Internal Doc - SEBOpen Trades Date of Entry Weight in PF Spot at Entry Fwd at Entry Target Stop...
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Transcript of Internal Doc - SEBOpen Trades Date of Entry Weight in PF Spot at Entry Fwd at Entry Target Stop...
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Asia avg Exports YoY % 3mma
80
100
120
140
160
180
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
US debt % of GDP
Private
5
10
15
20
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Asia credit growth % yoy averages
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SEB China construction indicator
Sales by floor space
% yoy 3mma
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan
-13
Mar-
13
May-1
3
Jul-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar-
14
May-1
4
Jul-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar-
15
May-1
5
Jul-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
1st Tier
2nd Tier
3rd Tier
vacancy houses waiting for sale yoy%
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
Jul-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct-
14
Nov-1
4
Dec-1
4
Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5
Mar-
15
Ap
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Jun
-15
Jul-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
CNH/ JPY
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15
1yr ahead 3yr ahead 5yr ahead
Inflation Expectations %
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jap
an
EU
US
Ko
rea
Ma
laysia
Sin
ga
pore
Chin
a
Th
aila
nd
India
Ph
il
Indonesia
debt % of GDP Households
Corporates
Gen govt
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
12 13 14 15 16
Pcomp vs Kospi
1/12011 = 100 Index
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
12 13 14 15 16
MYR/IDR
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Indo
Russia
Mala
ysia
S A
fric
a
Chin
a
Bra
zil
Thaila
nd
Fra
nce
US
India
EU
Sw
eden
Ph
il
Germ
any
Ko
rea
Taiw
an
Jap
an
HK
SG
Mining sector as % of GDP (2014)
7.0
6.1
8.3
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Total
Industrials
Services
% yoy year to date GDP
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SEB China construction indicator
Sales by floor space
% yoy 3mma
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wholesale Pork Prices % yoy
non-food CPI % yoy (RHS)
CPI % yoy (RHS)
6.00
6.05
6.10
6.15
6.20
6.25
6.30
6.35
6.40
6.45
6.50
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
USDCNH spot
USDCNY fixing
USDCNY spot
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Residential Property Index
Centa City Leading Index (RHS)
7.74
7.75
7.76
7.77
7.78
7.79
7.80
7.81
7.82
7.83
7.84
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
USDHKD
USDHKD 3m fwd
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Hibor 3M Libor 3M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
China India
Real GDP % yoy
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CPI
Policy rate %
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Trade Balance
Oil Imports
Dubai Crude Oil price (RHS, inv)
bn USD 3mma
6000
10000
14000
18000
22000
26000
30000
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Net daily foreign equity flow 6mma USD mn (LHS)
Sensex (RHS)
3
4
5
6
7
8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Indonesia Real GDP % y/y
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Loan growth % yoy
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Indonesia BOP % of GDP
Current Acct
FDI
Equity Inv
Debt Inv
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
JC
I
PS
E
SE
NS
EX
Nik
kei
SH
CO
MP
SP
X
KL
CI
SE
T
Ko
spi
TW
SE
ST
I
MS
CIA
XJ
HS
CE
I
Equity valuation PE vs historical 2 stdev range
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Business Conditions
Output prices
Employment Conditions
Diffusion Index
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
ex VAT CPI ex fresh food
Import Price %yoy (RHS)
% yoy BoJ Forecast
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15
1yr ahead 3yr ahead 5yr ahead
Inflation Expectations %
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Total Businesses
% yoy prviate credit growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Real GDP % y/y
Korea 5yr mvavg
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Seoul
2009=100
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Current Account and Capital Flows % of GDP
Equity Inv
Debt Inv
Current Account
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CPI % yoy Policy Rate %
Korea Inflation and Policy Rate
17.3
12.9
7.9
-1.5
-7.2
-11.3 -12.2 -13.3
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ko
rea
Ma
laysia
Th
aila
nd
Chin
a
India
Indonesia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Sin
ga
po
re
Govt debt % GDP ppt change since dec 2008 (RHS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
50
100
150
200
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
MYR bn (LHS)
% of Total (RHS)
Foreign bond holdings of Malaysian government
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Malaysia BOP % of GDP
Current Account Portfolio Inv Other Inv
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Credit growth % yoy CPI % (RHS)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Philippines Real GDP % y/y
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CPI % yoy Policy rate T-Bill 90D%
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Philippines BOP % of GDP
Current Account Portfolio Investment FDI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
11 12 13 14 15
Worker's Remittances YoY%
3mma
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Singapore Real GDP % y/y
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CPI % YoY
MAS Core CPI
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Swap offer rate SOR3month rate %
