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InterdisciplinarySovereignDebtResearchandManagementConference

October5-6,2017TheGraduateInstituteofInternationalandDevelopmentStudies

Geneva,SwitzerlandSovereigndebtisatthecentreofthepolicydebateinbothadvancedandemergingeconomies,andacademicresearchinsovereigndebthasflourishedinrecentyears.However,knowledgeisoftenbuiltanddisseminatedwithindisciplinaryacademicsilos.Scholarsinanthropology,economics,finance,history,law,politicalscience,andsociologyapproachthesameurgentpolicyproblemswithdifferentquestionsandmethods.Law,market,and policy practitioners have yet more different perspectives on sovereign debt. This interdisciplinaryconference joins the conversation across disciplinary and institutional lines. Bringing all these perspectivestogether isnoteasybuttheeffort isworthwhilebecausemorerelevant, institutionally-groundedscholarshipwill leadtopoliciesinformedbycutting-edgeresearch,andultimately-wemusthope-fewercrisesandlesshumansuffering.ORGANISATIONThe two-day conferencewill take place at theGraduate Institute, Geneva, onOctober 5-6, 2017. ThemainorganisersaretheGraduateInstitute’sCentreforFinanceandDevelopmentincooperationwiththeUniversityofGeneva’sDepartmentofHistory,EconomicsandSociety,andtheInstituteofInternationalEconomicLawofGeorgetownUniversityLawCenter.The members of the Organising Committee are Marc Flandreau (University of Pennsylvania), Juan Flores(University of Geneva), Anna Gelpern (Georgetown Law), Mitu Gulati (Duke Law), Grégoire Mallard (TheGraduate Institute, Geneva), Ugo Panizza (The Graduate Institute, Geneva), Joost Pauwelyn (The GraduateInstitute,Geneva).SPONSOR

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THURSDAYOCTOBER5,2017-TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202Geneva)

8:15-8:40 REGISTRATION-TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix–AtriumP2(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202GE)

8:40-10:10

PARALLELSESSIONS11A-SOVEREIGNDEBTRESTRUCTURINGI

Chair:YuefenLi(TheSouthCentre)• TheMacroeconomicEffectsofOfficialDebtRestructuring:EvidencefromtheParisClub

AitorErce(EuropeanStabilityMechanism)• SovereignDebtRestructuringinConditionsofExtremeUncertainty:SeveralLessonsfromHistory

MarkStumpf(Arnold&PorterKayeScholerLLP)• FromBrokertoJudge:TheEvolutionofSovereignDebtRestructuring,1980-2015

JérômeSgard(SciencePo)• TheTransformationofSovereignDebtDisputes:AnEmpiricalAnalysisofJudicialReasoningin

SovereignDebtLitigationMatthiasGoldmann(GoetheUniversityFrankfurt)andGrygoriyPustovit(GoetheUniversityFrankfurt)

1B-DEBTANDHUMANRIGHTSChair:StephanieBlankenburg(UNCTAD)TBC• DebateAboutHumanRightsandSovereignDebt

RosaMaríaLastra(QueenMaryUniversityofLondon)• SouthoftheBorder,WestoftheSun:Banks,Debt,andDictatorshipsinLatinAmericaduring1970s

CarloEdoardoAltamura(UniversityofGeneva)• DoStatesHaveaRighttoCredit?

MarcoMeyer(UniversityofGroningen)• ResponsibleLendingtoResponsibleSovereigns

BarryHerman(TheNewSchoolforPublicEngagement)• TheIntersectionofSovereignDebtandHumanRights

IliasBantekas(BrunelUniversityLondon)1C-MEASURINGDEBTVULNERABILITIES

Chair:MaryO’Sullivan(UniversityofGeneva)• RatingPrestige:SymbolicCapitalinEvaluationsofSovereignCreditworthiness

GozdeGuran(PrincetonUniversity)• RoleofCreditRatingAgenciesinSovereignDebtMarkets

AlineDarbellay(UniversityofGeneva)• DoesPublicDebtCrowdOutPrivateInvestment?EvidencefromFirmLevelData

Yi Huang (The Graduate Institute, Geneva), Ugo Panizza (The Graduate Institute, Geneva), andRichardVarghese(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)

• GovernmentForeignIndebtednessandSovereignDebtCrises:CaseStudiesofItalyandJapanLarryLiu(PrincetonUniversity)

• FromtheEssenceofSovereigntytoSovereigntyasan“Effect”:DebtDevicesinDifferentHistoricalandPoliticalContextsBenjaminLemoine(UniversitéParis-Dauphine)

10:10-10:25

Break(withcoffee/tea)

10:25-10:45

WELCOME

• UgoPanizza(PictetChairinFinanceandDevelopment;Director,CentreforFinanceandDevelopment,TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)

• AnnaGelpern(Professor,GeorgetownLawandNon-ResidentSeniorFellow,PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics)

10:45-12:15

ROUNDTABLE1:WHITHEREUROPE?

