Interest Rate Monitor April 28 th 2009. 2 Internationally.

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Interest Rate Monitor April 28 th 2009

Transcript of Interest Rate Monitor April 28 th 2009. 2 Internationally.

Interest Rate Monitor

April 28th 2009

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Internationally

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Recap of the Week:Socks End With a Gain

Stocks: Stocks rallied Friday after Ford, Microsoft and American Express reported results that met or topped analysts' expectations.The NASDAQ ended higher for its 7th week in a row, while the Dow and S&P 500 ended the week slightly lower after six straight weeks of gains.The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 119 points, or 1.5% during the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 14 points, or 1.7%. The NASDAQ composite (COMP) gained 42 points, or 2.6%.

Stocks rallied on the last day of a turbulent week on Wall Street where investors showed some caution.Bets that the worst is over for the economy and corporate America lifted stocks. The S&P 500 climbed by more than 29% over the six weeks prior to Monday, following a rout that left the index at 12-year lows.

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Recap of the Week:Other Markets

Currencies: The euro rose against the dollar Friday for a fourth straight session as improved business sentiment in Germany added to hopes that the euro-zone economy may already have seen the worst of the recession.Dollar demand also faded as a stock rally lifted investor risk appetite, though analysts said worries that U.S. automaker Chrysler may be nearing bankruptcy also hit the greenback.The dollar tends to rise with investor anxiety because it is considered the safest store of value when economies worldwide are contracting. It usually falls when risk appetite grows.

The euro rose 0.8% to $1.3245 after earlier rising above $1.33 for the first time in nearly two weeks. It hit a two-week peak against sterling near 91 pence after data showed the U.K. economy registered its sharpest contraction in 30 years during the first three months of 2009.Sterling fell 0.4% to $1.4663.

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Recap of the Week:Other Markets

Crude Oil: Oil prices surged to a two-week high Friday, helped in large part by a weaker dollar and a rally on Wall Street.Crude for June delivery settled up $1.93, or 3.9%, to $51.55 a barrel.Oil has not settled above $51 a barrel since April 9, when it settled at $52.24 a barrel.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell Friday as Wall Street rallied, with the Dow Jones industrial average posting triple-digit gains.The benchmark 10-year note was down 19/32 to 97 31/32, and its yield rose to 2.99% from 2.92% late Thursday. The 30-year bond fell 1 15/32 to trade at 93 11/32, and its yield rose to 3.88% from 3.79%.The 2-year note was down less 2/32 to 99 27/32, and its yield edged up to 0.97% from 0.94%.

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Next Week:Economic Calendar 20-24 April 09Date GMT Ccy Event Cons. Prev.

27 April 14:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (APR) -- -49.0%

28 April 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (APR) 29 26

29 April 08:00 EUR Bloomberg Euro-Zone Retail Purchasing Manager Index (APR)

-- 44.1

29 April 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (MAR) 5.9% 6.5%

29 April 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (APR) 65.7 64.6

29 April 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (APR) -3.53 -3.58

29 April 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q A) -4.7% -6.3%

29 April 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (1Q) 0.8% -4.3%

29 April 18:15 USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

30 April 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (APR)

0.7% 0.6%

30 April 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR) 8.7% 8.5%

30 April 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (MAR)

0.1% 0.2%

30 April 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 25) -- 640K

1 May 04:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (APR) 9.6M 9.9M

1 May 14:00 USD Factory Orders (MAR) -0.7% 1.8%

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Fed Fund 30 Day Product

Product Rates 20/4 Rates 27/4

FFJ9 Apr 09 0.1575% 0.155%

FFK9 May 09 0.18% 0.19%

FFM9 June 09 0.195% 0.2%

FFN9 July 09 0.22% 0.22%

FFQ9 Aug 09 0.255% 0.25%

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US Treasury Yield Curve

TenureYield

13/4/09Yield

20/4/09Yield

27/4/09

1 M 0.1369 0.0507 0.0811

3 M 0.1826 0.1420 0.1217

6 M 0.3911 0.3555 0.3148

2Y 0.9435 0.9481 0.9159

5Y 1.8742 1.8595 1.8817

10Y 2.9041 2.9061 2.9343

30Y 3.7256 3.7536 3.8395

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LIBOR Rates

TenureUSD

9/4/2009USD

17/4/2009USD

27/4/2009

O/N 0.26125 0.235 0.205

1-wk 0.36875 0.3475 0.32125

1-mth 0.45125 0.4475 0.435

3-mth 1.13125 1.10188 1. 0725

6-mth 1.67625 1.63625 1.62125

12-mth 1.95125 1.915 1.93063

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Locally

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Public Debt Rises By 4% to JD8.58 Billion

• The public debt registered for the first quarter of 2009 was 4% higher than the record of the same period of 2008, amounting to JD8.58 billion.