112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128
Jan
-12
Mar-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jul-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Nov-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar-
14
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar-
15
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
SEB SGD NEER
0.5% annualized pace slope, +/-2% band
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Taiwan avg Exports YoY % 3mma
TIER lead ind yoy 3mma, pushed fwd 6m (RHS)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Credit% yoy 3mma Taipei Property prices
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Policy rate 90 day CP
Overnight rate CPI yoy
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Foreign Net Buying 12M roll sumTWD (RHS, inv)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Thailand Real GDP % y/y
90
95
100
105
110
115
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
NEER REER
THB 2012=100
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Thailand CPI % yoy Policy Rate %
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Current Account
FDI
Portfolio Investment
Thailand BOP % of GDP
Open Trades
Date of
Entry
Weight
in PF
Spot at
Entry
Fwd at
Entry Target Stop
Current
Price
Price at
Exit
Date of
Exit Profit (%)*
Weighted
Profit(%)**
Short TWD vs USD 3M NDF 2-Nov-15 100% 32.48 32.49 34.00 32.00 32.84 1.1 1.1
Closed Trades
Short USDCNH 12M put (strike 6.31) 30-Jun-14 100% 6.21 6.30 2-Mar-15 -0.4 -0.4
Short CNY basket MYR vs USD 3M NDF 2-Mar-15 33% 3.63 3.653 3.72 3.57 3.68 2-Apr-15 0.6 0.2
SGD vs USD 3M FWD 2-Mar-15 33% 1.36 1.370 1.420 1.348 1.36 2-Apr-15 -1.0 -0.3
AUD vs USD 3M FWD 2-Mar-15 33% 0.778 0.774 0.70 0.81 0.77 2-Apr-15 0.3 0.1
Long IDR 1M vs USD 16-Apr-15 33% 13015 13086 12500 13150 13297 11-Jun-15 -1.6 -0.5
Long INR 1M vs USD 16-Apr-15 33% 63.10 63.328 61.5 63.5 63.850 18-Jun-15 -0.8 -0.3
Short PHP vs USD 3M NDF 31-Jul-15 33% 45.67 45.98 48.0 45.0 46.34 7-Oct-15 0.8 0.3
Short THB vs USD 28-Jan-15 33% 32.64 38.0 35.4 35.96 7-Oct-15 10.2 3.4
Long MYR vs USD 1M NDF 7-Oct-15 100% 4.29 4.27 4.05 4.38 4.29 2-Nov-15 -0.5 -0.5
Year to Date Return 3.0
*Profit is calculated as spot at entry to current spot plus carry. We are assuming that carry is earned evenly, every day for simplicity.
** Weighted Profit is the profit of the trade multiplied by the w eight in the portfolio.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2015 -0.4 -0.3 1.6 -1.4 0.3 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.4 -1.1 0.5 0.6 3.0
2014 0.6 0.2 2.3 -0.8 -0.7 -2.7 2.1 0.7 2.5 0.4 -0.3 -1.0 3.2
2013 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 1.3 -0.9 -0.9 0.1 1.6 -0.9 0.4 0.8 2.3 2.8
Performance (%)
FX Spot 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 4Q2017
USD/CNY 6.48 6.40 6.50 6.60 6.70 6.40
USD/CNH 6.54 6.45 6.55 6.65 6.75 6.45
USD/HKD 7.75 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80
USD/IDR 13,618 13,500 14,500 14,900 15,000 14,500
USD/INR 66.2 66.5 68.0 69.0 70.0 66.0
USD/KRW 1165 1150 1200 1220 1,250 1,200
USD/MYR 4.31 4.29 4.45 4.48 4.50 4.10
USD/PHP 47.2 46.5 48.0 48.5 49.0 47.0
USD/SGD 1.41 1.39 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.42
USD/THB 36.1 35.5 37.5 38.0 38.5 36.5
USD/TWD 32.8 32.6 33.5 34.0 34.5 33.0
EUR/USD 1.10 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05
USD/JPY 120 123 127 130 127 135
AUD/USD 0.73 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.70
Policy Rates Current 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 4Q2017
CH lending 4.35 4.10 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85
CH deposit 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
CH RRR 17.50 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 9.00
Japan (QE trn JPY) 80 80 80 100 100 100
Korea 1.50 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75
India 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.25
Indonesia 7.50 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Malaysia 3.25 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75
Philippines 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.25
Thailand 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75
Taiwan 1.63 1.38 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
US 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 2.00
EU 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
AU 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Real GDP % yoy 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China 7.7 7.7 7.4 6.9 6.5 6.3
India 5.4 5.1 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.0
Indonesia 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.9
Japan 1.8 1.6 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.0
Korea 2.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.3
Singapore 2.5 4.4 3.0 1.9 2.2 1.9
Philippines 6.8 7.2 6.1 5.5 5.7 5.3
Malaysia 5.5 4.7 6.0 4.6 4.1 3.9
Taiwan 2.1 2.2 3.7 1.5 2.3 2.6
Thailand 7.3 2.8 0.9 2.7 3.3 3.5
US 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.6
Euro zone -0.7 -0.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.1
CPI % yoy 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.9
India 9.3 10.9 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.6
Indonesia 4.0 6.4 6.4 6.5 5.0 5.3
Japan 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.8 0.5 0.9
Korea 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.2
Singapore 4.6 2.4 1.0 -0.3 0.8 1.0
Philippines 3.2 2.9 4.2 2.0 3.5 2.8
Malaysia 4.5 2.4 3.2 2.1 2.8 2.5
Taiwan 1.9 0.8 1.2 -0.4 0.8 1.0
Thailand 3.0 2.2 1.9 -0.6 1.5 2.0
US 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.4 2.1
Euro zone 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 1.2
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