Intelligence Overview - Afghanistan (Feb08)

7/28/2019 Intelligence Overview - Afghanistan (Feb08)

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2007 GW Consulting, Inc (GardaWorld)

Overall activity levels increased in this period with 500 incidents reported (235 AGE relatedattacks). Activity levels had been expected to increase as weather condition improvethroughout the country. This increase was most pronounced in the East and South East ofthe country with both areas being historical infiltration routes and expected to be the pri-mary focus of TB operations in 2008. Numerous differing assessments are available re-garding the spring offensive, however, research on previous years indicates that increasesin attack levels do occur annually, though not on a scale that warrants the term spring of-fensive.

Incident levels remain relatively constant throughout the Northern regions with 42 incidentsin North Region and 17 incidents in the North East. Both areas report little AGE relatedactivity, however, a small increase is expected as weather conditions improve in Mar. Asprevious mentioned, East and South East regions saw an increase in activity in this period,125 and 67 respectively. Activity in the East was concentrated in KUNAR Province withincreases in IED activity also being reported in NANGARHAR and LAGHMAN Provinces.Southern region remains the most volatile area nationally with 137 incidents reported. Mili-tary operations have continued in the region with HILMAND, KANDAHAR and ZABUL allreporting such activity. Certain areas within West region have remained volatile with signifi-cant AGE activity being reported in BAKWA, KHAK-E-SAFID and BALA BALUK districts.

The districts remain classified as high threat and along with Ghormach and Murghab dis-tricts of BADGHIS Province, represent the greatest threat to the IM within the region. Cen-tral region reported a 50% increase in activity with 60 incidents noted. AGE activity levelsremain low in the capital with one IED being recovered on J BAD Rd. Activity increased in

TAGAB districts of KAPISA Province with information indicating that AGE are planning toincrease the tempo of their operations in KAPISA, WARDAK and LOGAR Provinces.

AfghanistanIntelligence

OverviewFebruary 2008

In this issue:

Overview

North Region

North East Region

Eastern Region

South East Region

South Region

West Region

Central Region

Central Highlands

Overview:

Headlines:04Feb - A secret British plan to build military training camps for former Taliban fighters inHELMAND province has sent relations between Afghanistan and Britain to an all-time low,officials have revealed. Senior Afghan officials said the government had no knowledge ofthe attempts to persuade Taliban rebels to switch sides and then train them to fight in lo-cal militias until the plan was exposed last December.

07Feb: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza RICE and British Foreign Secretary DavidMILIBAND arrived in Afghanistan on an unannounced visit Thursday, carrying a joint mes-sage of support and prodding to Afghan officials as the United States continues a drive to

recruit more NATO troops.

10Feb: Norway closed its embassy in the Afghan capital KABUL Sunday because of "terror threats," a Foreign Min-istry spokeswoman said. Kristin MELSOM said the embassy will be closed until further notice. She would not elabo-rate on the nature of the threats or how long the embassy would remain closed.

29 Feb - Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Maulana Faqir Mohammad has said that the United States is thenumber one terrorist and the entire Muslim Ummah, in particular Pakistan, has been suffering because of its hege-monic policies. Addressing a gathering in Bajaur Agencys Aanayat Kalley area, the Maulana said that Pakistan hadbeen turned into a battlefield because of President Pervez Musharrafs pro-US policies. Waging jihad (holy war)against the US and its allies is an obligation of every Muslim, irrespective of state boundaries, he said. Pakistan isour country. We love it. Osama bin Laden and Mulla Omar are also sincere to Pakistan and its people and they dontwant war with them, he said. Bush is our enemy number one and till his defeat everywhere in the world, we will

continue our war.He said the Taliban have every right to attack troops and installations because of Pakistani rul-ers anti-Mujahideen policy. He told the gathering that no person would be pardoned for spying for the US forces.

TTP Jan

VBIED 2

BBIED 6

IED 67

SAF 28

CPX 31

IDF 17

Crime 50

MilOps

16

Feb

8

2

63

41

45

23

50

25


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2007 GW Consulting, Inc (GardaWorld)Page 2


Overview

National Incident Statistics

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

5

10

15

20

25

IncidentFrequency

Date

National attacks by date


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Overview

High risk route

North Region

Incident Levels North Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoola

ttack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

1

2

3

4

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Attacks

Date

North Region


4/23


Incident frequency remains low over this review period after 42 incidents were reported. Of these, only 6 are be-lieved to have been AGE related. BALKH remains the most active province with 24 incidents reported throughoutthe month of which 1 is thought to be AGE related. FARYAB reported the highest IED frequency with two incidentsin MAYMANA Province, however, devices throughout the region remain relatively ineffective. Separate reportingindicates that an influential commander has returned to FARYAB and a moderate increase in activity is expected asa result. North region has experienced harsh weather conditions throughout February and AGE movements andresupply are believed to have been adversely affected as a result. As the weather improves throughout March AGEactivity is expected to increase, as has already been seen in attack totals towards the end of February (see graphpage 2). Despite the increase, overall totals are expected to remain within excepted limits for the region. Criminalactivity remains the primary concern in the area with 12 reported incidents in the period. The majority of thereported crime involves highway banditry and therefore the threat is greatest whilst in transit. The current recog-nised hotspots for such activity are the main route between SAMANGAN and SHIBIRGAN and the MAYMANA area.

