•

Invest in agricultural research;encourage efficient, low-cost,and effective agriculturalsystems

Challenge

Food prices

Yields

Current Status/Future Trend

Likely to remain stable or decline formost foods

Stagnation or slowdown in rate of growth ofmajor cereals

Change in Status/Trend Required

Enhance

Reverse

Highlights of Actions

Increase food production; reducemarketing, distribution, storage,and processing costs

Invest in yield-enhancingresearch and technology; reducepre- and postharvest losses

Natural resources and agricultural inputs

Soils 2 billion hectares degraded in past 50 years, Reversemuch of which can be restored; 5-10 millionhectares lost annually to severe degradation

Forests 15.4 million hectares of forests annually con- Reverseverted to other uses, two-thirds by small-scale,poor farmers seeking food security; such forestconversion likely to continue

Marine fisheries World's fisheries are overexploited; production Reverseis at upper limits and is not likely to be higherin 2020

Water Growing shortages of water across seasons, Reverseregions, and countries; competition for waterbecoming more acute between sectors andcountries

Deteriorating quality and increasing pollution Reverseof water

Fertilizers Global fertilizer use projected to grow annually Enhanceby 1.2 percent between 1990 and 2020compared with 2.8 percent in the 1980s

Pesticides Increased recognition of need to reduce Reversechemical pesticides to protect human andenvironmental health

Prevent soils from becomingdegraded by alleviating poverty,removing distorted resourcepolicies, and securing propertyrights. Restore degraded soilsthrough land husbandry measuresand on-farm investments

Help small-scale farmers obtainalternative ways of meeting foodsecurity; reforestation

Develop mechanisms to preventexploitation beyond sustainablelimits; intensify aquacultureproduction; improve resourcemanagement of natural fisheries

Reform water rights and waterlaws; improve procedures forwater allocation between sectors;improve incentives for appropriate water use; improve technol­ogy for efficient water supply anddelivery; improve internationalcooperation in sharing water

Adopt regulatory and marketmechanisms to discouragepollution; invest in provision ofclean water and sanitation services

Promote balanced and efficientuse of plant nutrients fromboth organic and inorganicsources

Adopt environmentally soundalternatives such as integratedpest management

•

Challenge

Energy

Research andtechnology

Climate change

Current StatuslFuture Trend

Increasing agricultural production likely tocall for increased energy use

Low-income countries underinvesting in agri­cultural research and cutting back on it; declin­ing support to international agricultural research

Fragile areas, where a large share of poorreside, neglected in past research priorities

Public-sector extension services not effective incommunicating between farmers and research

Global warming unlikely to change globalfood production in next 25 years, but couldhave varying regional effects

Change in Status!Trend Required

Subdue

Reverse

Reverse

Reverse

Subdue

Highlights of Actions

Develop additional sources ofenergy, especially renewablesources, and improve efficiencyof energy use

Expand support to nationaland international agriculturalresearch systems

Direct more research tofragile areas

Develop innovative strategiesand techniques to reach farmers;use mass media

As investment in longer-termfuture, change human behaviorthat is contributing to globalwarming

Markets, infrastructure, and international trade

Market reforms

Distribution costs

Infrastructure

Internationaltrade

Growing trend in developing countries, but Enhanceoften there is insufficient competition inprivate sectors; considerable confusion overrole of governments

High in developing countries, especially Africa Subdue

Infrastructure conditions and coverage poor; Reversepast investments have favored urban areas

Increased integration of developing countries Enhanceinto regional trading arrangements and worldmarkets likely to continue

Improve sequencing of marketreforms; strengthen capacityof governments to performneeded functions

Invest in improved transportation,infrastructure, and marketingfacilities

Invest in infrastructureconstruction and maintenance,especially in rural areas

Encourage increased regionalintegration and further globaltrade liberalization

Domestic resource mobilization and international assistance

Domestic savings

Internationalassistance

•

Falling in low-income developing countries;too low to support investments needed toachieve the 2020 Vision

Official development assistance to developingcountries is slowing; assistance to agriculturedeclined in 1980s

Reverse

Reverse

Improve savings and creditmarkets

Increase assistance, especiallyto agriculture and agricultural .research; improve targeting andeffectiveness of aid

Donors to the 2020 Vision InitiativeAgrEVO Gmbh

Australian International Development Assistance Bureau (AIDAB)

Ciba-Geigy

Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)

Centers of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

Centre de cooperation internationale en recherche agronomique pour Ie developpement (CIRAD)

Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Ford Foundation

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, France

Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ)

International Development Research Centre (IDRC)

International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands

Overseas Development Administration (ODA), UK

Rockefeller Foundation

Swedish Agency for Research Cooperation with Developing Countries (SAREC)

Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA)

Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC)

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)

United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)