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1 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003

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Gunther Schwarz,Gunther Schwarz,EADS Dornier, BDOREADS Dornier, BDOR

GermanyGermany

PAXPAXAgent-Based Modeling of Peace Support OperationsAgent-Based Modeling of Peace Support Operations


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OutlineOutline

Peace Support Operations / Project DavidPeace Support Operations / Project David

PSO-Distillation: Prototype PAXPSO-Distillation: Prototype PAX

– GoalsGoals

– Scenario Scenario

– ConceptsConcepts

– Model descriptionModel description

– User interfaceUser interface

Analysis with PAXAnalysis with PAX

Further WorkFurther Work

PAXPAX


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Traditional Combat:Traditional Combat:

– comparison of comparison of

combat losses combat losses

between own and between own and

opposing forcesopposing forces

Traditional Analysis Combat vs. Analysis Traditional Analysis Combat vs. Analysis of Peace Supportof Peace Support

Peace Support:Peace Support:

– avoid escalationavoid escalation

and minimization of and minimization of

losses (usually on losses (usually on allall

sides)sides)


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Problem: Peace Support Operations can't be Problem: Peace Support Operations can't be

modeled with existing combat oriented modeled with existing combat oriented

simulation systems simulation systems

Agent-Based Approach seems to be an Agent-Based Approach seems to be an

appropriate alternativeappropriate alternative

Modeling of Peace Support OperationsModeling of Peace Support Operations


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Project DavidProject David

Part of Project AlbertPart of Project Albert

Focus: Modeling of Peace Support Focus: Modeling of Peace Support OperationsOperations

Born at Maui in June 2000 Born at Maui in June 2000 (2nd Project Albert International (2nd Project Albert International Workshop)Workshop)


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Headquarter

Contingency Units

Mission SpectrumPSO

CrowdControl

Patrol

Convoy

ConfrontationPolice

OperationsCombat

AdminSupport

Disarming

FoodSupply

WaterSupply

FoodStorage

CrowdManagement

CheckPoint

Area/BuildingScreening

Separation

MedicalSupport

Protection

ConvoyConvoy

ProtectionProtection

Food Food DistributionDistribution

PSO: Project David ScenariosPSO: Project David Scenarios


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Food Distribution (MANA): First TryFood Distribution (MANA): First Try

Experiments during Project Albert International Experiments during Project Albert International Workshop 4 in Cairns (AUS) using the Distillation tool Workshop 4 in Cairns (AUS) using the Distillation tool MANA (0.97)MANA (0.97)

15

60

15

2020 20

5

2020 20

5 5


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Food Distribution (MANA): ResultsFood Distribution (MANA): Results

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

3015

60

15

2020 20

5

2020 20

5 5

Red

Lo

sses

Blu

e L

oss

es

ShortShort LongLongExposureExposure



Blue does much better with smaller food distribution points and lower time of exposure


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Food Distribution (MANA): ObservationFood Distribution (MANA): Observation

Results ok and Plausible, but showed:Results ok and Plausible, but showed:

– Only Only worst caseworst case - the real conflict situation - - the real conflict situation - could be modeled sufficiently wellcould be modeled sufficiently well

• Not the Not the process of escalationprocess of escalation, but mainly the , but mainly the already already escalated situationescalated situation could be modeled! could be modeled!

• No way to model de-escalationNo way to model de-escalation

– ““CiviliansCivilians” did ” did not reallynot really exist: The only exist: The only possibility was to model them as possibility was to model them as opponentsopponents

– The The Food Distribution ProcessFood Distribution Process could not be could not be modeled at allmodeled at all


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Existing agent-based models: powerful, but main Existing agent-based models: powerful, but main

focus on combat modelingfocus on combat modeling

– Strong emphasis on Strong emphasis on MovementMovement

– Only form of interaction: Only form of interaction: FightingFighting

– NoNo reasonable modeling of reasonable modeling of CiviliansCivilians

Demand for a model, that is truly designed Demand for a model, that is truly designed

for PSOfor PSO

Adapt the models to our questions and not the

questions to our models!