Page 4


Overview

North Region Summary

Significant Activity

MINE - BALKH PROVINCE, CHAHAR BOLAK DISTRICT, SAWRYAN VILLAGE On 29 February ANSF discovered

one AT mine and four AP mines planted on the road leading to Sawryan Village. Reportedly all the mines were de-fused by IM EOD team.

IED - FARYAB PROVINCE, MAYMANA CITY, MASJ EDE KHESHTI AREA, DISTRICT #2, On 15 February at ap-proximately 2115 hrs, an ANP vehicle struck a RCIED whilst conducting regular patrol. Two ANP officers wereslightly injured. ANP has arrested four suspects in connection to this case.

ARREST/FIND - BALKH PROVINCE, MAZARI SHARIF, DISTRICT #4, KOCHI KABAPI On 20 February at approxi-mately 0900hrs, it was reported that ANSF arrested a male individual in possession of explosive device. Another ar-rest was carried out in connection to the same case.


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Overview

North East Region

Incident Levels North East Region

0

1

2

3

4

5

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattac

k

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

1

2

3

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Attacks

Date

North East


6/23


Incident frequency in the north eastern region increased over this review period after 17 x incidents were reported,(previously 12). AGE related activity has remained low in this period with 3 AGE related attacks. AGE activity wasconcentrated in BADAKHSHAN with 2 x IED incidents reported in this period. As with Northern region the area hasbeen subjected to harsh weather conditions throughout the month as this will have had an adverse affect on AGEs

ability to operate and resupply. As weather conditions improve AGE activity is expected to increase moderately.BAGHLAN province is expected to report increase levels of activity with AGE and large criminal groups known to bepresent in Nahrin and Baglan J adid districts. The remainder of the region is also expected to see a slight increase inAGE related attacks with both ANSF and IM PRTs expected to be infrequently targeted in the coming month. As inNorthern region the primary threat to the IM community remains crime whilst in transit, with no information reportedthat suggests an imminent increase in attacks from AGE groupings against civilian targets.

Page 6


Overview

North East Region Summary


Find - 04Feb, BAGHLAN Province, BAGHLAN J ADID District: Authorities discovered a weapons cache in the citycentre. The weapons were safely removed and investigation is ongoing.

IED - BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE, FAYZABAD DISTRICT, FAYZABAD CITY, Old City area, On 11 Feb an IED was

discovered near a police station. Later an IM EOD team defused the device.

IED - BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE, BAHARAK DISTRICT On 11 Feb an IED was discovered in Rababi School andsafely defused by ANP.


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Overview

Incident levels East Region

East Region

0

5

10

15

20

25

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Attacks

Date

East Region


8/23


The security situation in the eastern region continues to be assessed as highly volatile after 125 x incidents werereported over this review, (previously 81). CPXs have remained the prevalent TTP throughout the region with a totalof 25 attacks reported. Attacks were primarily reported in KUNAR district, however, the majority of attacks resultedin no damage or casualties despite the incident duration being 30-45mins. The low effectiveness of these attacksindicate that AGE continue to engage well defended targets from a long distances and such tactics are expected tocontinue into the forthcoming period. The majority of reported CPXs in KUNAR were seen in SIRKANAY (8), PECH(3), CHAWKI (2) and GHAZIABAD (2). The districts are located to the west of ASADABAD and the increased use ofthis TTP heightens the threat to convoys on the main ASADABAD-J ALALABAD Rd. An increase in IED activity wasalso reported in LAGHMAN and NANGARHAR Provinces with attacks/finds seen in Mihtarlam/Alingar districts ofLAGHMAN Province and Bati Kot and Chapahar districts of NANGARHAR Province. IED frequency is expected toincrease moderately throughout March with AGE continuing to focus on main routes in NANGARHAR and LAGH-MAN. Several separate sources report that the Eastern region will be the main focus of the spring offensive with TBforces mounting from the Mohmand and Bajour in Pakistan. A similar pattern was seen throughout 2007 with infiltra-tion being frequently reported in the KUNAR area. AGE are expected to attempt to extend their sphere of influencethrough KUNAR and LAGHMAN with the ultimate aim being a rejuvenation of AGE elements within the TAGAB val-ley area of KAPISA Province.

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Overview


East Region Summary

IVCP - 01Feb, KUNAR Province, SHAYGAL WA SHILTAN District: A group of AGE wearing ANA uniforms had es-tablished mobile CPs along the main road between Asadabad and Bar Kunar Districts. The group were stopping ve-hicles in order to locate government officials/employees.

CPX - 06Feb, NURISTAN Province, KAMDESH District: AGE attacked the private residence of the acting CoP ofNuristan with RPG and SAF. As a result the house was extensively damaged, however no casualties were reported.

UXO - 071120Feb, NANGARHAR Province, RODAT District: Old UXO detonated close to the local school resultingin two children being killed and another six injured.

RPG - 080800Feb, KUNAR Province, CHAWKAY District: AGE fired four RPG rounds towards the road constructioncompany site in the area. The projectiles are reported to have missed the target and caused no damage.

IDF - 090520Feb, NANGARHAR Province, BEHSUD District: AGE fired a rocket (type unspecified) towards the JAF.The rocket impacted in an open area and no casualties or damages have been reported.

