INTERIM REPORT 1.1. 30.9 › ... › 2016 › q3-2016-osavuosikatsaus-kuvaliit… ·...

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INTERIM REPORT 1.1.30.9.2016 21 October 2016

Transcript of INTERIM REPORT 1.1. 30.9 › ... › 2016 › q3-2016-osavuosikatsaus-kuvaliit… ·...

Page 1: INTERIM REPORT 1.1. 30.9 › ... › 2016 › q3-2016-osavuosikatsaus-kuvaliit… · January−September 2016 • Return on investments 2.3% – Return on equity investments 2.0%

INTERIM REPORT 1.1.−30.9.2016

21 October 2016

Page 2: INTERIM REPORT 1.1. 30.9 › ... › 2016 › q3-2016-osavuosikatsaus-kuvaliit… · January−September 2016 • Return on investments 2.3% – Return on equity investments 2.0%

• Customer acquisition developed as planned in the first part of the year, operating expenses have remained in check

• 13% more pension decisions than a year ago

• New pension processing system taken into use, initially congested with applications but now, as a result of automation, its speed has picked up

• New digital services for well-being at work

2

WHAT’S NEW AT ILMARINEN

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• Markets recover from Brexit scare and investors’ risk appetite returns

• Central banks’ stimulating monetary policy continues

• Interest rate level still historically low, steers investors to seek alternatives

• Situation of European banks cause for concern

• US presidential elections increase uncertainty on the markets

• Recovery of the Finnish economy slightly gaining momentum

3

KEY OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

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January−September 2016

• Return on investments 2.3%

– Return on equity investments 2.0%

– Return on fixed income investments 2.0%

– Return on direct real estate investments 2.8%

• Long-term return at a good level

– Nominal return 5.8%

– Real return 4.1%

• Solvency continued to strengthen in third quarter

– Solvency ratio 27.9%

4

POSITIVE PERFORMANCE ON EQUITY MARKETS STRENGTHENED INVESTMENT RETURN

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VALUE OF INVESTMENTS ROSE, MARKET VALUE EUR 36.5 BILLION

Asset allocation according to risk

5

36.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q3Q2Q12016

Q4Q3Q2Q12015

Q4Q3Q2Q12014

Q4Q3Q2Q12013

Q4Q3Q2Q12012

EU

R b

illio

n

Fixed income incl. effectof derivatives

Other

Real estate

Equities and shares

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INVESTMENT RETURN FOR QUARTER WAS 2.9%

Quarterly investment returns Q1/2015–Q3/2016

6

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LONG-TERM REAL RETURN ON INVESTMENTS REMAINED GOOD

Net investment return at current value

7

5.8

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

%

Ilmarinen's annual average real return(1997-)

Ilmarinen's annual average nominal return

Other

Ilmarinen

2.34.1

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LONG-TERM AVERAGE REAL RETURN WAS 4.1%

Cumulative return on investments 1997–30.9.2016

8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

%Ilmarinen's real return

3.5% cumulative real return

4.0% cumulative real return

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VARYING INVESTMENT RETURNS DEPENDING ON PERIOD

Return on investments in different periods

90

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

% Ilmarinen's nominal return

Ilmarinen's real return

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COMPARISON BETWEEN ILMARINEN’S AND MARKETS’ INVESTMENT RETURNS

Long-term average returns

10

% ILMARINEN

FINNISH

EQUITIES AND

SHARES

EUROPEAN

EQUITIES AND

SHARES

EURO

GOVERNMENT

BONDS

EURO

CORPORATE

BONDS

Q3/2016 2.3 8.8 -3.8 6.4 6.0

2015 6.0 15.9 9.6 1.6 -0.7

Average return over 5 years 6.7 16.8 11.9 6.7 6.1

Average return over 10 years 4.3 6.7 3.0 5.3 4.6

Average return since 1997 5.8 9.9 6.3 5.5 5.1

Real average return over 5 years 5.7 15.7 10.8 5.6 5.0

Real average return over 10 years 2.6 5.0 1.4 3.6 2.9

Real average return since 1997 4.1 8.2 4.6 3.8 3.4

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ILMARINEN’S ASSET ALLOCATION AND RETURN