Modeling of Peace Support OperationsModeling of Peace Support Operations


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OutlineOutline

Peace Support Operations / Project DavidPeace Support Operations / Project David

PSO-Distillation: Prototype PAXPSO-Distillation: Prototype PAX

– GoalsGoals

– Scenario Scenario

– ConceptsConcepts

– Model descriptionModel description

– User interfaceUser interface

Analysis with PAXAnalysis with PAX

Further WorkFurther Work


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EADS Dornier ProjectEADS Dornier Project Context: Project AlbertContext: Project Albert

initiated by German Army Office initiated by German Army Office and assisted by German Center for and assisted by German Center for Analyses and StudiesAnalyses and Studies

Peace Support Operation „Peace Support Operation „Food Food Distribution by ConvoyDistribution by Convoy““

Special Interest: Special Interest: Peace KeepingPeace Keeping Aspect Aspect

Prototype PAXPrototype PAX

PaxPax(Roman Goddess of Peace)(Roman Goddess of Peace)

HA I 1 (4)HA I 1 (4)


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Goals of PAXGoals of PAX

Aim at the "heart" of Peace Support Aim at the "heart" of Peace Support OperationsOperations

– Modeling of Modeling of CiviliansCivilians

• Internal states and processesInternal states and processes that determine behavior: that determine behavior:

Motives, Emotions, Readiness for Aggression, ...Motives, Emotions, Readiness for Aggression, ...

• Group and Mass EffectsGroup and Mass Effects

– SoldiersSoldiers

• Not only concentrating on "combat abilities"Not only concentrating on "combat abilities"

Address "new" questions, e. g.:Address "new" questions, e. g.:

– How can an How can an escalationescalation be avoided or reduced be avoided or reduced

((deescalationdeescalation) under certain circumstances?) under certain circumstances?

– At which point could a stop of the operation be the At which point could a stop of the operation be the

best option?best option?

– What kind of behavior and abilities help to avoid a What kind of behavior and abilities help to avoid a

dangerous situation?dangerous situation?

NonlinearNonlinear

EffectsEffects

IntangiblesIntangibles


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Scenario / Mission: Scenario / Mission: Food Distribution by ConvoyFood Distribution by Convoy

Situation:Situation:

– Convoy (1 truck with food Convoy (1 truck with food packets; 1 truck with packets; 1 truck with infantry soldiers) has infantry soldiers) has arrived in a Villagearrived in a Village

– Infantry Soldiers have Infantry Soldiers have dismounted their vehicle dismounted their vehicle and form 2 small groups. and form 2 small groups. Their Target is:Their Target is:

• To Protect the distribution To Protect the distribution processprocess

• To Avoid violence and To Avoid violence and escalationescalation


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Mission: Food Distribution by ConvoyMission: Food Distribution by Convoy

Main Goal: To achieve a Main Goal: To achieve a non-non-

violent, fast and equitable violent, fast and equitable

distributiondistribution

Exemplary Investigation of the Exemplary Investigation of the

factors:factors:

– Behavior of military Behavior of military

personnelpersonnel

– Behavior of CiviliansBehavior of Civilians

• personality traitspersonality traits

• group influencegroup influence


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Standardized Modeling of Military Multi-Agent-Standardized Modeling of Military Multi-Agent-SystemsSystems

Based onBased on PECS PECS ( (PPhysis - hysis - EEmotion - motion - CCognition - ognition - SSocial ocial Characteristics), C. Urban, University of Passau, GermanyCharacteristics), C. Urban, University of Passau, Germany

Agent

Agent Agent

Agent

Environment

Connector

PAX - Modeling Concepts:PAX - Modeling Concepts:Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)

SensorPerception

MPECS-Agent

SocialCharacteristics Emotion

Physis

Cognition

ActorBehaviour

Z Z

FF FF

Z

Z

Equip-ment

Z F


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Agent

Agent Agent

Agent

Environment

Connector

PAX - Modeling Concepts:PAX - Modeling Concepts:Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)


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SensorPerception

MPECS-Agent

SocialCharacteristics Emotion

Physis

Cognition

ActorBehaviour

Z Z

FF FF

Z

Z

Equip-ment

Z F

MPECS - AgentMPECS - Agent

Z_1

FF

Z_1

New Behavior Action


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EnvironmentEnvironment

AgentsAgents

InteractionInteraction

PAX: Model ElementsPAX: Model Elements


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real urban areareal urban area abstract terrain model abstract terrain model

regular

built-up

PAX: EnvironmentPAX: Environment

AbstractionAbstraction


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Environment: Area TypesEnvironment: Area Types

Region of InfluenceRegion of Influence

– Group influenceGroup influence

– InteractionsInteractions

built-up areasbuilt-up areas

– "safe place" for civilians"safe place" for civilians


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PAX: Agent TypesPAX: Agent Types


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PAX: Modeling of SoldiersPAX: Modeling of Soldiers

Soldiers are modeled withSoldiers are modeled with– purely reactive behaviorpurely reactive behavior– They always "function", They always "function",

according to their rule sets ( the according to their rule sets ( the rules of engagement)rules of engagement)