IDF - 100700Feb, NANGARHAR Province, CHAPARHAR District: ANP discovered two rockets connected to timers,the rockets were directed at the DAC and were later defused by an EOD team.CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, TANGO VILLAGE, It was reported that AGE attacked an ANPCP with RPG, PK and SAF on 11 Feb. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approx 45 minutes and no casual-ties or damages have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, PASHED VILLAGE It was reported that AGE attacked an ANPCP with RPG, PK and SAF on 11 Feb. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approximately 45 minutes and nocasualties or damages have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, GHAZIABAD DISTRICT, SANAK AREA On 13 Feb at approx 0930hrs, it was reportedthat AGE attacked an ANP CP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approximately 45minutes and no casualties or damages have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, PECH VALLEY On 15 February at approximately 2130 hrs, it was reported that AGEattacked a recently established ANP CP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approxi-mately 15 minutes. Although the CP was extensively damaged, no injuries were reported.CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, CHAWKAY DISTRICT, DEWAGAL VALLEY On 15 February at approximately 1000 hrs,it was reported that AGE attacked an IM OP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted forapprox 1 hour, during which time one AGE member was killed, whilst another AGE and IM member were injured.CPX - NURISTAN PROVINCE, WAYGAL DISTRICT On 15 February it was reported that AGE attacked the IMbase with RPG, PK and SAF. The exchange of fire lasted for approx 45 minutes. No casualties or damage havebeen reported.CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, CHAPA DARA DISTRICT On 15 February it was reported that AGE attacked the IMbase with RPG, PK and SAF. The exchange of fire lasted for approximately 30 minutes. No casualties or damagehave been reported.


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Overview

Significant Activity - cont

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, PECH VALLEY, KANDAGAL VILLAGE On 15 February at approximately 1700 hrs, itwas reported that an IED (type unspecified) detonated on ANA vehicle, which was followed-up by SAF. As a resultone ANA member and a translator working for the IM were killed, whilst another six ANA members were injured.CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, TANGO AREA On 19 February at approximately 1800hrs, it was

reported that AGE attacked a PSC CP with RPG, PK and SAF. The CP was guarding a private road constructioncompany working in the area at the time of the attack. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for two hours and nocasualties or damage have been reported.CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, PASHED VILLAGE On 19 February at approximately 2200hrs, itwas reported that AGE attacked an ANP CP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for ap-proximately 45 minutes and no casualties or damage have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, BAR KUNAR DISTRICT On 19 February it was reported that AGE attacked the IM basein the area with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for one hour and no casualties or damagehave been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, WATA PUR DISTRICT On 22 February at approximately 1800hrs, it was reported AGEattacked the IM base in the area with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approximately 35minutes and no casualties or damages have been reported.

IED - KUNAR PROVINCE, KHAS KUNAR DISTRICT, BARABAT AREA On 23 February approximately 0920hrs, itwas reported that seven armed security guards working for a road construction company were killed instantly whentheir vehicle (Toyota Corolla) was struck by an IED in the above mentioned area. The subject private company iscurrently engaged in a number of road construction projects in the above mentioned area.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, NARANG DISTRICT, SHAHEED SAR AREA, MAIN JALALABAD-ASDABAD ROAD On23 February approximately 0845hrs, it was reported that AGE attacked an IM convoy with PK and SAF. Reportedlythe exchange of fire lasted for approximately five minutes and no casualties or damages have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, NAWAY AREA On 23 February approximately 2100 hrs, it wasreported that AGE attacked an ABP CP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for about 40minutes. No casualties or damages have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, GHAZIABAD DISTRICT, J ALAL AREA On 23 February approximately 1630 hrs, it wasreported that AGE attacked an ANP patrol with PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for about 20 min-utes. No casualties or damages have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, NAWAY AREA On 25 February at approximately 0045hrs, it wasreported that AGE attacked an ABP CP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approxi-mately 30 minutes and no casualties or damages have been reported.CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, DONA AREA On 25 February at approximately 2100hrs, it wasreported that AGE attacked an ANP CP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approxi-mately one hour and no casualties or damages have been reported.

CPX - KUNAR PROVINCE, SIRKANAY DISTRICT, TANGO AREA On 25 February at approximately 1730hrs, it wasreported that AGE attacked an IM convoy with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of fire lasted for approxi-mately 15 minutes and no casualties or damages were reported.

CPX - LAGHMAN PROVINCE, QARGHAYI DISTRICT, KAFTAR KHANA AREA On 26 February at approximately2130hrs, it was reported that AGE attacked an ANP CP with RPG, PK and SAF. Reportedly the exchange of firelasted for approximately 15 minutes and no casualties or damages have been reported.


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Overview

South East Region

South East Region Incident Levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Attacks

Date

South East Region

AGE infiltration expected toincrease throughout March


11/23


Activity levels increased during February with a total of 67 incidents reported (previously 56). The security situationin the south east region continues to be assessed as extremely volatile and high risk for the IC despite the low inci-dent rate when compared to the East and South of the country. Activity was concentrated in KHOST Province with atotal of 46 incidents reported in the area. Approximately 60% of this total is assessed as being AGE related with thedistricts of Khost Matun, Sabari and Tere Zayi reported the most significant attacks. Activity levels have seen a smallincrease in PAKTIKA Province in late February and early March. The region has been relatively calm throughout thewinter period, however, as the weather situation improves an increase in AGE infiltration and activity is expected inthe region. The districts of Gomal and Barmal reported significant infiltration rates throughout 2007 and a similarpattern is expected during spring 2008. As was anticipated, suicide devices returned last month though in compara-tively low numbers after only 3 x VBIEDs were experienced. The tempo of such operations changed in early marchwith two attacks reported in a 48hrs period. Further attacks are expected with IM and ANSF expected to be the pri-mary target. The threat to members of the IC remains assessed as HIGH in the eastern regions with primary moti-vating factors revolving equally between both AGE and crime, though the most likely scenario would be collateraldamage in an attack against MNF/ANSF units.