• According to the Ministry of Finance monthly bulletin, the amount represented 56% of the estimated GDP compared to 60.2% of the 2008 GDP.

• Out of the total public debt, the domestic debt was JD5.05 billion whereas the external debt accounted for the remaining JD3.53 million.

• The rise in the public debt resulted mainly from the increase in domestic debt which reached JD5.05 billion at the end of March this year up from JD4.91 billion at the end of 2008, the bulletin indicated.

• However, the domestic debt constitutes 33% of the envisaged GDP for 2009 compared to 34.6% of the 2008 GDP.

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Majority of Jordanian Professionals Worried About Job Security

Around 58% of Jordanian professionals and 65% of those in the region are

worried about job security, according to a recent survey.

The survey, titled “The Job Situation in the Recession”, was conducted by

bayt.com in conjunction with research specialists YouGov to understand

how the current recession is affecting people professionally and

financially.

Jordan recorded high levels of reassurance, while the UAE’s respondents

were the most concerned, with 59% citing worries about the future of their

workplace, according to the study, which also indicated that amongst the

43% that witnessed job cuts in their companies, more than 21% said that

over 100 people had lost their jobs, while 39% said that fewer than 20

people were asked to leave.

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Interest Rate WatchExcess Liquidity

• As of April 27th 2009, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ JD(2,843.6) million.

Latest 3 yr Tbond

Issue Date Maturity Date

Size of the Issue

Unified Coupon

T309 22/1/2009 22/1/2012 JD 50 mio 6.588%

T409 29/1/2009 29/1/2012 JD 50 mio 6.361%

T609 26/3/2009 26/3/2012 JD 70 mio 5.270%

T709 2/4/2009 2/4/2012 JD 50 mio 5.293%

Latest 5 Years Tbonds

T809 8/4/2009 9/4/2014 JD 50 mio 6.013%

T909 16/4/2009 16/4/2012 JD 50 mio 5.2%

T1009 23/4/2009 23/4/2012 JD 50 mio 4.697%

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Interest Rate WatchCorporate CDs

3M 6M 12M 15M

USD 2.25% 2.75% 3.50% N.A.

Capital Bank

3M 6M 12M 18M 24M

JOD 4.25% 4.35% 4.75% 4.9% 5.1%

USD 0.9% 1.25% 1.65% 1.7% 1.75%

Bank Of Jordan

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Prime Lending Rates

Bank Rate Bank Rate

ARBK 8.25% THBK 8.50%

AJIB 7.75% HSBC 8.50%

BOJK 8.75% JIFB 8.50%

JOCB 8.75% JOKB 8.80%

CABK 8.75% JONB 8.50%

EFBK 8.50% Arab Land 8.50%

Audi 8.50% Union Bank 9.00%

NBK 8.25% BLOM 8.50%

Arab Bank has cut its prime lending rate from 8.50% to 8.25%

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Prime Lending Rates

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Chart of the Week

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UK Budget Deficit

As the impact of the recession deepens on the UK economy, the British budget deficit widens to finance the bailout of the economy and the net government borrowing (as shown in the above graph) is expected to reach record highs in order to finance the simulative plan to shore up the economy

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Disclaimer

• THIS REPORT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL OR HOLD ANY SECURITY.

• CAIRO AMMAN BANK HAS PREPARED THIS REPORT FROM SOURCES THOUGHT TO BE RELIABLE, THEREFORE; CAIRO AMMAN BANK DOES NOT HOLD ANY RESPONSIBILITY TO THE INFORMATION ENCLOSED HEREIN NOR TO THE DECISIONS BASED UPON.