They do not have internal "state They do not have internal "state variables", that meansvariables", that means– no motives, no emotionsno motives, no emotions– only rule setsonly rule sets


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PAX: Behavior of SoldiersPAX: Behavior of Soldiers

Behavior of Soldiers is Determined by:Behavior of Soldiers is Determined by:– Actions of individual CiviliansActions of individual Civilians– Overall Situation: Behavior of Civilian Overall Situation: Behavior of Civilian

GroupsGroups

Action PossibilitiesAction Possibilities

– ActionAction “ “WaitWait””

– ActionAction “ “PacifyPacify””

– ActionAction “ “ThreatenThreaten””

– ActionAction “ “DefendDefend””

Alternative “Rule Sets” for the Alternative “Rule Sets” for the SoldiersSoldiers

Example for a behavior rule of the soldiers:Example for a behavior rule of the soldiers:

Civilian “threatens“Civilian “threatens“

Other Civilians are Other Civilians are mainly not aggressivemainly not aggressive

Soldier “pacifies”Soldier “pacifies”


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Soldiers: Rule Set 1Soldiers: Rule Set 1

RulesConditions1 2 3 4 5 6

1 Action of Civilian: Attack Y Y Y N2 Action of Civilian: Threaten Y Y N3 Dominating Group Behavior: Attack Y4 Dominating Group Behavior: Threaten Y5 Dominating Group Behavior: Not aggressive Y N Y

Actions1 "Defend" X2 "Threaten" X X3 "Pacify" X X4 "Wait" X


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Soldiers: Rule Set 2Soldiers: Rule Set 2

RulesConditions1 2 3 4 5 6

1 Action of Civilian: Attack Y Y Y N2 Action of Civilian: Threaten Y Y N3 Dominating Group Behavior: Attack Y4 Dominating Group Behavior: Threaten Y5 Dominating Group Behavior: Not aggressive Y N Y

Actions1 "Defend" X2 "Threaten" X X3 "Pacify"4 "Wait" X X X


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PAX: Behavior of CiviliansPAX: Behavior of Civilians

Dynamics of the Internal States of the Dynamics of the Internal States of the civilians:civilians:– Autonomous Dynamics Autonomous Dynamics – Actions of the soldiersActions of the soldiers– Group InfluenceGroup Influence

Individual Behavior is caused by:Individual Behavior is caused by:

– Internal States (e. g. of the motives, Internal States (e. g. of the motives, emotions, ...)emotions, ...)

– ““Thinking”, internal strategies Thinking”, internal strategies


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Modeling of the Civilians: Modeling of the Civilians: Action PossibilitiesAction Possibilities

ActionAction “ “WaitWait”” ActionAction “ “MoveMove”” ActionAction “ “Demand a supply packetDemand a supply packet” ” (target: supply (target: supply

vehicle)vehicle) ActionAction “ “ThreatenThreaten” ” (target: soldier)(target: soldier) ActionAction “ “AttackAttack” ” (target: soldier)(target: soldier)


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Psychological BackgroundPsychological Background

Behavior of Humans depends strongly on psychic

forces, like motives and emotions

– PAX: Motive Need, Emotions Fear and Anger

Those forces have a certain strength which may

change over time or because of certain events

In our case the modeled psychic forces are in

competition. That means, one of them is

dominating (action leading force / motive) the

others depending on the motivational / emotional

strength of the force.


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PAX: Behavior of CiviliansPAX: Behavior of Civilians

3 basic “Psychic Forces”:3 basic “Psychic Forces”:

– Motive “Motive “NeedNeed (for Food)” (for Food)”

– Emotion “Emotion “FearFear””

– Emotion “Emotion “AngerAnger””

Other important variablesOther important variables

– Readiness for AggressionReadiness for Aggression

– ......

NeedNeed

SelectionSelection

Action leading Force:Action leading Force:NeedNeed

Action Goal: Action Goal: Get Supply GoodsGet Supply Goods

AngerAnger FearFear


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PAX: Modeling of the CiviliansPAX: Modeling of the Civilians

Time continuous modeling (not only discrete

steps or event-based):

– allows the use of differential equations for

certain state variables, e. g. fear:

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Time

Fe

ar

EVENTEVENT


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Psychological BackgroundPsychological Background

Psychological Theory for the

evolvement of aggressiveness

Founded on empirical Findings

Example:

[Prentice-Dunn et al., 1989]

Being Part Being Part of aof a

Mass of Mass of PeoplePeople

Physiological ArousalPhysiological ArousalFeeling ofFeeling of

Group CohesivenessGroup Cohesiveness

DeindividuationDeindividuation


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Civilian Behavior Model (simplified)Civilian Behavior Model (simplified)

physiological arousal

deindividuation fear

anger

need

# food packets

number of people

action leading motive

assessment of soldier action

soldier action

social impact(behavior of

other civilians)

readiness for aggression

aggressive norms

Non-Military unit: Rules of Behavior

Non-Military

social impact (emotional

state of other civilians)

Environment


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PAX: Behavior of Food Supply Vehicle AgentPAX: Behavior of Food Supply Vehicle Agent

Specified Capacity of Food packetsSpecified Capacity of Food packets– e. g. 50 units.e. g. 50 units.