Page 11


Overview


South East Region Summary

RPG - 051900Feb, KHOST Province, SHAMAL District: A group of insurgents attacked a civilian truck with RPGsthat was transporting MNF supplies. The vehicle and the supplies were damaged but no casualties were reported.

SVBIED - 071205Feb, KHOST Province, KHOST MATUN District: A MNF patrol was targeted by a SVBIED (a Su-per Custom minibus). The device detonated prematurely failing to hit the target with the bomber and 1 x LN KIA.IED - 08Feb, PAKTIKA Province, GAYAN District, GAYAN City Centre: ANP discovered five IEDs planted on a sub-

road. The IEDs were safely defused by a MNF EOD team.

SVBIED - 081410Feb, GHAZNI Province, GHAZNI Centre, on the road leading to the ANA Base: An ANA vehiclewas targeted by a SVBIED, the SVBIED detonated close to its target killing the suicide bomber, one ANA soldier andtwo civilians. Three ANA soldiers were also wounded in the blast.

Mine - 091400Feb, KHOST Province, GURBUZ District: Two civilians were hit by an AP mine while they were in the

field gathering stones for a building construction. One of the civilians was killed, the other injured.CPX - 102230Feb, KHOST Province, BAK District, District Administration Centre: A group of insurgents attacked theDAC with RPG and SAF, ANP engaged them in a fire fight for about 30 minutes before they withdrew. No casualtieswere reported.IED - KHOST PROVINCE, KHOST (MATUN) DISTRICT, SHINKAI AREA On 12 Feb at approx 1030 hrs, an ASFvehicle was hit by an IED on a sub-road. Four ASF soldiers were killed in the IED explosion.

IED - KHOST PROVINCE, BAK DISTRICT, SHAMALKHEL AND SPERKI VILLAGES On 12 Feb AGE detonatedRCIEDs in front of three civilian houses. Local security sources indicated that one of the houses belongs to a police-man while the other two belong to supporters of the GoA. The explosions caused some structural damage to thehouses but no casualties were reported.IED - KHOST PROVINCE, TERE ZAYI DISTRICT, BABRAK TANA AREA On 20 February at approx 1115 hrs, anASF vehicle was hit by a roadside IED. One ASF soldier was killed and another one wounded in the incident.

IED - KHOST PROVINCE, KHOST MATUN DISTRICT, PIRANO AREA, On 18 February at approx 1100 hrs, ANP

discovered and safely defused six RCIEDs that were planted on a sub road.SVBIED - KHOST PROVINCE, MANDO ZAYI DISTRICT, ON THE MAIN ROAD KHOST-GARDEZ On 22 Februaryat 1400hrs; it was reported that a failed SVBIED on ANA convoy resulted in the death of the suicide bomber andpassing motorcycle rider. An ANA vehicle sustained slight damage.IED - KHOST PROVINCE, SABARI DISTRICT, NURI KALAY AREA On 26 February at 0840 hrs, a private vehiclebelonging to an ANP officer was hit by an IED on a secondary road. The police officer and four other policemen werekilled in the explosion.IED - PAKTIKA PROVINCE, SHARAN DISTRICT, SHARAN CENTRE, ZOR SHARAN AREA On 26 February atapprox 1800 hrs an IM vehicle hit an IED that was planted on a sub-road in the area. As a result of the IED explo-sion, two IM soldiers (Polish) were killed and another IM soldier was wounded.CPX - PAKTIKA PROVINCE, BARMAL DISTRICT, SHKIN AREA On 26 February at approximately 1600 hrs; agroup of insurgents attacked an ANSF unit whilst they were trying to defuse two IEDs planted on a sub-road. As aresult of the attack, two ANSF were killed.


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Overview

South Region

South Region Incident Levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Attacks

Date

South Region


13/23


The security situation in the southern region remains assessed as extremely volatile and HIGH risk for the IC after137 x incidents were reported over this review period, (previously 101). The threat to members of the IC in this re-gion is deemed as being primarily from AGE as opposed to crime with kidnap assessed as particularly significant.

The south has emerged as the most volatile region in the country over this review period with KANDAHAR proving

by far the most active province, recording 69 x incidents, (previously 65). ZHERAI District recorded 15 x incidents(previously 20) and KANDAHAR district itself recorded 25 with other particularly volatile areas emerging as MAY-WAND and QALAT. The new Provincial Governor of HILMAND was also announced in this period with the currentGovernor of LAGHMAN Province (Gulab Mangal) being appointed to the position. The replacement of the previousgovernor has created discord both at the national and tribal level, with elders from the Alizai tribe and former militiamembers, meeting in Lashkar Gah to call for the reinstatement of the previous governor. The tribe is the dominantPashtun grouping throughout KAJ AKI, BAGHRAN and MUSA QALA districts with the former governor, SherMohammad Akunzada, also being an Alizai tribal member. The tribe is known to have AGE sympathies, with thesub tribe (Pirzai Alizai), having fought alongside the TB in MUSA QALA in late 2007. The current disagreement mayhave repercussions on the Provincial Security situation and the situation remains closely monitored in order to ascer-tain the immediate impact of the decision. Military operations also feature heavily in reporting in this period with op-erations reported in Musa Qala and Kajaki districts of HILMAND Province, Kandahar and Zherai districts of KANDA-HAR Province and Qalat district of ZABUL province. No significant change is expected to the current situation or

activity levels in South Region. The area is relatively unaffected by extreme winter weather and subsequently did notreport the decrease in activity that has been seen in the East and South East Regions.