11

Basic breakdown

EUR mill. %

Risk breakdown

EUR mill. %

Return

% Volatility

Fixed income investments 16,391.7 44.9 14,087.5 38.5 2.0

Loan receivables 1,159.5 3.2 1,159.5 3.2 2.8

Bonds 14,597.1 39.9 6,795.0 18.6 1.8 1.7

Public corporation bonds 4,626.3 12.7 3,210.6 8.8 3.7

Other bonds 9,970.7 27.3 3,584.4 9.8 1.0

Other money market instruments and deposits

(incl. investment receivables and payables)635.1 1.7 6,133.0 16.8 4.8

Equities and shares 14,288.3 39.1 13,815.6 37.8 2.0

Listed equities and shares 11,124.1 30.4 10,651.4 29.1 -0.2 15.4

Private equity investments 2,201.4 6.0 2,201.4 6.0 9.8

Non-listed equities and shares 962.8 2.6 962.8 2.6 11.4

Real estate investments 4,103.3 11.2 4,103.3 11.2 2.8

Real estate investments 3,619.6 9.9 3,619.6 9.9 2.8

Real estate funds and joint investments 483.7 1.3 483.7 1.3 3.0

Other 1,762.9 4.8 4,664.3 12.8 5.8

Hedge fund investments 815.7 2.2 815.7 2.2 -0.4 8.3

Commodity investments -19.5 -0.1 -149.1 -0.4 -

Other investments 966.7 2.6 3,997.7 10.9 11.2

Investments total 36,546.2 100.0 36,670.6 100.3 2.3 5.3

Effect of derivatives -124.4 -0.3

Investments at current value 36,546.2 36,546.2 100.0

The modified duration of bond investments is 0.1 years

The total return percentage includes income, expenses and operating expenses not allocated to any investment types

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THE WEIGHT OF EQUITY INVESTMENTS ROSE DURING THE QUARTER

Asset allocation development

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q3Q2Q12016

Q4Q3Q2Q12015

Q4Q3Q2Q12014

Q4Q3Q2Q12013

Q4Q3Q2Q12012

Fixed income incl. effect ofderivatives

Other

Real estate

Equities and shares

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PROPORTION OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES AND SHARES FELL

Geographical breakdown of equity investments

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Finland Europe USA Japan China Emerging marketsexcl. China

%

2012

2013

2014

2015

Q3/2016

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FINNISH EQUITY HOLDINGS EUR 3.0 BILLION

Most significant Finnish equity holdings

14

EUR mill.

30 Sep

2016

31 Dec

2015 Percentage

30 Sep

2016

31 Dec

2015

Kone Corporation 203 188 QT Group Plc 14.62

Neste Corporation 192 181 Digia Plc 14.58 14.58

Nokia Corporation 179 184 PKC Group Plc 12.15 12.16

Citycon Plc 144 152 Basware Corporation 11.18 10.76

Stora Enso 138 143 Technopolis Plc 10.48 10.41

UMP-Kymmene

Corporation 137 123 Componenta Plc 8.80 7.15

Sampo Plc 137 218 CapMan Plc 8.32 8.32

Fortum Corporation 134 143 Martela Corporation 8.07 8.07

Wärtsilä Corporation 96 168 Munksjö Plc 8.03 8.03

Nokian Tyres Plc 90 105 Incap Corporation 7.61 7.61

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SOLVENCY REMAINED STRONG

Solvency development

15The solvency ratio was 2.0 times the solvency limit.

Page 16: INTERIM REPORT 1.1. 30.9 › ... › 2016 › q3-2016-osavuosikatsaus-kuvaliit… · January−September 2016 • Return on investments 2.3% – Return on equity investments 2.0%