Civilian “demands Food“Civilian “demands Food“

Still Food available Still Food available on truckon truck

Hand out FoodHand out Food


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PAX: Scenario EditorPAX: Scenario Editor

TerrainTerrain– built-up areasbuilt-up areas

– normal areasnormal areas

– regions of influenceregions of influence Defining of AgentsDefining of Agents

– Soldier groupsSoldier groups

• Behavior rulesBehavior rules

– CiviliansCivilians

• different "personalities" different "personalities"

• Motives, EmotionsMotives, Emotions

• Readiness for AggressionReadiness for Aggression

• Group CohesivenessGroup Cohesiveness

– Supply VehicleSupply Vehicle

• number of supply packagesnumber of supply packages


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PAX: Running SimulationsPAX: Running Simulations

Selection of Scenario Selection of Scenario SettingsSettings

– Duration of SimulationDuration of Simulation

– Random NumbersRandom Numbers

• Runs are reproducible with same Runs are reproducible with same

setting of random numberssetting of random numbers


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PAX: AnimationPAX: Animation

Visualization of Visualization of performed simulationsperformed simulations

AgentsAgents– CiviliansCivilians

• REDRED: Anger is action-leading: Anger is action-leading

• GREENGREEN: Fear: Fear

• YELLOWYELLOW: Need: Need

– Soldier GroupsSoldier Groups

• BLUEBLUE

– Supply VehicleSupply Vehicle

• Dark-BLUEDark-BLUE


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PAX: Animation - InteractionsPAX: Animation - Interactions

InteractionsInteractions– Dark-REDDark-RED: Attack / : Attack /

Defend Defend

– REDRED: Threaten: Threaten

– GREENGREEN: Pacify: Pacify

– BLACK: Pass a supply BLACK: Pass a supply packetpacket

– BLAUBLAU: Demand a : Demand a packetpacket


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PAX: Animation - StatisticsPAX: Animation - Statistics


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PAX: Animation - DetailsPAX: Animation - Details


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Modeling of SoldiersModeling of Soldiers

– adding "soft factors", like emotions, stress, ...adding "soft factors", like emotions, stress, ...

– movementmovement

– sensorssensors

– advanced behavior (subtle tactics, ...)advanced behavior (subtle tactics, ...)

Developing a training tool Developing a training tool

– User interacts with PAX simulation, e. g. in a User interacts with PAX simulation, e. g. in a

3D virtual environment.3D virtual environment.

Calibration and Validation of PAXCalibration and Validation of PAX

– Tool for analyzing PSO effectsTool for analyzing PSO effects

Outlook: ModelingOutlook: Modeling


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Data Farming with PAXData Farming with PAX

Now: Now:

– Run PAX on 1 machineRun PAX on 1 machine

– Use of MS Excel for visualizationUse of MS Excel for visualization

Future: Future:

– Use of Gilgamesh networkUse of Gilgamesh network

– Use of Project Albert Visualization ToolkitUse of Project Albert Visualization Toolkit

Outlook: Data FarmingOutlook: Data Farming


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HeadquarterHeadquarter

ContingencyContingency UnitsUnits

Mission SpectrumMission SpectrumPSOPSO

CrowdCrowdControlControl

PatrolPatrol

ConvoyConvoy

ConfrontationConfrontationPolicePolice

OperationsOperationsCombatCombat

AdminAdminSupportSupport

DisarmingDisarming

FoodFoodSupplySupply

WaterWaterSupplySupply

FoodFoodStorageStorage

CrowdCrowdManagementManagement

CheckCheckPointPoint

Area/BuildingArea/BuildingScreeningScreening

SeparationSeparation

MedicalMedicalSupportSupport

ProtectionProtection

PSO: Mission SpectrumPSO: Mission Spectrum

Missions related to basics of PAXMissions related to basics of PAX

– group and mass effectsgroup and mass effects

– evolving aggressivenessevolving aggressiveness

– escalation / deescalationescalation / deescalation


DORNIER

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