Page 13


Overview

South Region Summary

South Region Significant Incidents

MNF Ops - 010300Feb, KANDAHAR Province, MAYWAND District: MNF conducted operations resulting in 2 x AGEKIA and 2 x AGE were detained by MNF.

SAF - 031330Feb, URUZGAN Province, DIHRAWUD District: AGE ambushed an MNF/ANP convoy in DihrawudDistrict. Eight AGE were killed and two ANP officers were wounded. Two ANP ranger vehicles were damaged in theincident.Crime - 031400Feb, KANDAHAR Province, KANDAHAR District: A ranger vehicle with a number of ANP officersfrom Zhari District, was stopped at the ANP CP in Simano Pool area, District 9, Kandahar City. One of the ANP Offi-

cers in the vehicle refused to be disarmed and opened fire, killing three ANP officers at the CP , wounding eight otherofficers and one civilian. The ANP officers in the vehicle were arrested.

IED - 041915Feb, KANDAHAR Province, KANDAHAR District: An ANP patrol vehicle was struck by road side IED inMirza Mohammad Khan Qalacha area, District 8, Kandahar City. Two ANP officers were killed. Three other ANP offi-cers were wounded and evacuated to Mirwise Hospital. The ANP ranger vehicle was completely destroyed.

MNF Ops - 05Feb, KANDAHAR Province, PANYWAI District: 8 x AGE were killed in MNF air strike, while they wereplanting roadside IEDs in Panjwayi District.

SAF - 051200Feb, KANDAHAR Province, ZHARI District: AGE attacked ISAF and ANP in House-e-Madat area. Theresultant clash lasted for one and a half hours. Eight AGE were reportedly killed.

IED - 05Feb, HILMAND Province, NAHRI SARRAJ District: A MNF vehicle in a patrol convoy was struck by a road-side IED in Dab Village, Nahri Sarraj District. 1 x MNF soldier was reportedly killed and two others were wounded.

The patrol also discovered and disposed of two further IEDs in the same area.

IED - 080920Feb, URUZGAN Province, KHAS URUZGAN District: An ANP vehicle was struck by road side IED inToshka area. Two ANP officers were killed and two others were wounded.

IED - 08Feb, KANDAHAR Province, MAYWAND District: An IED detonated prematurely when AGE were assem-bling the device in Loya Kali, Band-e-Timour Village, Maywand District. Four AGE, including a middle ranking AGEcommander who was reportedly an IED expert, were killed and two others were wounded.

IED - 08Feb, HELMAND Province, SANGIN District: An ANA vehicle was struck by roadside IED during IM/ANAjoint patrols in Deh Khak Karez area of Sangin District. One ANP solder was killed and two others were wounded.

MNF Ops - 08Feb, HILMAND Province, KAJ AKI District: MNF/ANA/ANP conducted joint operations in Nicha Village,Zamindawour area, Kajaki District, four AGE and two civilians were killed with AGE thought to be hiding in the civilianresidences. Two other AGE were arrested.


14/23



Overview

South Region Significant Incidents

SAF - 091400Feb, HILMAND Province, NAD ALI District: AGE ambushed an ANP patrol vehicle in Nad Ali District.One ANP officer and one AGE were killed.SVBIED - 101000Feb, ZABUL Province, QALAT District: AGE had prepared a vehicle as a VBIED. The vehicle be-

longed to the Head of Peace and Reconciliation Program of Zabul Province who was assassinated by AGE on 20J an 08. A MNF air strike targeted and destroyed the vehicle in Ramazan Khan Village, Qalat District. No casualtieswere reported.IED - 111200Feb, KANDAHAR Province, SHAH WALI KOT District: The Kandahar Governor was visiting Shah WaliKot District to inaugurated some projects and to meet local elders. He flew in to the District and then moved by vehi-cle convoy to the area. On route one vehicle was struck by a road side IED. The Governor was unhurt but three civil-ians were wounded. ANP arrested two suspects following the incident.CPX - HILMAND PROVINCE, MUSA QALA DISTRICT On 10 Feb at approximately 1000hrs, an IM patrol was am-bushed by AGE in the Mosulamni area of Musa Qala District. Nine AGE were reportedly killed during the exchangeof fire. No IM casualties were reported.

CPX - HILMAND PROVINCE, NAHRI SARRAJ DISTRICT On 10 February at approximately 2200hrs, AGE attackedan ANP CP in Yakhchal area. No casualties were reported on either side.BBIED - KANDAHAR PROVINCE, ARGHANDAB DISTRICT On 17 February at approximately 1005 hrs, a suicide

BBIED bomber detonated in the midst of a local crowd which had gathered to watch a dog fight session in NagahanRudkhana area of Arghandab District. At the reporting time the casualty figures have risen to 100+ including 13ANAP personnel including the ANAP commander for Arghandab District killed. 90 civilians and ANAP werewounded. The casualty figures are still expected to rise as the police report that families carried away bodies of rela-tives. The wounded victims were evacuated to Mirwise Hospital and IM medical facilities at KAF for treatment.

VBIED - KANDAHAR PROVINCE, SPIN BOLDAK DISTRICT On 18 Feb at approximately 1430 hrs, a suicideVBIED rigged in a Toyota corolla vehicle detonated against an IM vehicle in a convoy in Kakarano Mondai areaWaish, at the Pak-Afghan Border, Spin Boldak District. Open sources report 2 x IM KIA and 35 LNs KIA. The casu-alty figures are expected to rise as details are released.

