Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
33
Integrating Probable Field Work Days into Nutrient Management Plans John Lory, Ray Massey and Pat Guinan University of Missouri
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http://www.extension.org/67619 Weather conditions impact land application of manure. Wet soils hinder equipment from accessing fields. Regulations prohibit application on frozen or snow cover soils. Uncertain soil and atmospheric conditions can cause the best plans to fail. Nutrient management plans that are expected to succeed might fail given any particular year’s weather. Incorporating fieldwork days information into nutrient management plans can make them more robust to uncertain weather conditions. The USDA publishes the number of fieldwork days for different crop reporting districts within states. These data are from field reporters who provide their opinion on the number of days that were available for farmers to conduct fieldwork such as disking, planting and harvesting. USDA Fieldwork Days data cover the growing season (approximately April to December). Estimates of fieldwork days do not exist for the non-growing season (approximately December to April). However, certain states have agricultural weather station networks that collect soil temperature and other critical information that can be used to estimate the number of fieldwork days that exist for manure application within regulatory limits. This project integrates fieldwork days from the USDA Fieldwork Days data with the Missouri Agricultural Weather Station Network winter soil temperature and precipitation data for the corresponding crop reporting district. This compiled database gives a complete year of fieldwork day estimates. The data are used in a model that allows nutrient management planners to incorporate climatological impacts into their land application plans. Users specify their equipment complement and size, quantity of manure, and desired beginning and ending dates. The model reports output in a cumulative distribution function that estimates the probability of completing fieldwork within the specified parameters and a sensitivity table of ending dates.
Transcript of Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
Integrating ProbableField Work Days into Nutrient Management PlansJohn Lory, Ray Massey and Pat GuinanUniversity of Missouri
Feasibility of plansAre we doing our job?
Fieldwork Days Database
April through November USDA data – ▪ Reporters’ opinion of soil conditions allowing
equipment into the field▪ Reported as “days per week”▪ Over 30 years of data▪ http
://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Missouri/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/
Probability tool originally developed for Missouri. Work to expand to IA, IL, and KS.
NW Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
NC Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
NE Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
WC Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
C Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
EC Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
SW Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
SC Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
SE Missouri Field Workdays
Mar
27
Apr 1
0
Apr 2
4
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul 0
3
Jul 1
7
Jul 3
1
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct 0
9
Oct 2
3
Nov 0
6
Nov 2
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Days p
er
week
Key Inputs for Hours Needed – Spreaders & Tankers
Equipment Inputs to Estimate Application Time Capacity of spreader/tanker Application width Application travel speed Applicator discharge rate
Travel time Infield travel time Road travel time
Applicator load time
Key Inputs for Hours Needed – Spreaders & Tankers
Key Inputs for Hours Needed – Spreaders & Tankers
Poultry Litter Example
Key Inputs for Hours Needed – Spreaders & Tankers
Equipment Inputs to Estimate Application Time Capacity of spreader/tanker Application width Application travel speed Applicator discharge rate
Travel time Infield travel time Road travel time
Applicator load time
Tanker-Injection: Corn
4,800 Grow-Finish Operation Generates enough manure to provide N for 400 acres of
corn. Application rate 175 lbs N/A (4,375 gal/A) Fields average 1 mile from barn
Land Application Equipment 6000 gallon tanker 15-foot swath injector Travel speeds:
▪ Road: 10 mph▪ In field, not applying: 7 mph▪ In field, applying: 3.4 mph (requires 450 gal/min discharge rate)▪ Loading time: 10 minutes/load
Application time estimate: 200 hours Application efficiency estimate: 0.36
Tanker-Injection: Corn
Scenario 1 Northwest Missouri Apply in April Run tanker up to 12 hours per day, 6 days per week
Need 200 hours
Analysis Mean:
130 hours fieldwork in April
12 % probability of success00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Pro
bab
lity
of C
om
ple
tion
Hours Available
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Pro
bab
lity
of C
om
ple
tion
Hours Available
Tanker-Injection: Corn
Solution 1 (need 200 hrs): Expand application to May (Apply April to June 2 (2 months))
Mean: 305 hours fieldwork in April-May
87% probability of success
April-May
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Pro
bab
lity
of C
om
ple
tion
Hours Available
Tanker-Injection: Corn
Solution 2: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank
(road time goes to zero) Need 130 hours
Mean: 130 hours fieldwork in April
53% probability of success
April
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Pro
bab
lity
of C
om
ple
tion
Hours Available
Tanker-Injection: Corn
Solution 3: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank
(road time goes to zero) Apply April to June 2 (2 months) Need 130 hours
Mean: 305 hours fieldwork in April plus May
April 1 – June 296% chance of success
April - May
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Pro
bab
lity
of C
om
ple
tion
Hours Available
Tanker-Injection: Corn
Solution 4: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank
(road time goes to zero) Move 33% of application to fall
Need 130 hours.
86 hours April71 % chance of success
44 hours from Nov. 18 -3080% chance of success in Nov.
April
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
0 20 40 60 80 100
Pro
bab
lity
of C
om
ple
tion
Hours Available
Nov. 18-30
Tanker Injection:Sensitivity to 20% change
Field Dis-
tance (-)
Swath Width
(+)
Tanker size (+)
Road Travel Speed
(+)
Field Travel Speed
(+)
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Base20% change
Hou
rs t
o c
over
40
0 a
cre
s
Field distance: 1.0 to 0.8 miles Tanker size: 6000 to 7200 gal. Field travel speed: 7.0 to 8.4 mphSwath width: 15 to 18 feet Road travel speed: 10 to 12 mph
Looking to the future Expand to other states Integrate into nutrient management reporting
software Quantitative approach for April - November
Fieldwork Days December to April
Not covered by the Fieldwork database Factors to consider
Soil temperature below 32oF (frozen soils) Snow cover Precipitation Saturated soils
Probability of Frozen Soils
Jan-
01
Jan-
25
Feb-
18
Mar
-13
Apr-0
6
Apr-3
0
May
-24
Jun-
17
Jul-1
1
Aug-
04
Aug-
28
Sep-
21
Oct-1
5
Nov-0
8
Dec-0
2
Dec-2
60
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
Albany South Farm Lamar
Fra
cti
on
of
days s
oils a
re <
3
2oF o
n t
hat
day o
f t
he
year
Days with 2-inch Soil Temperature Under Bare Conditions Greater than 32oF(December 1 to April 1: 120 days possible)
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1200.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Lamar Novelty South Farm
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f su
ccess
Days wanted
EditorialCritical to
integrate the concept of risk into nutrient management decisions.
http://swine.missouri.edu/swine/PDFM.xls
Questions?