Moderator:ThorstenBeck(CassBusinessSchool,UniversityofLondon)

• MichelAglietta(CEPII)TBC• MariaCannata(ItalianMinistryofEconomy&Finance)• FrankGill(Standard&Poor’s)• YannisManuelides(Allen&Overy)• ChiaraZilioli(EuropeanCentralBank)

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12:15-14:00 LunchwithKeynote:MiguelMaduro(EuropeanUniversityInstitute)TBC(Byinvitation)

14:00-15:30

ROUNDTABLE2:BAIL-OUTANDBAIL-INSINSOVEREIGNDEBTCRISES:WHATISTHEROLEOFTHEOFFICIALSECTOR?

Moderator:CarloMonticelli(CouncilofEuropeDevelopmentBank)

• EmiliosAvgouleas(UniversityofEdinburgh)• ElenaDuggar(Moody’s)• RolfStrauch(EuropeanStabilityMechanism)• JerominZettelmeyer(PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics)

15:45-17:15

PARALLELSESSIONS22A-CRISESANDINDEXATION

Chair:RichardKozul-Wright(UNCTAD)TBC• ResponsibilityandReform:PublicFramingofSovereignDebtCrises

JeremyCohen(PrincetonUniversity)• SovereignContingentDebt

AndreaConsiglio(UniversityofPalermo)andStavrosZenios(Wharton)• LondonTermSheet:DevelopmentofaMarketforGDP-LinkedBonds

ChristianKopf(UnionInvestment)• TheHighlyIndebtedPoorCountryInitiativeinContext:Origins,Operations&Outcomes

TimonForster(UniversityofOxford)andAlexanderKentikelenis(UniversityofOxford)2B-COMPLEXITY,GOVERNANCEANDTRANSPARENCY

Chair:JoostPauwelyn(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)• TheTransparencyAdvantage?GovernmentChoicesoverBorrowingStrategies

LaynaMosley(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill)andPeterRosendorff(NYU)• CreditorCommitteesandtheQuestforSovereignDebtGovernance

StephenPark(UniversityofConnecticut)andTimSamples(UniversityofGeorgia)• AdjudicatingReputationinSovereignDebt

SadieBlanchard(YaleUniversity)• ComplexSystemicRiskandFinance

MiguelCenteno(PrincetonUniversity)• TechnologyandtheManagementofSovereignDebt

RossBuckley(UNSWSydney)2C-DEBTFORGIVENESSANDCIVILSOCIETY

Chair:JuanFloresZendejas(UniversityofGeneva)• ResponsibilityforUnsustainableSovereignDebtBurdensintheContextofStructuralInjustice

AnahíWiedenbrug(LondonSchoolofEconomics&PoliticalScience)• DemystifyingAlexanderNahumSackandtheDoctrineofOdiousDebt

EricToussaint(CADTMinternational–CommitteefortheAbolitionofIllegitimateDebt)• FromIdeastoActions.CivilSocietyStrategiesforChange

BodoEllmers(Eurodad–EuropeanNetworkonDebtandDevelopment)• TheLimitsofLawintheGlobalMobilisationforDebtForgiveness:FatalAmbiguitiesintheNew

InternationalEconomicOrderGrégoireMallard(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)

19:30 DinnerwithKeynote:TBC(Byinvitation)

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FRIDAYOCTOBER6,2017-TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202Geneva)

8:00-8:30 HELPDESK–TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix-AtriumP2(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202Geneva)8:30-10:00

PARALLELSESSIONS33A-HISTORICALPERSPECTIVESONTHELAWANDECONOMICSOFBONDPRICESANDSOVEREIGNDEBTREPAYMENT

Chair:MarcFlandreau(UniversityofPennsylvania)• TheWarThatBondMarketsDidn’tPerceiveasSuch (ThePricesof SouthAfricanBondsDuring the

SecondAnglo-BoerWar:AnExtremeCaseofResilience)KimOosterlinckandMarieVanGansbeke(UniversitélibredeBruxelles)TBC

• ContractswithoutCourts:AnEmpiricalInvestigationoftheValueofContractualProtectioninanEraofAbsoluteSovereignImmunityBenChabot(FederalReserveofChicago)andVeronicaSantarosa

• TheExport-ImportBankanditsEffectsonDefaultManagementinthe1930sand1940sJuanFloresZendejas(UniversityofGeneva)andNorbertGaillard

• TheDawesBonds:SelectiveDefaultandInternationalTradeOlivierAccominotti(LondonSchoolofEconomics)TBC

3B-SOVEREIGNDEBTRESTRUCTURINGIIChair:GrégoireMallard(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)• AEurozoneSDRM:TheChallengeofDesigningaSchemethatIsCompatiblewiththeTFEU

ChristianHofmann(NationalUniversityofSingapore)andChristophPaulus• LessonsfromMexicoandArgentina

JacquesdeLarosière(BNPParibas)• ChallengingSovereignDebtRestructurings

HaykKupelyants(UniversityofCambridge)• RegulationofSovereignInsolvencyintheEuroArea

