Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey
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GFC v2.0 Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
description
Dynamics Day '11 - Guest speaker Bernard Hickey speaks about the Global Financial Crisis v2.0
Transcript of Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey
GFC v2.0
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
• Market meltdown • Déjà vu all over again • The new normal • Three scenarios • Lower for longer
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
• Some big pictures • Deleveraging Inc • Great Repression • Hollowed out NZ • Ageing & nesting • Los Indignados • A stateless cloud
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
But first a joke:
Why did God create economists.
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
To make weather forecasters look
good
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Market meltdown/up
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
The rate of fear
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Turning Japanese
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Deja vu all over again
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
The new normal?
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Three scenarios:
1. Goldilocks 2. The Big Bad
Wolf 3. Sleeping beauty
(ugly) Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10,
2011
The Goldilocks
scenario: not to hot
and not too cold
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
•Extend and pretend works • Just enough inflation to relieve debt burden • Political stability • Energy stability
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
•Strong Chinese and Indian growth for 10-20 years • High commodity prices, low inflation • Orderly markets • Low rates
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
A great wall of demand for protein and holidays in our time zone and hemisphere
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
A world of protein
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Rising up the curve
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Rising up the curve
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Rising up the curve
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Rising up the curve
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Rising up the curve
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
The Big Bad
Wolf and the four little PIGS
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
•Developed world chokes on too much dumb debt • Extend and pretend fails •10-20 years of very slow growth
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
•China slows down to contain inflation • Lower commodity prices, lower NZ$ • Slow to no growth • Markets volatile • Low rates
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
A world of debt
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
A world of debt
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Structural imbalance
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
China’s savings rate
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
The
interconnected nature of the
Big Bad Debt
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
PIGS in a blanket
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
It’s the household debt
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
It’s the house prices
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
It’s the net foreign debt
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Not so comfortable
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
It’s the bloody peak oil
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
China’s ghost cities
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Helicopter Ben
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Sleeping Beauty
or should that be Sleeping Ugly
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
The new normal?
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
How NZ’s income, assets and people
are being hollowed out
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
The foreign drain
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
The real problem
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
They just left
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
40% support 60%
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
”By 2020 the number of new labour force
entrants will be surpassed by the numbers retiring”
Natalie Jackson Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10,
2011
Ageing and nesting
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Hollowed out NZ
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Young and angry
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
Los Indignados
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
A stateless cloud
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
A family snapshot
Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
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