INTIMIDATION - KANDAHAR PROVINCE, KANDAHAR CITY On 19 J anuary reports were received indicating thatlocal AGE commanders have made several phone calls to media houses and mobile phone service providers threat-ening to carry out further and widespread attacks on the cell phone antenna masts in Southern Region. AGE are re-ported to have instructed cell phone service providers to disable their antennas overnight from 1800 to 0800 hrs.Some service providers have since obeyed the AGE communication silence order to avert AGE attack on their fa-cilities. COMMENT The attacks/threats have been prompted by a belief within AGE circles that mobile phone com-panies either assist or are complicit in the interception of mobile phone conversations by the IM. COMMENT ENDS.

IED - KANDAHAR PROVINCE, MAYWAND DISTRICT On 24 February at approximately 1625 hrs, an escort vehicleof the Kandahar CoP was struck by roadside IED in Moshak area between Garmawak Village and Maywand DistrictAdministrative Center. The vehicle was part of the Governor of Kandahars Convoy which was returning from his visitto Maywand District. Two ANP officers were killed and four others wounded and the ANP vehicle was destroyed.

CPX - NIMROZ PROVINCE, KHASH ROD DISTRICT On 26 February at approximately 2300 hrs, AGE attacked withsmall arms and RPG an ANP CP, guarding a road construction company in Demazang area. The clash lasted forthree hours. ANP seized a number of weapons in the incident. No casualties were reported from either side.CPX - NIMROZ DISTRICT, KHASH ROD DISTRICT, MONNAR AREA, On 1 March at approx 2000 hrs, numerousAGE in 15 vehicles simultaneously attacked two ANP CPs. No casualties were reported from either side.

IED - HILMAND PROVINCE, NAWA-I- BARAK ZAYI DISTRICT, DASHT-E-AINAK AREA On 28 February at approx0730 hrs, a private Toyota Land Cruiser vehicle was struck by a roadside IED. Three local males were killed and onewas wounded.


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Overview

West Region

West Region Incident Levels

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

78

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Attacks

Date

West Region


16/23


The western region has seen incident frequency increase with 46 x incidents recorded, (previously 31). Although themajority of the Region is classified as low threat the districts of Bala Baluk, Bakwa, Pusht Rod and Khaki Safed inFARAH province are now classified as high threat. The districts have seen sustained AGE activity throughout janand Feb with joint IM/ANA operations reported in Bakwa in this reporting period. Abduction remains a concern in the

FARAH area with the kidnapping of professional level LNs increasing in this period. Incidents were reported in BalaBaluk (2), Gulistan (3) and Khaki Safed (1) with the majority of these abductions believed to have been perpetratedby criminal gangs for financial gain. A moderate increase in activity was reported in BADGHIS Province throughoutthe month with reporting indicating that a further increase in AGE can be expected in Gormach and Murghab dis-tricts. The areas reported significant AGE related activity throughout 2007, however, due to the poor weather condi-tions in J an and early Feb, AGE incidents were minimal. One DAC takeover was also reported in this reporting pe-riod. The incident occurred following the arrest if an IAG commander in Dalwat Yar district, GHOR Province. Al-though there has been no further reporting on the incident it is believed that ANP now control the DAC. The incidenthighlights the poor security structure present in remote districts and the sudden deterioration that IAGs can cause tothe security situation. Suicide tactics were also reported in FARAH during February with 1 x VBIED seen in Bakwadistrict and 1 x BBIED in Bala Baluk district. Suicide tactics are rare in the West and these attacks represent a sig-nificant increase in such tactics. Both attacks were relatively ineffective and no further increase is expected in sui-cide incident frequency.

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Overview


West Region Summary

Crime - 02230Feb, HIRAT Province, HIRAT City, District 6: A lawyer was shot dead in front of his residence by twoarmed motorcyclists.SAF - 100830Feb, HERAT Province, HERAT City, District 8: The Guzara District Administrators vehicle was am-

bushed by armed men on the way from Herat city to the DAC. As a result of the attack, the Administrator was seri-

ously wounded and his son was killed.

Abduction - 100900Feb, HERAT Province, GUZARA District: A wealthy local civilian was abducted by unknown

armed men.

SAF - 090130Febr, HERAT Province, SHINDAND District Centre: Shindand district jail was attacked by a group of

armed men. Exchange of fire between the attackers and the guards resulted in killing two and wounding six attack-ers, who were reportedly taken away by the other attackers. No ANP casualties were reported.

MNF Ops - 101000Feb, FARAH Province, BALA BULUK District: A MNF patrol opened fire on a civilian car deemingit had approached the convoy too close. As a result of the shooting the driver was killed and one passenger waswounded.

ABDUCTION - FARAH PROVINCE, KHAKI SAFED DISTRICT, BABOS DASHT AREA On 10 February a group of21 nationals and internationals travelling from Khaki Safed District to Anar Dara District in five vehicles were ab-ducted by a group of unknown armed men. Reportedly, 14 of them have been later released. Of the remaining 6captives 4 are believed to be Afghan and 2 are QATAR embassy staff.CRIME - FARAH PROVINCE, BAKWA DISTRICT, HABIBULLAH FUEL STATION AREA On 11 February on Kanda-har-Herat ring road, an exchange of fire between ANP patrol and a group of armed men attempting to hijack a pri-vate food truck resulted in one of the criminals being killed and two other injured. Three ANP personnel were alsowounded in the crossfire.