JochenAndritzky(GermanCouncilofEconomicExperts)• RestructuringVenezuelanDebt

MarkWalker(Millstein&Co)3C-CRISESANDCONTRACTS

Chair:TBC• GoForeignorStayLocal:ASovereign’sCostofCapital

IrvingdeLiraSalvatierra(MinistryofFinance,Mexico),MituGulati(DukeLawSchool),ElisabethdeFontenay(DukeLawSchool),andMichaelBradley(DukeLawSchool)

• SovereignDebtCrises:WhatHaveweLearned?JuanPabloBohoslavskyandKunibertRaffer(UniversityofVienna)

• SovereignBondsbyLaw:CanaStateDebtbeNon-Contractual?MathiasAudit(UniversitéParis1)

• Iceland’sCapitalControlsandtheResolutionofitsProblematicBankLegacyFriðrikMárBaldursson(ReykjavikUniversity)

• PegxitPressureKrisJamesMitchener(SantaClaraUniversity,LeaveySchoolofBusiness)andGonçaloPina

10:00-10:30 Break(withcoffee/tea)

10:30-12:00

ROUNDTABLE3:BANKLOANS,LOWINCOMECOUNTRIES,ANDISLANDECONOMIES

Moderator:AnnaGelpern(GeorgetownLaw)

• RezaBaqir(IMF)• AndrewPowell(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank)• CatherineSchenk(OxfordUniversity)• DeborahZandstra(CliffordChance)

12:00-13:15

Lunch(standupinMaisondelaPaix,AtriumP1)(Byinvitation)

13:15-13:45

ROUNDTABLE4:TBA

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14:00-15:30

PARALLELSESSIONS44A-SOVEREIGNDEBTCONTRACTS

Chair:TBC• WhyAreSovereignDebtContractssoSticky?

AnnaGelpern(GeorgetownLaw),MituGulati(DukeLawSchool),andJerominZettelmeyer(PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics)

• The'abc'ofCreditorProtectioninSovereignDebtInstrumentsRodrigoOlivares-Caminal(QueenMaryUniversityofLondon)

• Anti-VultureLawLeentjeSourbron(HasseltUniversity)andLodeVereeck(HasseltUniversity)

• TheSeniorityStructureofSovereignDebtMatthiasSchlegl,ChristophTrebesch(KielInstitutefortheWorldEconomy),andMarkL.Wright(FederalReserveBankMinneapolis)

4B-THEAFTERMATHOFGREECEChair:TBC• Restructuring Government Debt under Local Law: The Greek Case and Implications for Investor

ProtectioninEuropeSebastianGrund(EuropeanCentralBank)

• PIIGSPierrePénet(UniversityofGeneva)

• BeyondtheSovereignDebtCrisis:ConstitutionalChangeinGreeceaftertheMemorandaAnnaTsiftsoglou(LondonSchoolofEconomics)

• DoesGreeceNeedMoreOfficialDebtRelief?IfSo,HowMuch?UgoPanizza(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva),EikeKreplin(GermanFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandEnergy),andJerominZettelmeyer(PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics).

15:30-15:45

Break(withcoffee/tea)

15:45-17:15

PARALLELSESSIONS55A-SOVEREIGNDEBTRESTRUCTURINGIIISponsoredbytheCentreforInternationalGovernanceInnovation-CIGI

Chair:DomenicoLombardi(CIGI)• AssessingtheAppropriateSizeofReliefinSovereignDebtRestructuring

MartinGuzman(ColumbiaUniversity)andDomenicoLombardi(CIGI)TBC• GDP-IndexedBonds:AWayForward

GregoryMakoff(CIGI)• ModelLawtoImproveSovereignDebtRestructuringProcesses

Author(CIGI)TBC• InformalCreditorsandEfficientDebtWorkouts

SayantanGhosal(UniversityofGlasgow)withDaniaThomas(UniversityofGlasgow)

5B-DEFAULTS,HAIRCUTSANDFORGIVENESSChair:TBC• IsolatingtheRealEffectsof"Sovereign"DefaultRisk:EvidencefromPuertoRico

AnushaChari(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill),RyanLeary,andToanPhan• SovereignBondPrices,HaircutsandMaturity

TamonAsonuma(IMF),DirkNiepelt(StudyCenterGerzensee),andRomainRanciere• 200YearsofSovereignHaircutsandBondReturns

JosefinMeyer(KielInstitutefortheWorldEconomy),CarmenReinhart,andChristophTrebesch(KielInstitutefortheWorldEconomy)

• TheReluctantDefaulter:ATaleofHighGovernmentDebtFabrice Collard (University of Bern),Michel Habib (University of Zurich), and Jean-Charles Rochet(UniversityofGenevaandUniversityofZurich)

17:20-19:45

CLOSINGROUNDTABLE:SOVEREIGNDEBTANDTHEECONOMY:WHATHAPPENSNEXT?

Welcome:PhilippeBurrin(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)

Moderator:SoumayaKeynes(TheEconomist)

• JacquesdeLarosière(BNPParibas)• RandallKroszner(UniversityofChicago)• NourielRoubini(NewYorkUniversity)• HyunShin(BankforInternationalSettlements)• CharlesWyplosz(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)