SVBIED - FARAH PROVINCE, BAKWA DISTRICT, KHAIRABAD VILLAGE, On 12 February at approximately1230hrs, an IM convoy en-route from Delaram to Bakwa district came under a SVBIED attack resulted in one convoyvehicle being slightly damaged, one IM personnel being injured, whilst the suicide bomber was killed in the blast.

ABDUCTION - FARAH PROVINCE, MARKAZ DISTRICT, KHORMALEGH VILLAGE On 18 February two employeesof the Education Department were abducted by unknown armed men.BBIED - FARAH PROVINCE, BALA BULUK DISTRICT, GARANI VILLAGE, On 23 February at approximately1500hrs, a failed SBBIED attack on ANP convoy resulted in the suicide bomber being killed in the blast, whilst ANPsuffered no casualties.GHOR PROVINCE, DAWLAT YAR DISTRICT, On 27 February at approximately 1000hrs, in response to the arrestof a local IAG commander by ANP, the IAG fighters attacked the DAC taking the District Administrator, his brotherand the District CoP hostage. The IAG are believed to retain control of the district.


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Overview

Central Region Incident levels

Central Region

KABUL

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Attacks

Date

Central Region (not inclusive of i ncidents wi thin Kabul)


18/23



Overview

KABUL ongoing threat areas by Police District - Police Intelligence Assessment

2

1

10

4

City

Centre

5

17

11 15 18

8

76

13

9

16

J BAD Rd

AIRPORT

3

Current Low threat Police DistrictsCurrent Medium threat Police DistrictsCurrent High threat Police Districts.

Central Region PD Threat levels

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Attacks

Date

Kabul


19/23



Overview

Central Region Significant Incidents

Central Region SummaryThe overall activity level increased in this period with 60 incidents reported (previously 37) of which approximately50% are AGE related. AGE related activity was low within the KABUL area with only 1 x IED being recovered on the

J ALALABAD Rd. Numerous threat warning were issued throughout the month in the wake of the J anuary attack onthe Serena Hotel. The majority of all the threat warnings issued pertained to further BBIED activity within the capital,aimed primarily at western commercial targets. No such activity has been seen, however, due to the perceived suc-cess of the Serena hotel attack, further attacks on High Profile targets (IM, GoA, Prestigious civilian targets) are ex-pected in the coming period. Current extant ANP threat warnings are the following:

4 x female BBIEDs to be deployed in KABUL city area. Target NK.

1 x SVBIED to be deployed in the KABUL city area. The vehicle is an ANP Ranger with MoI markings and will enterthe city through Kart-e-Parwan and the reported target is an MoI compound. ANP operations are underway with re-gards to this information.

Activity levels also increased in WARDAK, LOGAR and KAPISA Provinces. A spate of AGE attacks was reported inTAGAB District of KAPISA Province with 6 incidents reported between 9-19 Feb. The area had seen a slight de-crease over the winter months and the moderate increase is an indicator that groupings present in the area havereceived re-supply of personnel and equipment from the Eastern region. The district is expected to see a further in-

crease in AGE related activity as AGE attempt to pressurize the capital through attacks in adjacent districts. Anoverspill of activity is also expected with SUROBI district (KABUL) and KOHI SAFI (PARWAN) also expected to re-port a moderate increase in AGE activity in the forthcoming period. WARDAK and LOGAR Provinces only reportedlimited activity in this reporting period with the majority of reported incidents being non AGE related. Local sourcesreport that night letters have been distributed in villages close to route 1 from Sayad Abad to Maydan Shahr. Theletters recommend that residents leave the area as an imminent AGE offensive is to begin. This information has alsobeen confirmed through ANP sources and it is believed that AGE will attempt to increase the tempo of their opera-tions on the route to the immediate South West of the capital.

Kidnap - 030130Feb, KABUL Province, PD-10, WAZIR AKBAR KHAN: A group of armed men broke into the resi-dence of a local leader and kidnapped him after beating his family members. The perpetrators shot and wounded

one of the victims bodyguards before escaping with the hostage. After ANP intervention, the hostage was released,(see front page for media coverage).

Crime - 02Feb, WARDAK Province, SAYDABAD District: Six armed men, who were found robbing passengersalong the Maydan Shahr-Ghazni road, were arrested after a firefight with ANP. One civilian was killed during thecrossfire.

CPX - 041730Feb, KAPISA Province, TAGAB District: AGE reportedly attacked an ANP CP with small and heavyweapons. The attack was repelled by ANP with no casualties reported.

Bodies - 06Feb, LOGAR Province, MOHAMMAD AGHA District: ANP discovered three corpses (one woman, andtwo children) in a well after they had been reported missing days earlier. A member of the same family is consideredto be the suspect of the case.Abduction - 09Feb, KABUL Province, PD-11: Men abducted an eight year old boy near his house.

Find - 09Feb, KABUL Province, PD-7: ANP confiscated eight AK-47 rifles, one pistol and a quantity of assortedrounds during a search on a vehicle. Four local persons in the vehicle were arrested.

SAF - 09Feb, KAPISA Province, TAGAB District: An ANP CP repelled an AGE attacked. Exchange of fire lasted forabout four hours. No casualties were reported.ABDUCTION/MURDER - KABUL PROVINCE, SHAKARDARA DISTRICT, SULIMAN VILLAGE On 12 February ANPdiscovered the corpse of a local taxi driver who had been kidnapped and later killed by unknown armed men on 11February 2008.CPX - KAPISA PROVINCE, TAGAB DISTRICT, SHER KHEL AREA, On 11 February at 1830hrs, AGE reportedlyattacked an ANP CP with small and heavy weapons. The attack was repelled with no casualties reported.

SAF - KAPISA PROVINCE, TAGAB DISTRICT, SALEH VILLAGE, On 13 Feb at 1830hrs, oneANP personnel sustained injuries during an AGE attack on a Check Post.

SAF - KAPISA PROVINCE, TAGAB DISTRICT, SALEH VILLAGE On 13 Feb at 1830hrs, one ANP personnel sus-tained injuries during an AGE attack on a Check Post.


20/23



Overview

Central Region Significant Incidents

CPX - KAPISA PROVINCE, TAGAB DISTRICT On 15 February at 2000hrs, ANP reportedly repelled an AGE attackon the DAC. No casualties were reported.

ABDUCTION - KABUL PROVINCE, PD-4, TAIMANI AREA, STREET 3 On 18 February at 0900hrs, four armed menwearing military type uniforms driving a white Toyota Corolla vehicle (Plate #2657) abducted a male student who isan employee of a local private company. The perpetrators shot and wounded three persons including a teacher whoattempted to prevent the abduction. The abductors escaped the area with the hostage.

CPX - KAPISA PROVINCE, TAGAB DISTRICT, SHER KHEL AREA On 19 February ANP reportedly repelled anAGE attack on their CP. No casualties were reported.

CPX - LOGAR PROVINCE, MOHAMMAD AGHA DISTRICT, SAFID SANG AREA On 20 February at 0030hrs, agroup of unidentified armed men attacked an ANP CP and escaped with 13 AK-47 rifles, one heavy machine gun(PK), one RPG7 and radio handsets. No injuries were reported.

IED KABUL PROVINCE, PD-9, YAKATOOT BANAYE AREA On the 24 Feb at 0940hrs, ANP/NDS discovered and

defused a road side RCIED on J alalabad road, approximately one km east of Abdul Haq square.IED - WARDAK PROVINCE, MAYDAN SHAHR DISTRICT, KOTASHROW VILLAGE, On 24 February at 1030hrs,ANP discovered and defused an IED consisting of 2 BM rockets which had been recently planted on a side of themain Maydan Shahr - J alrez road.

CPX - WARDAK PROVINCE, SAYDABAD DISTRICT, TANGI VALLEY, KHARNI VILLAGE On 23 February at0845hrs, an IM patrol was directly attacked by AGE. The exchange of fire lasted for about 30 minutes. No arrests orcasualties were reported.CPX - KABUL PROVINCE, SUROBI DISTRICT, FABRIKA AREA On 27 February at 0900hrs, a high official of MOIescaped unhurt after unknown armed men fired two RPG and small arms at his convoy along the Kabul J alalabadmain road.


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Overview

Central Highlands Region

Incident Levels Central Highlands Region

0

1

2

VBIEDBBIED

IED SAFIDF CPX

Abduction

HG MineSchoolattack

Infiltration

DrugRPG

CrimeFinds

TribalOther

Hijack


22/23


The security situation in Central Highlands Region has seen no reported attacks, however, recent reporting indicatesa large AGE presence in the region. In DAI KUNDI Province a large group of AGE have reportedly moved into KI-

J RAN district from neighbouring URUZGAN Province with the aim of attacking KIJ RAN District Centre. The areasaw similar activity in 2007 which resulted in protracted clashes between ANP and AGE. In BAMYAN Province AGEoperations remain very limited with crime and banditry the primary concern for the IC. The threat towards the IC inthe region remains assessed as LOW with inclement weather in the mountainous areas likely to ensure that incidentlevels remain low for the near future.

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Overview

Central Highlands Significant Incidents

Central Highlands Summary

CP - 02Feb, DAI KUNDI Province, KEJ RAN District: AGE coming from Charchenia District of Uruzgan, establisheda new CP with about 20 armed men in Munara area.

Body - 05Feb, BAMYAN Province, WARAS District: A body was found under the snow, NFDK.


23/23

Acronyms:

ABP - Afghan Border PoliceANP - Afghan National Police

ASF - Afghan Security Forces

BBIED - Body Borne improvised explosive device

CFC-A Combined Forces Command Afghanistan

CPX - Complex attack (ambush using two or more weapons systems)

CWIED - Command wire improvised explosive device

DHQ - District Head Quarters.

GoA - Government of Afghanistan

HG - Hand grenade

IDF - Indirect FireIED - Improvised explosive device

ISAF - International Security Assistance Force

IMF - International Military Force

MNF - Multi National Forces

IVCP - Illegal Vehicle Check Point

MSR - Main Supply Route

NDS - National Directorate of Security

RCIED - Radio controlled Improvised explosive device

RPG - Rocket propelled grenade

RR - Recoilless rifle

SAF - Small arms fire

SOP - Standard operating procedure

SSAR - Surface to surface aerial rocket

TTP - Tactics, Techniques and Procedures

UXO - unexploded ordinance

VBIED - Vehicle Borne improvised explosive device

EOF - Escalation of Force

Peter ShannonCountry Intelligence Manager, [email protected]+93 79903 9606


Overview

Acronyms/Credits

Intelligence Overview - Afghanistan (Feb08)

Documents

Transcript of Intelligence Overview - Afghanistan (Feb08)